NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029200010010-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 15, 2004
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: August 6, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
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Friday August 6, 1976
CI NIDC 76-184C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, August 6, 1976.
I The NID Cable is for the purpose o informing
senior US o icials.
LEBANON: Situation Report
TURKEY-GREECE: Aegean
NORTH KOREA: Government Statement
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FTAI: Independence
KUWAIT: Arab Boycott
MALAYSIA-USSR: Aid
CHINA-JAPAN: Submarine Cable
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LEBANON: Situation Report
The cease-fire mediated by the Arab League went into
e .ect yesterday; it seems to be holding everywhere except in
the vicinity of Tall Zatar and the nearby Muslim enclave of
Nabaa. Christian forces launched a major attack on Palestinian-
leftist positions in the area just before the truce was to take
effect, and as of early this morning clashes were continuing.
The Christians claim they overran Nabaa early yester-
day and forced several high-ranking Palestinian and leftist mi-
litia leaders to surrender. The attack apparently caused the
postponement of the Syrian-Palestinian-Lebanese truce committee
meeting scheduled for yesterday and brought militant warnings
from the leftists.
Despite the cancellation of the tripartite meeting,
arrangements for positioning the Arab League forces are still
going forward. According to the truce agreement, League troops
will man observation posts in Jazzin, Alayh, Aynturah, Tripoli,
and in both east and west Beirut. These areas have been the
scene of the heaviest fighting over the past several weeks.
Syrian troops presumably will continue to patrol the Bekaa
Valley.
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by Friday. Under the agreement, they are also charged with open-
ing Beirut airport by August 15 and providing escorts for trav-
elers to and from the airport.
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one of the parties to the truce agreement is
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I According to press reports, Israeli authorities ear-
lier this week detained three suspected Arab guerrillas found
aboard two Lebanon-bound ships that were intercepted in Israeli
territorial waters.
On Monday, an Israeli patrol boat stopped a Lebanese
freighter on its way from Alexandria to Sidon. The boat was re-
leased the next day but one Arab passenger was detained and re-
portedly will stand trial before a military court on charges of
belonging to the radical Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine.
Israeli authorities reportedly insist that they are
only following past practice in searching suspicious foreign
ships found inside Israel's territorial waters. They deny that
they have set up a naval blockade of Lebanon.
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TURKEY-GREECE: Aegean
25X1 Turkish Prime Minister Demirel announced yesterday
that the Turkish research ship Sismik I would begin its second
venture into the Aegean on Thursday evening. The planned area
of operation for the ship increases the chances of a Turkish-
Greek confrontation.
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The Turkish navy notified mariners that during the pe-
riod August 6 to 21, the Sismik I would be in an area that in-
cludes the territory between the Turkish mainland and the Greek
islands of Limnos and Lesbos where both countries have conflict-
ing claims on the oil and mineral resources of the seabed.
The Turkish ship might only skirt the disputed areas
or make only a symbolic incursion to satisfy domestic critics
of the government's Aegean policy.
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A North Korean government statement yesterday attack-
ing alleged US war preparations in South Korea appears intended
to enhance North Korea's position at the approaching nonaligned
summit opening in Colombo on August 16. The North Koreans, who
gained membership only last year, are planning to send a large
contingent and President Kim Il-song probably will head it.
I I The statement--the first at this level directed spe-
cifically at US actions in the south since 1969--rejects the re-
cently renewed US proposal for a four-power conference on Korea.
Characterizing the proposal as "stalling tactics," the statement
reiterates the standard North Korean demand for a unilateral
withdrawal of US forces and the scrapping of the armistice agree-
ment.
I I Since early this spring, North Korean propaganda has
charged almost daily that the US is introducing new weapons into
the south, conducting provocative military exercises, and keep-
ing South Korean armed forces on a war footing. Pyongyang has
warned that these developments have created a "grave situation"
in which "war may break out at any time."
The new government statement repeats these charges and
adds a slightly new twist--alleging that the US and South Korea
have now "completed" war preparations and are ready to "kindle
the fuse of war." Despite its characteristically harsh tone, the
statement does not threaten any new or unusual countermeasures.
/Pyongyang wants the nonaligned conference to is-
sue a political resolution supporting its position on the Korean
issue, and it hopes such a resolution will contain language
branding the US as the major source of tension on the Korean
Peninsula. Pyongyang doubtless calculates that its statement
yesterday will buttress its case.//
I The statement makes no reference to a shooting inci-
en a occurred in the demilitarized zone only a few hours
before it was issued. The incident lasted only a few minutes
and caused no casualties. Reports of random firings across the
demilitarized zone have been frequent in the past but the last
reported exchange of fire between northern and southern troops
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was in 1973. It is possible that the North precipitated the
latest incident in order to give added impact to the government
statement.
in a high state of readiness
zone remain
I IRomanian President Ceausescu seems to be using his
current s ay in the Crimea to put the best possible face on re-
lations with the USSR.
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North Korean armed forces alon the demilitarized
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On August 3, Ceausescu met General Secretary Brezhnev
for cor ial and friendly" talks and reportedly "exchanged
opinions" on the future course of the European security confer-
ence and communism in Europe. According to the Romanian news
agency, they affirmed their determination to unite the "social-
ist bloc" on the basis of "proletarian internationalism" and ex-
pressed satisfaction about their "ever closer unity of views."
The use of the term "proletarian internationalism"--
wnicn otes Soviet leadership of the movement--appears to be
a deliberate sop to Moscow. At home, Ceausescu usually claims,
however, that the term embodies the principle of party indepen-
dence. Ceausescu's visit to Soviet Moldavia the day before he
met Brezhnev--apparently the first by a Romanian chief of state--
was apparently another mutually conciliatory gesture.
Ceausescu's conciliatory tack is in line with Roma-
nia's uncharacteristically good behavior at the recent CEMA min-
isterial meeting. Bucharest's continuing need for raw materials
may be one reason for Ceausescu's tactical accommodation with
Moscow. Recent reporting suggests that the Soviets have not com-
mitted themselves to meet Romanian requests for increased sup-
plies of minerals.
I I There are signs even so that Soviet-Romanian friction
is still close to the surface on the long-standing Moldavian
dispute as well as on other issues. Speaking in Romanian Molda-
via before his Soviet visit, Ceausescu stressed regional achieve-
ments. On his arrival in Soviet Moldavia, however, a Soviet ra-
dio broadcast pointedly celebrated the anniversary of Soviet an-
nexation of two former Romanian territories.
In one speech Ceausescu adroitly mixed his nods to the
Soviets with independent rhetoric and emphasized that the Euro-
pean communist party conference had confirmed the principle of
equality among parties. He asserted that the Romanian party will
consistently act to develop its relations with the Soviet party
and all anti-imperialist forces--implicitly including the Chi-
nese--under the "new unity" based on equal rights. Ceausescu
reasserted Romania's determination to continue its identifica-
tion with the nonaligned and developing world.
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FTAI: Independence
independence to the French Territory of the Afars and Issas,
the only remaining French territory on the African continent.
France yesterday announced a timetable for granting
I A referendum will be held in January and is likely to
recor an overwhelming vote in favor of independence. A constit-
uent assembly will meet six weeks later to draw up a constitu-
tion, and the French Parliament will probably approve the final
transfer of sovereignty by late June.
The announcement of the French plans followed a meet-
ing in Paris between President Giscard and Abdallah Khamil, the
FTAI's new president. Paris declared its intention late last
year to grant independence, but delayed making specific plans
while it attempted to create a coalition among the territory's
rival political groups and to obtain international guarantees
for its independence.
The French have had little success in either endeavor.
I 1ie new y formed government, by increasing the role of the Is-
sas, better reflects the ethnic composition of the territory,
but the main Afar political party refuses to participate.
Neighboring Somalia--which wants to annex the FTAI--
has refused to give firm guarantees that it will respect the
territory's independence, and Paris has been unable to secure
effective guarantees from the Organization of African Unity or
the Arab League.
I France has remained publicly silent on the question
of maintaining a military presence after independence, but
French officials have said privately that Paris is leaning to-
ward a complete military withdrawal. The French are unwilling
to commit themselves unilaterally to maintain peace among the
territory's domestic political groups or between Somalia and
Ethiopia. F7 I
KUWAIT: Arab Boycott
I Kuwait appears to be the major stumbling block to any
forma relaxation of the Arab boycott of Western firms doing
business in Israel.
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25X1 //Kuwait's inflexible position may reflect its
fears of offending the large Palestinian community that makes
up nearly 30 percent of its total 1-million population. Some
Palestinian groups, which generally are politically passive,
have become angered by Syria's military intervention in Leba-
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cancel impending negotiations with Moscow on a hydroelectric
project that was to have been the USSR's first major aid ven-
ture in non-communist Southeast Asia since
of power.
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ecision o ows a series of Malaysian
rebuffs to the Soviets and underscores Moscow's failure in re-
cent years to make much progress in cultivating non-communist
Southeast Asian states.//
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Soviet proposals for increased trade and cultural contacts, a
maritime agreement, a joint fishing venture, a joint shipping
company, and a bunkering installation for Soviet merchant ships.
25X1 I uIn 1973, former prime minister Razak decided in the
interest of Malaysian nonalignment to allow the Soviets to do
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the feasibility study on an $80-million dam project, with the
understanding that the construction contract would also be
awarded to the Soviets.
The feasibility study was completed last year, and
the Soviets have been pressing for an agreement to begin the
project. The hard-sell effort, however, has succeeded only in
irritating the Malaysians.
CHINA-JAPAN: Submarine Cable
I he new
Sino-Japanese oceanic cable system--the longest un ersea-under-
ground cable in the world--will give a malor boost to communi-
nAfinnq between and Ja an
he system will stretch 880 kilometers (550 miles)
between Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, and Shanghai, China. In Ja-
pan, the 480-channel, voice-grade telephone circuit will be in-
terconnected with the rapidly expanding trans-Pacific submarine
cable network which includes a new underwater cable link with
the US mainland via Guam.
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J The Sino-Japanese cable will transmit. telegraphic,
e ex, acsimile, and radio broadcast transmissions as well as
telephone communications, and will supplement the 11 Intelsat
satellite circuits and a small number of high-frequency radio
telephone circuits presently in use between the! two countries.
I The cost of the $22.6 million project was shared
equally y the two countries, but Japanese companies supplied
most of the equipment, training, and technology.
pne of the first
bill agreements concluded between China and. Japan since
diplomatic relations were established in 1972 and allows Japan
to serve as a major international relay center for China's grow-
ing world-wide communications.//
Peking appears to be the major beneficiary. China
has secured an enormous amount of technology from Japan at very
little cost. Moreover, China will be able to prevent Japan and
possibly other nations from linking Taiwan to the cable network.
Peking has refused to link onto any cable that ties into Taiwan,
and with the future operation of the new cable at stake, Japan
is likely to discourage efforts by other nations in the network
to link with Taiwan.
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ARGENTINA: Economy
I I The Argentine: military government, with a trade sur-
plus of 400 million for the first half of 1976, now predicts a
surplus for the year of $800 million to $900 million. In June
the government was forecasting only a $250-million surplus;
still earlier it had projected an export-import balance.
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Recession-induced reduction of demand has created
about half of the surplus. Import estimates have been lowered
from $3.5 billion to $3.1 billion, and export prospects have im-
proved because producers are energetically seeking foreign out-
lets for goods for which domestic demand has dwindled.
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The outlook for a good wheat crop--exports will begin
in November or December--accounts for most of the remainder. Ex-
port estimates have risen from $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion.
extensions of previous loans rather than new credits.
If trade earnings reach the level now predicted, Ar-
gentina may be able to strengthen substantially its foreign ex-
change reserves. It will still need most of the $1 billion re-
cently promised by US and European commercial lenders to pay
its 1976 debt maturities. Many of these credits, however, are
25X1 Gross reserves already have rebounded from $600 mil-
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