NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029100010010-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 17, 2006
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: July 7, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Wednesday July 7, 1976 CI NIDC 76-158C
State Dept. review completed
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday,
25X1 e NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
I I Lebanese leftist and Palestinian forces intensified
tneir attacks yesterday on Christian villages in the north. The
offensive, which began on Monday, is in retaliation for the con-
tinued Christian assault on Tall Zatar refugee camp outside Bei-
rut and is intended to draw Christian forces away from the be-
leaguered camp.
I The thrust of the Palestinian-leftist attack has been
rough Christian areas populated mainly by Greek Orthodox com-
munities that have generally been spared involvement in the war.
I I The Palestinians said yesterday they had taken the
town o Chekka following a heavy bombardment of the city and
several surrounding villages.
access routes to the larger Christian town of Zagharta--the
home town of President Franjiyah--which may be the ultimate tar-
get of the Palestinian-leftist offensive. Although Za.gharta is
relatively well defended and has withstood numerous attacks from
surrounding Muslim villages, it is located on the periphery of
the Christian core area and could be blockaded.
Chekka is astride one of the few Christian-controlled
Palestinians have attacked Christian areas near Batroun or that
they have advanced as far south as Amchit, the site of the Chris-
tians' major radio station.
We have been unable to confirm press reports that the
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Although Arab League representatives and Libyan Prime
Minister Jallud continue their separate efforts to arrange a
truce, the Palestinian offensive in the north has dampened hopes
for an early resumption of serious negotiations.
Syria apparently hopes that the Palestinians' losses
in Beiru will force them to reconsider Syrian terms. Damascus
doubtless also hopes that Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam, who
made a surprise trip to Moscow on Monday, will be able to elicit
the Soviets' help in pressing Palestinian leaders to accept
Syria's ground rules for negotiations.
I Members of the ultra-conservative Sudanese Ansar reli-
gious sec apparently played a major role in the abortive coup
attempt against President Numayri last Friday and Saturday. The
uprising evidently had substantial Libyan backing, and disaf-
fected western Sudanese tribesmen may also have been involved.
Sudan's close identification with the Sadat government
in Egypt and with Cairo's Middle East negotiating policy probably
is at the root of Libya's intriguing against the Numayri govern-
We have no evidence that any Sudanese military units
were overtly disloyal to Numayri, although some individual mem-
bers of the military may have sided with the rebels.
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The Ansar sect, which has long been at odds with Nu-
mayri, numbers about 3 million members scattered throughout the
central part of the country. We do not know how many adherents
were involved directly in last week's rebellion, but there was
extensive fighting in the capital area and several hundred per-
sons are reported to have been killed. Numayri's success in
fending off the coup was not firmly established until about
midday on Saturday.
I Libyan President Qadhafi almost certainly provided
material support for the plot and may have helped some exiled
Ansar members return to Sudan to help organize the move.
The Numayri regime is exaggerating the numbers of
rebels who came from the outside, however, in its effort to
portray the episode as essentially a Libyan-directed invasion
requiring urgent attention by the UN Security Council.
Numayri, speaking at the Organization of African Unity
summit meeting in Mauritius on Monday, charged that Libya had re-
cruited, trained, and armed more than 2,000 "African mercenaries"
and infiltrated them into Sudan in a year-long operation.
I I Yesterday, Sudan announced it had broken relations with
Libya. Li ya has replied to Sudan's charges by characterizing the
coup attempt as an internal popular upheaval directed against a
"fascist military regime."
The intended beneficiary of the coup attempt was Ansar
leader Sadiq al-Mahdi. He has been living in exile in Libya for
the past few years.
I In his OAU speech, Numayri said a Libyan aircraft flew
over K artoum shortly after the coup effort began last Friday,
carrying a reactionary and religious politician trying to take
power. The statement is being interpreted in Khartoum as a clear 25X1
reference to al-Mahdi.
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Although most of those involved in the coup attempt
apparently have been rooted out, the government has imposed
special security precautions--including a dusk-to-dawn curfew--
which will remain in force for the next few days. A 1,510-man
Sudanese brigade, which has been stationed along the Suez Canal
since the October 1973 Arab-Israeli war, has been airlifted back
to Sudan in Egyptian aircraft.
The latest effort to replace Numayri, who came to power
in , is the most serious since the Communists attempted to
oust him in July 1971. His hold on power will continue to be de-
termined largely by his ability to keep the loyalty of key units
of the armed forces; the armored corps stationed near Khartoum
seems to have saved him this time.
I INumayri has attempted to ensure the military's al-
g ance y //seeking military equipment and// returning to
public life several old associates who are popular with the
army.
On the other hand, the army has smarted under allega-
tions at many of its men were involved in an abortive coup last
September. Moves to censure the army for its reported tardiness
in coming to Numarvi's defense last week could further alienate
the armed forces.
I I The death yesterday of Chinese Politburo member Chu
e as somewhat altered the balance of power in the party leader-
ship. Chu was a highly respected party elder, and his moderate
views probably played an important role in containing the cam-
paign against ousted vice premier Teng Hsiao-ping.
I IDespite his 90 years, //Chu reportedly was out-
spoken in a ense of Teng and scornful of some of the party's
younger, more radical leaders.// Two poems by Chu published in
March implicitly criticized the disunity in the party created
by the campaign against Teng.
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I Chu's death reduces to five the membership of the
Politburo's elite standing committee. Of these, only Defense
Minister Yeh Chien-ying can clearly be counted as a member of
the moderate camp.
Premier Hua Kuo-feng, also a standing committee mem-
ber, has apparently avoided firm factional alliances, although
his policy preferences appear to be generally moderate and he
has been attacked by the left in the past.
I ~] With yet another vacancy at the highest level of the
party-- our standing committee members have died in just 'over a
year--the jockeying for position in anticipation of Chairman Mao's
death is likely to intensify further.
I Chu's funeral should be the occasion for the first
major leadership turnout since the funeral of Chou En-lai in
January. Several officials have not appeared publicly since that,
time. The turnout will be an indication of whether any of Teng's
second-echelon associates have fallen victim to the campaign
against him.
I Moscow may be preparing Soviet citizens for an increase
in ovie or Cuban support for Rhodesian insurgents.
I Pravda called attention last Friday to the increasing
effort;,-." o Prime Minister Ian Smith's administration to counter
growing guerrilla incursions into Rhodesia. The article labeled
as "straightforward military aggression" recent air strikes and
cross-border operations by Rhodesia against Mozambique and Rhode-
sian "diversionary" acts against Zambia.
The newspaper also noted the Rhodesian threats of puni-
tive mi i. ary action against virtually all of the principal
black African states. It attempted to link these threats with
the specter of joint action by Rhodesia and South Africa to sup-
press Rhodesian insurgency.
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I //The impression conveyed to Soviet readers
was that more Soviet military assistance may be required by both
the Rhodesian guerrillas and the states that provide them sanctu- 25X1
ary and support.//
Pravda hinted at "difficulties" within the Rhodesian
liberation movement when it alleged efforts by the Smith admini-
stration to foster dissension and violent struggle among the
various tribal elements.
Despite the article's assertion that such efforts have
not been successful, the references to dissension clearly indi-
cated that the Soviets are not happy with the degree of politi-
cal and military coordination among the various insurgent groups.
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Prime Minister Adolfo Suarez' "fireside chat" to the
Span.i. people last night stressed the need for dialogue and
democracy. It may help break the deadlock in negotiations to
persuade centrist opposition sts to join the new ca.hi Lict.
Suarez pledged to accelerate the pace of political
reforms and invited the opposition to cooperate in the struggle
to achieve a "modern democracy." He made no effort to pander to
the far right.
On the other hand, he made no concrete proposals for
improving or speeding up the government's reform program--leav-
ing that to the new government--and offered no significant con-
cessions to the opposition.
So far, members of Christian and Social Democratic
factions--those groups that have refused to join the opposition
coalition with the Communists?-? -have turned down cabinet posts
pending further assurances about the liberalizing commi_l-.ment of
the new government and its program.
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//The Chinese artillery shelling of a small island
near e inese Nationalist island of Kinmen (Quemoy) last week-
end apparently came in response to Nationalist firing at the same
area several hours earlier.//
//We still do not have sufficient information to
explain fully the military activity that has occurred near the
coast of southern Fukien province for the past two months. It 25X1
is evident, however, that the activity is not yet of a magnitude
that would suggest a Chinese attack on Nationalist territory, a
judgment Nationalist officials have also made.
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Bolivian miners are returning to their jobs after a
ree-wee strike, but the causes of the walkout have not been
resolved and further disruptions could occur.
The miners struck after President Banzer moved troops
against state-owned mines early last month, declared a state of
siege, and arrested scores of union leaders who were demanding
a 266-percent wage increase. The miners have been protesting the
military take-over and demanding the return of their leaders,
the removal of troops, and a 100-percent wage increase.
The US embassy reports that the situation in the min-
ing area is quiet even though some miners remain off the job in
two of the most important mines. The mine workers, insisting
that their strike is continuing, 'lave asked national and foreign
reporters to verify the "real" situation. The government has
refused to allow newsmen to enter the-mining districts. I
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