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December 16, 2016
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June 16, 2005
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June 10, 1977
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00975A030200010018-6.pdf296.38 KB
pr AV AV Air Air AV Air AV AV AV AAF 1 r 3965f66f3 TO: NAME AND ADDRESS NAME AND ADDRESS DATE DATE INITIALS INITIALS 2 3 4 ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPA RE REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION COMMENT FILE RETURN CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE (Security Classification) CONTROL NO. J 25X1 25X11 1 0 0 Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: Friday June 10, 1977 CG NIDC 77-134C w NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions 0 0 Top Secret 25X1 S Approved For Release 2005/06/30: CIA-RDP79TO0975AOjDe1W(Ti - 0 AW AW AW AW AW AW AW AW AW A0 CIA-RDP79T00975A03020 100 -6 opecret 217 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010018-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010018-6 Approved For 25X1 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, June 10, 1977 25X1 The NII) Cable is for the purpose of informing senior US officials. 25X1 25X1 INDIA: State Election Prospects RHODESIA: Sithole May Return CHINA: Party Control Over Military SEYCHELLES: Rene Maintains Control Page 2 Page 3 Page 5 Page 6 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T00 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010018-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010018-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79Tog975A030200010018-6 INDIA: State Election Prospects Elections are scheduled to be held in 10 of India's 22 states and 3 union territories between today and Tuesday. The Janata Party of Prime Minister Morarji Desai hopes to con- soZidate its earlier national victory. The defeated Congress Party hopes to recoup locally some of the ground it lost in March's election debacle. Janata is expected to receive a plu- rality in most states, and form governments either alone or as a leading partner in coalitions with independents and, perhaps, leftist parties. I INine of the ten states holding elections are in north- ern In ia. Janata did very well in this region in the national election, but it is likely to emerge with far smaller margins of victory in the state contests. The other election is in Tamil Nadu, which is in the extreme south, where a regional party appears to have more support than either Janata or Con- gress. Approved Igor Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T00P75AO30200010018-6 Approved For 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 I IJanata remains a loose alliance of parties whose leaders have long been out of power and who will do their ut- most to prevent internal disputes from destroying their party. The candidate selection process, however, has left bitter feel- ings among rejected would-be candidates. Many of these plan to run as independents, and their candidacies are likely to di- minish Janata's chances of receiving majorities. Some constitu- ents of the Janata alliance, moreover, resent some candidacies being given to Congress Party members who defected to Janata. IThe success or failure of the appeal made by Janata elder statesman J. P. Narayan for rejected office-seekers to give up their independent candidacies will probably influence the extent of a Janata victory. The Congress Party appears to be benefiting from Janata disarray, but Congress still must overcome its associa- tion with the harshness of emergency rule and the continuing influence of former prime minister Gandhi in party decisions. cept in the Punjab where the pro-Soviet Communist Party of India has formed an electoral arrangement with Janata, and in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, where it has linked with Congress. In West Bengal, the more left-leaning Communist Party - Marxist reportedly has a good chance of winning. The Communist parties tend to be going it alone ex- If the Janata Party does reasonably well in the state elections, the government in New Delhi is likely to focus on internal matters for the next few months. At present it is busy consolidating its internal political structure and coping with the issues of inflation, increased student dissidence, and ris- RHODESIA: Sithole May Return /Nationalist leader Ndabaningi SithoZe may 25X1 25X1 return to Rhodesia later this month to try to strengthen his 25X1 Approved For elease 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T0097 Approved Fq 25X1 //Sithole has been in exile since early 1975, and previously served 10 years in jail. //Sithole's supporters inside Rhodesia had planned a mass rally last Sunday to whip up enthusiasm for his return. Justice Minister Squires prevented the gathering, ac- cording to South African press reports, and stated that such meetings could not be allowed until Sithole "denounced terror- ism." The government may be trying to get further commitments from Sithole, but the nationalist leader informed the press on Monday of his intention to go to Rhodesia.// //Sithole is now in London seeking interna- tional support at the Commonwealth Conference 25X1 25X1 Approved Folr Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T009175A030200010018-6 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved F CHINA: Party Control Over Military I IA recent editorial in China's army news- paper, the Liberation Army Daily, reaffirms the principle of Communist Party control over the military and argues that fur- ther political work in the army is required in order to accel- erate military modernization. The editorial also states that "army building"--modernization---"must take place at the same time" as economic growth. It avoids, however, discussing spe- cific army budgetary decisions, a topic that probably remains contentious. The centerpiece of the editorial--two handwritten "inscriptions" by party chairman Hua Kuo-feng and Defense Min- ister Yeh Chien-ying--deals with political aspects of military development. It puts the army on notice that modernization is possible only if the army demonstrates the proper political at- titudes and performance and strictly obeys the party leadership. I Hua's inscription calls for accelerating "revolution- ization and modernization" in the army. Hua appears to define revolutionization as doing proper ideological work, obeying party instructions, and "purifying" army leadership groups. The editorial clearly sets out the priorities for army work: "Our principle is putting revolutionization in charge of mod- ernization." This implies that some leaders in Peking have been dissatisfied with the army's performance in "revolutionization." I Both Hua and Yeh exhort the army to learn from the Har -Bone Sixth" Company, a unit widely praised not only for its excellent combat training, loyalty, and toughness, but es- pecially for its political work, which includes efforts to keep its ranks politically pure. The emulation campaign, which began earlier this year and seemed aimed at weeding out followers of the discredited leftist :Leaders, had been carried out in a rather low-key fashion. This suggests that there may have been disagreement over its implementation. The approach reflected in the editorial seems to serve two purposes. It clearly reaffirms the principle that the army is subordinate to the party leadership, a principle that may have come under question after the purge of the four leftists because of the important role the army played in that 25X1 Approved F r Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T009 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 I 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved Foti event. It also provides a sound political justification for resisting any residual argument that military modernization should receive top priority--an argument that Peking, in any event, has been forced to reject for purely economic reasons. IT he editorial and the campaign appear to rep- resent Peking's effort to put party-army relations on a term, correct footing and to point out the proper direction for military develo ment SEYCHELLES: Rene Maintains Control ment has relaxed its curfew, Rene and his ministers have made several public appearances, and the police--currently the only security force on the islands--seem to be supporting the govern- ment. Rene is still voicing some concern about vulnerability to a mercenary attack by deposed president Mancham. The new Seychelles government of President Rene now appears confident of its ability to maintain control. The govern- dence that a move against him is being planned. Last night Rene announced that he intends to recruit a "people's security army" starting today, but we have no evi- Rene continues to indicate that, despite his leftist credentials, he plans to follow a moderate course. In a press conference on Wednesday, he reiterated his desire to remain nonaligned and to honor all foreign agreements. He plans to al- low the US tracking station to continue operations. 25X1 I I Rene said his government would move slightly to the lett u only because the Mancham government was so conservative. 25X1 Rene seemed to tie this leftist shift to an effort to redress domestic problems such as inadequate housing. This could be an effort to placate radical colleagues who brought him to power and who may still not be under his control. 25X1 Approved Fo Release 2005/06/30: CIA-RDP79TO09 Air Air Air AV AV Air AV AV AV 'Air-, Top 'ecret or Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010018-6 (Security Classification) 1 1 1 1 Top Secret (Security el@ itgg0 r Release 2005/06/30 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010018-6 '10 J