NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010024-0
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RIPPUB
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T
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18
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December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
May 12, 2006
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24
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Publication Date: 
September 15, 1976
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REPORT
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I. TO: AW AW IAW AAW Adw AAWAT approve git ase -RDP79TO0975A029300010024-0 NAME AND ADDRESS 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions dkEMIS 0 State Dept. review completed Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02930D a - 0 OW Aw Aw Aw Aw MV MW MW MW Top Secret (Security Classification) Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE Wednesday September 15, 1976 CI NIDC 76-217C 233 0 25X1 0 0 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29300010024-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29300010024-0 Approved For Releao National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday Sent_Pmher 15. 1976 e NID cable is tor the purpose o informing senior US officials. LEBANON: Situation Report SOUTH AFRICA: Work Boycott PANAMA: Demonstrations USSR: Agriculture MEXICO: Peso Support Page 1 Page 3 Page 3 Page 4 Page 6 YUGOSLAVIA-ROMANIA: Talks USSR: Kirillin NORTH KOREA - SOUTH KOREA: UN Confrontation IRAQ: President Bakr's Health CANADA: Cabinet Shuffle Page 8 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 14 Approved For Rel$ase 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02930P010024-0 Approved For Release LEBANON: Situation Report I lArab mediators are trying to promote a meeting of asir Ara at, Lebanese president-elect Sarkis, and Syrian Prime Minister Khulayfawi in another attempt to implement the Damas- cus accord concluded between Syria and the Palestine Liberation Organization in late July. I IThe Damascus accord calls for a cease-fire, Palestin- ian a erence to the restrictive Cairo accords, and the opening of roundtable negotiations under Sarkis. Efforts to implement the agreement in July failed because the Syrians and Palestin- ians were unable to agree even on the composition of a cease- fire committee, and because of lingering Syrian suspicions that the Palestinians were only playing for time to rearm and for- tify their positions. The pro-leftist radio in Beirut announced yesterday that the PLO and its leftist allies had approved the meeting, which is being pushed by the Saudi and Tunisian foreign minis- ters and Arab League mediator al-Khuli. Christian leaders, how- ever, have reportedly made their approval contingent on Presi- dent Franjiyah being represented, and Sarkis has apparently in- dicated that he will not attend such a meeting before his inau- guration without Franjiyah's approval. //Damascus has yet to respond to the proposal-,-"' but presumably would welcome it. Syrian President Asad has 25X1 shown some renewed interest in a political settlement Approved For Release X007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010Q24-0 Approved For //Although battle lines have been almost static over the past month, the Christians apparently have reason to hope that their continual blockade and bombardment of Tripoli will soon cause the city to fall from within.// erva ions about the proposed tripartite meeting, insisting again that Syria should honor its pledge to withdraw from Sawfar, Jazzin, and the north as a first step towards complete withdrawal. October 18, meanwhile, was named yesterday as the a e or the start of the Arab League summit conference on Lebanon. The summit will be held in Cairo. Leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt has expressed some res- Approved For 25X1 25X1 Approved For Relo SOUTH AFRICA: Work Boycott I The work boycott by blacks living in Soweto, near Johannesburg, continued into its second day, with 70 to 90 percent absenteeism reported by the city's business firms. The township itself was relatively quiet with only a ew sca tered instances of violence. The neighboring town- ship of Alexandra was cordoned off by police in an effort to prevent the boycott from spreading. wort boycott will begin there but perhaps not until next week. F7 I PANAMA: Demonstrations //The Torrijos government, on the defensive do- mestically after three days of demonstrations spurred by eco- nomic discontent, is likely to press harder for movement in the Panama Canal treaty negotiations in an effort to distract its critics.// //Violent demonstrations sparked by several stu- dent groups erupted last Friday and again on Monday in Panama City and its suburbs. There were peaceful protests again yes- terday.// I /Recent price rises were the demonstrators' pri- mary concern. The disorders, which involved several thousand people including hoodlums and looters, resulted in perhaps 200 arrests and reported damages of $2-3 million. The protests were clearly aimed at the government, with almost no anti-US over- tones.// //President Lakas, who met with demonstrators Mon- day, was reportedly given a 48-hour deadline to roll back prices. Further demonstrations may take place if the government does 25X1 not meet at least some of the demands.// Reports continue to circulate in Cape Town that a Approved For Relejase 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010p24-0 Approved Total agricultural output in the USSR this year will //Panamanian leaders are also concerned that if the treaty talks are not resumed soon, the US elections could delay negotiations.// //Torrijos has several options. He could meet with student s and even lower some prices, although this would aggra- vate economic problems. Regardless of any economic moves, he is almost certain to press harder for a resumption of treaty talks and visible signs of progress to headline at home.// //Torrijos could well decide to push for action at this year s UN General Assembly. A less likely possibility would be to use the US as a scapegoat domestically by alleging economic pressures or destabilization efforts. This could in- cite larger demonstrations that Torrijos might not be able to control, and could also upset the negotiations.// //Torrijos, with the National Guard solidly behind him, does not yet face a serious threat, but domestic pressures are mounting, and the decline in his popularity could lead him to act without fully considering the possible results. USSR: Agriculture be about the same as in the poor year of 1975. A large increase in crop output will be offset by a sharp decline in livestock production. We now estimate Soviet grain production this year at million metric tons, up 5 million tons from our estimate in early August. Although grain is the USSR's single most impor- tant crop, other crops as a group rival grain in their impact on agricultural production and on the country's net import po- sition. Approved Approved For Relea I I Potatoes--an important food and feed crop--are a par- e titute for grain and can either make up part of a grain shortfall when plentiful or substantially swell Soviet require- ments for feed grain after a poor crop. Sunflower seeds supply three quarters of the vegetable oil and sugar beets provide four fifths of the sugar consumed yearly in the USSR. Cotton exports earn sizable amounts of hard currency. I lOur preliminary estimates indicate that the Soviets wi harvest about 90 to 95 million tons of potatoes, close to their average production for the past five years, and about 85 million tons of sugar beets, 28 percent more than in 1975. Cot- ton and vegetable crops will approach all-time highs, and the sunflower seed crop will be only 10 percent below the 1973 rec- ord level. he 19 percent jump in crop production will be offset by an estimated 13 percent drop in output of livestock products-- the result of earlier distress slaughtering. Meat production probably will be about 12.5 million tons, off 17 percent from 1975. Milk production will be roughly 85 million tons, a drop of 6 million tons from last year, and egg output could be off as much as 17 percent. The expected increase in feed availability offers hope to consumers for some relief from shortages of livestock prod- ucts. September should see a moderate increase in meat produc- tion from the severely depressed July level, but shortages will persist during the rest of the year. I J The current expansion in herd inventories reflects good pas ure and forage crops this summer and the larger grain harvest. By January 1, hog numbers will reach an estimated 90 percent of the January 1, 1975 level, and poultry, 95 percent; both represent more rapid recoveries than occurred following the 1963 distress slaughter. Cattle numbers, which have changed little throughout the period, will be about 2 percent above January 1, 1975 levels. The average slaughter weight of cattle, however, will still be down substantially. The improved crop prospects for the year reduce the need for imports of agricultural commodities--notably grain-- and release for export greater quantities of cotton, sugar, and Approved For Released 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02930001 X024-0 Approved FE vegetable oil. Last year's poor harvest disrupted the USSR's traditional agricultural trade patterns, as imports of farm commodities mushroomed while exports fell substantially. Unless there are quality problems with this year's we expect the Soviets to hold grain purchases to about 14 cro p, million tons. At current prices, purchases of this size would cost roughly $2 to 2.5 billion. Last year's purchases of 27 million tons cost almost $4.5 billion. With a good sugar beet crop, the USSR may increase ar exnnrts. Exports of vegetable oil will be expanded, cot- su g ton will again be available for sale, and meat purchases will drop to more normal levels. MEXICO: Peso Support I I Mexico will support the peso at a level 37 percent e ow its dollar value before the currency was floated two weeks ago. I I The move, announced on Sunday, is an attempt to elim- inate uncertainties created by the government's failure to pre- pare the people for the float and to reassure them that the government is in control of the situation. The public impression that a new parity has been set with the announcement, however, could lead to a greater outcry if there are further changes in the peso's value. By not referring to its action as a repegging of the peso, e government hopes to keep open its options for further adjusting the value of the currency if the current exchange rate becomes unsupportable. The government's announcement came as the peso con- inue o strengthen against the dollar. The peso's value edged up slightly last week to 4.90 cents on Friday from 4.87 cents on Wednesday. The new supported level would be just above 5 cents; before the float it had been pegged at 8 cents. I Pressures resulting from skyrocketing prices, shortages of goo s, and labor's demand for a quick return to a fixed rate of exchange apparently led President Echeverria to decide in Approved For e lease 029300010024-0 25X1 Approved For ReIe4 . favor of early establishment of a supported level for the cur- rency. Mexican officials had been saying earlier that an ex- tended float was necessary. I I Echeverria's yielding to pressure raises doubts about is u ure anti-inflation programs. How far his government is prepared to go in controlling inflation will be made clearer when it announces new official price levels and the size of a promised wage increase for federal workers. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29300P10024-0 Approved Fclr Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AP29300010024-0 YUGOSLAVIA-ROMANIA: Talks I During their talks in Yugoslavia last week, presi- en s eausescu and Tito evidently concentrated on coordinat- ing their strategy toward Moscow and on scotching speculation that there are differences between them. I Tito, reportedly tired after the Colombo summit and suffering from an "acute liver disease," nevertheless went all out to show that Belgrade and Bucharest have no problems. Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02930g010024-0 Approved For Rele He greeted Ceausescu at the airport and saw him off despite Yugoslav protocol rules that exempt him from such fatiguing duties. I I The two leaders held lengthy discussions that re- portedly underlined the closeness of their views on all ques- tions of mutual interest. One highlight was Tito's signing of a joint declaration, the first part of which closely follows Ceausescu's ten principles of national independence and non- interference in internal affairs. Belgrade had previously re- sisted Romanian requests for such an endorsement. I uIn the declaration the two presidents emphasized their determination to cooperate closely in pursuing their in- dependent courses. They also: --Praised the free exchanges of views at the recent Eu- ropean communist conference. --Voiced anxiety that certain powers are seeking to "le- galize" the right to interfere in the internal affairs of others--a reference primarily to the so-called Brezhnev doctrine. --Welcomed the Helsinki accords, but noted the lack of concrete steps to implement them. --Stressed the need for positive achievements at the follow-on meeting in Belgrade next year, which, they fear, Moscow is seeking to play down. --Reaffirmed their intention cautiously to pursue multi- lateral cooperation in the Balkans. --Emphasized nonaligned issues, praising the Colombo summit for renouncing "all forms of foreign domination and exploitation." Moscow and it allies have criticized some members of the movement for accusing both the USSR and the US of attempting to exploit the.third world. I During the talks the two leaders also reiterated standar pledges of "all-around assistance" to national libera- tion movements, and called for democratization of the United Approved For Rele4se 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02g300010024-0 Approved Nations, dissolution of military blocs, and the creation of a new international economic and political order. The two sides signed a number of bilateral economic cooperation agreements inc new hydroelectric project. Deputy Premier Kirillin told Ambassador Stoessel last week that the next five-year plan is almost completed and that the Supreme Soviet will meet next month to approve it. He also said that the 15-year plan for 1976 to 1990 is far from completed and has shrunk to a 10-year plan for 1981 to 1990. Work on the plan may be one of the tasks assigned to a new institute of Systems Research established under the directorship of Dzherman Gvishiani, deputy chairman of the State Committee for Science and Technology and Premier Kosygin's son-in-law. I I Kirillin, who is chairman of the committee for science and technology, said that the main focus of Gvishiani's insti- tute would be on forecasting developments in the Soviet economy and state. Gvishiani's idea is to concentrate on comprehensive planning, embracing all fields. One problem, according to Kiril- lin, is that forecasting is now scattered among more than 100 institutions. When asked how the new institute's work would relate to that of Gosplan, Kirillin replied that he thought the insti- tute should help Gosplan in formulating long-term plans. The relationship may be strained, since the use of forecasting has been a divisive question among Soviet economists. I Gvishiani's institute is a gain for mathematical economis -s who, under the leadership of N. P. Fedorenko, have pushed for more forecasting in planning and the use of systems analysis and the program-goal principle. Their approach has been fought by traditionalists, especially those in Gosplan. Approved ~ Approved For ReIe4 North Korea is once again on the diplomatic offensive, hoping to build a communist and third world majority behind its position at the UN this fall. Pyongyang's supporters recently submitted a resolution calling for the withdrawal of "UN forces" and an end to "foreign aggression" in Korea. Pro - South Korean forces have filed a counter reso- lution, emphasizing the need to maintain some kind of armistice machinery in Korea and to include Seoul in any future Korean security talks. Although the outlook could change as a result of hard lobbying by Pyongyang and Seoul, it now appears that the outcome at the General Assembly this fall will be essentially the same as last year when two conflicting Korean resolutions were passed. When the pro - North Korean UN resolution was passe as fall--for the first time--and the pro - South Korean resolution was passed by only a narrow margin, it appeared that Pyongyang might have enough momentum to achieve an outright defeat for Seoul this year. Recently, however, a number of developments have improved the prospects for passage again of South Korea's resolution: --Divisions in the nonaligned movement. At the Colombo summit, the nonaligned countries had difficulty obtaining a consensus on political problems, such as Korea. Although North Korea rammed through a harshly worded resolution, at least 23 of 85 attending countries--in an unusual display of dissent--registered formal reservations. About half of the reservations came from long-time Seoul supporters, but nearly half came from states that abstained on both Korean resolutions at the UN lastyear. --//An improved pro-Seoul lobbying effort. South Korea and its principal backers--including the US, Japan, the UK, and Canada--have been meeting periodically in New York to co- ordinate lobbying efforts around the world. The Japanese and British, in particular, are taking on more responsibil- ity for promoting South Korea's case. These efforts proba- bly contributed to the criticism of the North Korean Approved For Rele Approved Fair Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009715A029300010024-0 resolution at Colombo. The lobbying probably also influ- enced several of the nonaligned states which co-sponsored Pyongyang's resolution last year to indicate recently that they may be open to a more balanced approach.// --A more extreme pro - North Korean UN resolution. While it is not as harsh as the Colombo formulation, the pro- Pyongyang UN resolution this fall is more extreme than any presented at the UN in recent years. Indeed, the tone seems poorly designed to woo many votes from the growing bloc of UN members who, weary of the annual Korea debates, want to avoid any greater involvement with either side. --Panmunjom. The incident advanced North Korean objectives insofar as it drew world attention to a tense situation in Korea and to the continuing US presence there. Even so, the fallout from Panmunjom at the UN seems likely to favor Seoul's prospects slightly because--except in the communist and radical third-world states--North Korea has been held responsible for the incident. On the other hand, there are factors favoring the North Koreans. Pyongyang has won priority for its resolution this year, which will improve its prospects a bit. Reporting from Colombo indicates that North Korean diplomats have polished somewhat their often blunt and abrasive negotiating tactics. I I Even in the event that the North's resolution passes, and the outh's fails, the damage to Seoul is likely to be limited. The result could be additional pressures for US troop withdrawals, some erosion of Seoul's international standing, and a limited blow to South Korean morale. The General Assembly's action will not, however, be legally binding on any party. An adverse vote is unlikely to affect the South Korean economy or Seoul's relations with its major allies or tradin artners, or to seriously hurt confidence within South Korea. 25X1 IRAQ: President Bakr's Health The US interests section in Baghdad has been in- formed by a British embassy official that President Bakr suf- fered a stroke on August 27. Approved Fo Approved For Rele /This latest incident in Bakr's history of poor ea , w l includes recurring heart trouble and diabetes, may speed up the consolidation of power in the hands of 39- year-old strongman Saddam Husayn. Should Bakr die or resign soon, the transition would probably be untroubled, although Saddam Husayn's hold on power might be threatened if he is un- able to secure the backing of the military--where Bakr's strength has been based.// //During the past four years, it has become clear that Sad am Husayn is the dominant figure in the regime by virtue of his control of the Baath Party organization and the party's pervasive security apparatus. Saddam's ascendancy has been facilitated by the declining health of Bakr, who has for some time largely been relegated to a ceremonial role.// I //If Bakr leaves the scene, Saddam Husayn's long range pro em of retaining the loyalty of the military coun- cil could become more difficult. Saddam may even arrange to have a trusted military figure succeed Bakr in an effort to persuade the generals that their interests will continue to be represented in the post-Bakr regime.// I _;~ /The generally distant and often strained rela- i Saddam--who heads the party's civilian wing--and senior military men were exacerbated by his sudden promotion Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29300910024-0 Approved Fc in early January to the rank of Lieutenant General. Saddam had neither military service nor rank prior to his appointment.// //The move, making Saddam Iraq's senior officer after Bacr, presumably was intended to strengthen his hand when Bakr, who is head of the party's military wing, steps down.// I IThe cabinet shuffle Prime Minister Trudeau announced as nigh-t is aimed at increasing support for his Liberal Party, which is now at its lowest ebb since he took office in 1968. I I Foreign Minister MacEachen took over the post as gov- ernment leader in the House of Commons as well as that of deputy prime minister. The public works minister and postmaster gen- eral were also replaced. I _;~ //The shuffle will improve the Liberals' tarnished image, u alls short of the overhaul needed to end the malaise of the Trudeau government.// Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29300010024-0 MW ~AW AW AV AV AV AV AV AV lopA RFor Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29300010024-0 (Security Classification) Top Secret (Sec uri4OwsWfidafigg)Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29300010024-0 AdV AW AW AV AW AW AW MW MW AA