NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029900010046-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 22, 2006
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: March 26, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the'following specific activities:
Saturday March 26,.1977 CG NIDC 77-070C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday. March 25X1
25X1 e N-LD Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
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EAST GERMANY - HUNGARY: Friendship Treaty
BELGIUM-LIBYA: Arms Complex
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The quick formation of a new cabinet in India indi-
cates that the leaders of the parties that defeated Indira
Gandhi have overcome the dispute resulting from the selection
of Morarji Desai as Prime Minister.
I I Differences among the groups that support Desai could
lea to serious problems in time. His Janata Party--which holds
about half the seats in the lower house of Parliament--is a
coalition of four parties, ranging from Hindu nationalists to
Marxist Socialists. Desai's working majority of about 30 seats
depends on close cooperation with the followers of Jagj:~.van
Ram, most of whom are defectors from the left wing of the Con-
gress Party. A regionalist Sikh Party and the Marxist Communists,
who are independent of both Moscow and Peking, also support
Desai.
In selecting the cabinet, the main consideration ap-
pears to have been the distribution of ministries in rough
proportion to the strength of the four parties that make up
Janata and Ram's party. The Sikh Party received one ministry,
but the Communists--who are more distant allies--were not in-
cluded.
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I I The selection of the cabinet was delayed by a dispute
over the manner in which Desai--who would probably have won in
any case--became prime minister. Original plans called for mem-
bers of Janata and Ram's party to elect the prime minister and
to act as a single party in Parliament. At the last minute, how-
ever, two respected and influential elder statesmen intervened
and, in effect, appointed Desai prime minister.
I Socialist leader Fernandes publicly criticized the
selection process, and Ram--himself a candidate for prime minis-
ter--refused to join the cabinet or to merge his party with
Janata. He relented after a major effort to soothe his feelings
and a reported offer of the deputy prime ministership and was
included in the list of ministers announced yesterday.
I I A more serious test of unity could occur in West Ben-
gal, where the Marxist Communists won the most seats in the
parliamentary election. They are trying to engineer the fall of
the Congress Party state government. As Prime Minister, Desai
might be reluctant to agree. Two previous Communist governments
in West Bengal brought the state to the verge of collapse.
A further complication is the defection of many Con-
gress Party members in the state to Ram's party. An election
for the state assembly could become a contest between two of
Desai's allies.
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EAST GERMANY - HUNGARY: Friendship Treaty
25X1 Hungarian party leader Janos Kadar signed a revamped
friendship treaty with his East German counterpart this week
to replace a pact negotiated in 1967.
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The East Germans seem anxious to update their bilateral
friendship treaties with the. Warsaw Pact states before the fol-
low-up conference on security and cooperation in Europe this
fall. Polish leader Gierek will reportedly sign an updated pact
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during his visit to East Berlin in May, and the East Germans
may also renegotiate treaties with Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria,
and possibly Romania.
The new East German - Hungarian treaty is similar in
most respects to the East German - Soviet pact of October 1975,
which--among other things--highlights East Germany's emergence
as an independent and sovereign state on the world scene.
I I The East German leaders probably believe that such
statements underline the legitimacy of East Germany and will
thus be useful should they decide to adopt a tougher stance on
certain long-standing disputes with West Germany. Party chief
Honecker hinted in a speech on March 18 that there could be no
progress in East-West German relations until more basic ques-
tions are resolved--such as West German acknowledgment of a
separate East German citizenship and agreement on a final de-
marcation of the border.
BELGIUM-LIBYA: Arms Complex
A Belgian official has told the US embassy in Brussels
that the proposed multibillion dollar agreement for Belgian
firms to build an arms complex, in Libya is dead. The Libyans
apparently found the Belgian terms unacceptable but told the
Belgians that they do not plan to ask any other country to build
the complex.
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