NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029800010008-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2005
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: February 4, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Friday February 4, 1977 CG NIDC 77-028C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, February 4, 1977.
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The NID a Ee is for the purpose of informing
senior US o icials.
ETHIOPIA: Attempted Coup
FRANCE: Chirac Rejects Compromise
EGYPT: Sadat Lays Down the Law
WEST GERMANY - TURKEY: Arms Sale
USSR: TU-144 Introduction Delayed
CUBA-ANGOLA: Ship Convoy Returning from Angola
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OPEC: Payments Surplus Rises;
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ETHIOPIA: Attempted Coup
/Ethiopia's ruling military council chairman
e eri was executed and five other council members were either
executed or killed as a result of the fighting among the mem-
bers yesterday. According to an official announcement, they
were executed for being connected with the Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Party.//
//The party, an underground Marxist group,
recentiy increase its antigovernment activities in Addis
Ababa.
//Mengistu, leader of the radical leftist faction,
apparently has emerged as the strongest figure in the govern-
ment. Rivalries within the council will continue. however. and
another outbreak of fighting is possible.
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FRANCE: Chirac Rejects Compromise
compromise that would have allowed embattled government forces
to enter next month's important Paris municipal election with
a show of unity.
Gaullist leader Jacques Chirac has again rejected a
Chirac on Tuesday turned down an offer by Minister
of Industry D'Ornano, an Independent Republican and President
Giscard's personal choice for mayor of Paris, to prepare joint
lists in sectors of Paris that are vulnerable to the Socialist-
Communist opposition. Chirac said he would run his own compet-
ing lists and that he would personally stand for office in the
fifth district, where he is assured of election.
I I Chirac clearly wants the municipal council stacked
with is own supporters. At the same time, he said that in the
"unlikely event" D'Ornano's lists are better placed than his
to defeat an opposition candidate in the second round, he will
withdraw his candidates.
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The Socialist-Communist alliance is itself deeply
ivi e and so far not in a position to profit from the dis-
array of the majority. The Communists are more strongly en-
trenched in Paris than the Socialists and have been unwilling
to compromise on joint lists or a single candidate for mayor
of Paris.
I IThe Communists have their own candidate, as do the
e t wing Socialists who dominate the Paris federation of the
Socialist party. Although chances are good that the left will
ultimately come up with a joint slate, current predictions are
that Paris will remain a center-right city.
I I A victory for the center-right in Paris should off-
set the osses the coalition is likely to suffer in other mu-
nicipalities--losses for which Giscard would bear the major re-
sponsibility. It should also consolidate the Gaullist position
as the dominant party within the governing coalition.
I I Chirac is likely to be elected mayor. The post should
keep him in the limelight as he conducts a vigorous campaign
for the 1978 election and serve as a stepping stone to a pos-
sible bid for the presidency in 1981. Should the opposition
win in 1978, Chirac would have in the Paris mayoralty a power
base from which he could rally anticommunist forces against
the left.
The Gaullists probably will be even less accommodat-
ing parlimentary partners for Giscard's coalition, and the
President's reform program probably will suffer accordingly.
Although Giscard and Chirac still have as many reasons to work
out a modus vivendi as they have in the past, the balance ap-
pears to be shifting in Chirac's favor.
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 EGYPT: Sadat Lays Down the Law
I President Sadat failed to offer any quick or easy
remedies o the economic hardships facing the Egyptian people
in a major address yesterday. The speech--billed as Sadat's
response to the riots that shook Egypt some two weeks ago--
stuck to the themes presented earlier in the week during the
President's meetings with groups of educators, students, and
workers. At those gatherings, Sadat blamed the disturbances
on a conspiratorial leftist minority.
I I In a vote of confidence for the most prominent mem-
ers in is government, Sadat offered public thanks to Vice
President Mubarak, War Minister Gamasi and Prime Minister
Salim for their help in controlling the civil unrest. During
the demonstrations, the Prime Minister was widely blamed for
Egypt's economic ills and there were some calls for his resig-
nation. Sadat is more dependent than ever on the influence
that these men have within the military and security services.
I Sadat promised that his government would concentrate
on prove ing housing and food, and would strengthen measures
to collect taxes from the rich. Lacking anything more concrete
in the way of immediate relief, Sadat stated he would allow no
repetition of the disturbances and would present a tough law-
and-order bill for public referendum next week.
I IThe new security measures are not likely to
set well w some Egyptians, particularly students and other
politically sophisticated groups which have enjoyed greater
freedoms under Sadat's recent political liberalization program.
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A major test of Sadat's get-tough policy will occur
on e ruary 12, when Egypt's schools are scheduled to reopen
after the midyear break.
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The West German cabinet has authorized the government
to underwrite most of the financing for a large commercial arms
deal between German firms and Turkey that reportedly will in-
clude 182 Leopard tanks, some 6,500 Milan antitank missiles,
and other support equipment. Reports of the price vary but,
according to the US embassy in Bonn, the sale will be worth
$500 million.
I Credit terms had been the major stumbling block dur-
ing aiscussions over the past several years. Negotiations be-
gan in earnest last fall when the German government, prodded
by its defense and foreign ministries and conscious of the
economic difficulties faced by some German arms manufacturers,
indicated a willingness to consider providing official backing.
Bonn's support of the sale is in keeping with West
erman arms aid policy toward Turkey over the last two years.
The German government cut off all military aid to Turkey fol-
lowing the Cyprus crisis but allowed commercial sales to start
again in late 1974 and resumed military assistance soon after.
I I The purchase underscores Ankara's desire to diversify
its arms sources, although West Germany has indicated that it
will not replace the US as Turkey's main arms supplier. Since
the US arms embargo in 1975, Turkey has been negotiating with-
out much success for military assistance and arms purchases
from a number of West European and Middle Eastern countries.
Turkey is the seventh country to order the highly re-
garded Leopard tank. The purchase of 182 Leopards, however, is
not likely to have much impact on Turkey's armored units, now
organized around some 3,600 older US-built M-47s and M-48s. The
Leopards probably will be used to form a separate armored bri-
gade rather than be integrated into existing units.
USSR: TU-144 Introduction Delayed
The Soviets have been forced to delay introducing
eir troubled supersonic transport, the Tupolev'TU-144, into
commercial passenger service. The aircraft had been scheduled
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to enter service by the end of 1976, but on January 7 Civil
Aviation Minister Bugayev said it must undergo technical tests
for another year.
I un December 1975, the TU-144 began carrying freight
and mail twice a week in what was billed as the world's first
scheduled supersonic service, but by June these flights had
been cut back to one a week. In his January statement, Bugayev
set no new date for the aircraft's entry into passenger service,
nor did he explain the reason for the additional tests.
I deficiencies in
airframe design prevent the aircratt rom ying the distance
required with a full payload. The aerodynamic design of the
TU-144 is at the same general level as Western technology, but
a combination of factors has probably resulted in higher than
anticipated fuel consumption at supersonic speeds. The result-
ing low propulsion efficiency would reduce the aircraft's range
capability.//
//The Soviets say the TU-144 with full payload
has a range of 6,500 kilometers, but this appears to be opti-
mistic. A range of 4,900 kilometers for its current commercial
operations would be more likely.//
//The Soviets are seeking Western technology that
can extend the range of the TU-144. A $17-million contract has
been proposed between Lucas Aerospace, Ltd., of the UK, and the
Soviet trade organization, Litsenzintorg, to design and develop
an electronic control system for the plane's turbofan engine.
A version of this engine powers the Backfire bomber.//
//The contract--which must be approved by the
coordinating Committee of the Consultative Group of Nations
that oversees defense-related sales to communist states--appears
to have been facilitated by the UK-USSR Agreement for Scientific
and Technological Cooperation, signed in 1975. The agreement
covers the aviation industry, including automatic control sys-
tems for gas turbine engines.//
I //More recently, the Soviets have suggested that
in exchange or British and French technical cooperation, they
would promote Concorde's access to certain communist and devel-
oping countries and participate in a cooperative study of a
second-generation supersonic transport.//
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//The proposed British control system, which will
be based on the electronic fuel control system developed and
successfully tested on the Concorde, monitors engine performance
throughout flight and makes the most effective use of engine air
flow and fuel consumption. Successful integration of this tech-
nology into the TU-144 would require at least one to two years.
It would probably not solve the range problems, however, unless
it was accompanied by significant design changes to reduce drag.//
//The same control system could possibly be adopted
for the Backfire's engine resulting in improvement in the air-
craft's supersonic range and payload capability. The Soviets
could exercise this option sometime during Backfire's production
run.// 25X1
CUBA-ANGOLA: Ship Convoy Returning from Angola
//A convoy of Cuban ships--the sixth since last
spring--is returning from Angola and should arrive in Cuba in
mid-February. It apparently consists of the same four ships
that traveled from Cuba to Angola early last month.//
I There are indications that the Cubans are interested
in beginning a dialogue on their own terms with the US. Presi-
dent Castro was thought to have broached the subject of Cuban
withdrawal from Angola on a TV' program broadcast in Sweden
this week, but actually the interview took place last summer.
I ISeveral high-ranking Cubans have pointedly indicated
Havana s receptivity to a rapprochement with the US. Carlos
Rafael Rodriguez, number-three: man in the Cuban hierarchy, said
during a British TV interview on Wednesday that "Cuba would
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be willing to discuss anything with the US," but he also made
the point that Havana would not "renounce its political and
ideological positions." The same general line was taken by
Cuba's ambassador to Mexico in a press interview this week.
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OPEC: Payments Surplus Rises
The combined surplus of the members of the organiza-
tion o etroleum Exporting Countries on foreign trade in goods
and services rose to $40.1 billion last year as oil exports
reached new highs. While higher oil prices helped boost reve-
nues somewhat, the economic upturn in the West and a petroleum
inventory build-up in anticipation of the January 1 price hike
were the main factors.
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I IThe growth of OPEC imports from the West slowed last
year despite increased earnings. Financial constraints in some
OPEC countries, a slowdown in the implementation of development
plans, and transportation bottlenecks contributed to the slow-
down. Average prices for OPEC imports rose only 1 percent in
1976.
OPEC outlays for foreign services, insurance, and
treight rose substantially last year.
Despite the increase in the overall current-account
surplus, OPEC grant assistance fell to $1.6 billion last year--
a Si billion decline from 1975. Reduced payments to Syria,
Egypt, and Jordan and greater use of concessional lending ac-
counted for the decline. Saudi Arabia was the only major OPEC
country to maintain its level of grant aid last year; Kuwait,
Qatar, and Iraq cut their outlays sharply. The Saudis now ac-
count for 75 percent of total OPEC grant assistance.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates
accoun e for three fourths of the $40.1 billion combined OPEC
current-account surplus in 1976. Four OPEC members--Algeria,
Indonesia, Ecuador, and Gabon--were in deficit last year. Iran's
surplus increased by $2.5 billion in 1976 after a $9.8 billion
decline in 1975.
I IOPEC's current-account surplus probably will not rise
as year and may fall slightly if the Saudis increase produc-
tion sufficiently to hold the line on prices. We expect OPEC
oil export volume to rise by roughly 3 percent this year. Cou-
pled with an estimated average price rise on 6.5 percent for
1977, this will increase OPEC oil earnings by about $11.5 bil-
lion. The increased earnings are expected to be offset by a 13
to 20 percent rise in OPEC import expenditures.
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