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December 20, 2016
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September 25, 2006
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March 23, 1977
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1 1 1 TO: NAME AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 1 2 3 4 ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPAR E REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOM MENDATION COMMENT FILE RETUR N CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE -- - --- - ------I op Secret 217 (Security Classification) CONTROL NO. Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0 Wednesday March 23, 1977 CG NIDC 77-067C NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions 1 DIA review(s) completed. Top Secret 25X1 0 State Dept. review completed cc~~UU~LLtyy C ssification Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02 ~0v1o - 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 Approved For Rel 25X1 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday. March 25X1 is tor Efte purpose o informing senior US officials. CONTENTS INDIA: Coalition to Govern UK: Government's Prospects Improve Page 1 Page 2 INDIA: Political LEBANON: Situation Report FRANCE: Municipal Elections Page 5 Page 6 Page 6 Page 10 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A029p00010040-6 Approved For R4 INDIA: Coalition to Govern I I The Janata Party in India apparently will form a coa- lition government with the followers of former agriculture min- ister Ram, who broke early in the election campaign with former prime minister Gandhi who resigned today. I I Members of Parliament of Janata and Ram's party will meet in New Delhi on Thursday to choose a prime minister. The prospective Janata led coalition has so far won 286 of the 542 lower house seats. Gandhi's Congress Party has won 146 seats as the country of votes nears an end. The four ideologically diverse parties that joi d ne to form Janata may have difficulty formulating policies and even in picking a 'prime minister and cabinet. The Congress Party's defeat on the national level may result in the fall of numerous Congress-led state governments as state legislators scramble to get on the anti-Congress bandwagon. The selection of Janata candidates for state elections will be another prob- lem for Janata's disparate partners. The four parties that make up Janata are: --The Organization Congress, a moderate group that broke with Gandhi in 1969. Its leader, Morarji Desai, is the leading candidate for prime minister. --The Jana Sangh, a Hindu nationalist party that has mod- erated its radical policies in an effort to broaden its support. --The Indian Revolutionary Party, a coalition of a number of groups that broke with Congress largely because of dis- agreements in state politics. --The Socialists, the most radical of the four, who are prone to splitting over personalities and ideology. Foreign policy was a minor issue in the campaign and e new government is not likely to initiate any major shifts in India's foreign relations. There may, however, be some dif- ference in approach on several issues in which the US is inter- ested, including relations with Moscow, nuclear weapons and the Indian Ocean. Approved ForiRelease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00971A029900010040-6 Approved For Rellease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T009754029900010040-6 25X1 Although the Indians probably will continue to rely , on Soviet economic and military aid, the new government will be more cautious in dealing with Moscow. Several leaders of Janata, including Desai, have been openly critical of the 1971 friendship treaty with the USSR. The USSR enjoyed close, cordial relations with Gan- overnment and will view her defeat as a setback of major dhi's g proportions. Moscow will try to maintain good relations with whatever government emerges, but the atmosphere in Soviet-Indian relations could chill noticeably. I I Several important Janata leaders have long advocated a nuclear weapons program for India. Although J. P. Narayan, the party's elder statesman, is opposed to all such weapons, the US may find India even less cooperative on nuclear issues. The new government might take an even stronger stand against foreign military activities in the Indian Ocean--includ- ing those of US at Diego Garcia--because of the nationalistic bent of several of its members. Because India has a huge population and is a leader among the developing nations, the problems Gandhi's government encountered with a vigorous birth control program may have in- ternational implications. Gandhi's sterilization program may have been the single most important cause of her de:-eat. UK: Government's Prospects Improve //The chances that British Prime Minister Ca ag an s government will survive today's confidence vote improved yesterday as several minor parties indicated a will- ingness to reach some accommodation with the government.// //Callaghan emerged from a meeting with Liberal Party leader Steel in a buoyant mood, indicating that a deal may have been struck. Callaghan refused, however, to reveal any details of their talks.// //The Liberals, recognizing that their ability to influence the government would be greater now than after an early election, are seeking an accommodation with Labor to last from 12 to 18 months.// Approved For Rel Approved For RO //The Liberals reportedly are prepared to support a aghan if he promises to consult with them on all planned legislation and states publicly that the government will intro- duce no new "socialist" legislation in this or the next session of Parliament. They are also calling for tax reform and a tougher line on government wage and price policies.// //Callaghan would prefer to work out a more informal understanding with the Liberals, since a public pledge to forego further "socialist" measures would alienate key Labor Party and trade union members.// //Although Labor Party leaders may feel confident e government will survive the confidence vote, victory is not assured, given the poor record of the party leadership in the House of Commons in managing recent votes. Labor's failure to anticipate a major defeat on a motion to limit debate on the bill giving home rule to Scotland and Wales exposed the party's weak position in Parliament, setti g the stage for the current chal- 25X1 lenge . 25X1 Approved For RIIease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AOR9900010040-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 Approved For Ro Three men apparently are in the race to be India's next prime minister. The Janata Party, to which Morarji Desai and Charan Singh, two of the candidates, belong,.and the much smaller party of Jagjivan Ram, the other candidate, have decided to act as a single party in parliament. On Thursday, the members of par- liament of both parties will meet to elect their parliamentary leader, who will become the prime minister. Desai is better known than Charan Singh and presum- ably has greater support among Janata members. Charan Singh's support is centered in his home state, Uttar Pradesh, but about a quarter of the Janata members of parliament come from that state. Although Ram's party is small, he almost certainly has some support in Janata. I J.P. Narayan, the most respected of those who cam- paign., against Prime Minister Gandhi, could have considerable influence in the selection of a prime minister, but his poor health precludes his taking an active part in the government. Desai, 81, was deputy prime minister and a leader of the more conservative faction of the Congress Party when he broke with Prime Minister Gandhi in 1969. He has criticized the 1971 friendship treaty with the USSR and would favor a more balanced foreign policy. He is a capable administrator, but his opponents accuse him of being inflexible and puritanical. Charan Singh, 75, was chief minister of Uttar Pradesh after his break with Gandhi in 1967. He bases his claim to the prime ministry on the strong showing Gandhi's opponents made in his home state. His opponents say his almost total lack of ex- perience at the national level would make him an ineffective prime minister. The strongest supporter of free enterprise among the three candidates, Singh has been accused of being inflexible and opportunistic. Jagjivan Ram, 68, sees himself as a compromise and hopes to obtain the blessing of Narayan. Ram, the leader of India's untouchables, was a member of the cabinet and one of Approved For R~ Iease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AP29900010040-6 Approved For the most important members of the Congress Party when he-broke with Gandhi early in the election campaign. He is more sympathe- tic to socialism than the other two candidates and is less con- erned about the closeness of India's relations with the USSR. LEBANON: Situation Report The fallout from the assassination last week of Druz-e and e tist leader Kamal Jumblatt is keeping tensions high in Beirut and the Shuf region of Lebanon. The Syrian-controlled Arab peacekeeping forces appear to have the situation under control for the moment, but the Christians may undertake a cam- paign of massive killings against the Druze in retaliation for Druze killings of an estimated 150 Christians in the Shuf last week. I Christian leaders nave rea ene to take action on their own if the Lebanese government or the peacekeeping forces do not arrest by today those responsible for the murders of Christians. Some arrests have been made, but it is not clear if this will be sufficient to head off a Christian reaction. The US embassy in Beirut notes that Druze attacks on Christian villages have strengthened the arguments for a sepa- rate state for Lebanese Christians. In addition, Jumblatt's death, although weakening the left, has removed from the Leba- nese political scene a major opponent of separatism. His assas- sination has also permitted deep-seated religious animosities to come to the surface and has demonstrated the fragility of the present Syrian-imposed truce. FRANCE: Municipal Elections I I Many of the left's gains in the second round of France's nationwide municipal elections on Sunday were made in areas previously considered to be conservative strongholds. The governing coalition managed to keep control of Toulouse, Lyon, Nice, and a number of other important cities, but it failed to take a single large city held before the election by the left. Losses by the forces led by President Giscard exceeded those of the Gaullists. Approved for Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0P9900010040-6 Approved For RO In the past, the governing coalition has been able to use anti-Communist scare tactics to bring out conservative votes in the second round of voting. Such support did not mate- rialize on Sunday; in fact, some voters abstained in the second round. It also apparently supported the left in the second round. It also appears that voters who backed Jobertist or ecology candidates in the first round either shifted to the left or abstained Socialist voters for the first time showed as much discipline as their Communist allies and generally backed Com- munist candidates in the second round in areas where the Com- munists were leading. Of the 156 cities with populations of more than 30,000 now held by the left, 82 are controlled by the Socialists, 71 by the Communists, and 3 by leftists not af- filiated with the United Left. The governing coalition did win a comfortable majority in the Paris council, taking 69 of the 109 seats. Gaullist leader Jacques Chirac's strong showing in Paris reaffirms his power base and prestige within the governing coalition. It is not at all clear, however, that his success was due to his aggressive anti-Communist campaigning, as he claims. I I The Paris area has always been a stronghold of the moderates, and population shifts have worked further against the left; in addition, Chirac's lists were headed by well-known personalities who probably helped his candidacy almost as much as he helped theirs. It is questionable whether Chirac's hard- hitting anti-communist tactics can be successfully transferred to the rest of France in the campaign for the parliamentary election that must be held by next March. Giscard's Independent Republican candidates barely held their own in Paris by retaining 12 seats of the 109 seats on the municipal council. In addition to Minister of Industry d'Ornano, several key Independent Republican figures lost their seats, among them the secretary general of the Independent Re- publican Party, Jacques Dominati, and the president of the party's parliamentary assembly group. Centrist participation in the Paris council was cut in half; this, coupled with centrist losses elsewhere in France, will put pressure on Giscard to re- duce the disproportionate centrist representation in the current cabinet. Approved For Rellease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A049900010040-6 Approved For Reloase 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975Ap29900010040-6 25X1 In Paris, the centrists and Independent Republicans nave so clearly identified themselves with President. Giscard that they are at a disadvantage in dealing with the Gaullists, who view their victory as confirmation of the ineffectiveness of Giscard's tactics and policies. 25X1 '5X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A049900010040-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 Approved For Relea PERU: SA-3 Missiles //Same 100 SA-3 missiles, along with associated - -' 4ui i 1.7 iLIVJl l.,ll 5X IT he acqu:_sition o DIA the missiles brings Peru closer to having an effects_ve ground- based air defense force. In mid-March some 20 Soviet advisers reportedly arrived to train the Peruvians and to maintain the SA-3 equipment.// //Peru signed an agreement with the USSR in 1975 for an air defense package, of which the SA-3 is the key ele- ment. This missile, first introduced in the USSR in 1961, is best suited for use against low-altitude aircraft, as are other weapons in the Peruvian package--the ZSU-23-4 self-propelled antiaircraft artillery gun and the shoulder-fired SA-7 missile. Over 40 ZSU-23-4 guns have been delivered to date, but we can- not yet confirm that the SA-7 is in Peru.// //These new air defense weapons can adequately counter the Chilean and Ecuadorean air forces, which pose only a modest threat to Peru. Chile has a few US-supplied F-5 fight- ers and some older B-26 bombers. Ecuador now has five Canberra light bombers and is starting to receive British-made Jaguar fighters; it is searching for another type of fighter aircraft after its unsuccessful attempt to purchase Israeli Kfir jets.// I //The 100 SA-3 missiles are sufficient to supply several tiring units initially. Each unit is equipped with ra- dars and consists of four launch positions with either two-rail or four-rail launchers. The first units will probably be set up Approved For Re ease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975 029900010040-6 25X1 , Approved For around Lima or near the airfield at Pisco, where Peru's new SU-22 fighter-bombers reportedly will be stationed. At most, about a dozen SA-3 sites will probably be established.// //None of the SA-3 units is likely to be opera- tional for at least another year, pending completion of the Soviet-sponsored training program and the construction of sup- port facilities. The Soviets are unlikely to man Peruvian SA-3 sites. in the interim. Approved For RoIease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975]4029900010040-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 PF AW AIF AW AIF AIF AIV AIF AMIF AW Air, 1 0 Top a ret d For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6 (Security Classification) 0 0 z 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Top Secret 0 (Security l%rs41ii it r Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29900010040-6