NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010040-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 19, 2005
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: September 24, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday September 24, 1976
CI NIDC 76-225C
NAHUNAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday September 24, 1976.
e a e is or e purpose o in orming
senior u o icials.
LEBANON: Situation Report
THAILAND: Prime Minister Resigns
ANGOLA-ZAMBIA: Relations
IRAQ-KUWAIT: Border Tension
BRAZIL: Debt Problems
ARGENTINA: Capital Repatriation Ban
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LEBANON: Situation Report
I I Lebanese President Ilyas Sarkis took the,oath of of-
fice yes erday behind Syrian lines in Shaturah, with Syrian
troops maintaining tight security.
Sixty-seven parliamentary deputies were present for
e ceremony, mainly Christians, Shia Muslims who have recently
begun cooperating with the Christians, and residents of the
Syrian-controlled Bekaa Valley. At least 30 leftist deputies
and Prime Minister Karami boycotted the proceedings.
I I Extremist Christian leader Camille Shamun--who is
currently holding the foreign, interior, and defense portfo-
lios--attended. According to one Lebanese newspaper, the cabi-
net is expected to tender its resignation, but Sarkis may feel
unable to get rid of Shamun even though he presumably views him
with distrust.
L J Sarkis' inaugural address was an attempt to stand
fighting and reassure all sides that their essential
interests could be preserved in a united Lebanon. He did not
set forth a detailed plan of action, merely calling for an end
to the fighting and for dialogue among all parties.
I uIn an attempt to appeal to the leftists, he spoke of
gness to consider basic political changes as long as
Lebanon's unity and basic democratic system are preserved--a
reference to reforming the previous structure that had worked
to preserve Christian ascendancy even after the Muslims became
a majority of the population. He talked about the necessity to
preserve free competition, but stressed that it had to be super-
vised by the state.
He went out of his way to woo the Palestinians, em-
p asizing the "Arabism" of Lebanon and its willingness to help
the Palestinians regain their homeland. He made it clear, how-
ever, that the sovereignty of Lebanon had to be respected and
that previous pacts and agreements--a reference to the Cairo
accords regulating fedayeen activity--had to be adhered to.
In a bow to Damascus, he lauded Syria's "special re-
a Lions ip" with Lebanon and said that the presence of Syrian
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troops on Lebanese soil fell within the framework of that rela-
tionship, blessing its legitimacy. He attempted to reassure
those who are suspicious of Damascus' motives, however, by
stating that the Syrian presence is subject to the "constitu-
tional Lebanese authorities," who will regulate it in the coun-
try's interests.
25X1 By attempting to reach out to everyone, Sarkis may
en by p easing no one; the Christians in particular will be
wary of his talk of social reform.
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Saudi Arabia's effort to arrange a "mini-summit,"
w is would attempt to reconcile Egypt and Syria and open the
way for dealing with the Lebanese problem, has been stalled for
the past few days. Recent remarks by Egypt's President Sadat
suggest that Cairo is in no hurry to facilitate the mediation
effort.
blaming Damascus for "selling out" the Palestinians and obstruct-
ing other Arabs' efforts to resolve the Lebanon crisis.
In an interview published yesterday in the Beirut
newspaper An-Nahar, Sadat continues his steady attacks on Syria,
25X1 I uIn a direct slap at Arab mediators who are trying to
resolve Egyptian-Syrian differences as a first step toward tack-
ling the Lebanon problem, Sadat denied any relationship between
the two situations. He claimed--somewhat disingenuously--that
Egypt has had nothing to do with the Lebanon situation, that it
is Syria which has been "taking sides" there, and that it is
Syria which started the Cairo-Damascus feud.
25X1 Although Sadat said he welcomes an Arab "mini-summit"
with Egyptian and Syrian participation, he made it clear that
he envisions this as a vehicle to discuss Lebanon, not a means
to settle his quarrel with Syria.
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Sadat indicated that he believes the only way to stop
the fig ting in Lebanon is with what he called a deterrent
force--presumably an expanded Arab security contingent with an
offensive role--and he offered Sarkis "tanks, rockets, and ar-
tillery of all kinds." He said, however, that Egypt would not
supply any troops.
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Despite talk of a Palestinian cease-fire, fighting
remained relatively heavy throughout Lebanon yesterday, at leas
in the early part of the day.
Beirut was tense, with shelling in some residential
and heavy gunfire along the central confrontation line;
intense shelling continued in the southeast suburbs. Shelling
in the Mount Lebanon area apparently centered near the villages
of Alayh and Qammatiyah. I
THAILAND: Prime Minister Resigns
I I The return of former military ruler Thanom Kitti-
cac on o Thailand last weekend has brought the infighting
that has been simmering within the coalition government to a
head. Prime Minister Seni.Pramot abruptly announced his resig-
nation yesterday after he came under attack in the parliament
for his handling of the Thanom return but his resignation in
fact reflects the weakness that has plagued his government
since it came to power last April.
Thanom's return has not led to the violence that
occurre when his former deputy, Praphat, returned briefly
last month, but it nevertheless brought further pressure to
bear on the already weak government.
//Since the government was formed in April, rival
po itica eaders have maneuvered for stronger positions
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within the four-party coalition, with the most vigorous chal-
lenge coming from Deputy Prime Minister Praman's Thai Nation
Party, which has recently all but demanded the critical defense
portfolio held by Seni.//
//Seni's position has also been weakened by the
deep divisions within his own Democrat Party. Thanom's return
has increased the contradictory pressures from these factions,
and it apparently was a bitter attack by the Democrat Party
spokesman in parliament that triggered Seni's decision to re-
sign.//
I Seni's resignation undoubtedly reflects his frus-
ration wit the constant challenges to his leadership, but
it may also be a ploy to strengthen his hand to reorganize the
cabinet, possibly ousting the troublesome Thai Nation Party.
Although his resignation or a cabinet reshuffle have been
rumored for some time, the
caught everyone
The party's Central Committee has agreed to ask Seni
to accept the post of prime miniter in a new government.
Seni will remain in office until a new government
is formed. The Democrats are by far the strongest party in the
parliament and will almost certainly be called upon first to
form a new government. At this time, there is no strong alter-
native to Seni.
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Angola and Zambia have agreed to exchange diplomatic
missions, according to a joint communique issued in Luanda yes-
terday.
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The two governments are interested in developing closer
government-to-government and party-to-party ties. They will set
up a permanent joint commission to resolve such bilateral prob-
lems as border security. The agreement apparently falls short of
providing for full diplomatic relations.
I I The Neto regime in Angola sees better relations with
a is a facilitating closer cooperation among the states back-
ing black nationalists in Rhodesia and Namibia.
Neto would also like to discourage Zambian support for
a Iona Union insurgents operating in eastern Angola. Although
Zambian assistance to the insurgents has been sharply curtailed
since the end of the Angolan civil war, the Zambian government
is still sympathetic to the National Union and allows it to use
Zambian territory for refuge and staging purposes.
I I Zambian President Kaunda will use this new opportunity
tor conra t with Angola to press it toward establishing a gov-
ernment of reconciliation in which the National Union and the
National Front can participate. He will probably also encourage
the Angolans to reduce the Cuban presence in Angola.
IRAQ-KUWAIT: Border Tension
Iraq shows no sign of withdrawing the small detachments
of troops that have been camped on the Kuwaiti side of the
Iraq-Kuwait border for the past two weeks. No new Iraqi in-
cursions have occurred, however.
I I On Wednesday, Kuwait's defense minister privately con-
irme at a handful of Iraqi troops had taken up positions
at two points a short distance inside Kuwaiti territory. The
Kuwaiti military is limiting its response to observing the
Iraqis and is making no effort to restrict their movements.
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Iraq's border violations, coupled with troop movements
near t e frontier and propaganda against the Kuwaiti Emir's re-
cent dissolution of the leftist-influenced National Assembly,
were meant to demonstrate that Iraq sees the Emir's moves as
an affront.
I I Iraq's muscle-flexing is probably also intended to
warn t e Emir that he should consider the likely reaction in
Baghdad before making further moves against Baghdad's friends
in Kuwait.
Kuwait has clamped strict controls on local press
coverage of its relations with Iraq, discreetly refusing to
respond in kind to Baghdad's propaganda attacks. The Ministry
of Information censured a daily this week for having published
an article on the border dispute without prior consultation
with responsible officials.
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I razilian President Geisel, concerned with the
rape y mounting national debt and attentive to recent press
disclosures of official corruption,, appears to be tightenin
his control over economic planning.
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25X1 I IBrazil's current-account deficit has grown from about
$1.5 billion in the early 1970s to $6.8 billion in 1975 and will
probably be around $5.8 billion this year.
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I J Financing these deficits drove the national debt from
billion in 1972 to $24 billion in 1975, and it is expected
to reach $27 billion by the end of 1976. Servicing its current
debt obligation absorbs 40 to 45 percent of Brazil's foreign
exchange reserves. Domestic prices have increased nearly 45
percent over the last 12 months.
25X1 //Beginning in 1977, the government will rank eco-
nomic eve opment projects in terms of priority for capital in-
vestment. The guidelines are not firm yet, but they provide a
forecast of what Geisel intends to emphasize.//
25X1 //The areas cited for investment programming in-
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c u e airpor s, ports, agriculture and cattle raising, steel
metallurgy, railroads, naval construction, highway construction
and maintenance, nuclear energy, and science and technology.//
ARGENTINA: Capital Repatriation Ban
press report.
repatriation of funds by foreign business firms, according to a
Argentina is planning to impose a six-month ban on the
25X1 I I The move may be a response to unexpectedly high rates
o capita repatriation since the regime last month greatly lib-
eralized the rules governing foreign investment. The junta vir-
tually repudiated the restrictive Peronist code in an effort to
attract foreign capital back to Argentina.
25X1 Now, however, the junta may have found that the amount
o capital being repatriated under the new law is greater than
the still shaky economy can safely tolerate.
25X1 The six-month ban probably does not signal a whole-
sa e retreat from the liberal economic policies the junta has
favored to date. It does point, however, to serious problems--
notably in the balance of payments--that persist despite the
very real progress made thus far..
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