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December 21, 2016
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July 1, 2008
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November 3, 1976
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Approved For Release 2008/07/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 0 0 ROUTING TO: NAME AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 1 2 3 4 ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPARE REPLY APPROVAL COMMENT DISPATCH FILE RECOMMENDATION RETURN CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE Top Secret""" (Security Classification) CONTROL NO. 1 1 1 Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE Wednesday November 3, 1976 CI NIDC 76-257C State Dept. review completed. 1 25X1 Top Secret 0 (Security Classification) Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday. November 3. 1976. The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing senior US officials. LEBANON: Situation Report INDIA: New Constitutional Amendment BURUNDI: Late Item of November 2, 1976 BURUNDI: Situation Report EAST GERMANY: Economic Policy CHILE: Withdrawal From Andean Pact Page 2 Page 3 Page 6 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 LEBANON: Situation Report Lebanese President Sarkis and Christian leaders re- portedly agreed yesterday on a plan that would allow Christian soldiers from the regular Lebanese army to serve in the Arab League peace-keeping force and to patrol the Christian side of the major confrontation lines. The plan--which apparently was put forth by Christian army officers--is intended to appease Christian militia leaders, such as Camille Shamun, who oppose the movement of Muslim peace-keeping troops into Christian ter- ritory. Arab League mediator Hasan Sabri al-Khuli re- ferred obliquely to the new plan in a press conference yester- day, but refused to be drawn out on specifics or the number of regular army troops that will participate in the deterrent The Christian contingent would presumably also be di- rectly responsible to Sarkis rather than other Christian leaders and would be drawn from the ranks of those who have had the least involvement in the conflict. Muslim leaders and leftist chief Kamal Jumblatt will object strongly to any arrangement that subjects them to policing by Syrians and other Arabs while the Christians, in effect, mon- itor themselves. Militants like Jumblatt will almost certainly accuse Sarkis of caving in to the demands of his fellow Chris- tians and may try to use the issue as a pretext for breaking their already tenuous commitment to the cease-fire. The Beirut press speculated yesterday that some Lebanese Muslim forces might be allowed to join the peace-keeping force in order to give the appearance of evenhandedness. The Saudi and Sudanese contingents that will augment the Arab League force reportedly arrived in Damascus on Monday and may have begun entering Lebanon yesterday. US officials ob- served a convoy of empty Syrian tank transporters moving toward Damascus early this week; the convoy may have been returning 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 from carrying supplies to Lebanon for the newly arrived Saudi and Sudanese reinforcements. It is also possible that Syria is rotating its own troops or sending in additional units to take part in the peace-keeping force. 25X1 25X1 25X1 The Chinese leadership yesterday issued the new regime's irs authoritative statement on domestic and international The "announcement"--in itself an unusual form of communication--was ostensibly a message of thanks to foreign individuals and organizations for their expressions of sympathy to China on the passing of Mao Tse-tung. The "announcement" was issued in the name of the party Central Committee, the standing committee of the National People's Congress (the Chinese legis- lative body), the state council, and the party's military af- fairs commission. The statement is short on specifics but seems designed to reassure both domestic and foreign audiences that there will be no sudden break in Chinese policies at home or abroad. On the domestic front the statement may be meant to reassure those Chinese who sympathized to some degree with the ideological position of the fallen leftists that the Maoist vision of a revolutionary society will not be abandoned despite the fact that the current Chinese leadership is composed of "centrist" and rightist civilians and important military men. References to domestic affairs, however, are brief, and consist merely of a series of well-worn slogans that have been given prominence in propaganda in recent weeks. Per- haps significantly, there is no reference to the need to pre- serve "new socialist things," a catch-phrase used by the fallen leftists to emphasize the policies and organizational forms spawned by the Cultural Revolution. There is also no mention of the leftist-inspired campaign to criticize former vice pre- mier Teng Hsiao-ping. Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 ' 25X1 In the international sphere, the "announcement" stresses 25X1 that China's current foreign policy was "personally laid down" by Mao and strongly implies that this policy is immutable. This part of the statement seems designed to put to rest speculation that Chinese policy toward the USSR is subject to change now that Mao is dead and the leftists have been eliminated from the leadership. By implication, the USSR is branded as a "sham" Marx- ist-Leninist country; the "announcement" states that China will "unite with all the genuine Marxist-Leninist parties and organizations the world over and carry the struggle against modern revisionism"--read the USSR--"through to the end." Although the "announcement" is clearly meant to stress continuity of policy, the reference to "all genuine Marxist- Leninist parties and organizations" may signal some modifica- tion of China's attitude toward the so-called Marxist-Leninist groups that Peking sponsored in the early 1960s as a means of countering Soviet international influence during the early stages of the Sino-Soviet dispute. In 1971, China largely abandoned its position of pa- tron to these non-ruling parties, recognizing that they were for the most part ineffective and perhaps more trouble than they were worth. The "announcement" suggests that Peking may now be prepared to resume its paternal relationship with these parties and groups. If the new Chinese statement does signal a reassess- ment of the usefulness of these groups, this suggests that the current Chinese leadership may remain somewhat skeptical as to the degree China can rely on its improved relations with the US to offset what it sees as worldwide Soviet pressures against Peking. Signs of such skepticism were apparent in the autumn of 1975 and again last summer, when the leftist leaders still retained power. Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 The passage of the constitutional amendment in India's lower house of Parliament yesterday clears the way for institu- tionalizing unprecedented power in Prime Minister Gandhi's Con- gress Party government. Approval by the upper house and at least half the 22 state governments is also required, but the party's majority in the upper house and its control of most state governments makes these steps largely a formality. The amendment unequivocally establishes the Prime Minister as the supreme authority in the government and insti- tutionalizes many repressive measures in effect since Gandhi imposed a national emergency in June 1975. The amendment sharply curtails the power of the judiciary to challenge legislative and executive actions and to safeguard civil liberties. It also enables the government to ban groups and activities it considers "anti-national." During the next two years, Gandhi is authorized to make additional constitutional changes under the pretext of re- moving "difficulties" that stand in the way of implementing the new amendment. For more than a year, she has claimed that revi- sions in the 26-year-old constitution are needed to speed impor- tant social and economic changes. Many features of the new amendment, however, indicate that Gandhi's chief aim is to retain the vast power she has held on a temporary basis since establishing the emergency. On the basis of her performance during a decade of rule, it seems unlikely that Gandhi will impose far-reaching policies aimed at redressing the basic inequities in Indian society. Parliamentary action on the amendment was preceded on October 30 by a government announcement that the life of the present parliament will be extended at least until March 1978. The present term--already extended for one year--was to expire next March. The move was denounced by the opposition parties, most of which are boycotting the current session. BURUNDI: Late Item of November 2, 1976 President Micombero and Chief of Staff General Ndabe- meye were ousted last night by a military coup, according to the US embassy in Bujumbura. 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 The local radio has been playing martial music, ex- cept for a brief announcement that "responsible officers" have taken over to get rid of "anti-national elements" whom Micombero has allowed to creep to the top. All government and party organs have been abolished and the cabinet fired. Bujumbura appears quiet and normal, although the roads are still blocked and the airport is closed. Further announcements will presumably be made in the next day or so. The embassy's tentative view is that almost the whole officer corps probably got together to plan a peaceful takeover when the senior officers became fed up by Micombero's absenteeism, and misrule and by the scope of corruption. If the senior officer corps in general is behind the coup, there probably will not be much change in Burundi's moderate orientation, though there may be an increase in rhetoric about patriotism, sacrifice, and perhaps about "socialism." BURUNDI: Situation Report Burundi remains quiet following the military's take- over on Monday from the Micombero government. The local radio yesterday announced that the armed forces had set up a 29-man council to run the country, assisted by an executive committee to carry out its policy directives. The council is headed by Colonel Jean Bagaza, who apparently led the coup. In suspending the constitution, the council said its mission will be "to redefine national policy, re-establish order, and rid the government of incompetence." It has also pledged to respect the charters of the UN and the Organization of African Unity and to pursue a foreign policy of good-neigh- borliness. US observers have considered Colonel Bagaza friendly but of modest ability. He attended the Belgian Royal Military School in 1971 and since 1972 has served as deputy chief of staff. Bagaza has made official visits to China and the USSR to arrange for military assistance and training. Yesterday's radio announcement said the military had no other choice but to take control because Micombero had as- sumed excessive power and failed to address the country's 25X6 25X6 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 pressing political and economic problems, and because corruption was rife. Burundi, a former Belgian colony on the eastern bor- der of Zaire, was the scene of violent tribal feuding in 1972, that resulted in approximately 200,000 killed. We see no in- dicators that Bagaza's coup will trigger any new outburst of such tribal violence. EAST GERMANY: Economic Policy An exchange of jobs by two of East Germany's top economists following last Friday's leadership shake-up will strengthen party control over the implementation of its eco- nomic policies. Guenter Mittag steps down as first deputy chairman of the Council of Ministers and returns to the far more power- ful post of party secretary for economic affairs--a job he held from 1963 to 1973. Mittag, 50, has long been acknowledged as the party's economic wizard. He is a prominent member of the group of younger technocrats that has spearheaded East Germany's efforts to modernize industrial production and decentralize planning and administration. Mittag's replacement on the Council of ministers is Werner Krolikowski, who has held the party secretariat position for economics since Mittag's departure three years ago. As party economic boss, Krolikowski has been a tough taskmaster, but he probably has lacked Mittag's broader managerial skills and energy, which apparently are now called for. With the shift of the key party post from Krolikowski to Mittag, the latter has gained political ground. Both men, however, retain their policy-making posts on the Politburo, where party chief Honecker may well want to take advantage of Krolikowski's proven tough approach to the resolution of con- flicting economic interests. In an address to the parliament on Monday, Prime Minister Stoph called for more effective per- formance from all state and economic organs. Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 = Approved For Release 2008/07/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 The economic leaders face some tough sledding. In addition to chronic problems in distribution and power short- ages, East Germany faces other difficulties over the longer term. As an exporter of manufactured goods and a net importer metals, grains, and other raw materials, it has been of fuels , hit unusually hard by competition from industries in other com- munist countries since the early 1960s, by a growing scarcity of cheap raw materials, and by the mounting preference of its major East European customers for Western machinery and equip- ment. In addition, East Germany is now being forced to im- 25x1 port grain from the West to compensate for its own reduced out- ' s goal of put due to this year's severe drought. The regime cutting the 1976 trade deficit and its es of improving the consumers' lot are thus in trouble. 25X1 CHILE: Withdrawal From Andean Pact Chile's withdrawal from the Andean Pact on October 30 wil open new economic opportunities but at the cost of losing some privileges it enjoyed under the seven-year-old pact with Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. Unfettered by Pact restrictions, Chile is now free to 25X1 reduce tariffs and to court direct foreign investment on any terms it can get. Chile wants foreign capital and lower-cost im- ports to increase economic growth and to help reduce inflation. As a price of withdrawal, Chile forfeits future exclusive manu- facturing rights for supplying the member countries under the Pact's petrochemical and light engineering sector programs. A Joint Andean Pact - Chilean committee has been es- tablished to oversee Chilean cooperation with the Pact in pro- duction, trade finance, and technology. Chile has agreed to im- plement the planned Andean road transportation system, and to honor Pact policies promoting indigenous multinational enter- prises. Chile's access to loans from the Andean Development Corporation will not be affected. Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 Chile believes its economic and political interests can be better served by association with the River Plate Basin countries--Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Over the past three years, Chile's trade with these nations has been twice that of trade with the Andean Pact countries, exclud- ing Bolivia, a member of both groups. Chile has already accepted observer status in the River Plate Basin Group. 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8 Approved For Release 2008/07/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8 4 Top Secret (Security Classification) 0 1 Top Secret (Security Classification) 1 0 0 1 1 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010006-8