NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029400010010-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: October 6, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Wednesday October 6, 1976 CI NIDC 76-235C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday October 6, 1976.
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LEBANON: Situation Report
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KENYA-UGANDA: Relations
Page 4
ETHIOPIA: Dissidence
Page 5
RHODESIA: Nationalist Talks
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USSR-CHINA: Soviet Negotiator Returns
USSR-ROMANIA: Ceausescu's Speech
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ITALY: Socialist Party Strengthened
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LEBANON: Situation Report
The Syrians reportedly intend to resume their
offensive against Palestinian and leftist strongholds, possibly
as early as tomorrow.
The Syrians may be bargaining with the Palestinians
for concessions that could head off the offensive, but the re-
ported Syrian demands seem to represent more an ultimatum than
a bargaining position, and Damascus undoubtedly has no hope that
they will be accepted.
The Syrians,
indicated they will demand that the Palestinians agree:
--To withdraw immediately from Alayh and the Shuf.
--To return to the refugee camps and presumably abide by
other provisions of the Cairo accord.
--To change their present leadership, meaning apparently
the removal of Yasir Arafat as head of Fatah and the Pales-
tine Liberation Organization.
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The demands may be laid down at a meeting that one
leftist Beirut newspaper reports has been arranged for today or
tomorrow at Sawfar between Syria's deputy defense minister and
a Palestinian representative, possibly Salah Khalaf.
Although Damascus has stepped up its propaganda at-
tacks on Arafat's leadership, it probably does not seriously
believe it can engineer his ouster at present. By proposing
such extreme terms and calling more openly for a change in PLO
leadership, however, the Syrians probably hope to erode Arafat's
base of support and split the ranks of the PLO between those with
whom they believe an accommodation is possible and those, such
as Arafat, whom they no longer trust.
The present lull in the fighting may therefore be in-
tended more to encourage further rifts in the PLO leadership
than to spur PLO acceptance of a cease-fire.
lthough rumors are rife in Beirut that the offensive
will be mounted against Alayh and the Shuf, Syria may have de-
cided for both military and political reasons that these areas
should be bypassed. An assault on Alayh, where the Palestinians
appear well dug in, would encounter strong resistance, as oc-
curred when Christian forces tried to attack the town last Fri-
day. A successful offensive farther south would in any case
leave Alayh and the Shuf isolated and cut off from most sources
of resupply.
I I Damascus also is apparently sensitive about the reac-
tions of Druze inhabitants of Alayh and the Shuf to military
operations in their areas, primarily because anti-Syrian senti-
ment among the Lebanese Druze could spill over into the Druze
community in Syria.
I I Following reported executions of Druze civilians by
Christian forces during the mountain offensive last week, Leba-
non's Druze leaders reportedly urged their compatriots in both
Syria and Jordan to exert pressure on Syria to prevent further
Christian excesses. A Druze delegation from the Alayh area is
reported to have gone to Damascus yesterday to appeal for re-
straint from both Syrian and Christian forces.
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I IRelations between Kenya and Uganda have been less
hostile in recent weeks, but no resolution of basic differences
is likely as long as Ugandan President Amin is in power. Kenya
still considers him a threat to its security.
In a meeting between Kenyan and Ugandan officials in
Nairobi late last month, both sides said they were satisfied
that the agreement reached in August had eased tensions created
in part by Kenya's role in the Israeli rescue operation at
Uganda's Entebbe airport.
The two sides reaffirmed the need for peaceful rela-
tions an for compensating losses of life and property sustained
during the period of tension. They also agreed to "minimize
problems" in the delivery of petroleum to landlocked Uganda--a
reference to Kenya's almost two-month slowdown of petroleum
deliveries following the Entebbe operation.
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The Kenyan representative to the talks told a US em-
bassy official, however, that his government will not allow arms
shipments destined for Uganda to transit Kenya from the port of
Mombasa until it is certain Amin is living up to the August
agreement.
The Kenyans are apparently still concerned about Amin's
military intentions--especially in light of recent reports of a
new Soviet-Ugandan arms agreement--and. about his close ties to
Palestinian representatives in Kampala.. Kenya still fears some
kind of retaliation for its involvement in the Entebbe operation.
where the separatist insurgency continues.
Ethiopia's ruling military council continues to face
serious dissidence among government troops in Eritrea Province,
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The units reportedly acted against the officers to
prevent the execution of as many as 80 soldiers accused of dere-
liction of duty. The soldiers, members of a new division only
recently sent to Eritrea, discarded their weapons and fled the
scene of combat. They were captured by insurgents, who released
them after taking their uniforms. Military commanders in Asmara
ordered the soldiers executed.
/The detained officers were released follow-
ing a meeting between dissidents and senior government offi-
cials--including special representatives of the military coun-
cil
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The council has long been contending with indiscipline
among veteran troops in Eritrea, who have appeared at times to
be on the verge of revolt. The troops are war-weary, and many
disagree with the council's pursuit of a military victory over
separatist guerrillas. Many doubtless were sympathetic toward
the new recruits who deserted under fire.
I I The troops in Eritrea probably also still resent the
execu ion last July of General Getachew Nadew, then the top
commander in Eritrea, for alleged antiregime activity. Some of-
ficers at the time reportedly discussed organizing a coup, but
troops loyal to the council reasserted control and arrested at
least six of the dissidents.
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sons in connection with the assassination on Friday of an in-
fluential civilian adviser to the council. The killing probably
was carried out by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party,
an underground Marxist organization opposed to military rule.
it believes the party was responsible for the assassination at-
tempt in late September against Major Mengistu, the council's
first vice chairman. Many party members have been arrested in
recent weeks in a overnment; crackdown.
I I
The government has announced the arrest of two per-
In its public statements, the council has indicated
The talks between the Zimbabwe African National
Union and the Zimbabwe African People's Union are now taking
place in Maputo, and are expected to shift to Dar es Salaam
soon.//
//ZAPU representatives are said to be insisting
that political unity must be achieved before military forces
can be united. ZANU, which commands the loyalty of most of the
guerrillas, refuses to enter into anything but a loose poli-
tical alliance. ZANU leaders fear that political unity would
only redound to the benefit of ZAPU leader Joshua Nkomo, whom
they have long distrusted.//
//ZANU representatives also met last week in
Lusaka with representatives of the faction led by Bishop Abel
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11Muzorewa had been left out of
the original unity talks by the other factions and the "front-
line" African presidents. Muzorewa's welcome home to Rhodesia
last Sunday by a large and enthusiastic crowd, after over a
year of self-imposed exile, suggests that he hopes to exploit
his political following there to become a key figure in set-
tlement talks again.
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The guerrilla leaders, as distinct from the nation-
alist po iticians, continue to take a hard line in public on
a settlement. At a press conference in Maputo last week, a
guerrilla leader said that the fighting will continue until
the Smith government is prepared to surrender unconditionally.
//The guerrillas reportedly have decided,
however, that at any conference to set up an interim govern-
ment they will be represented by a delegation likely to be
headed by ZANU spokesman Robert Mugabe.
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USSR-ROMANIA: Ceausescu's Speech
In a speech to an army-party meeting on October 1,
Romanian President Ceausescu publicly reaffirmed the country's
intent to honor military commitments under the Warsaw Treaty and
bilateral friendship pacts. He nonetheless made it clear that
Bucharest will not alter its independent stance in Warsaw Pact
affairs.
The Romanians are preparing for a meeting of the Pact's
political consultative committee, which reportedly will be held
later this year in Bucharest. The committee has not met there
in ten years.
Such professions of fealty by Romania to its military
allies are infrequent but not new, and a comparison of Ceauses-
cu's remarks with earlier speeches on the same theme does not
indicate a significant shift from Bucharest's previous position.
In trying to take the sting out of his repeated calls
for the rapid and simultaneous dissolution of NATO and the
Warsaw Pact, Ceausescu said that, even without the military
blocs, Romania would have to continue collaborating with the
armies of the "socialist" states.
His speech, however, returned several times to the
idea that the Romanian army's primary role is the defense of
the homeland against any invader.
Ceausescu also pledged to continue developing contacts
with the armed forces of "other socialist and friendly states"--
implying China, the developing countries, and Western nations.
Bucharest frequently exchanges military delegations with states
outside the Warsaw Pact in an effort to bolster its independent
image, a practice that irritates Moscow.
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ITALY: Socialist Party Strengthened
The Italian Socialist Party has strengthened its
base by gaining control of the country's third largest labor
confederation. The Socialists were assisted in this effort by
the small Social Democratic Party, whose new leadership has
begun to loosen that party's traditional ties with the ruling
Christian Democrats.
At a meeting of the Union of Italian Workers' cen-
tral committee on September 30, Socialist Giorgio Benvenuto
was elected secretary general, replacing the Republican Party
incumbent, who had served for the past six years. The vote
was strictly along party lines, with all 79 Socialists and
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Social Democrats voting for the incumbent's ouster and 30 Re-
publicans opposing it. The two largest Italian labor confedera-
tions are dominated by the Communists and Christian Democrats.
This will help the Socialists challenge Communist
predominance in the labor movement, and provides party secre-
tary Bettino Craxi with a personal victory at a time when he
is facing a test of strength with left-wing members of his
own party led by former secretary Francesco De Martino.
The Social Democrats' support of the Socialist can-
didate--reversing their earlier position--evidently was dic-
tated from party headquarters, where a meeting of the Central
Committee was in progress. The decision apparently is part of
a larger strategy designed to give the Social Democrats greater
flexibility in both local and national politics, even if this
means playing down the party's traditional anticommunist
stance.
I uIn recent months the Social Democrats have been
breaking their alliances with the Christian Democrats at the
regional and local levels and casting their lot with parties
of the left.
I IThe left-wing Social Democratic leaders who gained
con-roi o the party in March solidified their hold last Fri-
day with the election of Pierluigi Romita as party secretary.
He replaces Giuseppe Saragat, who resigned following the June
20 parliamentary election. The party blamed its poor showing
in the election on the Christian Democrats' campaign claims
that votes cast for the smaller lay parties would be wasted.
I I Although the Social Democrats say they do not want
to reun1 e with the Socialists at this time, the two parties
have similar attitudes toward the Christian Democrats and the
Communists and are likely to work together often.
With both parties trying to emphasize their independ-
ence from the Christian Democrats, any efforts to put to-
gether a workable center-left coalition any time soon will en-
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Violence erupted briefly this morning at Thammasat
University, where protesters against former prime minister
Thanom's continued presence in Thailand have been gathering for
several days. The fighting apparently was provoked by the ar-
rival of armed vocational students, frequently used by right-wing
elements to intimidate university radicals.
//Although the military has been put on full
alert//--standard procedure during unrest--police units that
forced their way onto the campus apparently have brought the
situation under control. The outbreak of violence will put
further pressure on Prime Minister Seni to reach a decision
regarding Thanom, //but alleged slurs against the monarchy,
which reportedly led to the arrest of several student leaders,//
may harden conservative resistance to Thanom's for eparture
from the country. F77
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