NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030200010018-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2005
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: June 10, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Friday June 10, 1977 CG NIDC 77-134C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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25X1 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, June 10, 1977
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The NII) Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
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INDIA: State Election Prospects
RHODESIA: Sithole May Return
CHINA: Party Control Over Military
SEYCHELLES: Rene Maintains Control
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INDIA: State Election Prospects
Elections are scheduled to be held in 10 of India's
22 states and 3 union territories between today and Tuesday.
The Janata Party of Prime Minister Morarji Desai hopes to con-
soZidate its earlier national victory. The defeated Congress
Party hopes to recoup locally some of the ground it lost in
March's election debacle. Janata is expected to receive a plu-
rality in most states, and form governments either alone or as
a leading partner in coalitions with independents and, perhaps,
leftist parties.
I INine of the ten states holding elections are in north-
ern In ia. Janata did very well in this region in the national
election, but it is likely to emerge with far smaller margins
of victory in the state contests. The other election is in
Tamil Nadu, which is in the extreme south, where a regional
party appears to have more support than either Janata or Con-
gress.
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I IJanata remains a loose alliance of parties whose
leaders have long been out of power and who will do their ut-
most to prevent internal disputes from destroying their party.
The candidate selection process, however, has left bitter feel-
ings among rejected would-be candidates. Many of these plan to
run as independents, and their candidacies are likely to di-
minish Janata's chances of receiving majorities. Some constitu-
ents of the Janata alliance, moreover, resent some candidacies
being given to Congress Party members who defected to Janata.
IThe success or failure of the appeal made by Janata
elder statesman J. P. Narayan for rejected office-seekers to
give up their independent candidacies will probably influence
the extent of a Janata victory.
The Congress Party appears to be benefiting from
Janata disarray, but Congress still must overcome its associa-
tion with the harshness of emergency rule and the continuing
influence of former prime minister Gandhi in party decisions.
cept in the Punjab where the pro-Soviet Communist Party of
India has formed an electoral arrangement with Janata, and in
Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, where it has linked with
Congress. In West Bengal, the more left-leaning Communist
Party - Marxist reportedly has a good chance of winning.
The Communist parties tend to be going it alone ex-
If the Janata Party does reasonably well in the state
elections, the government in New Delhi is likely to focus on
internal matters for the next few months. At present it is busy
consolidating its internal political structure and coping with
the issues of inflation, increased student dissidence, and ris-
RHODESIA: Sithole May Return
/Nationalist leader Ndabaningi SithoZe may
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return to Rhodesia later this month to try to strengthen his
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//Sithole has been in exile since early
1975, and previously served 10 years in jail.
//Sithole's supporters inside Rhodesia had
planned a mass rally last Sunday to whip up enthusiasm for his
return. Justice Minister Squires prevented the gathering, ac-
cording to South African press reports, and stated that such
meetings could not be allowed until Sithole "denounced terror-
ism." The government may be trying to get further commitments
from Sithole, but the nationalist leader informed the press on
Monday of his intention to go to Rhodesia.//
//Sithole is now in London seeking interna-
tional support at the Commonwealth Conference
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CHINA: Party Control Over Military
I IA recent editorial in China's army news-
paper, the Liberation Army Daily, reaffirms the principle of
Communist Party control over the military and argues that fur-
ther political work in the army is required in order to accel-
erate military modernization. The editorial also states that
"army building"--modernization---"must take place at the same
time" as economic growth. It avoids, however, discussing spe-
cific army budgetary decisions, a topic that probably remains
contentious.
The centerpiece of the editorial--two handwritten
"inscriptions" by party chairman Hua Kuo-feng and Defense Min-
ister Yeh Chien-ying--deals with political aspects of military
development. It puts the army on notice that modernization is
possible only if the army demonstrates the proper political at-
titudes and performance and strictly obeys the party leadership.
I Hua's inscription calls for accelerating "revolution-
ization and modernization" in the army. Hua appears to define
revolutionization as doing proper ideological work, obeying
party instructions, and "purifying" army leadership groups.
The editorial clearly sets out the priorities for army work:
"Our principle is putting revolutionization in charge of mod-
ernization." This implies that some leaders in Peking have been
dissatisfied with the army's performance in "revolutionization."
I Both Hua and Yeh exhort the army to learn from the
Har -Bone Sixth" Company, a unit widely praised not only for
its excellent combat training, loyalty, and toughness, but es-
pecially for its political work, which includes efforts to keep
its ranks politically pure. The emulation campaign, which began
earlier this year and seemed aimed at weeding out followers of
the discredited leftist :Leaders, had been carried out in a
rather low-key fashion. This suggests that there may have been
disagreement over its implementation.
The approach reflected in the editorial seems to
serve two purposes. It clearly reaffirms the principle that
the army is subordinate to the party leadership, a principle
that may have come under question after the purge of the four
leftists because of the important role the army played in that
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event. It also provides a sound political justification for
resisting any residual argument that military modernization
should receive top priority--an argument that Peking, in any
event, has been forced to reject for purely economic reasons.
IT he editorial and the campaign appear to rep-
resent Peking's effort to put party-army relations on a term,
correct footing and to point out the proper direction for
military develo ment
SEYCHELLES: Rene Maintains Control
ment has relaxed its curfew, Rene and his ministers have made
several public appearances, and the police--currently the only
security force on the islands--seem to be supporting the govern-
ment. Rene is still voicing some concern about vulnerability to
a mercenary attack by deposed president Mancham.
The new Seychelles government of President Rene now
appears confident of its ability to maintain control. The govern-
dence that a move against him is being planned.
Last night Rene announced that he intends to recruit
a "people's security army" starting today, but we have no evi-
Rene continues to indicate that, despite his leftist
credentials, he plans to follow a moderate course. In a press
conference on Wednesday, he reiterated his desire to remain
nonaligned and to honor all foreign agreements. He plans to al-
low the US tracking station to continue operations.
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I I Rene said his government would move slightly to the
lett u only because the Mancham government was so conservative. 25X1
Rene seemed to tie this leftist shift to an effort to redress
domestic problems such as inadequate housing. This could be an
effort to placate radical colleagues who brought him to power
and who may still not be under his control.
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