NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029100010002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 13, 2006
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 1, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Thursday July 1, 1976 CI NIDC 76-154C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, July 1, 1976.
e NIV Cable is for the purpose o informing
senior US officials.
Syria appears to be trying to salvage Libyan Prime
Minister allud's mediation mission in Lebanon, and is giving
the appearance of greater acquiescence in the Arab League's
desire for a joint security force there. Damascus has stepped
up its military offensive, however, and its conciliatory ges-
tures seem to be only a tactical move to head off pressure by
the Arab League foreign ministers for a dilution of its mili-
tary role.
I I The league ministers, in an emergency session in
Cairo last night, passed a resolution calling for a cease-fire
in Beirut to take effect today at 5 a.m. Washington time. They
also created a special committee, consisting of the league's
secretary general and the foreign ministers of Bahrain and
Tunis, to monitor the cease-fire and to draw up a timetable
for implementing earlier league resolutions on Lebanon.
During the past several weeks Damascus has played
along with both Jallud and the League mission in an effort to
buy time and to forestall further Arab political pressure. Both
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missions have provided a facade behind which Syria has minimized
its continued involvement in the fighting and consolidated its
military positions.
In fact, Syria now appears to be pressing its mili-
tary a vantage, and acting more openly in conjunction with the
Christian forces. While the Syrians may temporarily succeed in
mollifying some of their critics, the other Arabs will not be
misled for long. Libyan President Qadhafi, for instance, is
increasingly impatient and may order Jallud to cease his tacit
cooperation with Damascus.
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In Beirut, heavy fighting continued yesterday along
the traditional confrontation lines in the central portion of
the city, the port area, and the vicinity of the airport. Resi-
dential areas in west Beirut were again bombarded as the ex-
change of artillery fire between the eastern and western sec-
tors gradually escalated. The US embassy reports that shortages
of food and water are becoming serious in many areas of the
capital.
We cannot confirm Palestinian charges yesterday that
Syrian forces have joined the Christian offensive in Beirut.
I I The major West European communist leaders at the
European communist party conference reasserted their independ-
ence from Moscow in no-nonsense terms, and implied that Soviet-
style communism is ineffective and no longer a viable model for
Western parties.
I I Italy's Berlinguer said the development of Marxism
a no ept pace with world realities. This theme was repeated
by Spanish party leader Carrillo, who referred to the scientific
approach to socialism as a "kind of mysticism and predestina-
tion," which the movement had outgrown.
.In the course of ritual praise for the Soviet revolu-
tion o 917, Berlinguer noted that it had taken place in par-
ticular historical conditions and was marked by "hardships,
difficulties, and errors."
Berlinguer restated his party's intention to follow
an autonomous line free of foreign interference and "within the
framework" of Italy's alliances--a reference to the party's ac-
ceptance of Italian membership in NATO and the EC.
Berlinguer went on to assert that there could be no
single leading communist party or state. He said that the con-
ference was not a meeting of an international communist body
because "no such body exists and can never exist," either on a
European or world level.
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Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. This reference was made to
illustrate his point that the principle of non-interference in
other parties' affairs does not rule out the right to assess
their theoretical and political stands.
He also recalled the Italian party's criticism of the
to e general concern about the "image of socialism"; he
claimed it served "common ideals" when the French express views
on the divergence of a communist country from these ideals.
This was an obvious effort to Justify the French communist
criticism earlier this year of Soviet treatment of political
dissidents.
French party leader Marchais likewise made reference
line that had helped to prolong the preparatory efforts for
the conference. As far as the French were concerned, he said,
such meetings no longer serve a useful purpose. To emphasize
the French party's adoption of a more independent stance, Mar-
chais reminded the audience that his party had recently dis-
carded the concept of the "dictatorship of the proletariat."
In his statement, Marchais maintained much the same
strong Ty criticizing French President Giscard, Marchais came
down hard on those communist parties in power which--in the
name of peaceful coexistence--cooperate with Western govern-
ments to the detriment of the local party.
After interpreting the "crisis in capitalism" and
strongly worded speech delivered at the conference, underscored
his party's independence from Moscow. He demanded that diver-
sity be accepted, and gave a thinly veiled warning that failure
to do so would result in a schism. Presumably with an eye toward
his party's efforts to win legalization, Carrillo asserted that
full democracy is essential for all "socialist states" and ob-
served that socialism in Western countries would be brought
about by pluralism.
Spanish Communist leader Carrillo, in the most
I Domestic considerations were probably paramount in
Carrillo,,-, call on the Soviets to take the lead in withdrawing
their troops from other countries to hasten the dissolution of
power blocs. Carrillo may have hoped to lend credence to his
statement last year in which he said that the Spanish Commu-
nists would not object to the US military presence in Spain as
long as Soviet troops occupied Czechoslovakia.
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Among the speeches of the East European party leaders,
t ose e ivered by Yugoslav President Tito and Romanian Presi-
dent Ceausescu were, not surprisingly, the most independent.
Tito clearly aimed his message at Moscow by hammering
d n e necessity of different roads to socialism. He stressed
that Yugoslavia opposes any form of interference in the inter-
nal affairs of other parties. In an allusion to Yugoslav-Bul-
garian differences over Macedonia, he asserted that the failure
of Yugoslavia's neighbors to recognize the rights of national
minorities is contrary to human rights and Marxism and under-
mines peace in Europe.
accept Soviet backpeddling on the conference document. He de-
fended "socialist patriotism" and the role of the nation in in-
ternational affairs. In a reference to the Brezhnev Doctrine,
Ceausescu also called for effective safeguards against inter-
ference in Romania's internal affairs. He also advocated the
simultaneous dissolution of military blocs as a means of elimi-
nating suspicion. Like Tito, Ceausescu declared that the in-
evitable differences among parties--read, among others, the
Soviets and Chinese--should be solved in a "principled spirit"
in private bilateral meetings.
Ceausescu made clear that the Romanian party will not
Polish party chief Gierek took a cautious stance in
h s speech and placed more stress on the solidarity of the move-
ment and less on Poland's role in the communist world. He will
make a more important speech tomorrow at Katowice, a key Polish
industrial city.
Not surprisingly, Bulgarian leader Zhivkov gave a
strong, pro-Soviet speech, declaring that a party's attitude
toward the USSR and the Soviet party is the "most reliable
criterion of loyalty" to communism. He condemned anti-Sovietism
and Maoism, stressing that inevitable differences between par-
ties should be resolved in a spirit of "proletarian interna-
tionalism," thereby asserting that the Soviet party is the
first among equals.
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For the first time in five years, Peking marked the
anniversary today of the Communist Party with an editorial pub-
lished in all of China's major publications. The high-level
treatment contrasted with the generally low-key content of the
editorial.
The editorial broke no new ground on the political
campaign criticizing former vice premier Teng Hsiao-ping, and
this suggests that the campaign is at a standstill. There was a
call to continue the criticism of Teng, and others like him in
the party, but it was balanced by a statement that most such
people have corrected their mistakes.
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The editorial concluded on the somewhat defensive
note that the party is "worthy" of leading the country despite
the Teng Hsiao-ping affair and the riots in Peking in early
April. This may reflect the widespread loss of confidence in
the art that as resulted from the recent political turmoil.
//The guerrilla war is beginning to erode the
mora e o odesia's white civilian population,
//So far, however, most whites continue to support
Prime Minister Ian Smith, and the Rhodesian regular army appar-
ently has not been seriously affected by morale problems.//
//Since the attack by insurgents last April on
mororists on the main highway to South Africa and other inci-
dents involving civilians in recent weeks, whites have become
concerned for the first time about travel in Rhodesia. They
now generally avoid driving at night on certain major roads
where guerrilla activity has been reported.//
A sharp decline in tourism has hurt several industries, par-
ticularly the Rhodesian airline.//
//Morale among the reserve forces has reportedly
declined as reservists are called away from their civilian pur-
suits more frequently and for longer periods.//
//During April and May, 1,460 whites emigrated,
t e arges number for a two-month period since the country's
unilateral declaration of independence from Britain in 1965.
The government is actively trying to prevent the exodus of 25X1
young whites due for military call-up. There have been delib-
erate bureaucratic delays in providing tax and police clear-
ances for would-be emigrants to South Africa.
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//French President. Giscard's visit to London last
week was a step toward establishing the "missing link" in the
trilateral relationship between Paris, London, and Bonn essen-
tial to any progress toward European unity.//
//The most important aspects of the visit were the
establishment of a personal working relationship between Gis-
card and Prime Minister Callaghan and the creation of a frame-
work for periodic high-level bilateral meetings. The two sides
agreed that the heads of government and the foreign ministers
will meet annually--and that a number of other ministers will
meet periodically.//
//It is unclear whether the visit brought any ad-
vances on specific Community issues. London believes it made
some impression on Giscard with arguments that any formula for
direct elections to the European Parliament must give adequate
representation to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. An
agreement on direct elections may be reached at the EC summit
later this month.//
//Giscard may have shown some sympathy for British
insistence on special treatment for the UK in the Community's
common fishing policy. Some press accounts suggest that Giscard
may have linked British demands regarding fishing to access by
other Community members to exports of British North Sea oil.//
//The visit completes the institutionalization of
bilateral summit consultations among French, West German, and
British leaders. The French and British respectively have been
holding periodic summits with the Germans since the 1960s.
Chancellor Schmidt saw Callaghan yesterday, and Giscard goes
to Hamburg early next week.//
//Since its inception by de Gaulle and Adenauer,
t e aris- onn link has been an important element in postwar
reconciliation, facilitating discussions on policies affecting
the whole of Western Europe and providing a forum for reconcil-
ing bilateral differences. The British - West German connection
has not been as close, mainly because of the UK's long exclu-
sion from the EC and its consequent lesser involvement in Euro-
pean affairs prior to 1973. Ties between London and Paris had
been in the doldrums since de Gaulle vetoed the UK's applica-
tion to join the EC in the 1960s.//
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//Neither London nor Paris wants to appear to be
trying to set up a new "entente cordiale" aimed against Bonn,
although both probably hope that improved Franco-British rela-
tions will help offset growing West German influence in the
Community.//
//The other Community members may welcome the
creation of a potential counterweight to German influence, but
are mainly concerned that the development of a three-power
"directorate" could relegate them to second-class status.
EC foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday
expressed satisfaction with the results of the economic summit
in Puerto Rico, according to press reports. They regarded the
discussion of the general economic situation in the West as par-
ticularly useful and noted their satisfaction with talks regard-
ing East-West relations and relations with the developing world.
A generally favorable evaluation has also emerged from
press reporting from European capitals. Most commentators say
the summit provided Western leaders with a good opportunity to
work out a general strategy for controlling the economic re-
covery.
The summit was given heavy play in the Italian press.
JIne willingness of other participants to express support for
Italy was noted, as well as the need for Italy to adopt strin-
gent economic austerity measures within the framework of greater
political stability.
West German Chancellor Schmidt's argument that only a
few developing states would benefit from a common fund for raw
materials evoked considerable interest in the German press. Die
Welt noted that the US and West Germany had arrived at a general
consensus on this issue, but that a common approach to develop-
ing countries was left unresolved. Some of the German press has
been critical of Schmidt's attendance on the grounds that it was
an electoral maneuver and because the EC was not represented.
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No post-summit press commentary has yet been received
from the UK or France; nor have we had any reporting on private
official evaluations and reactions. Comment from Canada has been
very limited.
Soviet press coverage has been limited and rather nega-
tive. Its thrust has been that the summit was called to reverse
setbacks at Nairobi and represents just another effort to save
Western economies from those dangers inherent in the capitalist
system. Tass gave a fairly factual presentation of the summit
results, although it did assert a certain lack of enthusiasm on
the part of some non-US participants.
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/Negotiations for Peru's purchase of Soviet
fighter-bombers may be near completion,
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//The purchase, presumably on generous financial
terms, has been in the wind for some months. There have been
unconfirmed reports that the Peruvians are also buying Soviet
surface-to-air missiles.//
//Besides suggesting an increase in the number of
Soviet ec nicians and advisers in Peru in coming months, the
purchases raise serious questions about Lima's intentions in
acquiring sophisticated weaponry far in excess of its defensive
needs.
Chilean President Pinochet announced on Tuesday night
a series of changes in economic: policies intended to win wider
public support for the junta.
I The measures include an 11-percent revaluation of the
peso. T is revaluation, the first for any South American cur-
rency in this decade, comes one day after a major devaluation
in Peru--Chile's traditional Andean rival--and may have been
deliberately timed for added psychological impact.
The measures also include tax reductions and expanded
credit for housing and investment.
//The new policies signal a major change in the
military government's priorities, made possible by the dramatic
improvement in the Chilean balance of payments this year. Pinochet
may also be reacting to complaints, particularly from the air
force, that the government's austerity program exacted too much
sacrifice from the Chilean people.//
The revaluation will stimulate imports. It will effec-
tively reduce prices for imported goods in terms of domestic
currency and further slow inflation, which has been running at
an annual rate of 250 percent so far this year--down from 341
percent in 1975.
I I Since it took power in September 1973, the government
has eva ued the peso by nearly 50 percent more than the infla-
tion rate in order to stimulate exports. In 1975, devaluations--
coupled with import restrictions--contributed to a 30-percent
cutback in imports.
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I I Foreign exchange earnings are rising substantially
this year, primarily because of a recovery in the world copper
market. Export of non-mineral products should also help boost
earnings. Chile is also having better luck in obtaining foreign
capital.
percent permitted by the increased foreign exchange earnings
25X1 this year.
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Ugandan President Amin is again making threatening
gestures toward Kenya.
In a statement yesterday, an Ugandan military spokesman
charged that Kenyan troops crossed into Uganda on Monday, cap-
turing several policemen and destroying a police post. The
spokesman said that Ugandan military forces have been instructed
to counter any "aggression" from Kenya.
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The Kenyans have denied the charges. //They have
told US officials privately that dissident tribesmen attacked
the post.//
//Amin'-s motives and intentions are obscure, al-
though he may suspect that Kenya was involved in the recent at-
tempt on his life. He may want to keep Nairobi on edge and dis-
suade it from supporting other assassination attempts.//
//Should Amin approach Siad, he is almost certain
to be turned down by the Somali. leader. Mogadiscio claims a
large part of Kenya inhabited by ethnic Somalis, but this area
is much less important to Somalia// than the French Territory
of the Afars and Issas, which it hopes to annex when the French
withdraw.
//Although a move against Kenya by Amin cannot be
ruled out, he may be less inclined to take this step without as-
surances of Somali assistance. The ill-disciplined Ugandan army,
which has suffered from Amin's maladministration, is poorly pre-
pared for a foreign adventure.//
I I Iran's 15-year-old Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi will make
an official visit to the USSR early this month. The Shah, who
went to Moscow in late 1974, uses such visits to demonstrate
his interest in keeping relations with the Soviets on an even
keel.
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By sending the Crown Prince this year, the Shah
keeps the focus of the visit on protocol, avoids an encounter
with Soviet leaders, and retains for himself room to maneuver
against Soviet policies in the Middle East and South Asia.
//Iran's long-term distrust of Moscow has been reinforced by
recent Soviet activities in Africa, the Persian Gulf, and the
Indian Ocean.//
Soviet leaders remain troubled by the growing US-Iranian ties
and the influx of US arms and advisers into Iran.//
//In late May, Moscow protested critical speeches
by Iranian officials and articles in the Iranian press implic-
itly linking the USSR with terrorism in Iran.
The
Shah
has seldom attacked Moscow directly because
he recognizes
the
need to preserve a workable political rela-
tionship with
the
Soviets as well as the important economic
links between
the
two countries.
The trip by the Crown Prince is seen by the Shah as a
further step in broadening the international experience of his
young heir. The Crown Prince's exposure to world leaders began
last year when he represented Iran in ceremonies marking the
reopening of the Suez Canal. He has since been the nominal host
for visits to Iran by Crown Prince Hasan of Jordan, King Carlos
of Spain, and various Persian Gulf sheikhs.
Diplomats in Moscow are picking up conflicting indi-
cations of the possibility of a Central Committee plenum this
Some Soviet sources have said that a plenum will be
held during the first week of July; others say that one is not
scheduled for the near future. The rumors follow speculation
this spring that a plenum would be held last month.
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//The rumors are being fed by Foreign Minister
Gromyko's recent postponement for "internal reasons" of his of-
ficial visits to Denmark and Belgium, planned for next week.//
Other officials reportedly plan to be in Moscow early this
month, and Western embassies are finding it difficult to sched-
ule meetings with middle-level officials for the first half of
this month.
On the other hand, Premier Kosygin is expected to
represent the USSR at the annual CEMA heads of government meet-
ing in East Berlin next week.
Earlier rumors that leadership changes will be made
at a plenum continue, but some Soviets deny that a plenum any-
time soon would take such action.
Another frequently mentioned topic for plenum discus-
sion is agriculture. If a plenum is held, it also might discuss
the conference of European communist parties, which ended yes-
terday and was attended by General Secretary Brezhnev.
The appointment last Thursday of Aleksey Vatchenko as
chairman of the presidium of the Ukrainian Supreme Soviet places
an ally of Ukrainian party chief Shcherbitsky and General Secre-
tary Brezhnev in this key post. Vatchenko, previously first sec-
retary in the Dnepropetrovsk region, replaced retiring Ivan
Grushetsky.
Vatchenko's promotion gives Shcherbitsky what he pre-
viously appeared to lack--a loyal supporter in Kiev who is well
placed to qualify for the top republic post should Shcherbitsky
transfer to Moscow.
Because of his close association with Brezhnev,
Shcherbitsky has long been viewed as a strong contender to suc-
ceed him or possibly Premier Kosygin, assuming that he could
get an assignment in Moscow. It seemed unlikely, however, that
he would leave the Ukraine before he had fully secured his
power base there.
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//Moscow has announced that between July 1 and
August 10, part of the Barents Sea will be closed for missile
firings. The restricted area is in a portion of the sea claimed
by both the Soviet Union and Norway.//
//The two countries have been negotiating over
the ispu e continental shelf boundary in the Barents Sea for
nearly two years. The latest series of talks ended last month
without progress, and negotiations are scheduled to resume this
fall. Last September, four SS-7 ICBMs were fired into the dis-
puted part of the Barents Sea in an apparent attempt to influ-
ence the negotiations and assert Moscow's right to use the
area.//
//Moscow would undoubtedly like to exploit the
po en-ia of and gas deposits, but is more interested in es-
tablishing rights to unrestricted use of the strategic sea pas-
sage between Svalbard and Norway. The Soviets are also concerned
that economic development by Norway would involve construction
of oil-drilling platforms and other facilities that could con-
strain Moscow's use of this route.//
I I //Moscow is in the process of dismantling SS-7
au part of the SALT agreement, and three of the nine
SS-7 silos at Olovyannaya have been dismantled. In addition to
possibly increasing Moscow's bargaining leverage with Oslo the
firings are an expeditious means of emptying the silos. 25X1
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