NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028900010036-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: May 21, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday May 21, 1976 CI NIDC 76-12.QL
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday May 21, 1976.
The NID Cable is for the purpose
of informing senior US officials.
I _J Leaders of Syria's Baath Party have been meeting
t is wee in Damascus, apparently to review Syrian strategy
in Lebanon. President Asad presumably will elicit a statement
of support from the group in an effort to counter increasing
domestic criticism of his actions in Lebanon.
I The unusual joint meeting of the party's Syrian
and international leadership could also be called upon to
approve more extensive Syrian involvement in Lebanon. Asad
almost always seeks prior approval of major decisions from
the party's governing bodies, even though he is head of the
party and has been able to win almost automatic endorsement
of his recommendations.
Asad needs an expression of party support at this
time. Demonstrations against Syria's role in Lebanon have
occurred recently in several areas of the country and
among all the principal ethnic groups. Arab students in
Europe have staged protests at some Syrian embassies.
I The recent increase in the protests appears to have
resulted from heavy casualties suffered by Syrian-controlled
troops in the serious fighting in Tripoli early last week. In
at least one Palestinian camp, there was a violent anti-govern-
ment demonstration and an attack on a Baath Party office.
Those Syrians who have not actively protested presum-
ably are nevertheless unhappy with the economic problems asso-
ciated with the Lebanon campaign--many basic commodities are now
scarce or available only at inflated prices--and share the
feeling that Asad is protecting the Lebanese Christians
against justifiable demands for change from Lebanese Muslims
and leftists.
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disaffection is especially
widespread among Syria's Druze population as a result of
Asad's attacks on Lebanese leftist and Druze leader Kamal
Jumblatt.
//Security forces in Syria have responded to
the growing unrest by arresting large numbers of civilians
and lesser numbers of government officials and military offi-
cers. Several hundred persons may have been detained over the
past few weeks; many, apparently, have subsequently been cleared
and released.//
//These detentions reportedly have been directed
primarily at leftists within Syria, mostly followers of
former strongman Salah Jadid. They will diminish further the
already limited threat to Asad from the left, but probably
will do little to minimize potentially more serious opposition
from moderate and right-wing groups that claim to have supporters
in the regular Syrian army.//
Asad late last week highlighted the seriousness with
which he views the morale problems among Syrian forces by
dispatching to Lebanon units of his elite 20,000-man Defense
Companies. This special force is composed largely of troops
drawn from minority religious groups, and can be expected to
be less critical of the Syrian role in Lebanon than regular
army units with a high proportion of Sunni Muslims.
Commanded by Asad's brother Rifaat, the Defense
Companies are the country's best armed and most trusted troops.
They are charged with protecting the regime against potential
attacks by disloyal army units. F_ I 25X1
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Fighting fell off sharply in Beirut yesterday despite
leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt's denials that the leftists have
agreed to a cease-fire. Jumblatt indicated that he and his allies
were studying a proposal made on Wednesday by president-elect
Sarkis that apparently would reopen negotiations for a political
settlement to the Lebanese civil war.
Sarkis' proposal reportedly includes provision for:
--A temporary truce, renewable on a 48-hour basis.
--The resignation of President Franjiyah after the truce
takes hold.
--Roundtable negotiations that will include all parties
to the conflict.
--An agreement linking the withdrawal of Syrian troops to
the "state of security."
//A senior Syrian military officer recently told
the US defense attache in Damascus that Syria has been promoting
the idea of roundtable discussions.//
//The Syrian officer emphasized, however, that
Syria's immediate objective is a cease-fire, not negotiations
or Franjiyah's resignation. He implied that Syria is prepared
to enforce such a cease-fire.//
//Although the Christians have allowed Syr-
ians and Palestinians to patrol disputed areas during previous
cease-fires, they have always refused to allow them to enter
Christian areas.//
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Palestine Liberation organization leader Yasir Arafat
went to Damascus again yesterday, reportedly to discuss with
Syrian leaders the holding of Lebanese roundtable discussions.
Presumably, he will also try to paper over the dispute that has
developed between him and Asad.
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The special security zone created by South
African authorities earlier this month in northern Namibia
has been extended to cover the entire length of the
Namibia-Angola border.
The 1-kilometer-wide (.6-mile) zone, from which
all villagers will be removed, is in effect a no-man's land
designed to facilitate counterinsurgent operations by the
South African military. South African spokesmen are
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justifying the extension of the zone by citing an in-
crease in guerrilla operations by the South-West Africa
People's Organization, the Namibian nationalist organization.
The South Africans say there have been more than
60 separate terrorist acts by these insurgents since last
July and that at least 29 persons, including eight South
African soldiers, have been killed. The South Africans believe
that the guerrillas are being trained in southern Angola by
Cuban troops. SWAPO guerrillas have been active in southern
Angola, but we are uncertain about their relations with the
Cubans stationed in Angola.
I There has been some increase recently in
terrorist activities in northern Namibia, but the extension
of the security zone seems conveniently timed to influence the
current debate in the South African parliament over new
stringent security measures proposed by the Vorster
government.
I The proposed measures have sparked some public
opposition and the government may hope the new security
zone will dramatize the external threat to South Africa and
ease passage of its controversial new measures.
Algiers is renewing its efforts to keep the UN in-
volved in Algeria's dispute with Morocco and Mauritania over
Western Sahara.
In a letter this week to Secretary General Waldheim,
Algerian Foreign Minister Bouteflika belatedly charged that
the agreement Rabat and Nouakchott signed on April 14 to
partition the disputed territory was an illegal act that
violated the UN Charter. He reiterated Algiers' demand for a
UN-supervised referendum on self-determination for Western
Sahara.
Algeria's response at this time to the partition
announcement may be designed in part to enhance the impact
of a forthcoming report by a UN envoy who visited Spain and
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Algeria in early April. During his stay in Algeria, the
envoy met leaders of the Polisario Front, which is seeking
independence for the territory, and inspected Saharan refugee
camps. The envoy had planned to visit Morocco and Mauritania
as well, but both countries refused to receive him after
his activities in Algeria.
Algiers' letter is unlikely to advance its case at
the UN. The Algerians have had little success lining up diplo-
matic support for their position in the Sahara dispute or for
the new Polisario "state" created last February. Only eight
other African states and North Korea have extended diplomatic
recognition to the Polisarios.
Bouteflika's letter was moderate by Algerian stand-
ards. While Rabat and Nouakchott were once again accused of
threatening the peace and security of the region, Algiers
did not call for a Security Council meeting nor threaten any
retaliatory action.
Algeria continues to provide the Polisario Front with
political support and military supplies, but it seems to
have decided to back a long-term guerrilla struggle and to
be trying to avoid any direct clashes with the Moroccans.
I I Moroccan forces continue to be harassed by
o isario guerrillas, despite the military operation last month
designed to clean out the remaining pockets of Polisario
resistance in Western Sahara. //A curfew for civilians has been
imposed and the Moroccans are attempting to force the nomads
into settled areas and to control all food supplies.//
Guerrilla infiltration into Western Sahara continues,
apparent y with the support of the local population. To
counter this infiltration and stop the flow of refugees to
Algeria, Morocco's new southern zone commander, Colonel
Britel, reportedly has proposed the establishment of a no-man's
land approximately 30 kilometers (18 miles) wide along the
entire eastern frontier of Morocco's portion of the Sahara.
According to the US defense attache in Rabat, the
Moroccan military is suffering from low morale and could
become disenchanted with the regime's Saharan policy. The
troops stationed in the south are said to be disgruntled by
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the lack of leave and inadequate food rations. Continued
hit-and-run guerrilla attacks, even after several massive
sweep and clear operations, have undoubtedly contributed to
military frustrations.
The Mauritanians, for their part, are concerned by
recent Polisario attacks on three towns in northern Mauritania.
The US embassy in Nouakchott has reported a substantial in-
crease of night security patrols in the capital during the
past week. The increased security precautions suggest genuine
concern, at least on the part of some officials, that Polisario
forces have the capability to launch sapper attacks on Nouak-
chott.
The multilateral aid fund for African development that
French President Giscard proposed during the recent Franco-
African summit reflects his desire to reinforce French--and
Western--influence in Africa.
In a speech to the summit on May 11, Giscard called
for programs to open up landlocked countries by road and rail,
fight drought, spread modern agricultural techniques, and ex-
ploit mineral resources. He did not specify the size of the
fund, the members, how contributions should be made, or how it
would relate to other aid institutions.
I IThe French were nevertheless especially anxious in the.
wake of events in Angola to show the moderate Africans that the
West is still interested in Africa and that France, in particu-
lar, values its ties there. The Quai had been studying various
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proposals that might be made during the summit, and after his
meeting with Secretary Kissinger on May 7, Giscard ordered the
fund proposal added to his speech.
The proposal is in keeping with the evaluation of
Franco-African relationships that Paris began in the early
1970s. As France's interest in expanding its influence into
the non-Francophone states grew and the available funding de-
clined, Paris realized that the burden of maintaining its spe-
cial relationship with French Africa had become too costly.
Giscard's aid proposal at the summit received the
positive response he wanted, but implementation may be slow.
Even key French ministries that would be involved in the program
lack details on Giscard's plan and have been unable to answer
the technical questions US embassy officers have raised.
Past inquiries have also revealed sharp differences
of view on aid to Africa that will probably have to be resolved
by the President himself. While one Quai official recently said,
for example, that France will contribute about $25 million to
the African Solidarity Fund and about $17 million to the African
Development Fund, a finance ministry spokesman subsequently im-
plied that his traditionally conservative ministry is holding
out for lesser commitments.
There may also be interministerial disagreements on
who should get aid and what conditions should be attached. The
Quai official implied as much in saying his ministry believes
the new aid funds should be given not only to France's "faithful
friends," such as the Ivory Coast and Senegal, but also to others
like Tanzania and Zambia. The aid should not be blatantly politi-
cal, he said, but the Quai hopes that French aid would be a
counterweight to "other"--i.e., Communist--influence, and open
doors for France to English-speaking Africa.
In addition to reconciling his own ministries, Giscard
will have to soothe some of his European Community partners who
resent the lack of prior consultation on a proposal he discussed
with Secretary Kissinger. According to the Quai officer, France
plans further talks with US and European officials, and possibly
with Canada and Japan.
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Ankara released yesterday Prime Minister Demirel's
response to Greek Prime Minister Caramanlis' call a month ago
for a non-aggression pact. Demirel said he was open to further
contact on the Greek proposal, but expressed reservations about
the need for a non-aggression pact between allies.
Demirel proposed that the Greek and Turkish foreign
ministers meet at the NATO conference in Oslo to begin discus-
sions on a wide range of issues.
Although neither side appears willing at this time
to make the concessions necessary to resolve their dispute over
control of resources in the Aegean Sea or to break the impasse
in the Cyprus talks, the session in Oslo and the talks tenta-
tively scheduled for Bern next month on the Aegean problem
could serve to lower tensions between the two countries. 25X1
F__ I
I Pakistan's Prime Minister Bhutto arrives in North
Korea to ay for a six-day stay, after which he plans to spend
five days in China.
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This is Bhutto's first trip to North Korea. He has
frequently visited China, most recently in May 1974.
hutto's activities in North Korea reportedly will
be mostly ceremonial; the schedule includes only 90 minutes
for substantive talks. North Korea has been interested for
some time in a visit by the Pakistani leader as part of its
campaign to enhance its standing in the third world. Bhutto
apparently felt he could most easily respond by combining trips
to Peking and Pyongyang.
The North Koreans will probably urge Bhutto to alter
Pakistan's neutral stance on the Korean question in the UN, but
he is unlikely to agree. His government, which has full diplo-
matic relations with Pyongyang but only consular ties with Seoul,
sees its present position toward the Koreas as one that helps
it maintain good relations with China and the nonaligned
countries while not antagonizing Washington.
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Senior military officers in Bhutto's delegation may
discuss new arms purchases with North Korean officials. Pyong-
yang has sold artillery, small arms, and ammunition to Pakistan.
The delegation probably will also discuss
arms acquisitions in Peking. China has long been a major donor
of military equipment to Pakistan. 25X1
Bhutto and the Chinese leaders will emphasize their
mutual interest in containing Soviet influence in Asia. The
Chinese undoubtedly will seek to reassure Bhutto that Sino-
Pakistani relations will not be adversely affected by the re-
cent modest improvement in Peking's relations with New Delhi.
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I Italy's political parties this week completed their
candidate lists for the parliamentary election on June 20 and
are set to begin active campaigning.
All of the major parties have sought to broaden their
appeal by including more fresh faces on their lists. The Commu-
nists appear to be ahead of the other parties in this respect,
although the Christian Democrats have had some success in at-
tracting new candidates.
The Communists hope that the large number of non-party
members among their candidates--about 10 percent of their
slate--will limit the ability of the Christian Democrats to
exploit uncertainty about whether the Communists will adhere
to their pragmatic line stressing independence from Moscow if
admitted to the government.
The latest independent to join the Communist slate is
EC commissioner Altiero Spinelli, who has been active in the
West European unification movement throughout the postwar period.
The Communists are sure to play up the presence on
their tic et of another prominent independent, retired air
force general Nino Pasti. Pasti, who held important posts in
both the Italian armed forces and NATO prior to his retirement
seven years ago, has reportedly said that he accepts the Com-
munist Party's assertion that it is democratic and its commit-
ment to support Italian membership in NATO as long as the War-
saw Pact continues to exist.
The most prestigious addition to the Christian Demo-
cratic slate is Umberto Agnelli, managing director of Fiat and
brother of Fiat chairman Giovanni Agnelli. Agnelli is running
in Rome rather than in his home region of Piedmont because a
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left-wing Christian Democratic leader objected that Agnelli's
presence on the ticket in Piedmont would harm the party's rela-
tions with organized labor in the heavily industrialized north-
ern region.
ontroversy continues over Communist leader Berlin-
guer's proposal last week for a post-election emergency govern-
ment embracing all parties except the neo-fascists. The
Christian Democrats yesterday reiterated their rejection of
the idea.
The Socialist Party is still at odds internally over
policy toward the Communists. Most Socialists agree that the
Communists should have some role after the election but differ
over the degree and form of Communist involvement. The need to
respond to Berlinguer's proposal is making it difficult for
the Socialists to continue papering over internal differences
by holding all post-election options open.
According to Reuter, a Chinese foreign ministry spokes-
man today labeled as "utter nonsense" foreign press reports
that Mao is dead or dying.
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