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December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
May 10, 2007
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November 8, 1976
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ved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A 950001 4-9 AdW AOT ROUTING TO: NAME AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 1 2 3 4 ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPAR E REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION COMMENT FILE RETURN CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE Top Secret '2A 3 (Security Classification) 25x1 CONTROL NO Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE Monday November 8, 1976 CI NIDC 76-261C 1 DA rev ev corrlpl 25X1 Top Secret (Secyroty Class 0 Aff Aff Aff Aliff Aff Aff AW- Aliff Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010014-9 Q Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Re Daily Cable for Monday, November 8, 1976. 25X1 The NID Cable is tor Me pulytMU 01 _L11J_UJ_1LL_L1ij 25x1 senior US otticials. LEBANON: Situation Report Page 1 EGYPT: Election Results Page 3 USSR-CHIN A: Relations Page 4 USSR-JAPA N: Return of MIG-25 Page 6 POLAND: Workers' Appeal Page 7 Commercial Aircraft Page 8 ITALY-FRANCE: Talks Page 9 CIEC Approaches Final Stages Page 10 Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For LEBANON: Situation Report. Lebanese President Sarkis yesterday issued a brief, 25x1 emotions appeal for all combatants to accept the supervision of Arab League peace-keeping troops. He gave no details, how- ever, on how he intends to use the League force, on its compo- sition, or when it will be deployed. Sarkis has been trying for weeks through private me- diation to settle the controversy over deployment of the force, and he apparently decided that any revelation of his plans would only complicate negotiations. He also recently has warned that he might proceed without the agreement of all disputants, and he may have decided, as his remarks implied, that he can no longer afford to delay reinforcing the cease-fire. I Although his address seemed intended mainly to reas- sure of Christians and Muslims that he would have direct con- trol over the League troops, it also contained an indirect warning that failure to cooperate with his peace-keeping efforts would only prolong the presence of foreign troops on Lebanese soil. In addition, he emphasized that resolution of Lebanon's conflict is directly linked to progress in solving the broader Middle East dispute and that he, therefore, also must consider his full responsibility to the Arab world. Christian, Muslim, and Palestinian leaders profess willingness to cooperate with Sarkis, but they continue to raise objections to his projected plans for using the Arab security force. Christian extremist Camille Shamun said on Saturday that the Palestinians had failed to comply with the provisions of the Riyadh agreement that called for them to withdraw from their positions. Arab security forces, he said, should imple- ment those withdrawals before trying to enter "peaceful areas where no incidents have taken place"--a reference to the areas of Christian control. Shamun's son has also announced that the Christians will not hand their weapons over to Arab League troops. D The more moderate Phalangist Christians are appar- ently willing to accept units of the Arab security force in Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Relo Christian areas, but even they have specified that the troops must be withdrawn immediately in case of "incidents." The Phalangists held a "military review" gn Saturday, including a parade of tanks and armored cars--presumably an effort to stress their ability to police their own areas. I Leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt is still stressing that withdrawals have to be balanced between both sides, and saying that it is "illogical and unacceptable" to hand over heavy weapons until a "national understanding" has been reached on the problems--including the need for political, economic, and social reforms--that brought about the civil war in the first place. I iAlthough Damascus announced on Friday that it was p acing As troops in Lebanon at the disposal of Sarkis as mem- bers of the Arab League force--which would have enabled Sarkis to begin moving those troops into contested areas--no effort has as yet been made to use the security forces to enforce the Riyadh agreement. The Christians apparently believe such a move is im- minent, however, and that the troops will move from Jazzin to Sidon, open the roads from Sidon to Beirut and from Alayh to the airport, and take up positions along Beirut's confrontation line. Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Rel - 9500010014-9 25X1 President Sadat on Saturday asked Prime Minister Salim to form a new cabinet following receipt of parliamentary election returns giving the pro-government slate a strong majority. The new cabinet will probably be named today. I Salim submitted his resignation as a formality after Sadat's inauguration to a second term on October 16, but he was asked to stay on in a caretaker role until the parliamentary election. Near-final returns give the pro-government organiza- tion within the Arab Socialist Union 275 of the People's Assem- bly's 348 elected seats. Twelve additional seats are reserved for appointment by Sadat. Although the ASU is Egypt's only legal political party, candidates were permitted this year for the first time to form opposition groups within the party and to run openly on opposition platforms. Members of the ASU's leftist organiza- tion have taken only two seats; the rightist organization, 12. Independents running outside the sponsorship of any ASU group won 48 seats. No comprehensive breakdown of the independents' political sentiments is available. Some will undoubtedly lean toward the government, but many are known leftists, and prob- ably a sizable number will take an opposition stance. Although no serious challenge to government policies is expected from the new Assembly, it may prove to be less manipulable than its predecessors. //The new cabinet will reflect few changes except in the economic sector. 25X1 25X1 ~Sadat and Salim are expected to replace the present ministers of finance and economy.// //Foreign minister Fahmi and War Minister Gamasy are expected to retain their portfoli 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Rel The message China has sent to the Soviet Union com- memorating the 59th anniversary of the Russian Revolution is essentially the same as one broadcast last year and contains no new initiatives. The government-to-government message reaffirmed China's standard position that contention over issues between the two countries should not interfere with normal relations. Unlike last year's statement, the current message makes no specific reference to continuing negotiations over disputed border areas. Meanwhile, Chinese officials attended Soviet recep- tions in Moscow, Peking, and elsewhere honoring the revolution. The Chinese representation at the Peking gathering was at the same low level as previous years. Peking's top diplomat in Moscow sat through the Kremlin's annual reception for the first time in several years. The leading Soviet speaker's comments on Sino-Soviet relations did not contain the sharply worded criticism of China and the late Mao Tse-tung that had prompted walkouts by Chinese envoys in the past. In his speech yesterday at the anniversary parade in Moscow, Soviet Defense Minister Ustinov--unlike Grechko las year--avoided mention of China. 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010014-9 Q Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For //The USSR and Japan reportedly will sign agree- ments today regarding the return of the MIG-25 flown to Japan by a Soviet defector in September. According to the US defense attache in Tokyo, a Soviet freighter is to arrive at the port of Hitachi on Sunday to pick up the aircraft.// //The return of the MIG-25 will remove a major ir- ritant in Soviet-Japanese relations, and both countries seem anxious to put the problem behind them. The USSR probably will go ahead with two planned Soviet ministerial-level visits to Japan dealing with economic matters that it had threatened to postopne. The Soviets were reluctant to carry out the threat because some useful business is likely to be transacted, and because the USSR, with its political standing in Tokyo so low, can ill afford setbacks in Soviet-Japanese economic cooperation. Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For R ease - 9500010014-9 25x1 POLAND: Workers' Appeal I Nearly 900 workers at an important tractor factory have petitioned party leader Gierek to reinstate the 126 workers fired after the demonstrations there last June. The factory was one of the main centers of opposition to the price increases proposed at that time. According to a Western news service, the petition stated that reinstatement of the workers is "indispensable in view of the nation's hard situation, the tense atmosphere in our plants, and difficulties with fulfilling our plans due to shortages of experienced members." The leadership has already tried to conciliate the public by freeing those workers imprisoned for rioting. A de- cision to rehire all who were dismissed would give the workers further proof of their new-found power and underscore the re- gime's weakness. On the other hand, government indifference or an un- willingness to budge could risk open confrontation. The Gierek leadership will probably seek a compromise solution such as reinstating only those workers who played relatively minor roles in the riots at the plant. Should the petition movement spread, however, the Polish leaders will probably have to take a tougher position to maintain public order and control. Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Rel ase 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A 29500010014-9 ' 25X1 Cuba has received its first Soviet-built YAK-40 short-range commercial passenger aircraft.I a passenger capacity of about 28, a range o about 1,200 kilo- meters (755 miles), and a short-take-off-and-landing capability.// //The YAK-40 has been a successful aircraft within the USSR, but export sales have been a disappointment. Aeroflot operates about 500 of the aircraft, mostly on feeder routes in rural Siberia. Despite a major push to export the aircraft in recent years, only about 50 have been sold--most to the East European market.// 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Rel CIA-PUP 29500010014-9 25X1 I //French Socialist leader Mitterrand and Italian Communist chief Berlinguer reportedly are planning to hold talks in Rome later this month.// Berlinguer's desire to meet with Mitterrand reflects the Italian Communists' policy of working for closer relations with West European Socialist and Social Democratic, as well as Communist, parties. During the last year, for example, the Italian Communists have held informal discussions with offi- cials of the British and Dutch Labor parties and with various Scandinavian Social Democrats. These contacts seem designed to underline the Italian Communists' professed commitment to democratic values--which Berlinguer has also sought to emphasize in joint communiques with the French, Spanish, and British Communist parties during the last year. In addition, the Italians apparently believe that such discussions will ultimately enhance the ability of the left to influence social and economic policies throughout Western Europe, particularly within the context of the EC. //While in Rome, Mitterrand may also arrange to meet with Italian Socialist leader Craxi. The latter will be aware, however, that Mitterrand is coming to Rome mainly to Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For R lease 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975AO 9500010014-9 : 25x1 see Berlinguer. Craxi. has been trying to broaden his own con- tacts with West European Socialists and Social Democrats in order to distinguish the Italian Socialists from the Communists and to underline the latters' continuing relations with Moscow// //Mitterrand's main motive is to enhance his image. He knows he is accepted by the French voters as a consumate politician and a strong alternative voice on domestic issues, but feels he needs to show that foreign leaders are willing to deal with him as an equal. Mitterrand would also like to be accepted as a spokesman on southern European affairs.// He recognizes that the evolution of the Italian sit- uation, and particularly Berlinguer's actions, could strongly influence French voters' assessments of the risks involved in supporting the left in the legislative elections in 1978. He may well expect reassurances from Berlinguer that the Italian Communists will not press their advantages too aggressively. CIEC Approaches Final Stages 1//The Conference on International Economic Coop- eration's agreement last month in Paris to schedule a ministe- rial review conference in mid-December does not obscure the fact that little progress was made at the Paris meeting in re- solving the issues.// //The delegates agreed to establish working groups that will meet this week in Paris, prior to the next, and per- haps last, round of talks before the ministerial conference. The groups have been directed to harmonize the points of view expressed in papers presented by the 19 developing and eight industrialized states participating in CIEC.// 1//The topics for discussion are far-ranging and include methods of increasing the developing countries' access to new markets, plans for increasing the pace of industriali- zation in the Third World, and the transfer of technology from the industrialized states to the developing states.// I -TI- /Sharp differences, particularly on energy and on debt re ie for developing countries, will be difficult to Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For 9 reconcile, and the developing states are unified in expressing growing pessimism--both publicly and privately--about achiev- ing their coals. //How well the industrialized countries will stick together in responding to these pressures remains unan- swered. Some West Europeans talk as though they believe prog- ress in CIEC '11 afft-ct the oil price decision in the December OPEC meeting. Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010014-9 Q Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9 Approve Release 2007/05/10CIA-RT3P79T009/ A029500~ 4-9 0 Top Secret (Security Classification) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Top Secret (Security Classification) Aar ''' ''''' AOW Approved For Release 2007/05/10: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9