NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029900010040-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: March 23, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Wednesday March 23, 1977 CG NIDC 77-067C
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
1
DIA review(s) completed.
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State Dept. review completed cc~~UU~LLtyy C ssification
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday. March
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senior US officials.
CONTENTS
INDIA: Coalition to Govern
UK: Government's Prospects Improve
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Page 2
INDIA: Political
LEBANON: Situation Report
FRANCE: Municipal Elections
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Page 6
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INDIA: Coalition to Govern
I I The Janata Party in India apparently will form a coa-
lition government with the followers of former agriculture min-
ister Ram, who broke early in the election campaign with former
prime minister Gandhi who resigned today.
I I Members of Parliament of Janata and Ram's party will
meet in New Delhi on Thursday to choose a prime minister. The
prospective Janata led coalition has so far won 286 of the 542
lower house seats. Gandhi's Congress Party has won 146 seats as
the country of votes nears an end.
The four ideologically diverse parties that joi
d
ne
to form Janata may have difficulty formulating policies and
even in picking a 'prime minister and cabinet. The Congress
Party's defeat on the national level may result in the fall of
numerous Congress-led state governments as state legislators
scramble to get on the anti-Congress bandwagon. The selection
of Janata candidates for state elections will be another prob-
lem for Janata's disparate partners.
The four parties that make up Janata are:
--The Organization Congress, a moderate group that broke
with Gandhi in 1969. Its leader, Morarji Desai, is the
leading candidate for prime minister.
--The Jana Sangh, a Hindu nationalist party that has mod-
erated its radical policies in an effort to broaden its
support.
--The Indian Revolutionary Party, a coalition of a number
of groups that broke with Congress largely because of dis-
agreements in state politics.
--The Socialists, the most radical of the four, who are
prone to splitting over personalities and ideology.
Foreign policy was a minor issue in the campaign and
e new government is not likely to initiate any major shifts
in India's foreign relations. There may, however, be some dif-
ference in approach on several issues in which the US is inter-
ested, including relations with Moscow, nuclear weapons and the
Indian Ocean.
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Although the Indians probably will continue to rely
, on Soviet economic and military aid, the new government will
be more cautious in dealing with Moscow. Several leaders of
Janata, including Desai, have been openly critical of the 1971
friendship treaty with the USSR.
The USSR enjoyed close, cordial relations with Gan-
overnment and will view her defeat as a setback of major
dhi's
g
proportions. Moscow will try to maintain good relations with
whatever government emerges, but the atmosphere in Soviet-Indian
relations could chill noticeably.
I I Several important Janata leaders have long advocated
a nuclear weapons program for India. Although J. P. Narayan,
the party's elder statesman, is opposed to all such weapons,
the US may find India even less cooperative on nuclear issues.
The new government might take an even stronger stand
against foreign military activities in the Indian Ocean--includ-
ing those of US at Diego Garcia--because of the nationalistic
bent of several of its members.
Because India has a huge population and is a leader
among the developing nations, the problems Gandhi's government
encountered with a vigorous birth control program may have in-
ternational implications. Gandhi's sterilization program may
have been the single most important cause of her de:-eat.
UK: Government's Prospects Improve
//The chances that British Prime Minister
Ca ag an s government will survive today's confidence vote
improved yesterday as several minor parties indicated a will-
ingness to reach some accommodation with the government.//
//Callaghan emerged from a meeting with Liberal
Party leader Steel in a buoyant mood, indicating that a deal
may have been struck. Callaghan refused, however, to reveal any
details of their talks.//
//The Liberals, recognizing that their ability to
influence the government would be greater now than after an
early election, are seeking an accommodation with Labor to last
from 12 to 18 months.//
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//The Liberals reportedly are prepared to support
a aghan if he promises to consult with them on all planned
legislation and states publicly that the government will intro-
duce no new "socialist" legislation in this or the next session
of Parliament. They are also calling for tax reform and a tougher
line on government wage and price policies.//
//Callaghan would prefer to work out a more informal
understanding with the Liberals, since a public pledge to forego
further "socialist" measures would alienate key Labor Party and
trade union members.//
//Although Labor Party leaders may feel confident
e government will survive the confidence vote, victory is not
assured, given the poor record of the party leadership in the
House of Commons in managing recent votes. Labor's failure to
anticipate a major defeat on a motion to limit debate on the bill
giving home rule to Scotland and Wales exposed the party's weak
position in Parliament, setti g the stage for the current chal- 25X1
lenge
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Three men apparently are in the race to be India's
next prime minister.
The Janata Party, to which Morarji Desai and Charan
Singh, two of the candidates, belong,.and the much smaller party
of Jagjivan Ram, the other candidate, have decided to act as
a single party in parliament. On Thursday, the members of par-
liament of both parties will meet to elect their parliamentary
leader, who will become the prime minister.
Desai is better known than Charan Singh and presum-
ably has greater support among Janata members. Charan Singh's
support is centered in his home state, Uttar Pradesh, but about
a quarter of the Janata members of parliament come from that
state. Although Ram's party is small, he almost certainly has
some support in Janata.
I J.P. Narayan, the most respected of those who cam-
paign., against Prime Minister Gandhi, could have considerable
influence in the selection of a prime minister, but his poor
health precludes his taking an active part in the government.
Desai, 81, was deputy prime minister and a leader of
the more conservative faction of the Congress Party when he
broke with Prime Minister Gandhi in 1969. He has criticized the
1971 friendship treaty with the USSR and would favor a more
balanced foreign policy. He is a capable administrator, but his
opponents accuse him of being inflexible and puritanical.
Charan Singh, 75, was chief minister of Uttar Pradesh
after his break with Gandhi in 1967. He bases his claim to the
prime ministry on the strong showing Gandhi's opponents made in
his home state. His opponents say his almost total lack of ex-
perience at the national level would make him an ineffective
prime minister. The strongest supporter of free enterprise among
the three candidates, Singh has been accused of being inflexible
and opportunistic.
Jagjivan Ram, 68, sees himself as a compromise and
hopes to obtain the blessing of Narayan. Ram, the leader of
India's untouchables, was a member of the cabinet and one of
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the most important members of the Congress Party when he-broke
with Gandhi early in the election campaign. He is more sympathe-
tic to socialism than the other two candidates and is less con-
erned about the closeness of India's relations with the USSR.
LEBANON: Situation Report
The fallout from the assassination last week of Druz-e
and e tist leader Kamal Jumblatt is keeping tensions high in
Beirut and the Shuf region of Lebanon. The Syrian-controlled
Arab peacekeeping forces appear to have the situation under
control for the moment, but the Christians may undertake a cam-
paign of massive killings against the Druze in retaliation for
Druze killings of an estimated 150 Christians in the Shuf last
week.
I Christian leaders
nave rea ene to take action on their own if the Lebanese
government or the peacekeeping forces do not arrest by today
those responsible for the murders of Christians. Some arrests
have been made, but it is not clear if this will be sufficient
to head off a Christian reaction.
The US embassy in Beirut notes that Druze attacks on
Christian villages have strengthened the arguments for a sepa-
rate state for Lebanese Christians. In addition, Jumblatt's
death, although weakening the left, has removed from the Leba-
nese political scene a major opponent of separatism. His assas-
sination has also permitted deep-seated religious animosities
to come to the surface and has demonstrated the fragility of
the present Syrian-imposed truce.
FRANCE: Municipal Elections
I I Many of the left's gains in the second round of
France's nationwide municipal elections on Sunday were made in
areas previously considered to be conservative strongholds. The
governing coalition managed to keep control of Toulouse, Lyon,
Nice, and a number of other important cities, but it failed to
take a single large city held before the election by the left.
Losses by the forces led by President Giscard exceeded those of
the Gaullists.
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In the past, the governing coalition has been able
to use anti-Communist scare tactics to bring out conservative
votes in the second round of voting. Such support did not mate-
rialize on Sunday; in fact, some voters abstained in the
second round. It also apparently supported the left in the
second round. It also appears that voters who backed Jobertist
or ecology candidates in the first round either shifted to the
left or abstained
Socialist voters for the first time showed as much
discipline as their Communist allies and generally backed Com-
munist candidates in the second round in areas where the Com-
munists were leading. Of the 156 cities with populations of
more than 30,000 now held by the left, 82 are controlled by
the Socialists, 71 by the Communists, and 3 by leftists not af-
filiated with the United Left.
The governing coalition did win a comfortable majority
in the Paris council, taking 69 of the 109 seats. Gaullist leader
Jacques Chirac's strong showing in Paris reaffirms his power
base and prestige within the governing coalition. It is not at
all clear, however, that his success was due to his aggressive
anti-Communist campaigning, as he claims.
I I The Paris area has always been a stronghold of the
moderates, and population shifts have worked further against
the left; in addition, Chirac's lists were headed by well-known
personalities who probably helped his candidacy almost as much
as he helped theirs. It is questionable whether Chirac's hard-
hitting anti-communist tactics can be successfully transferred
to the rest of France in the campaign for the parliamentary
election that must be held by next March.
Giscard's Independent Republican candidates barely
held their own in Paris by retaining 12 seats of the 109 seats
on the municipal council. In addition to Minister of Industry
d'Ornano, several key Independent Republican figures lost their
seats, among them the secretary general of the Independent Re-
publican Party, Jacques Dominati, and the president of the
party's parliamentary assembly group. Centrist participation in
the Paris council was cut in half; this, coupled with centrist
losses elsewhere in France, will put pressure on Giscard to re-
duce the disproportionate centrist representation in the current
cabinet.
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In Paris, the centrists and Independent Republicans
nave so clearly identified themselves with President. Giscard
that they are at a disadvantage in dealing with the Gaullists,
who view their victory as confirmation of the ineffectiveness
of Giscard's tactics and policies.
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PERU: SA-3 Missiles
//Same 100 SA-3 missiles, along with associated
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IT he acqu:_sition o DIA
the missiles brings Peru closer to having an effects_ve ground-
based air defense force. In mid-March some 20 Soviet advisers
reportedly arrived to train the Peruvians and to maintain the
SA-3 equipment.//
//Peru signed an agreement with the USSR in 1975
for an air defense package, of which the SA-3 is the key ele-
ment. This missile, first introduced in the USSR in 1961, is
best suited for use against low-altitude aircraft, as are other
weapons in the Peruvian package--the ZSU-23-4 self-propelled
antiaircraft artillery gun and the shoulder-fired SA-7 missile.
Over 40 ZSU-23-4 guns have been delivered to date, but we can-
not yet confirm that the SA-7 is in Peru.//
//These new air defense weapons can adequately
counter the Chilean and Ecuadorean air forces, which pose only
a modest threat to Peru. Chile has a few US-supplied F-5 fight-
ers and some older B-26 bombers. Ecuador now has five Canberra
light bombers and is starting to receive British-made Jaguar
fighters; it is searching for another type of fighter aircraft
after its unsuccessful attempt to purchase Israeli Kfir jets.//
I //The 100 SA-3 missiles are sufficient to supply
several tiring units initially. Each unit is equipped with ra-
dars and consists of four launch positions with either two-rail
or four-rail launchers. The first units will probably be set up
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around Lima or near the airfield at Pisco, where Peru's new
SU-22 fighter-bombers reportedly will be stationed. At most,
about a dozen SA-3 sites will probably be established.//
//None of the SA-3 units is likely to be opera-
tional for at least another year, pending completion of the
Soviet-sponsored training program and the construction of sup-
port facilities. The Soviets are unlikely to man Peruvian SA-3
sites. in the interim.
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