NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029600010016-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 5, 2012
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: December 9, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Thursday December 9, 1976 CI NIDC 76-287C
w
Top Secret 25X1
(Security I
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, December 9, 1976.
T e NID Ca e is or e purpose o in orming
CONTENTS
JAPAN: Political Report
LEBANON: Al-Huss Named Prime Minister
Page 1
Page 1
USSR-NORWAY: Fishing Zone
Page 5
ARGENTINA: Military Retirements
Page 7
Page 9
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JAPAN: Political Report
to resign as a result of the setback suffered by his Liberal
Democratic Party at the polls on Sunday. Although Miki has not
said publicly that he will step down, party spokesmen have in-
dicated that his announcement is likely within the next few
days.
Japanese Prime Minister Miki has reportedly decided
likely to result in the selection of former deputy prime minis-
ter Fukuda as Miki's successor. Fukuda was endorsed by a solid
majority of Liberal Democratic members of the Diet before the
election. Despite some efforts by Miki's supporters to lay
part of the blame for the party's poor showing on Fukuda, he
apparently retains the backing of much of the rank and file.
Consultations now under way among party leaders are
a week to consult party members before announcing Miki's suc-
cessor. The party is likely to endorse its candidate at a gen-
eral meeting on December 20, with the Diet formally electing
Still, Liberal Democratic leaders will probably need
the new prime minister a few days later.
LEBANON: Al-Fuss Named Prime Minister
yesterday by Lebanese President Sarkis, has been a close ad-
viser to the President on economic matters. His appointment
appears to indicate that Sarkis would prefer a non-political
transition cabinet of technocrats, subject to his control, to
guide Lebanon's initial post-war reconstruction and reunifica-
tion.
Salim Ahmad al-Huss, who was named prime minister
cross section of Lebanese religious and political factions.
o ave decided against--a government that would include a
Several weeks ago Sarkis also considered--but seems
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Al-Huss is a Muslim, in keeping with Lebanese precedent, but
he is not known to have strong ties to Palestinian or Lebanese
leftist leaders.
Camille Shamun voiced support for the appointment, thus removing
a major obstacle to the confirmation of al-Huss as prime minis-
ter. Earlier Shamun had opposed a technocrat-dominated cabinet
and insisted that Christian factions be strongly represented in
any new government.
According to press reports, Christian faction leader
pressure to secure cabinet or other key positions for figures
loyal to their respective factions.
Both Muslims and Christian leaders may now step up
professional family. He holds advanced degrees in business and
economics and in the 1950s was a professor of economics at the
American University of Beirut. Prior to his appointment as prime
minister, al-Huss served as president of Lebanon's National Bank
Al-Huss is said to come from a middle-class Beirut
for Industrial and Touristic Development.
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ument Denied
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USSR-NORWAY: Fishing Zone
compassing nearly the entire Barents Sea, according to reports
recently circulated at the North Atlantic fishing conference
in Madrid. The Soviets are said to be taking this action in
anticipation of the diversion of their trawlers from waters
inside the 200-mile economic zone the EC plans to establish
next month.
The USSR may declare a restricted fishing zone en-
sentatives that his government might extend its fishing waters
on January 1. Both the Japanese and Polish delegates claimed
to be fully aware of Soviet intentions. The Polish delegate
confirmed that his government had received a note describing
Soviet intentions to establish protected zones in most of the
Barents Sea.
The Soviet delegate to the conference told US repre-
200-mile economic zone on January 1--the same day on which
Norway plans to establish a similar zone--apparently convinced
Moscow that it cannot remain a passive observer while west
European governments lay claim to rich fishing grounds in the
North Atlantic and adjacent seas.//
//The EC's announced intention to declare a
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//Norway's announced plan to establish a fish
daily speculated that further restrictions on Arctic fishing
could result in Soviet countermeasures, possibly including the
establishment of a 400-mile economic zone from which EC fisher-
men would be excluded.//
conservation zone in the waters around Svalbard also may have
contributed to Soviet anxiety. The Soviets catch approximately
450,000 tons of fish annually in these waters. A recent Oslo
//The Soviets may base their claim to the Arc-
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tic seas on a decree they issued in 1926 establishing juris-
diction over islands in various sectors of the high latitudes
between the Soviet mainland and the North Pole. The Soviets
have taken an uncooperative attitude on negotiating with Norway
an agreement resolving their conflicting positions concerning
the demarcation line in the Barents Sea.//
//Moscow's current tactic is to refuse to rec-
ognize that any jurisdictional dispute exists in this area, a
position that may harden during bilateral negotiations next
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WE5TERN SAHARA: Saudi Mediation
fort to mediate Algeria's dispute with Mprocco and Mauritania
over Western Sahara.//
//Saudi Arabia is making some progress in its ef-
ambassador in Jidda that he had found Boumediene surprisingly
tion effort in mid-November when he spent 11 days traveling in
the three North African countries. Fahd recently told the US
//Saudi Crown Prince FaYid initiated the media-
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moderate. The Algerian leader asked Fahd to tell Hassan that
Algeria is willing to seek a settlement agreeable to all par-
ties.//
because of the continuing dispute. Both the Algerians and the
Moroccans have begun to tone down their propaganda attacks
against each other.//
i ity of reaching a face-saving compromise. Algeria has be-
come increasingly isolated and Boumediene has lost prestige
//Boumediene may in fact be exploring the possi-
less be a long and difficult process. We have no evidence that
Boumediene has abandoned. his position that the rebel Polisario
Front, which is seeking independence for Western Sahara, should
be included in the negotiations. Morocco would oppose any nego-
tiations that included the Front, so long as the Moroccan armed
forces are still fighting the guerrillas.//
//Achieving a negotiated settlement will nonethe-
//Agreeing on a formula for consulting the Saharan
people in a referendum is another contentious issue. The Moroc-
cans are unlikely to accept Algeria's position that a referen-
dum must include the approximately 40,000 Saharan refugees in
Algeria.//
were counted in the Spanish census of 1974, which found the
native population of Sahara to be 74,900.//
eave t e territory in late 1975 and early 197.6. They probably
//Most of the refugees fled or were forced to
con ition that a full withdrawal of the Moroccan-Mauritanian
administration precede a referendum on self-determination in
Western Sahara.//
//Rabat is even less likely to accept Algeria's
detailed breakdown of Spanish census figures for the territory,
and the organization of a new census. The Moroccans almost cer-
is pro essed willingness to hold a referendum: a halt in guer-
rilla operations, consent by Spain to provide Morocco with a
//Hassan has attached conditions of his own to
tainly would rig any new census to ensure a favorable outcome
in a referendum.//
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ARGENTINA: Military Retirements
assignment process to retire several army generals who have
been at odds with his relatively moderate policies. Despite
some grumbling, there appears to be no serious move afoot to
thwart Videla's action.
sition, as used the annual December military promotion and re-
President Videla, in an effort to strengthen his po-
ac ive uty. At least three of them are prominent members of
the so-called hard-line wing of the army which favor harsh na-
tional security measures. They also oppose early conciliatory
gestures toward civilian groups.
It appears that a total of eight generals will leave
growing confidence of Videla and his supporters and apparently
is intended as a warning to others who hold such views.
The retirement of these hard-liners reflects the
lon positions, and their departure does not guarantee an end to
pressures from conservatives. Two of the most prominent hard-
line spokesmen remain in cabinet posts and two others command
key regional army corps.
The three retiring officers had occupied second-eche-
be in a far better position to proceed with important politi-
cal moves he reportedly favors. Chief among these is the relaxa-
tion of at least some of the stringent controls on organized
labor.
If Videla manages to check the hard-liners, he will
to begin the normalization of labor activities.
potentially, the most important source of serious resistance
to the junta. Growing worker restiveness is undoubtedly con-
tributing to the President's resolve to ease some of these con-
trols soon. Conservative officers have thus far blocked efforts
Labor is the most influential civilian force and,
BRAZIL: Public Spending Cuts
pu ic-sector investment in 1977 to control inflation and to
reduce the current-account deficit. The retrenchment will re-
inforce tight monetary and wage policies already in effect and
Brazil has announced that it will make major cuts in
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will help prevent further erosion of Brazil's credit standing
despite its large, growing foreign debt.
ment a out 20 percent compared with this year's level. Because
private investment, which accounts for about two thirds of the
total, probably will continue the growth of recent years, over-
all investment will decline only slightly.
The cuts announced so far will slash public invest-
will be achieved next year, we believe the austerity program,
if fully carried out, could halt economic growth in-1977. Con-
sumer spending has already fallen off considerably in recent
months.
Despite Brazil's assertion that some economic growth
ment will try to avoid a recession, it believes continued eco-
nomic constraints will be necessary to bring inflation under
control and maintain Brazil's credit standing abroad.
sumer errand as well as reduce investment. Although the govern-
The new fiscal constraints will further weaken con-
ment investment in petroleum and iron and steel, two areas
vital to Brazil's import substitution program, has been left
untouched.
men projects for electric power, transportation, and communi-
cations. Housing construction also will be curtailed, and some
agricultural development projects will be slowed. Only govern-
The spending cuts will fall most heavily on develop-
its hope of lowering the inflation rate to about 25 percent
from this year's 50 percent. We expect prices to increase by
at least 30 percent, largely because Brazil's indexing system
will sustain much of the inflationary momentum built up this
year. Rising import prices, particularly for-oil,- shortages of
some imported goods, and higher interest rates also will keep
the price level under pressure.
The government will probably be unable to realize
por controls and steadily growing export earnings, should cut
about $1 billion from this year's $6.0- to $6.5=billion current-
account deficit. This is a smaller cut than Brasilia expects.
Sluggish economic performance, along with direct im-
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Although net financing requirements will decline by a similar
amount next year, gross borrowing will remain near the 1976
level because of the rise in repayments scheduled for 1977.
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Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
~"
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