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December 20, 2016
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April 13, 2006
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March 3, 1977
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.CIA-RDP79T00975A02990 100 -4 I op ecret?.~ a TO: NAME AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 1 (Security Classification) z 3 25X1 4 CONTROL NO. ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPARE REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION COMMENT FILE RETURN 1[ C IYIHR R+?: f FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE 25X Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE Thursday March 3, 1977 CG NIDC 77-050C '~ State Dept. review completed E 2 1 NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions 25X1 Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/03/06 :CIA-RDP79T00975A0~99oroD1 - -~ 25X1 gpproved For Release 2007/03/06 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029900010006-4 Approved For Release 2007/03/06 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029900010006-4 Approved For Intelli ence Dail Cable for Thursday, March 3, 1977. The NID Cab e is or e purpose o in o senior US of icials. RHODESIA: Maneuvering SOUTH AMERICA: Resentment of US UK: Delays Direct Elections CUBA: Trade Relations EAST GERMANY: New Berlin Toll Page 1 Page 2 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 SWEDEN: Split in Communist Party WORLD TIN: Producer-Consumer Meeting Page 9 Page 10 25X1 Approved For R lease 2007/03/06: CIA-RDP79T00975A0299 0010006-4 Approved For R RHODESIA: Maneuvering Legislation proposed by Rhodesian Prime Minister Smith o repea some racial discrimination measures may be defeated by the parliament. A vote on the bill is likely on Friday, and a two-thirds majority of the full 66-member legislature is neces- sary for approval. Twelve right-wing legislators from Smith's ruling party have indicated their opposition, and 13 blacks who say the measures do not go far enough have announced that they will abstain. The legislation includes a provision that would open up o non-whites most of the land in the half of Rhodesia's total area now reserved for whites. Smith proposed the measures as part of his e:Efort to begin nE:w settlement talks with "moderate" blacks. In a session of parliament yesterday, former defense minister Cowper announced that he was withdrawing his support from the government. Cowper, who resigned his post last month during a controversy over increased callups of civilians for military duty, accused Smith of indecision and of adopting watered-down measures. Although legislative setbacks and open criticism of Smith from members of his party are unusual, it seems unlikely that the rightwingers will seek to oust Smith from his position. No other white political figure seems to have sufficient stature to pose a serious challenge to the Prime Minister. 25X1 Approved For R lease 2007/03/06: CIA-RDP79T00975A02 900010006-4 Approved For (Release 2007/03/06: CIA-RDP79T00975~029900010006-4 US policies on human rights and nuclear proliferation are arousing deep resentment in southern South America. The US stance on these issues seems certain to add to the already pro- nounced tendency of Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, and to some extent Brazil to draw closer together because of their common problems and perceptions of the outside world. //The US decision to reduce aid to Argentina and Uruguay because of human rights abuses has drawn an angry reac- tion in both Buenos Aires and Montevideo. Both governments an- nounced their intention to refuse the lower levels of aid still Approved Fob Release 2007/03/06: CIA-RDP79T00975 029900010006-4 Approved Ford available to them. Uruguay termed the US move unjustified inter- ference in its internal affairs; both Argentina and Uruguay said the action could aid the cause of subversion.// //Brazil, already smarting over US efforts to limit its access to foreign nuclear technology, is taking a dim view of the cuts in aid to its neighbors. Though not directly affected, the Brazilians undoubtedly see the reductions as an- other example of US "intrusion" in the area's affairs.// //Brazil's military-backed government, moreover, may we e ieve that it too could come in for serious US pres- sure on human rights. IIS efforts to influence the Brazilians on the nuclear issue also are having an unsettling effect in Argentina. Instead of applauding a move that could conceivably arrest the nuclear progress of their traditional Brazilian rivals, the Argentines are expressing solidarity with Brazil. The Argentines obviously realize that their own imports of nuclear equipment could make them susceptible to similar pressures. Argentina may see in the present situation an oppor- tunity o rebuild its regional influence by capitalizing on re- sentment of US efforts. In addition to expressing solidarity with the Brazilians, Argentina is quietly suggesting itself as an alternative source of nuclear know-how and natural uranium for the region. Argentina's nuclear technology, though limited by world standards, is the most advanced in the region and its uranium is plentiful. The Argentines are also reviving earlier proposals for nuclear cooperation with Brazil and Chile, with Argentina playing a central role. The idea may be hard for the Brazilians to accept, but the Argentines seem serious about exploring it. The sense of physical isolation from most of the world t at as always existed in southern South American has been ac- centuated in recent years by the growing distaste in the US and in some European countries for the kinds of governments that hold sway in the region. The latest US actions will increase this sense of isolation. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Approved For Rel All the countries of the area are administered by con- serva ive regimes that are run or dominated by the countries' military establishments. Most of the regimes came into being in response to real or perceived threats from the left, and all justify their methods by citing a continuing threat from commu- nism. The leaders of these countries believe they are being . a andoned by the US, the country that had frequentl warned them in the ast of the dangers of communism. 25X1 UIC: Delays Direct Elections //The British government decided last week to dc~lay for three months the introduction of legislation on dire~~t elections to the European Parliament. The decision reflects thE: growing weakness of the Callaghan government in Parliament acid the fears of Labor Party leaders that the issue will further ac/gravate di- visions within the party.// //The cabinet, strongly divided over this issue,. agreed last week only to issue a white paper next month that wil~_ outline various procedural options for the elections. Althoucfh a cabinet spokesman reaffirmed the government's pledge to "use its best en- deavors" to meet the spring 1978 target date set by the European Community for the elections, the Labor government's failure to move quickly on this issue could seriously undermine chances for meeting the deadline.// //The eight other EC members expect no problems in ratify- ing direct elections bills and passing the necessary implement- ing legislation. They, as well as the EC Commission, are likely to bring substantial pressure on the Uh' to act in time.// //The decision to issue the white paper should delay a fi- nal vote on the direct elections bill at least until late summer. As a constitutional issue, the bill must be debated by the House of Commons sitting as a committee, thus making the measure par- ticularly vulnerable to filibuster. The House of Lords also could extensively revise the bill.// Approved For ~2elease 2007/03/06: CIA-RDP79T00975~A029900010006-4 Approved For //Additionally, Conservative Party spokesmen, in pushing for early action, have pointed out that boundaries must be set for the 81 election districts following passage of the bill, and that this will probably take several more months.// //Although the government can probably count on enough Con- servative and Liberal votes to assure passage of the bill, Labor Party leaders are afraid that raising the issue now could pro- voke a major split in their party. Six cabinet ministers are on record as vigorously opposing direct elections to the European Parliament, and the issue is likely to revive substantial anti- EC feelings among Labor backbenchers in Parliament. The Labor Party conference also came out strongly against direct elections last year.// IIf the British retain their usual election sys em in representatives to the European Parliament, the Conservative Party would probably win a disproportionate majority of the UK's 8l seats.// //The number of Labor seats would be greater under a pro- portional representation system, but adoption of such a system would only reinforce pressures from the Liberals and some minor parties for the use of a similar scheme in elections to the House of Commons. CUBA: Trade Relations //In the first full year of trade since the lifting of US restrictions, Cuban purchases from the subsidiaries abroad of US companies reached $213 million in 1976. Trade might have been even higher if there had not been a severe hard-cur- rency crunch in Cuba in the second half of the year. More than two thirds of the trade was with US subsidiaries in Canada, Argentina, and the UK.// //Cuban purchases from US subsidiaries last year were equa o 17 percent of estimated Cuban imports from the Approved For Release 2007/03/06: CIA-RDP79T00975A029~900010006-4 Approved For West. About three fifths was grain and the rest was manufactured goods. US subsidiaries purchased $2.2 million in goods from Cuba, mostly tobacco and molasses.// //Cuba can now obtain most US products i~= wants rom US subsidiaries abroad. The Cubans continue, how~wer, to talk to US parent companies about trade possibilities if US- Cuban commercial relations are normalized. Discussian:~ have been held with at least 17 US companies in the past 18 months.// //The Cubans apparently are trying to soften Ameri- can usiness support for the US embargo and open the i1S marke to Cuban sugar. Cuba plans a major expansion in sugar t~roduc- tion during the next several years. EAST GERP~lANY: New Berlin Toll East Germany this month has begun charging a. "street ee' of about $4.20 for nearly all automobiles that enter East Berlin from West Berlin. The fee nearly doubles the cost of a trip through the wall. Allied vehicles are not affected by the East German measure. An East German official defended the measure by noting at is country imposes a similar fee on all other travelers to East Germany. He said it would be "inconsistent with East Germany's sovereignty and the status of its capital city" if visitors to East Berlin continued to be exempt. The official also declared that the step is not meant to "increase tensions." This action is the latest in a series of East G r e m an attempts since the beginning of the year to erode the special status of East Berlin, over which the East Germans have long claimed full and exclusive sovereign-ty. East Germany i,~ also seeking to curtail Western contacts with its citizens, although it is not yet clear whether the higher fee will cut do`an sig- nificantly on traffic to East Berlin. The East Germans will earn additional hard currency-- a ways in short supply in their country. The amount of hard cur- rency that they will probably take in (about $2.5 mi111.on) sug- gests, however, that economic considerations were not