NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010028-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 1, 2008
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: November 16, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Tuesday November 16, 1976 CI NIDC 76-268C
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State Dept. review
completed.
Top Secret' "':u"
(Security Classification)
Top Secret 25X1
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(Security
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National Intelligence DaiCable for Tuesday November 16, 1976.
The -YID Cable is for the purpose o
senior US officials.
CHINA: Soviet Gestures
informing
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SAUDI ARABIA: Views of King Khalid
LEBANON: Situation Report
IRAQ: Problems in the Military
SAUDI ARABIA: Western Sahara Dispute
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Page 6
CHINA: Earthquake
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PORTUGAL: PCP Congress
FRANCE: Defense Budget
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CHINA: Soviet Gestures
he Chinese have publicly and authoritatively rebutted 25X1
speculation that they might respond positively to recent Soviet
gestures toward Peking.
At a banquet last night honoring visiting Central Af- 25X1
rican Republic President Bokassa, Vice Premier Li Hsien-nien
lambasted the Soviets in such uncompromising terms that diplo-
mats from the USSR and its East European allies walked out of
the hall. The Soviet diplomats departed during Li's attack on
"wildly ambitious" and "criminal" Soviet actions in Africa, a
popular theme in Chinese propaganda for several months.
Had they stayed longer, the Soviet officials would 25X1
have heard Li, who is likely to become premier soon, accuse the
Soviets of creating "false impressions" about a relaxation in
relations between the two countries. Li asserted that Moscow's
"arrogant demands" that China change its policy were wishful
thinking and said that the Chinese would continue to carry out
Chairman Mao's "revolutionary line in foreign affairs," a
euphemism for China's opening to the US.
Chinese officials seem to recognize that the USSR has 25X1
had some success in portraying its initiatives since the death
of Mao Tse-tung two months.ago as serious efforts to reconcile
differences. The Chinese have been asserting privately that these
gestures are not genuinely conciliatory, and Li's remarks are
almost certainly intended to dispel widespread foreign press
speculation regarding the possibility of a thaw in Sino-Soviet
relations.
Since Mao's death, Chinese propaganda has remained
vociferously anti-Soviet. Given the foreign press speculation
about possible relaxation in relations with the Soviets, however,
the Chinese apparently believed it was necessary to address the
subject of the Soviet overture directly and in a manner designed
to put this speculation to rest.
It is likely that Peking does not find much that is
new in current Soviet blandishments. In any event, the Chinese
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are almost certainly disinclined to consider seriously the sensi-
tive issue of relations with the USSR while they are still busy
putting their domestic house in order and before they can assess-
the attitudes of the new US administration toward China.
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SAUDI ARABIA: Views of King Khalid
//Saudi King Khalid's interview last week with 25X1
Arnaud de Borchgrave of Newsweek was intended, according to
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud, as a signal to the US
president-elect that Saudi Arabia wishes to pursue a close, co-
operative relationship with the US.//
//The foreign minister added that his govern- 25X1
ment would like'to work closely with the US in finding a Mid-
dle East settlement and was thinking in terms of a long-term
petroleum agreement and price freeze in return for a Middle
East deal. Prince Saud did not expand his remarks but undoubt-
edly was aware that they would be passed on to US officials.//
//King Khalid adhered to standard Saudi foreign 25X1
policy positions. According to the Saudi-approved transcript of
the interview, he took the line that "peaceful coexistence"
between the Arabs and Israel is possible if:
--Israel withdraws from the occupied Arab territories.
--The legitimate rights of the Palestinian people are
recognized.
--The Palestinians are accorded self-determination.//
//Tn an obvious plea for US pressure on Israel, 25x1
as it enjoys the support of "major powers." 25X1
25X1
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LEBANON: Situation Report
The predominantly Syrian peace-keeping forces took up
most of their preassigned positions in the port and commercial
districts of Beirut yesterday without serious incident, occupying
the city's radio and television stations and main government
buildings.
Other units have moved into the Shuf region as far as 25X1
Dayr al Qamar and north on the Beirut-Tripoli coastal highway to
Amshit, site of the Christian-controlled radio station.
The security force is planning to enter Tripoli next, 25X1
possibly as early as tomorrow. The deployment of these forces
thus far has gone smoothly, but the Lebanese commander al-Haji_
and his staff expect a resurgence of Palestinian subversion and
terrorism in Beirut and elsewhere at some point. President Sarkis
reportedly has already established tribunals for Beirut, Tripoli,
Sidon, and Zahlah to try cases of political sabotage, kidnaping,
and murder.
Palestinian leaders appear to be trying to focus at- 25X1
tention once more on Israeli activities in southern Lebanon,
presumably to try to make a case for retaining their heavy weap-
ons. Palestinian and leftist press say that there were heavy
clashes over the weekend near Rumaysh and Bint Jubayl and a
battle at sea between Palestinian and Israeli boats off Sidon.
Fatah extremist Salah Khalaf asserted in a speech in 25X1
Tyre on Sunday that fedayeen were entitled under the Cairo ac-
cords to continue their operations against the Israelis and to
bear arms in the south. Another official said yesterday that the 25X1
Palestinians were st plan to counter Israeli activities
in southern Lebanon.
IRAQ: Problems in the Military
____]Iraq's unsuccessful effort to block Syria's Lebanon 25X1
policy may be having repercussions in the Iraqi army.
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Four Iraqi non-commissioned officers who had
defected to Syria were interviewed on television in Damascus
last week. They asserted that Iraqi soldiers were being forced
against their will to serve in Lebanon. The defectors' complaint
may be no more than a starred Svrian attempt to discredit the
Iraqi role in Lebanon,
/Iraq's difficulty in justifying its ineffectual 25X1
policies toward Lebanon and Syria is complicated by the resur-
gence of Syrian-instigated Kurdish guerrilla activity in northern
Iraq, which has caused the government to send military reinforce-
ments to the area. The regime is trying to suppress information
about the increase in Kurdish activity, a political issue that
could become more sensitive as news of Iraqi police and military
casualties becomes more widely known.//
The internal and external distractions that beset the 25X1
regime are occurring at a time when discussions of transition of
power are being stimulated by the recent decline in the health
of chronically ill President Bakr. Since late August, Iraqi
strongman Saddam Husayn has tried publicly to project an image
of dynamic leadership, particularly in the,area ~ofMthe domestic
for Bakr's early departure from the political scene.) 25X1
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SAUDI ARABIA: Western Sahara Dispute
As part of Saudi Arabia's increasingly active role
in intra-Arab affairs, Crown Prince Fahd has been traveling
in Morocco, Mauritania, and Algeria since Thursday in an ef-
fort to resolve the Western Sahara dispute.
Fahd has met with King Hassan and Mauritanian Presi-
dent Ould Daddah and arrived in Algeria yesterday to see Presi-
dent Boumediene. Fahd, who is accompanied by Foreign Minister
Prince Saud, will remain in the area most of this week. If the
discussions are encouraging, the three North African leaders
will be invited to Saudi Arabia for an all-out effort to re-
solve the Western Sahara issue.
Saudi Foreign Ministry officials say that they have
undertaken this diplomatic initiative because the success of
the efforts of Saudi leaders with respect to Lebanon enables
them to redirect their energies to North Africa, and because
the Saudis allegedly believe that Algerian President Boumediene
is now willing to find some solution.
In any event, we believe the prospects for a nego-
tiated settlement soon are remote. According to the Saudi ac-
count, Boumediene recently indicated that a settlement should
respect the views of all parties, including the Polisario
Front guerrillas, who are seeking independence for the terri-
tory. The Moroccans are unlikely to en.gaae in any negotiations
that give the Front a significant role.
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CHINA: Earthquake
north China, which registered 6.5 on the Richter scale, will
The earthquake yesterday in the Tang-shan area of
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further complicate the massive reconstruction and relief effort
underway in the Tang-shan area since late July. The epicenter
of the earthquake was 48 kilometers (30 miles) northwest of
Tang-shorn.
/The earthquake at Tang-shan on July 28, the
most severe in the world in this century, in terms of economic
damage, registered 8.2 on the Richter scale. Before that quake,
the economically important Tang-shan area included some 250
industrial installations, which previously produced more than
10 percent of China's total industrial output.//
According to the US liaison office in Peking, damage
from yesterday's earthquake in the capital area apparently is
light, and no American casualties have been reported. The Chinese
Foreign Ministry has not yet given diplomatic missions any in-
formation about the effects of the e
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PORTUGAL: PCP Congress
The congress of the Portuguese Communist Party which 25X1
ended on Sunday confirmed that the party has no intention of
softening its pro-Moscow attitude. Soviet representative Pono-
marev praised the party's adherence to Moscow and criticized im-
plicitly the French and Italian parties.
Some of the younger members of the newly enlarged Cen- 25X1
tral Committee may favor the independent line of the French and
Italian parties, but they are in no position to challenge Portu-
guese Party leader Cunhal, who was unanimously re-elected secre-
tary general and who dominated the four-day congress.
On the domestic front, Cunhal and most of the other 25X1
speakers criticized the Socialist minority government for advo-
cating "anti-worker" legislation and for purging leftists from
positions of influence, but they nevertheless maintained that
the future of democracy in Portugal depends on an accommodation
between the two parties.
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unhal asserted that dissension between the right and
left wings of the Socialist Party will benefit the Communists in
next month's local elections and will put pressure on Prime Min-
ister Soares to form a coalition. He urged a "popular front" gov-
ernment composed of Socialists, Communists, military officers,
and a few independents.
Soares has refused to form a coalition with either
the Communists or the parties to the right of the Socialists.
If forced to form a broader-based government, however, Soares
would probably turn to the centrist Social Democratic Party and
possibly the conservative Social Democratic Center rather than
to the Communists.
The Communists, aware that they have little chance of
entering the government soon, will work in the next few months
to broaden their political base. To this end, Cunhal warned
party militants in the closing rally to refrain from antagoniz-
ing non-party members and to work for a close alliance between
the people and the armed forces.
FRANCE: Defense Budget
r/The French National Assembly last week approved
increased outlays for defense when it adopted a 1977 defense
budget of 60 billion francs--about $12 billion at current ex-
change rates. The new budget is an increase of 20 percent over
that for 1976; the real increase is about 11 percent after in-
flation is taken into account.//
/Operating costs have taken a growing amount of
the defense budget over the past two years; this year they will
absorb about 59 percent. A major factor in this continued rise
is the pay raise ordered to alleviate morale problems in the
military. This, along with other rising personnel costs, will
make it difficult for France to meet its long-term goal of re-
ducing the percentage of the defense budget devoted to oper-
ating costs.//
/The Assembly approved the budget after Defense
Minister Bourges announced that an additional 1.3 billion
francs for procurement of new equipment for conventional forces
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had been added to the 58.4 billion franc budget. Opponents of
the proposed budget had earlier criticized it for devoting too
large an effort to paying off last year's debts rather than
looking ahead to future defense needs.//
//The 1.3 billion francs will allow the air force
to purchase more Mirage F-1 aircraft, the army to buy French
AMX-30 tanks, and the navy to complete construction of a sup-
port ship.//
//The nuclear programs did not receive as large a 25x1
share of the budget as they have in the past, but they retained
their favored status, with emphasis on improving the quality of
existing forces. Bourges told the Assembly that work will con-
tinue on the navy's M-4 submarine launched ballistic missile
and the S-3 intermediate range ballistic missile. He also said
that by 1980, the S-3 will replace the 18 older S-2 missiles.
The S-3 is designed to carry a one-megaton warhead to a range
of 2,100 nautical miles.//
//In addition, the current French SSBN program 25X1
apparently will be limited to five instead of six submarines.
The fourth SSBN probably will enter service next year, and con-
struction on the fifth already is underway. France's sixth
nuclear submarine eviAontly will form the first of a new class
of attack submarines. 25X1
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Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
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