NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010010-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 19, 2005
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: September 7, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Tuesday September 7, 1976 CI NIDC 76-210C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, September 7 1976
rThe NID Cable is for the purpose o informing
senior o icials.
LEBANON: Alliance Rumored
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Summit Meeting
EGYPT-LIBYA: Military Situation Report
KOREA: Agreement Reached
CYPRUS-LIBYA: Arab Hijackers
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LEBANON: Alliance Rumored
The announcement this weekend that Syrian President
Asa d, ing Husayn, and Lebanese president-elect Sarkis will meet
in Damascus on September 27--shortly after Sarkis is scheduled
to take office--has led to broad speculation in Beirut that the
three leaders plan to establish some form of alliance. Asad's
invitation to Lebanese Christian leaders and Muslims sympathetic
to Syria to visit Damascus during the coming week has reinforced
the notion that such an agreement is in the offing.
I I We doubt that Asad has done much more than raise the
idea o a closer alliance in his recent meetings with Sarkis
and the King or that Asad sees an alliance as the best way to
end the Lebanese conflict--as some Lebanese officials are sug-
gesting. The visit of Lebanese leaders to Damascus is no doubt
intended to solve the more immediate problem of laying the
groundwork for Sarkis' take-over from President Franjiyah on
September 23.
1 Asad has been talking to Husayn for some time, however,
about ways to develop their economic and military cooperation
into a loose confederation. He might now see Lebanon's inclusion
as a way of justifying Syria's presence in Lebanon and ulti-
mately of strengthening Syria's position against Israel. Husayn
referred obliquely to this possibility early this summer when
he spoke of "building a new reality" with Syria and linked this
to the "national role" Syria is playing in Lebanon.
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25X1 Our evidence does not confirm press accounts of a major
ion of the fighting in Lebanon over the weekend. Although
the Christians are making much of their latest efforts to recap-
ture Christian towns in the Mount Lebanon area, they have made
no new gains on the ground and seem only to have intensified
their artillery fire in the area.
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I Limited clashes continued yesterday in the north near
repo i and in the southern outskirts of Beirut; Syrian forces
based in Jazzin continued to shell Palestinian headquarters in
the nearby village of Rum. None of the activity over the weekend
suggests any of the combatants has launched a major new offen-
sive.
Arab heads of state.
Saturday, decided to postpone the Arab summit until the third
week of October. They probably want to give president-elect
Sarkis time to form his new government before participating in
the meeting and to give League officials in Beirut more time
to try to implement the cease-fire plan before reporting to the
I Arab League representatives, who convened in Cairo on
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SOUTHERN AFRICA: Summit Meeting
//Five southern African presidents and the leaders
of Rhodesian nationalist groups are meeting in Dar es Salaam,
apparently to seek new ways to bring about political unity among
the squabbling nationalists and also to improve their military
potential.//
//Angolan President Neto and Sam Nujoma, leader of
the South-West Africa People's Organization, are also partici-
pating in the Dar es Salaam meetings, indicating that Namibia
is an important subject of the discussions. Past meetings have
included only Nyerere, Machel, Zambian President Kaunda, and
Botswanan President Khama and have focused almost exclusively
on Rhodesia.//
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EGYPT-LIBYA: Military Situation Report
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Egyptian officials have not yet commented on President
Qa a i s relatively conciliatory speech last week, in which he
tried to portray himself as the reasonable, peace-seeking party
in the dispute. Egypt's senior representative in Tripoli pri-
vately characterized the speech as a clever move that, in effect,
had left Egypt in a position of being "damned if it does, and
damned if it does not" attack Libya.
25X1 ' i I adhafi seems to think that an
outwardly "reasonable" a7p--proacn is his best course. To that
end he repeated in an interview published over the weekend a
promise that in the interests of Arab unity he would not use
Libyan forces even to repel an Egyptian attack.
25X1 Qadhafi also offered to meet with President Sadat in
a neu ra country to resolve their differences without media-
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tors. In an apparent effort to put Sadat on the spot, Qadhaf
blamed Egyptian Foreign Minister Fahmi and Egyptian and US in-
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telligence for fomenting tensions between the two countr
implying that Sadat has had little control over events. I
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KOREA: Agreement Reached
//Agreement has been reached between North Korea
and the United Nations Command regarding the separation of mili-
tary forces in the Joint Security Area at Panmunjom. Minor differ-
ences were resolved when the Koreans accepted a UN Command coun-
terproposal on passage of nonmilitary personnel and vehicles
across the Military Demarcation Line.//
25X1 1//Pyongyang has approached these negotiations
seriously and was anxious to see them succeed. The North Koreans
hope the agreement will help refurbish their image in the wake
of the August 18 Panmunjom incident.//
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A three-party alliance supporting President Makarios
an is andling of the Cyprus issue scored a decisive victory
over former House of Representatives president Glafkos Clerides'
party in the parliamentary election on Sunday.
1 -1 According to unofficial results, the pro-Makarios al-
iance c mposed of the Communists, the Socialists, and the cen-
trist Democratic Front won 69.5 percent of the vote and 34 of
35 seats. The Democratic Front--which acted as Makarios' surro-
gate--ran first in the popular vote and won all 21 seats it con-
tested. It will have control of the House. The Communists ran
second in the popular vote and won all 9 seats they contested;
the Socialists won 4 of 6 seats. Greek Cypriot negotiator Tassos
Papadopoulos, who ran as an independent and is likely to be the
next House president, won the remaining seat with the support
of the pro-Makarios parties.
Clerides' center-right Democratic Rally made a respect-
7517 snowing. It won 24.1 percent of the popular vote but failed
to gain any seats because of the winner-take-all electoral sys-
tem.
CYPRUS-LIBYA: Arab Hijackers
The three hijackers who seized a KLM airliner over
the weekend and later surrendered the plane in Cyprus are having
difficulty getting to a destination where they will be allowed
to stay.
]tne i3ac ers agreea to r-9=se Z
passengers and crew on the condition that they be given safe
conduct out of Cyprus. At least two of the hijackers had to re-
turn to Cyprus yesterday, however, when an airline pilot in
Athens refused to take them aboard his flight to Iraq.
We have not yet been able to establish the affiliation
o e ijackers, all of whom apparently were Arabs. Officials
of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which has officially
condemned the hijacking, suggested yesterday that the incident
was planned by Wadi Haddad.
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