NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029200010034-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 15, 2004
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: August 20, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

pplg-@c i&i-
Release-2
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPAR
E REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RI-COM
MENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
CIA-RDP79T00975A0292000~o p4,e c re t
(Security Classification)
25X1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday August 20, 1976 CI NIDC 76-196C
w
1
1
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
& - 0
25X1
rr~~ rApproved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A00185Atv t,~1 - i ati n
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29200010034-0
Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29200010034-0
 25X1
25X1
Approved For
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday August 20, 1976.
25X1
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Situation Report
USSR-JAPAN: Economic Relations
PORTUGAL: Socialists vs Communists
MALTA: Violent Parliamentary Campaign
SOUTH AFRICA: Latest Rioting
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
Page 5
Page 7
25X1
25X1
THAILAND: Protest Rally Planned
Page 8
25X1
Approved For
25X1
 Approved For Ro
LEBANON: Situation Report
The Christians in Lebanon are still delaying the start
of their campaign in the mountains east of Beirut, apparently
hoping that threats will weaken the Palestinians' will to re-
sist.
The Phalanges Party has asked the commander of the
I
Ara eague peacekeeping forces to convey demands that the Pal-
estinians withdraw from their positions in Mount Lebanon, agree
to a timetable for the cessation of hostilities on all fronts,
and accept Syria's conditions for holding a meeting of the four-
party truce committee that was supposed to supervise the imple-
mentation of the Syrian-Palestinian agreement signed in Damascus
on July 29.
The Palestinians are unlikely to accept these demands.
The leftist radio has already issued a statement rejecting Syr-
ia's demand that leftist parties friendly to Syria be repre-
sented in the leftist delegation of the truce committee. Failure
to agree on this issue led to the repeated postponement of a
committee meeting and helped make the Damascus agreement a dead
letter.
I Extreme leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt attempted to
w ip up support at a rally yesterday for what he called "the
decisive battle of the mountains," which he compared to "another
Tall Zatar." This indicates that the extremists are not amenable
to a serious settlement attempt.
A few days ago Syrian forces reportedly entered Ham-
mana near the Beirut-Damascus road---a key supply line for Pales-
tinian forces in the Mount Lebanon area--but later withdrew. The
Syrians presumably wanted to demonstrate the vulnerability of
the Palestinian supply route; they are still positioned near
Hammana and dominate the road.
Approved For Rel
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Re
lease 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A
25X1
25X1
General Secretary Brezhnev's decision last week to
stand in for ailing Premier Kosygin and meet with a group of
Japan's top industrialists underscores the importance the USSR
attaches to its economic relations with Japan.
Brezhnev's action is designed to give a new impetus
to Soviet economic ties with Japan and to elicit additional
Japanese involvement in Siberian development projects. The USSR
may calculate that the Japanese industrialists will be recep-
tive because of their pessimism regarding short-term prospects
for increased Japanese economic dealings with China. Brezhnev
was probably also influenced by Foreign Minister Miyazawa's
harder public line on China, which has improved political rela-
tions between Moscow and Tokyo.
Approved For Rel~ase 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T009754029200010034-0 25X1
 Approved Foil
25X1
I IThe prospects for trade relations are much brighter.
Last year Japanese exports to the Soviet Union reached a record
$1.6 billion, and this year Japanese sales through May were
running some 10 percent about the comparable period last year.
Moreover, despite concern in Tokyo over the size of the USSR's
debt, Japan appears willing to furnish trade credits on a se-
lected basis to purchase Japanese goods. Recently, Tokyo sup-
plied a $450-million credit line to Moscow for six complete
plants.
I iPortuguese Communists on Tuesday warned Prime Min-
ister Soares' Socialist minority government that they will ac-
tively oppose any "anti-worker" legislation.
The party statement strongly reiterates Communist
leader Cunhal's earlier threat to mobilize workers to resist
proposed legislation that would establish some government con-
trol over labor. These remarks were made last week during the
national assembly debate on the Socialist government's program
and were sharply criticized by Soares.
Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975
25X1
 Approved FJr Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AP029200010034-0
determined to break their grip on organized labor, which has
enabled the Communists to frustrate government moves toward
economic reform--particularly those requiring sacrifices by
the workers. Wage curbs and other unpopular measures cannot be
avoided much longer.
The Communists are concerned that the Socialists are
The Socialists have made some headway in diluting
Communist influence in the unions, but overconfidence and phil-
osophical disagreements between Marxist and social democratic
factions have limited the Socialists' effectiveness.
The biggest blunder was made by Marxist strategists
in the Socialist Party who, buoyed by a series of union elec-
tion victories, proposed to hold a congress of all labor un-
ions, both Communist and non-Communist, to discuss reunifica-
tion of the labor movement. They believed the Socialists could
weaken the Communists' stranglehold on labor and eventually
supplant them.
I The Communists, more experienced in organizing and
controlling labor than the neophyte Socialist trade unionists,
have stolen the initiative for the joint congress from the So-
cialists and view it as an opportunity to further consolidate
their hold.
The Socialists are now stalling for time. They say
the congress cannot be held until next year because it might
interfere with local elections, and they are making demands un-
acceptable to the Communists to convince them to abandon plans
for a congress.
Socialist party leaders say they need at least an-
other year to confront the Communists on the labor front. They
realize they may be forced to accept an earlier date since the
congress was their idea, but they hope their delaying tactics
will at least keep labor unrest under control during the first
few months of the new government.
Approved Forl
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Re
MALTA: Violent Parliamentary Campaign
The first round of campaigning for Malta's parliamen-
tary election. on September 17 and 18 was marked by violent
clashes between Prime Minister Mintoff's Labor Party supporters
and the opposition Nationalists. Violence may flare again dur-
ing major party rallies scheduled for the four remaining week-
A mass Labor rally in Valletta marking the final ses-
sion of the outgoing parliament and the official opening of the
new parliament building last weekend quickly turned into a riot
when Labor supporters ransacked several Nationalist Party of-
fices and attempted to demolish the Nationalists' printing
press. Labor Party militants later disrupted Nationalist meet-
ings in outlying areas.
Violence has increased during the last year as ten-
sions have grown between the two parties. Under Mintoff, the
police have been slow and ineffective in dealing with political
violence and have frequently appeared to go easy on Labor in-
stigators.
The election is likely to be close, and the outcome
will hinge largely on Mintoff's ability to persuade voters that
he can continue his nonaligned foreign policy and still attract
enough international financial support to replace the crucial
income Malta will lose after the withdrawal of British forces
in 1979.
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For RefIease 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975Ap29200010034-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29200010034-0
Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29200010034-0
 Approved For
SOUTH AFRICA: Latest Rioting
Racial violence flared in South Africa Wednesday
night-- this time in three black townships outside the city of
Port Elizabeth--resulting in at least 14 deaths by police gun-
fire and 28 wounded. Rioting last week in black townships near
Cape Town left 29 dead.
The latest bloodshed occurred when thousands of adults
joined a march staged by black high school students who had
been demonstrating for several days. Rioting broke out after
the marches were halted by police firing tear gas. The rioting
subsided after midnight and, although some arson and looting
by roving bands continued through the day, yesterday morning
most commuters from the black townships returned to work in
Port Elizabeth.
Police are continuing to jail prominent blacks
throughout South Africa in a campaign aimed at heading off fur-
ther organized violence. So far, at least 60 arrests have been
made since the latest roundup began last week. The arrests may
fuel new unrest among students whose demonstrations have trig-
gered most of South Africa's recent racial violence. Students
are continuing to boycott classes in many localities, and a
high school was burned Wednesday night in Johannesburg's Soweto
township where black violence first erupted last. June- F__
Approved Fo
25X1
25X1
 25X1 Approved For
25X1
25X1
25X1
THAILAND: Protest Rally Planned
25X1
25X1
A Thai government announcement that Field Marshal
Praphat has changed his mind and agreed to leave the country
within seven days apparently has not yet defused the tense
situation in Bangkok. Army and police units in the area are
on full alert.
25X1 Approved For ~elease 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79TO09
 Approved For
An estimated 40,000 demonstrators from student and
labor groups yesterday demanded Praphat's immediate arrest.
Although the crowd was told of Praphat's decision to leave,
student leaders still want to force Praphat to trial and they
plan to hold another rally today. The size and intensity of
the demonstration should be a good indicator of whether the
protests are running out of steam or building into a political
crisis for the Seni government.
25X1
125X1
The Seni government, by delaying Praphat's departure
tor another week, played into the hands of the student organizers,
giving them more time to arouse support. The students see the
Praphat episode as an opportunity to revive their nearly moribund 25X1
political movement.
Approved For
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29200010034-0
Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29200010034-0
 PV AAV AV AW AV AV AW AV AMIF AMIF AV
pproved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29200010034-0
0 Top SQecret '0
(Security Classification)
. 0 0
0
0
0
0
0
: 0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0 Top Secret 0
(Security 'P ssTRa elease 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29200010034-0