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December 16, 2016
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February 22, 2005
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Publication Date: 
December 30, 1976
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00975A029600010050-8.pdf326.38 KB
pr AV iii iii, ROUTING TO: NAME AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 1 K- -2 3 4 ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPAR E REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION COMMENT FILE RETURN CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE Top Secret 2 3 (Security Classification) Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: Thursday December 30, 1976 CI NIDC 76-304C w 25X1 NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions AMEMS 1 1 0 0 Top Secret 25 (Security Classification) F Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Approved ForiRelease 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00971AO29600010050-8 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday December 30, 1976. 25X1 T e NID Cable is or the purpose o Informing senior officials. PERU-CHILE: Potential for Conflict Page 1 Page 3 Page 7 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Approved Fort Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T009754 029600010050-8 PERU-CHILE: Potential for Conflict //The arms imbalance between Peru and Chile has increased steadily since December 1974, with recent major expenditures by Peru for armor, aircraft, air defense systems, and warships adding to bilateral tensions. Chile is especially apprehensive because it has been outstripped by Peru in ac- quisitions of all but naval materiel.// //Despite the buildup, both Peru and Chile re- main e ensive. The unresolved issue of a Bolivian corridor to the Pacific, however, as well as increasing emotion with the approaching centenary of the 1879 war in which Chile defeated Peru and Bolivia, will probably add to tensions.// //The DaiZy below prints excerpts from the con- cluding section of an Interagency Intelligence Memorandum issued today entitled "Peru and Chile: Reassessment of the Potential for Conflict."// //Peru's continuing faulty perception that Chile is able and willing to wage war has made Peruvians feel defensive, contributed to nationalistic sentiment, and increased the possibility of a Peruvian miscalculation. Some Peruvian officers continue to believe that the US is secretly arming Chile. Never- theless, we do not believe that Peru or Chile, particularly the latter, would initiate hostilities in the next year.// I //Chile probably would not attack Peru under any circumstances. With serious economic problems, both countries are focusing heavily on domestic concerns and must cultivate the good will of international trade and finance groups. An accidential border conflict, as opposed to deliberate attack or provocation, also seems less likely than two years ago since each side is aware of the risk and has taken steps to minimize it.// //We believe continued inability to resolve the corri or issue at present offers the most likely potential cause of a breakdown in relations between Peru and Chile. More- over, as Peru continues to acquire sophisticated military hard- ware and pursues its plan to double the army's strength in the next two years, the possibility for miscalculations will in- crease.// Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Approved For //The Chileans would not in our judgment seek a con ron ation over the corridor, but their recent refusal to discuss the Peruvian counterproposal indicates that neither will they permit Peru to impose conditions. Some Chilean officers are in fact convinced that the Soviet Union is encouraging Peru to use the corridor issue to provoke a clash with Chile.// //Our July 1974 Memorandum on the Peru-Chile or er question discussed some implications this issue held for the United States. These implications have changed insofar as US policy is affected by recent Peruvian arms purchases from the Soviet Union and the Chilean record in human rights practices.// //In addition, the increased importance of the Bolivian corri or question raises the possibility of US in- volvement as an arbiter. The 1929 treaty establishing the Peru- Chile border stipulated that the US President would settle any dispute over provisions of the treaty. The US government was not a party to the treaty and has never officially accepted the role of arbiter, but this does not negate the possibility that one or more parties might appeal to the President.// //While it is evident that, out of mutual self- interest, Jocotn Peru and Chile should welcome improved relations, the particular issues separating them are coupled with general notions of nationalistic pride. Resolution of their differences is further complicated by the positions of Bolivia and Ecuador.// //Aside from the difficult corridor question, the Bolivians are determined not to be victimized in a Chilean- Peruvian clash and are acquiring new weaponry to strengthen their defenses. They might even join in the conflict if they thought they could thereby secure an outlet to the sea.// //The government of Ecuador is displeased with Peru's refusal to renegotiate the boundary in the Amazon region, and according to one report might conceivably side with Chile in the later stages of any clash with Peru, thus compelling the Peruvians to fight on two fronts.// 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06%09 :: CIARD - Approved Forj //The arms buildup will continue throughout the area, an miscalculation or misperception on the part of Chile or Peru could conceivably lead to conflict. Nevertheless, both sides remain defensive. There appears to be little possibility that either country will initiate hostilities over the next year. Soviet comments on the incoming US administration are ocusing on the strategic aspects of Soviet-US relations. Gen- eral Secretary Brezhnev's endorsement of a summit meeting with President-elect Carter, which was reported yesterday by Tass, implies that the date for such a meeting may depend on ending the current impasse in negotiations on strategic arms limita- tions. I I Several weeks ago, Soviet media appeared to be.cau- ioning at a new administration in the US would not neces- sarily mean progress for Soviet-US relations. In a Pravda arti- cle on December 11, Georgiy Arbatov--the head of the USA Insti- tute--referred to a new skepticism in the US about Soviet pol- icy and concluded that trends during the US Presidential cam- paign could complicate future relations. The institute's jour- nal carried articles in its December issue describing a'"con- siderable shift to the right" in the US away from cooperation with Moscow. Now Arbatov places more emphasis on optimism about Soviet-US ties than on problems raised during the campaign, which he called "imaginary" and "unessential." In English-lan- guage broadcasts on Tuesday, he referred to US public opinion polls strongly favoring the easing of East-West tensions; on December 11, he had said the polls were pointing toward "in- creased distrust" of the USSR. Current Soviet commentary on the incoming administra- tion appears to be more evenhanded on individuals who have pre- viously been criticized in Soviet media, particularly Zbigniew Brzezinski. Yesterday's Pravda cited Brzezinski's support for SALT; other Soviet reporting has cited President-elect Carter's 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Approved Foil pledge to give priority attention to strategic matters. The President-elect's support for a weapons freeze has been re- ferred to as an example of a "positive attitude" toward nego- tiations to limit nuclear weapons. I I Brezhnev's remarks on future Soviet-US relations em- p asize he need for a SALT II agreement at the "earliest possible date." He said President-elect Carter has an "under- standing of the urgency" of the problem, and he appeared to link a summit meeting with progress on this issue. The Tass reference to a summit is noteworthy in view of the dearth of such references in recent months. I IFor the moment, Moscow seems bent on conveying the notion t a certain level of amity is essential in Soviet-US relations if only to facilitate communications on issues affect- ing bilateral strategic relations. Brezhenv's support for con- tacts at the highest level also reflects Politburo support for summitry as essential to a careful management of relations. 25X1 Approved For Release - - 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Approved Foil Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975 029600010050-8 25X1 CHILE: New Ambassador to US Chile's ambassador-designate to the US, Jorge Cauas, as been the most powerful civilian figure in Chile since April 1975, when he was given "super minister" status in economic af- fairs. He was responsible for formulating the economic recovery program that has been in effect for more than two years. I Cauas' stringent measures have been unpopular because of their severity and the adverse impact they have had on Chile's poor and middle class. Some military officers have not favored Cauas' policies, but he has bluntly defended his program, which has enjoyed a measure of success. Cauas' achievement is due in no small measure to his own competence and to his access to President Pinochet. 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Approved For 25X1 The timing of Cauas' assignment to Washington--coupled with Chile's recent release of prisoners--indicates that the Chilean government hopes to get a fresh start with the incoming US administration. Of perhaps equal importance is Chile's ap- parent desire to have in Washington an articulate advocate who will not merely parrot the official line. I The ambassador-designate's economic background will give him easy entree with international lending institutions. Approved For Release - - PV AV AV AV ii t'ecred For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8 Top (Security Classification) 1 1 (Security Classification) JAW Top Secret Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29600010050-8