CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010014-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: April 8, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

AAIW AAEV AAEV AANW, AAEV AAW Amir AAW AW 'APP
Annrrvcrl Prr 4?clcacc 9nnR/n7/1d ? rID-PnID7QTnnQ7r0Anq nnnni(V l4 7
ROUTING
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE I
NITIALS
1
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPAR
E REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOM
MENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
I up .7Cl;IeL 4J- d
(Security Classification)
1
1
1
1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday April 8, 1977 CG NIDC 77-081C
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
AIMMMA
Top Secret
(Security Classification
IMF
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
AV
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010014-2
National Intel Cable for Friday, April 8, 1977.
The NID Cable is for the purpose or in
senior US o icials.
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Rabin's Resignation
ZAIRE: Situation Report
LEBANON: Situation Report
LIBYA: Execution of Officers
SOUTH AFRICA - ISRAEL: Boats
EAST GERMANY: Air Traffic Regulations
ITALY: Political Maneuvering
CHINA: Party Congress
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
Page
Page 7
Page 8
Page 9
Page 11
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2 25X1
ISRAEL: Rabin's Resignation
Israeli Prime Minister Rabin's resignation, following
press disclosures that he had maintained illegal bank accounts
in the US, seems certain to hurt the ruling Labor Alignment's
prospects at the polls next month. Because of its reformist
image, the new moderate Democratic Movement for Change Led by
YigaZ Yadin seems Likely to gain the most from Labor's Latest
misfortune.
Ironically, the Alignment, which has been rocked by
corruption scandals and torn by dissension for months, was
just beginning to rebound from its earlier poor standing in
public opinion polls. The most recent surveys showed the Labor
Party and its left-wing ally, Mapam, moving ahead of both the
hard-line Likud opposition bloc and Yadin's new group.
At this point, it is unclear who will succeed Rabin
as head of the present caretaker government or whether in fact
he can legally step down. Israeli law in this situation is not
clear, but Minister of Justice Zadok and other key Labor cabi-
net members and party leaders may decide the matter.
More important is the question of who will replace
Rabin as head of the Labor Party list for the election. Under
Israeli law, the party apparently must decide by next Tuesday
at the latest.
The top spot would seem to fall by default to De-
fense Minister Peres, who Rabin defeated by a very narrow
margin in the election held at the Labor Party convention in
late February. Although the party may fall into line quickly
behind Peres to avoid disruptive wrangling that would further
damage Labor's prospects, there is a possibility that some of
Peres long-standing enemies could make some effort to promote
a compromise candidate. Such a move, especially if successful,
would almost certainly seriously split Labor.
If Peres does succeed Rabin, on the other hand,
Mapam mig t decide to reverse its decision to pursue its elec-
toral alliance with Labor. Mapam had threatened earlier to
run its own list if Peres were chosen over Rabin at the Labor
Party convention. Party leaders have called an urgent meeting
for tomorrow to consider what actions Mapam must now take.
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
ZAIRE: Situation Report
According to press reports, a Moroccan infantr
y taLton ton is scheduled to arrive in Kinshasa toda
t
h
l
y
o
e
p Presi-
dent Mobutu ddeaZ with the invasion by Katangans, and the Chi-
nese have decided to provide materiel assistance to Zaire. In
Shaba, the military situation has changed very little in the
past several days.
The Katangans apparently remain in the area of K
-
ay
b em e; Zairian military units nearby report scattered fighting.
The invaders probably are still preparing for an attack o Kol-
The Zairian command in Shaba has organized the de-
ense o Kolwezi around nearly 1,200 troops augmented by ar-
mored cars and a few combat aircraft. Most Zairian troops are
near Kolwezi, but some have been positioned at outlying points
along roads leading into the town and at major junctions to the
east. General Singha, who was appointed commander of the troops
in Kolwezi last week, has moved the forward command post out
of Kolwezi to the west.
Although he has not been significantly tested in com-
ba General Singha appears to be performing more effectively
than his predecessor. According to the US embassy in Kinshasa,
Singha apparently has now established communications links with
his outlying commands which may solve one of the problems that
have hampered Zairian commanders over the past month. He also
reportedly is visiting his troops daily and is having stragglers
and deserters rounded up and interned outside Kolwezi. :Both
measures are likely to improve morale.
The situation in Kolwezi itself is tense
according
,
to the US consul in Lubumbashi, who visited the town early this
week. The French ordered their citizens to evacuate and then
reversed themselves, probably because their departure would
have triggered a mass evacuation. Mining operations are be-
coming increasingly difficult because the Zairian army has
commandeered many of the mining company's trucks and is using
the company's fuel supplies.
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010014-2
Most of the non-Zairian employees seem prepared to
remain, although arrangements are being made to evacuate de-
pendents if necessary. Mining company officials are skeptical
that they can continue production after Kolwezi falls, which
they view as probable.
The French are gradually increasing their role in the
con ict; advisers dispatched to Zaire last weekend are to ar-
rive in Shaba today and will be attached to General Singha's
staff. Some French advisers are to begin training Zairian per-
sonnel in the use of armored cars and mortars in the next few
days.
China is backing up its support of the Mobutu govern-
ment wit materiel assistance. Yesterday Kinshasa announced
that 30 tons of Chinese equipment--probably arms, ammunition,
other military goods and medical supplies--would soon arrive
by air. More equipment is to arrive on a ship already sailing
for Zaire.
Peking continues to accuse the USSR of engineering
the invasion of Shaba with Cuban help. Chinese criticism reached
a high point on Wednesday, when Vice Premier Li Hsien-nien at
a banquet for the visiting President of Mauritania accused Mos- 25X1
cow of initiating a new round of political and military aggres-
sion in Africa. Soviet and East European diplomats walked out
of the affair.
LEBANON: Situation Report
Fighting yesterday in southern Lebanon was
reported to be zn ense, as PaZestian and Zeftist forces con-
tinued their counterattack against the Christians. The Pales-
tinians captured the town of Khiyam, which had fallen to the
Christians in December, and continued to press the Christians
in Marj U un.
Christian setbacks promted leaders of the Christian
Front yesterday to issue a collective appeal for leaders of the
Arab countries to intervene in the fighting. The statement
hinted that if the Arab states failed to act, the Christians
would seek other aid, possibly from Israel, to avert further
losses.
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
/Some 20 Libyan military officers convicted
bi- par 2 p2ca tng in a coup attempt against President Qadhafi
in 1975 reportedly were executed on April 2. The government
has not confirmed the executions, but rumors about them have
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
generated a great deal of anger and apprehension--particularly
among Q 's detractors in the military and in the middle
class.
//Emotion over reports of the executions is
running -especially high among certain elements in Benghazi, the
center of the 7 naica ion where opposition to the regime
is strongest.
Tripoli radio announced yesterday that five civilians,
at least one of whom was Egyptian, were publicly executed in
Benghazi yesterday following their conviction and sentencing by
the "Peoples Court" for sabotage and burning a church. These
executions may have been intended to defuse tension in the area.
Egyptians are almost as unpopular in Cyrenaica as Qadhafi's re-
gime; moreover, the "Peoples Court" is made up of popularly
elected, local citizens who presumably have significant sway
over public opinion.
/Qadhafi has had a reputation for leniency to-
ward his opponents; until now, there have been no executions
and very little officially sanctioned violence under his rule.
There has been growing concern, however, that Qadhafi's latest
steps to legitimize his one-man rule and reduce the power of
his colleagues on the recently abolished Revolutionary Command
Council would lead to greater repression.//
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
//The officers were part of a conspiracy led by
Umar Mu aysh , one of Qadhafi's oldest friends. Muhayshi escaped
after the abortive coup first to Tunisia and then to Egypt and
has been collaborating with the Egyptians in a propaganda cam-
paign against Qadhafi ever since. Qadhafi has been badly stung
by many of Muhayshi's allegations and frustrated by his inabil-
ity to silence him. In addition, the executions may serve as a
warning to Muhayshi, who recently resumed radio broadcasts de-
nouncing Qadhafi, that his relatives and followers in Libya
could be in jeopardy if such broadcasts continue.//
//It is too early to judge whether Qadhafi's re-
ported resort to violence will better serve him or his oppo-
nents. Having narrowly escaped several assassination attempts
over the past year, the Libyan leader probably believes the
need to intimidate his opponents at home and in Egypt outweighs
the adverse popular reaction to unaccustomed violence. Most
Libyan military officers, already badly shaken by Qadhafi's
moves, are likely to be more concerned--at least initially--
about their own survival than about taking action against the
regime.//
I//Qadhafi may be in no immediate danger, but his
image as a relatively benign leader dedicated to Libya's in-
terests before his own is rapidly dissipating. His turn toward
the USSR, his disregard for local religious leaders, and his
resort to tribal politics have offended.even some of his
staunchest supporters and may have begun to undermine his pop-
ularity among Libya's largely rural population.//
25X1
25X1
//South Africa will take delivery next month of 25X1
the srs o six Israeli-built Reshef-class patrol boats it
has ordered
The Israelis reportedly are training 100 South Afri-
ans--enough for two crews--ta operate the 250-ton patrol
boats, which are designed to carry naval guns and up to eight
Gabriel surface-to-surface missiles.//
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
//At least one crew is said to have been conduct-
ing at-sea training on the first Reshef, which apparently will
be escorted from Gibraltar to the Cape by a South African na-
val replenishment ship. The voyage should take about three
weeks.//
//A second Israeli-built Reshef reportedly is due
to be launched this summer. South Africa is building at least
three of the six under license in Durban, but they probably
will not be ready for launching until next year.//
//The six boats are part of South Africa's effort
to modernize and improve its badly outdated navy. The program
includes two destroyer escorts and two submarines still on or-
der from France. As these new ships are made operational, many
of the country's older, British-built ships will be phased out.
EAST GERMANY: Air Traffic Regulations
A new East German regulation governing aircraft fly-
ing over the country's territory could be designed to apply to
Allied military flights to West Berlin, but the East Germans
appear unlikely to attempt to enforce the regulation at this
time.
The East German Foreign Ministry recently sent the
text of the new regulation, which became effective in February,
to a number of Western embassies in East Berlin. The covering
note asked the embassies to inform their governments of provi-
sions regulating official and civilian aircraft with "militar-
ily important freight" flying over the "sovereign territory"
of East Germany.
Users of East German airspace must now request 10
working days in advance a permit to fly over the country, ex-
cept when the flight is authorized by "an international treaty."
This vague reference, however, may be intended to avoid raising
the issue of Allied use of the three air corridors to West Ber-
lin. Alternatively, this wording may refer to agreements be-
tween East Germany and its allies.
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
The new regulation also bans photography, surveying,
and other forms of aerial measurement in East German airspace.
reflect East German as well as Soviet sen-
ion ma
i
y
s
This prov
sitivity to Allied reconnaissance flights in the air corridors,
although neither side has protested this activity.
E We do not know why the East Germans decided to call
attention to the regulation six weeks after its publication;
they have not interfered with Allied air traffic since the
regulation became effective. The Soviets probably do not wish
to heat up the Berlin issue now; the Soviet ambassador in East
Berlin recently told his French counterpart that the USSR
would like to discontinue public polemics over Berlin.
East Germans presumably believe the regulation
Th
e
bolsters heir contention that Allied rights in Berlin should
be temporary and negotiable. The new law complements other
East German attempts since the beginning of the year to deem-
t
f
e
os
phasize the special status of East Berlin and to
rman state
t G
.
e
image of a sovereign, independent Eas
ITALY: Political Maneuvering
Communist Party leader Berlinguer has appar-
li
an
Ita
it is time to raise the price for further
ctded that
ent y e cooperation with Prime Minister Andreotti's Christian Democratic
minority government. Intense political maneuvering is likely
after Easter, and Andreotti will probably have to grant the
Communists a more formal consultative role in poZicymaking in
order to keep his government afloat.
the Communists have provided the crucial
ust
A
i
ug
nce
S
, margin tor Andreotti's survival by abstaining in key parlia-
mentary votes. Berlinguer has periodically probed for signs of
Christian Democratic willingness to move toward closer colla-
boration through more formal and overt consultations with the
Communists. The Christian Democrats have repeatedly rebuffed
Berlinguer, but they have cushioned the blow with public ex-
pressions of appreciation for the Communists' "responsible"
attitude toward the government. Berlinguer has always stopped
short of forcing the issue.
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
Now the Communist leader is taking a more insistent
tone. His tougher line doubtless results from a concern that
cooperation with Andreotti is beginning to damage the party's
reputation with the key components of its constituency--the
working class and young voters.
Writing in the party daily last weekend, Berlinguer
asserted-that the Andreotti formula had served a positive func-
tion but is now "worn out." While reiterating the party's desire
to avoid bringing down the government, he argued that a compre-
hensive accord among the parties that keep Andreotti in office
is necessary to solve the country's problems.
That theme had been spelled out in greater detail by
the Communist directorate in a communique issued last week. The
leadership called for an agreement on a wide range of topics,
including foreign and economic policies, the maintenance of
public order, and university reform. Through such an accord,
the Communists hope to be able to move from abstention in par-
liament to participation in a majority supporting the govern-
ment.
Such a step would be widely viewed as taking the Com-
munists closer toward cabinet status. For just that reason, the
Christian Democrats--whose election campaign last summer centered
on a pledge to keep the Communists out of government--continue
to resist the idea of including the Communists in a parliamen-
tary majority.
Given the pressures in each party against closer col-
laboration, any compromise will have to be sufficiently ambig-
uous to permit the Christian Democrats and Communists to inter-
pret it publicly according to their respective political needs.
The Christian Democrats must be able to claim that the Com-
munists have not gotten a toe hold in the national government;
the Communists must be able to argue that the party's continued
cooperation with the government is, at the minimum, producing
tangible rewards for Communist supporters.
Despite the obvious difficulties, such a compromise
does seem within reach. The Christian Democrats--even as they
reiterate their refusal to include the Communists in a parlia-
mentary majority--are showing a greater willingness to broaden
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
the area of formal agreement between themselves and Berlinguer's
party. Christian Democratic Party president Moro, for example,
has with characteristic vagueness floated the notion of "pro-
grammatic convergences" among the various parties.
the most recent gathering of the Christian
Moreover
,
? Democratic leadership--alert to the pressures building up on
Andreotti and reluctant to see him fall--revealed broad sup-
port for some kind of limited but formal program agreement in-
volving the Communists and other major parties.
Th Communists moreover, are probably prepared to
llcly. Accor ing
party would be satisfied with a formal agreement encompassing
six or seven areas of legislation. The Communists would also
want some guarantee that the legislation would be implemented,
perhaps through a cabinet shuffle bringing in some technocrats
in whom the left has confidence. Andreotti has publicly de-
clared his openness to such a change.
settle for something'less than what they have demanded pub-
s to a senior Communist economic official, the
a compromise seems to be shaping up that would
s
Th
,
u
fall short of what the Communists want but which would never-
theless give them a more formal role in shaping some govern-
ment policies.
CHINA: Party Congress
The Chinese are planning to convene a national
party/ congress.
The meeting will
name a new Central Committee and PoZztburo, ratify Hua Kuo-feng
as party chairman, and formalize the purge of the four left-
ists.
ill take at least until June to select dele-
t
w
I
gates from, across the country. //The party is now examining
the credentials of many party members suspected of gaining
"illegal" entry into the party through the efforts of the four
disgraced leftists.// The decision to move ahead with a party
congress was apparently made at last month's major leadership
meeting in Peking.
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
If no announcement is made before the congress on
the status of Teng Hsiao-ping, that issue will probably be
formally resolved at the meeting.
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
 0
i 0
. 0
0
0
1
Approved For Release 2008/02/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30000010014-2
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
0
10
0 0
0 Top Secret 0
(Security Classification)
Approved For Release 2008/02/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A03 0000010014-2