NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029700010008-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 7, 2004
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: January 6, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Thursday January 6, 1977 CG NIDC 77-004C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday January 6, 1977.
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he NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior o icials.
CONTENTS
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USSR-IRAN: Nuclear Cooperation
USSR: Record Grain Harvest
PANAMA: Rounding Up Support
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SRI LANKA: Public Discontent
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USSR-IRAN: Nuclear Cooperation
oviet participation in Iran's economic
development is expanding to include the field of nuclear power.
Iran was the largest cash customer for Soviet Indus-
.
signed a $3-billion trade agreement several months ago. Iran
awarded more than $1 billion in construction contracts to the
USSR last year. Negotiations are continuing on expansion of
the Soviet-built steel plant at Isfahan and possible Soviet
participation in a second gas pipeline to supply Iranian cus-
tomers in Western Europe.
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I he expansion of economic ties has recently been
ma c e By positive political signals, despite continuing So-
viet criticism of Iran's huge military purchases in the West.
Following Iran's decision to return a Soviet defector late last
year, the Soviets abruptly halted clandestine broadcasts by
Iran's outlawed communist party. Iran also permitted a port
call by Soviet warships late last year as well as overflights
by TU-95 naval reconnaissance aircraft.//
I espite their mutual mistrust, both the USSR and
Iran have an interest in keeping their relations on an even
keel. For Moscow, the material benefits of the relationship
are important enough to warrant a degree of harmony. The USSR,
of course, also wants to have a reasonably friendly government
on its southern border. For Iran, the proximity of Soviet power
dictates an effort to ensure correct relations.
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The record grain harvest announced yesterday by the
Soviets--223.8 million metric tons--is attributable primarily
to good weather and some improvements in organization of the
harvesting.
The previous record was 222.5 million tons in 1973;
the poorest crop in the last decade was the 140 million har-
vested in 1975. As in the past, the 1976 crop will presumably
be subject to some post-harvest losses during transportation,
processing, and storage.
The USSR purchased an additional 12.6 million tons
o grain in 1976, despite the record harvest. Part of these
purchases stem from the poor 1975 crop, and 6.4 million tons
were purchased under the US-USSR long-term grain agreement,
which commits the Soviets to buy at least 6 million tons of
US grain annually until 1980.
Production of potatoes--the Soviets' most important
non-grain crop--is expected to be slightly more than 85 mil-
lion tons. Although this is about 5 percent below the average
for the past five years, supplies for consumers should be
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adequate. Potatoes supply nearly one tenth of per capita daily
caloric intake in the USSR and are also important as a live-
stock feed.
I I The Soviets have also announced an 85-million-ton
sugar beet crop, 3.5 million tons below the 1975 harvest. If
the sugar content of the beets is average, the USSR will fall
about one half million tons short of its plan to produce 9.7
million tons of sugar. The slack will be taken up by imports
from Cuba.
The figure announced for the 1976 cotton harvest is
8.3 million tons--only 100,000 tons short of the 1974 record.
Moscow's activity in the world cotton market dropped signifi-
cantly in 1976, apparently because of a dip in Soviet cotton
output in 1975. Exports probably will rise in 1977 when last
year's near-record crop is available.
PANAMA: Rounding Up Support
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(Latin American support for Panama's position,
particularly strong a few years ago, has become more qualified.
The conservative governments of Chile, Argentina, and Paraguay
are reserved in their backing. Other countries 25X1
I have expressed private misgivings about
Panama's ability to manage the canal in an orderly way.//
Publicly, however, almost all the governments in
the hemisphere are likely to express support for Torrijos in or-
der to show regional solidarity. Even the more conservative
countries have backed demands for a new treaty incorporating
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I Prime Minister Bandaranaike is having difficulty deal-
ing wi abor unrest and public discontent that could damage
her prospects in the parliamentary election later this year.
Some of her advisers are urging her to postpone the election or
to issue more emergency regulations, but she is reluctant to
follow either course.
[Among the Prime Minister's problems are:
--A two-week-old rail strike, which shows no signs of
ending.
--A strike threat by several government unions, and a slow-
down by government physicians that has persisted for two
months.
--Closure of the universities since a student was killed in
November during demonstrations over high unemployment.
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The Prime Minister's party has lost 10 of 12 by-elec-
tions held since the last general election in 1970. Although
many of the losses were in opposition strongholds, she is well
aware that her popularity is slipping and that no incumbent gov-
ernment in Sri Lanka has been re-elected in the last 20 years.
I Should labor problems worsen, the Prime Minister might
we consider new emergency regulations. She has, however, been
gradually rescinding emergency regulations imposed to deal with
insurgency in 1971 and would be hesitant to reimpose them in an
election year.
To postpone the election, which must be held by Septem-
Der, she would have to amend the constitution. She probably could
not muster the parliamentary votes to do so. She could not count
on the votes of all members of her own coalition--particularly
the Communists, who are unhappy with her stand against the strik-
ers--and even if she had such backing she would need some opposi-
tion support as well.
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