CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028900010042-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 23, 2009
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: May 25, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday May 25, 1976.
The NID Cable is for the purpose of inform-
ing senior US officials.
Yesterday in Moscow the Soviets told the military at-
taches of states that signed the Helsinki agreement that an air
and ground force exercise involving about 25,000 troops will be
held from June 14 to 18 in the Leningrad Military District close
to the Finnish border. The announcement was made 21 days in ad-
vance--in compliance with the time provision of the Helsinki
agreement.
This is the second exercise for which the Soviets have
given advanced notification since the signing of the Helsinki
accord last summer. An exercise in the Transcaucasus Military
District was announced in January and observers from Greece,
Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia were invited. Accord-
ing to the Soviet defense ministry spokesman, observers from
selected states will be receiving invitations within the next
week for the exercise in June.
The maneuvers were announced on Soviet television Sun-
day evening and an item appeared in Pravda yesterday. The Pravda
article named three cities in the area in which the maneuvers
will take place--Petrozavodsk, Vyborg, and Sestroretsk. An army
headquarters is located at Petrozavodsk, a motorized rifle divi-
sion and a corps headquarters are at Vyborg, and a tank division
is near Sestroretsk.
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Philippine President Marcos is scheduled to arrive in
Moscow next Monday for a five-day visit. The trip is part of
Marcos' effort to broaden the Philippines' foreign relations and
markets and end Manila's reputation as a client of the US. He
will establish diplomatic relations with the USSR during the
visit and sign a trade agreement.
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Marcos had intended to visit Moscow late last summer
to balance a journey he made last June to Peking, but postponed
his trip when Moscow was unwilling to guarantee a meeting with
Brezhnev. Marcos places a high value on his visits abroad for
strengthening his prestige at home; he expects to meet with
Brezhnev and other top Soviet leaders.
//Marcos will also explore Soviet attitudes to-
ward the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. In the last
year or so, Soviet propaganda has been more positive about ASEAN,
but Moscow echoed Vietnamese accusations at the time of the Bali
summit in February that the association is a US-sponsored mili-
tary alliance.//
//Philippine security officials are a
sive about the opening of a Soviet mission in Manila.
Fighting broke out in several areas of Lebanon yester-
day, but the informal truce generally is holding.
The heaviest clashes occurred in the mountains east of
Beirut, where leftist forces apparently tightened their encircle-
ment of the Christian city of Zahlah. Although most areas of Bei-
rut have remained relatively quiet, Christian and leftist gunmen
have resumed artillery exchanges in the city's port district.
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The renewed fighting will add to pressures on presi-
dent-elect Sarkis to come up with a formula for negotiations
before the de facto cease-fire collapses completely.
//A meeting taking place in Santiago of military
chiefs from Peru, Chile, and Bolivia may pave the way for im-
proved relations between Peru and Chile, which were strained
again recently by a buildup of Peruvian forces near the Chilean
border.//
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//The delivery of Soviet tanks and track-mounted
antiaircraft weapons to newly constructed bases in southern
Peru had raised concern in the Chilean military over Lima's in-
tentions.//
//Chile will welcome measures to prevent accidental
border clashes with Peru, but Chilean leaders are likely to con-
tinue to view Peru's long-range intentions with suspicion, par-
ticularly while Peruvian forces remain heavily concentrated in
In line with its policy to reduce government spending,
Argentina's military junta is slowing down the country's costly
nuclear power program.
The Peronist regime planned to have 2,700 megawatts of
nuclear capacity by 1985--the 320-megawatt plant already in op-
eration at Atucha and four 600-megawatt plants. The new schedule
calls only for completing the Atucha plant and two of the 600-
megawatt plants by that date.
The scaled-down nuclear program will still strain Ar-
gentina's precarious finances even though payments will be
spread over several years. Costs of the first 600 megawatt power
plant, now under construction, have increased from $450 million
to more than $600 million. Three more such plants would total
at least $1.8 billion.
The expenditure of some $50 to $70 million for ex-
ploitation of new uranium deposits and at least $200 million for
heavy water facilities would push the cost of the entire program
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to $2.6 billion. This does not include auxiliary installations
planned for the next three to six years. Foreign exchange cred-
its, which could make up one third of the total cost, will in-
crease the already heavy foreign debt load.
The Greek government yesterday tried to break up a
48-hour strike called by militant trade unionists to prevent
the passage by parliament of a new labor law.
Government spokesmen condemned the strike, charging
that it undermined democracy by creating a climate of anarchy.
Communications and air transport workers were conscripted to
reduce the impact of the walkout. Police banned a planned march
by protesters in Athens.
The strike is the first major labor unrest since
Greece returned to democratic government in 1974. It was called
by leftist-dominated unions backed by the opposition parties to
protest provisions in the new bill prohibiting political and
wildcat strikes. The principal Greek labor confederation urged
its members to ignore the strike, but at least a hundred thou-
sand workers walked off the job.
At the confederation's request, the government had
earlier modified some of the provisions in the bill that are
aimed at deterring the type of leftist-inspired labor unrest
that sparked the military intervention in 1967.
A Soviet air force regiment in Czechoslovakia has
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tense attache saw two o the combat-training version of the air-
craft land at Milovice airfield northeast of Prague.
Delivery of the MIG-23 probably began in April
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France will attempt to use a conference, scheduled to
begin in Paris today, to convince rival political groups in the
French Territory of the Afars and Issas to form a coalition gov-
ernment. Chances of success are slim.
The French hope an accommodation will improve the ter-
ritory's chances of a peaceful transition to independence. Paris
has indicated it plans to hold a referendum on the independence
question this year, with independence probably coming in early
1977.
When Paris announced last December that it would grant
independence to the FTAI, France hoped to transfer power to Ali
Aref Bourhan, the pro-French head of the territorial government.
Aref's declining political fortunes--he has only a bare majority
in the local assembly--and the growing strength of the opposition
African People's Independence League have forced France to re-
vise its policy.
France can now expect little cooperation from either
Aret or the League. Aref is bitter because the French are no
longer willing to give him their complete support. The League
representatives are sure to press their advantage and demand
that Paris abandon Aref and recognize the League as the legit-
imate representative of the territory.
Paris probably views a coalition as a way of allowing
France quietly to cut its ties to Aref without abruptly abandon-
ing him. The French have probably concluded that it is only a
matter of time before the League achieves power in the FTAI.
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These developments are likely to facilitate Somalia's
annexation of the territory. Although League president Hassan
Gouled is regarded as a nationalist who favors independence for
the territory, he has accepted Somali support and is cooperating
with the Front for the Liberation of the Somali Coast, which is
based in and controlled by Somalia.
The French say they have invited the Front to attend
the Paris conference, but the Front says it has not received
an invitation and that the talks cannot succeed without its
participation.
Distrust between Ethiopia and France also benefits
Somalia. Addis Ababa had hoped to work closely with Paris to
prevent Somalia from gaining control of the territory._
For its part, Paris appears to have written off Addis
Ababa as a source of support for an independent FTAI because
Ethiopia is preoccupied with domestic strife.
The chances that the Organization of African Unity
will provide guarantees for the FTAI's territorial integrity
after it becomes independent also appear slim. The Egyptian
chairman of an OAU fact-finding committee that visited Ethiopia,
Somalia, and the FTAI in late April and early May recently indi-
cated to US embassy officers in Cairo that the mission is unlikely
to propose OAU guarantees or any OAU action on the FTAI issue.
The Egyptian official said the committee found Somalia's
position "unbending." Somalia refused to give a unilateral guar-
antee of the FTAI's integrity on the grounds that an OAU or UN
commitment would be sufficiently binding on Somalia. The offi-
cial also said that the Arab League is deferring to the OAU on
the FTAI question.
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