NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010030-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: September 18, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Saturday September 18, 1976 CI NIDC 76-220C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence-Daily Cable for Saturday September 18, 1976.
ITne NiD a e is tor e purpose ot intorming
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senior US officials.
LEBANON: Situation Report
Page 1
PANAMA: Relations with US
Page 2
FINLAND:
Govern
ment Resigns
Page 4
SWEDEN:
Electio
n Poll
Page 4
Page 5
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LEBANON: Situation Report
I ISyria's last-minute decision not to send Prime Min-
-n-ic-arr rum to the meeting of Syrian, Lebanese, and Pal-
estinian representatives that convened in Shaturah yesterday
has dampened hopes that the talks will produce a cease-fire.
Deputy Defense Minister Jamil, a comparatively low-level rep-
resentative, is attending the talks, which will resume tomorrow
after Lebanese president-elect Sarkis returns from a meeting
with President Sadat in Cairo.
The leftist press in Beirut has criticized the Syr-
ian move, characterizing it as evidence that Syria is not se-
riously interested in a truce. Although some Palestinians ap-
parently opposed Yasir Arafat negotiating with anyone of lower
rank than Khulayfawi, Arafat is participating in the talks
along with Sarkis and Arab League mediators.
Syria's reasons for lowering its profile at the tri-
partite meeting are not clear. There is some speculation that
the Syrians want to test the waters with Arafat and--if suf-
ficiently encouraged by his attitude--may invite him to come
to Damascus for direct talks with President Asad.
I lIt seems unlikely, however, that Asad would want to
a any new initiatives with Arafat just before the in-
auguration of Sarkis, if for no other reason than to avoid
any risk of upsetting plans for the transfer of power. Camille
Shamun, speaking in his capacity as acting prime minister,
announced yesterday that Sarkis must take his oath of office
before Parliament if his installation is to be considered le-
gal. He also announced that the swearing-in ceremony will take
place in Beirut in an unspecified location near the national
museum.
I Shamun probably was conveying plans that have been
accepted y all the principal players, but his remarks about
the necessity of Sarkis appearing before Parliament are only
his own interpretation of an ambiguous point in the constitu-
tion.
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Egyptian President Sadat delivered an address aimed
at the Lebanese people yesterday that emphasized Egypt's com-
mitment to the unity and independence of Lebanon. Although
Sadat could not resist several swipes at Syria's role in the
conflict, his remarks were intended mainly to highlight Egypt's
recent entrance into efforts to negotiate a settlement and to
show support for Sarkis on the eve of his visit to Cairo.
I ISarkis is expected to ask Sadat to urge the Pales-
tinians to be more flexible, and he may broach the sensitive
subject of Egypt's efforts to resupply the Palestinian and
The Panamanian government has launched an anti-US
propagan a campaign--including a formal protest over alleged
US interference in Panama's affairs--in an effort to redirect
domestic protest over economic issues and to press the US to
schedule another round of Panama Canal treaty negotiations
soon.
I The government alleges that residents of the US Canal
intelligence agencies, and members of the Panamanian
elite were behind the looting and vandalism during the past
week that accompanied protests over price increases. The gov-
ernment-controlled press has headlined the charges and Foreign
Minister Boyd has formally protested to US Ambassador Jorden.
The Panamanians are holding several persons they
c aim are US servicemen involved in inciting the protests. The
US embassy, however, has information that only one US serviceman
was actually arrested on a protest-related charge. The embassy
has formally denied any US official involvement in the disorders.
Most Panamanian leaders probably recognize the
trumped-up nature of the government's claims. The anti-US cam-
paign is a result of Panamanian strongman General Torrijos'
initial failure to deal effectively with the protests.
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I J Torrijos' cautious approach last week, attempt-
ing only to contain the demonstrations, led to further disor-
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Torrijos hopes his anti-US tactics will:
--Rally people behind his government by shifting the
blame both for the demonstrations and for the country's
economic difficulties.
--Provide a rationale, if necessary, for suppressing pro-
tests by students, who are now being cast as tools of the
CIA.
--Spur the campaign to press the US to renew canal treaty
negotiations on key issues prior to the US elections--or
at least place the onus for further delays squarely on the
us.
Boyd, in a press conference yesterday, said there
was a crucial need for a renewal of talks. There is a growing
chance Boyd will formally raise the canal treaty issue at the
UN General Assembly.
I A strong show of force by the National Guard with
additional arrests on Thursday and Friday, along with a promise
that high government officials would meet with students, has
halted the demonstrations, at least temporarily. This weekend,
like last, will probably provide a respite from further disor-
ders.
I IThe government continues to confine its campaign to
propag, da battle. It apparently still does not want to risk
inciting a major anti-US street protest which might get out of
control or could turn against the regime itself.
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FINLAND: Government Resigns
I Finland's five-party coalition government resigned
y y after failing to agree on budgetary legislation. This
is the third major challenge faced by the nine-month-old coali-
tion.
I IThe coalition survived the other tests largely because
o e e orts of President Kekkonen. Although Kekkonen said he
will not interfere this time, he may try to avoid a new elec-
tion by asking the four noncommunist parties--which have a
majority in Parliament--to try to form a new government. Pros-
pects for a successful outcome are not bright, however, because
of deep-seated differences among the noncommunists over economic
issues.
I J If a new election is called, it would probably be held
ovember. Based on polls last spring, a new election
probably would not lead to marked changes in the composition of
Parliament, and would probably result in another shaky coali-
tion.
I hIf Kekkonen does not ask the old government to remain
in care a er status until the election, he may appoint a govern-
ment of civil servants to carry on business during the inter-
regnum. In the past, such governments have been used to enact
contentious legislation that regularly elected parliaments were
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I IThe last public opinion poll before the election to-
Monday gives the ruling Social Democrats and the
small Communist Party a slight edge. Although the lead is only
.4 of a percent and the poll allows for a margin of error of
2 percent, the Social Democrats appear to be duplicating their
last minute spurt in 1973.
The poll showed the Conservative Party had dropped
percent since the previous poll in August, the Lib-
erals were down nearly a point, and the Center Party remained
the same. Both the Social Democrats and the Communists, mean-
while, increased in popularity. The nuclear energy issue, which
has dominated the late stages of the campaign and could help
the nonsocialist parties, is an uncertain factor.
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I //If the Social Democrats and the Communists
win a majority, a me has two weeks to put together a govern-
ment. As formateur, Palme would not have to announce his new
government until the new parliament convenes on October 4.
Unless he began coalition negotiations with a nonsocialist
party in this interval, however, most of the Swedish 25X1 -
IInpress would conclude that he intended to reconstitute
e i ormal alliance with the Communists.// 25X1
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I IGold prices rebounded sharply yesterday to $119.50 an
ounce 1 ondon, the highest afternoon price in two months.
Prices have risen $8.25 since Wednesday when the International
Monetary Fund held its third gold auction.
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Many dealers attribute the buying to covering short
positions taken in the expectation that this week's auction
would drive prices down. Prices fell sharply after the second
IMF auction, declining from about $122 in mid-July to lows of
just over $100 an ounce in late August.
Press reports following the meeting of the EC Mone-
tary committee on September 10 apparently contributed to the
recent market recovery.
I I The EC reportedly had agreed unanimously to ask the
IMF to follow a "more flexible" approach in its gold auctions.
Many speculators apparently felt the Fund would be asked to de-
lay or scale down the size of future auctions. In fact, the EC
did not reach a consensus on a specific position.
In addition, some speculators may be betting that con-
tinue political difficulties in South Africa--the world's lead-
ing gold producer--will effect future production.
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