NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029000010028-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: June 16, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
CIA-RDP79T00975A0290NV!F8--ret
'' uu y
(Security Classification
Wednesday June 16, 1976 CI NIDC 76-141C
DIA review(s) completed.
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
MEMMIMM&
Top Secret 25X1
(Security Classification
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday June 16, 1976.
T e NID Ca e is for t o purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
Syrian forces yesterday pushed deeper into Palestinian-
controlled areas of southern Lebanon and may have captured the
town of Marj Uyun, a fedayeen staging area some 10 kilometers
(6 miles) from the northeastern border of Israel. A Syrian col-
umn is said to have advanced to within 4 kilometers (2.5 miles)
of the border.
Syrian Strategy
I The new Syrian drive is consistent with a strategy
aimed at isolating and blockading the Palestinians in Sidon and
Beirut and preventing them from getting supplies from elsewhere
in the south.
Syrian penetration into areas in the south where the
Palestinians have been operating freely for years serves other
purposes. One of Syria's main goals is to neutralize the Pales-
tinian and Lebanese Arab Army forces that control the major
towns and to secure supply depots and arms caches. The Syrians
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may also be anxious to prevent Palestinian units in the area
from launching raids on Israel--a course which, in their current
desperation, the Palestinians might adopt in order to provoke
an Israeli counterreaction against the Syrians.
Finally, the Syrian moves into the south provide a
graphic demonstration to fedayeen leader Yasir Arafat that Pres-
ident Asad is determined to weaken the military power of the
Palestinian forces and their allies and to eliminate any pros-
pect that Arafat might receive substantial aid from other Arab
sources.
I The Syrians probably hope that their strategy of iso-
a ing Ffle Palestinians from the north, east, and now the south,
will force Arafat to accept a truce on Syrian terms without a
costly military showdown in Beirut. President Asad is gambling
that Israel will perceive Syria's moves in the south as neces-
sary to apply additional pressure on Arafat and to prevent at-
tempts by any other Arab states to provide further military sup-
port to the Palestinians.
I I We have as yet received no official Israeli reaction
to the latest Syrian actions. The Israeli government will prob-
ably not consider intervening as long as it remains convinced
that the Syrian operations are aimed against Palestinian and
leftist forces.
Other Syrian Moves
Syrian forces also are blockading Sidon, the southern
approaches to Beirut, and Tripoli in an effort to isolate left-
ist and Palestinian forces in these cities. Military activity
in these areas seems to be confined to sporadic clashes.
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I Christian forces are still seeking to gain ground
against t e Palestinians and leftists in the wake of the Syrian
advance. According to press reports from Beirut, the Christians
yesterday attacked leftist-Palestinian positions at Aynturah and
shelled a Palestinian refugee camp in the Beirut suburbs.
Diplomatic Wheelspinning
On the diplomatic front, Libyan Minister Jallud is
again saying he has secured Syria's agreement to a plan for a
phased withdrawal from Lebanon. According to an announcement by
Jallud yesterday, the first stage of the Syrian pullback will
come only after the proposed Arab League security force has
taken up its positions and would involve a Syrian retreat behind
the mountain passes in central Lebanon and into the north.
The second phase of the withdrawal would await a per-
manent political settlement of the crisis. Jallud, who left for
Damascus yesterday, promised to establish a timetable for the
withdrawal and return to Beirut today.
The Syrians are probably still just playing along with
Jallud's mission to gain time. Syria reportedly has reassured
the lebanese Christians that it has no intention of withdrawing
its forces until after president-elect Sarkis is installed in
office.
Close coordination between the Christians and the Syr-
ians apparently prompted President Franjiyah's qualified accept-
ance yesterday of the Arab League's decision to send a joint
Arab peace-keeping force to Lebanon. During a meeting with League
Secretary General Riyad yesterday, Franjiyah and Interior Minis-
ter Shamun apparently expressed some reservations about the im-
plementation of the League's resolution but--like the Syrians--
gave their agreement in principle to the plan.
The Syrians and the Christians probably calculated
that Christian endorsement of the joint security force will help
delay its actual deployment as Riyad and his delegation try to
meet Christian conditions on the size and disposition of the
force.
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I The USSR has responded to continued Syrian activity
in Lebanon by appearing more responsive to the Palestine Liber-
ation Organization. It also may be trying to place indirect
pressure on the Syrians to disengage.
Last Friday, the USSR announced that the permanent
representative of the PLO had been received in Moscow by offi-
cials of the Soviets' Afro-Asian Solidarity Committee. The es-
tablishment of a PLO office in Moscow had been pending for al-
most two years, and the Soviet decision to permit its opening
now seems to be a calculated move toward the Palestinians.
I I The Soviets continue to avoid direct criticism of
Syria, but now are siding more openly with the PLO in their me-
dia coverage of the fighting in Lebanon. They have even repeated 25X1
a comment by Libyan leader Qadhafi suggesting that the Palestin-
ians are more important than the Syrians.
The Soviets may have tried to use two recent meetings
between Iraqi strongman Saddam Husayn and the Soviet ambassador
to put such pressure on Syrian President Asad. Moscow certainly 25X1
does not want to complicate its problems by encouraging Iraq to
attack Syria, but it could wish to heighten S rian uncertaint
over the security of its eastern flank.
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Exchanges between Italy's political parties are becom-
ing increasingly blunt and bitter as the campaign for the elec-
tion Sunday and Monday enters its final days. The Communists ap-
pear to be making a major last-minute effort to convince waver-
ing voters that the party would not radically alter Italian for-
eign policy. The Christian Democrats are trying to limit the
potential damage from a resurgence of interest in the Lockheed
scandal.
The Christian Democrats are hammering harder than ever
on their basic campaign theme: that Communist accession to power
would damage Italy's Western orientation. The Christian Demo-
crats have abandoned their past tendency to balance this charge
by noting the Communists' "responsible" behavior in some areas
of domestic policy.
For their part, the Communists--who hope to draw the
Christian Democrats into some form of collaboration after the
vote--are now attacking the entire Christian Democratic Party
rather than concentrating on Christian Democratic right-wingers,
such as party president Fanfani. Earlier in the campaign, the
Communists tended to differentiate between the Christian Demo-
cratic right-wing and those on the left who, prior to the cam-
paign, were calling for a "dialogue" with the Communists.
Communist chief Berlinguer, in an interview with the
country's leading newspaper yesterday, implied that he sees NATO
as a way of protecting the Italian Communists from Soviet inter-
ference. Berlinguer said he felt "safer" in NATO than he would
outside of it and suggested that his party would not be able to
pursue an independent path if Italy were aligned with the Soviet
bloc.
J Previously, the Communists have explained their ac-
ceptance of Italian membership in NATO by saying that they fa-
vor the eventual dissolution of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact
but do not want to upset the European balance of power in the
meantime by pulling Italy out of NATO unilaterally.
I IBerlinguer's decision to discuss his differences with
Moscow so explicitly appears to signal a concern on his part
that the Christian Democrats may be making headway in their cam-
paign to raise fears among Italians about the consequences of
voting Communists.
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I I The Lockheed scandal has returned to center stage with
the recent trip to the US by the parliamentary commission inves-
tigating the matter and the allegation that the commission ob-
tained evidence implicating Defense Minister Rumor in the affair.
I I The Christian Democrats had hoped to postpone consid-
eration of the commission's findings until after the election.
Under pressure from the other parties, however, the Christian
Democrats have agreed to hold a meeting of the commission today.
The leftist members of the commission are likely to leak to the
press any evidence damaging to the Christian Democrats.l
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I The situation along the Syrian-Iraqi border remained
essentially unchanged yesterday, although Iraq reportedly is con-
tinuing to move forces toward the border.
The Syrians, meanwhile, have joined in recent days in
a war of words with the Iraqis. On Tuesday the Syrians described
the Iraqi troop movement as intended to undercut Syria's role
in Lebanon and to establish an atmosphere conducive to contin-
uing Iraq's plotting against the Asad government.
Both Syria and Iraq are exploiting the defection on
oncay to Iraq of a Syrian pilot of Palestinian origin. He re-
portedly was flying a MIG-23. Baghdad radio is quoting the pilot
to the effect that Syria's involvement in Lebanon has produced
widespread disaffection in both military and civilian ranks.
The Syrians evidently intend to use the incident to
try to enhance the solidarity of the Syrian officer corps, some
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of whose members have been disturbed by the turn of events in 25X1
Lebanon. Syria, in saying the defection was instigated by some
Palestinian leaders, is trying to depict the Iraqis and Pales-
tinians as partners in an anti-Asad.
//Greek Prime Minister Caramanlis' new tough at-
titude toward the left was evident again in the speech he gave
to Parliament last Saturday.//
Caramanlis warned in his report that the conditions
that prompted the military takeover in 1967 were re-emerging.
He placed blame for a rash of recent strikes and demonstrations
on the Moscow-backed communists and radical leftist.Andreas
Papandreou and declared that the government would clamp down on
any leftist actions that threaten to :Lead to violence. He also
derided the communists for receiving guidance from abroad and
Papandreou for his advocacy of a nonaligned foreign policy.
//The government's position appears to have had
//Papandreou has toned down his attacks against
the governmen , possibly out of concern that the recent implica-
tion of members of his Panhellenic Socialist Movement in gun
smuggling may be used by the government as a pretext to clamp
down on his party's activities.//
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I lArmy chief Eanes' presidential campaign in Portugal
piece up steam last week when he gave a strong performance in
a televised debate among the four candidates. A fifth candidate,
a returnee from Angola, was disqualified last week.
Eanes' front-runner status made him the center of the
debate, and he was a more aggressive and articulate adversary
than the other candidates expected. Prime Minister Azevedo,
whose poorly financed campaign has barely gotten off the ground,
will suffer the most from Eanes' performance. Azevedo was count-
ing on the contrast between the two personalities to put him on
top.
Eanes still cannot be sure that he will win a major-
ity ine first round on June 27. A poll taken two weeks ago
by a respected weekly newspaper showed that Eanes was favored
by 33 percent of the respondents, but nearly 40 percent were
undecided or declined to answer. Although Azevedo and far left
candidate Otelo de Carvalho trailed far behind the front-runner,
the poll showed they both were still slightly better known than
Eanes.
//Some of Eanes' more conservative supporters
are concerne that his political views are being dictated by the
Socialists. The centrist Popular Democrats--who will tacitly sup-
port a Socialist minority government as long as they are given
the opportunity to exercise some influence on policy--were
alarmed by Eanes' recent assertion that a minority government
ceases to be a minority when backed by a popularly elected pres-
ident.//
//The Popular Democrats and the center-right So-
cia Democratic Center still prefer Eanes because of his reputa-
tion as a strong leader. Neither party is likely to withdraw its
endorsement of Eanes.//
I IThe popularity of former security chief Otelo de Car-
vaiho is the most surprising development in the campaign to date.
In a recent poll, Carvalho had more support among those who
voted for the Communists in the April legislative election than
did Octavio Pato the Communist candidate.
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I I The Greek ambassador to NATO has expressed concern
aiDour- e two-day Turkish air exercise that began yesterday over
the Aegean, at a time when the officials from the two countries
are holding talks in Paris to iron out their differences over
airspace rights.
I I Athens believes Turkey is being provocative in sched-
uling an exercise between the Greek mainland and the Island of
Lesbos. The Greeks have said they will "bear no responsibility
for the consequences" if the Turks violate Greek airspace.
The Greeks are irritated because the exercise calls
for Turkish aircraft to fly within the 18.5 kilometers (10 nau-
tical miles) airspace limit set by Athens. Ankara recognizes
only an 11 kilometer (six nautical miles) limit. The ambassador
says Greece's claim to this limit is a matter of principle that
must be repeated in the face of continued Turkish challenges.
Turkey has held other exercises--the most recent from
June 2 to 5--that conformed to its version of the limits of
Greek airspace, but no incidents were reported despite strident
statements by both sides.
I The high command of the Uruguayan armed forces is mov-
ing quickly to restructure the government after President Borda-
berry's ouster last weekend.
I IVice President Alberto Demichelli, an 80-year-old law
protessor, has announced that he will serve as interim president
only two or three months. Then, a newly formed "council of the
nation"--composed of senior military officers, cabinet ministers
and selected civilian leaders--will choose a new chief executive.
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Front runners for the post are Foreign Minister Juan
Carlos Blanco and Economy Minister Alejandro Vegh Villegas. Both
men have done well in their cabinet positions and have managed
to maintain good relations with top military leaders.
The new president, like Bordaberry and Demichelli, will
be a figurehead. Armed forces leaders will rule by issuing "in-
stitutional acts," and they plan to restructure the country's
political system in a step-by-step process over the next eight
to ten years.
The armed forces leaders plan to have a new constitu-
tion drafted and a plebiscite to ratify it. Political parties
and labor unions will gradually be allowed a limited role in
government. Marxist organizations will be excluded.
The reorganization of the political system is an am-
bitious undertaking, particularly for a group of military lead-
ers who have not worked well together in the past.
I I If the reorganization is to progress smoothly, Demi-
chelli s successor will have to accept the fact that he is a
figurehead president. It was the strong-willed Bordaberry's in-
ability to play this role--though at time he appeared to be
trying--that caused his constant squabbling with the generals.
Whoever is selected as chief executive, the country's
conservative foreign and domestic policies will continue in
close step with those of the military governments in neighboring
countries. Relations with the US will remain good.
I There has been almost no public opposition to Borda-
erry s ouster and the military's plans for a new political
structure. The system that is evolving runs counter to the coun-
try's tradition of democratic participation, but most Uruguayans
give higher priority to economic growth and domestic tranquility.
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//Morale among the black members of Rhodesia's se-
curity forces has fallen as a result of increasing casualties
in April and May,
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//The Rhodesian government's effort to control the
insurgents depends heavily on the performance of the black troops.
Blacks currently make up almost two-thirds of the police force
and about half of the army regulars. Most blacks apparently joined
the military to find a job rather than out of loyalty to the
white regime, and some are reportedly uneasy about fighting
against a nationalist insurgent movement.//
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