CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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CIA-RDP79T00975A030300010026-6
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T
Document Page Count:
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Document Creation Date:
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date:
January 24, 2008
Sequence Number:
26
Case Number:
Publication Date:
August 25, 1977
Content Type:
REPORT
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Thursday August 25, 1977 CG NIDC 77-198C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, August 25, 1977.
e NiD a e is tor the purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
EGYPT-LIBYA: Prisoner Exchange
LEBANON: Druze-Christian Conflict
WEST GERMANY: Kayser Space Program
TURKEY: Devaluation Possible
Page 2
Page 4
Page 5
Page 6
EL SALVADOR:
PHILIPPINES:
BRIEFS
Terrorist Activities
Martial Law Relaxed
Page 9
Page 10
Page 11
China-USSR
USSR
USSR
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EGYPT-LIBYA: Prisoner Exchange
//Egypt and Libya exchanged prisoners yester-
day and apparently plan to take additional steps to consolidate
the cease-fire established late last month. The exchange pre-
sumably indicates that President Qadhafi has accepted an agree-
ment worked out between Egyptian War Minister Gamasy and a Lib-
yan negotiator several days ago.//
//President Sadat first mentioned the secret
agreement, in a conversation with the US ambassador last weekend.
At that time, the Egyptians were awaiting Qadhafi's acceptance
of the proposal. Sadat told the ambassador only that the agree-
ment called for a mutual pull-back of troops. The Libyans are
to withdraw to Tobruk, with a small military unit remaining at
Musaid; the Egyptians are to withdraw to Sidi Barrani, except
for a small force that will remain at Sollum.//
Egyptian Foreign Minister Fahmi disclosed some of the
terms of the agreement in a briefing for African diplomats late
Tuesday. He did not mention the troop withdrawals, but stated
that the two countries had agreed to establish cease-fire obser-
vation posts along the border and to halt propaganda exchanges.
Fahmi apparently also alluded to the fact that the negotiations
had been carried out directly between Egyptian and Libyan repre-
sentatives. Palestinian chief Yasir Arafat, however, seems to
be taking credit at least for arranging the prisoner exchange.
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Egypt's decision to announce the agreement to a group
of foreign diplomats is an attempt to undercut sympathy for the
Libyans, who have with some success portrayed Egypt as the ag-
gressor in the recent fighting.
//The announcement also suggests that the Egyptians
are hoiding in abeyance plans to renew hostilities. A senior
Egyptian intelligence official told the US defense attache yes-
terday that Egyptian forces would be prepared to attack Libya
in two to three weeks if current efforts to reach a truce fail.
The Egyptian expressed deep skepticism that Qadhafi would carry
out the terms of the agreement, and said he expected a Libyan
attack by September 1. He also stated that for military reasons
Egypt does not intend to comply fully with the provisions for
troop withdrawals. At the same time he admitted that neither
the Egyptian public nor the military supports military action
against Libya.//
US officials in Cairo report that the Egyptian gov-
ernment seems especially concerned about low morale in the
military. Sadat and Gamasy have recently completed morale-
building tours of the Western Military District, and Sadat is
expected to visit military units in the Suez Canal area next
month.
The mood in Tripoli remains upbeat, despite the de-
terioration of public and private services caused by the mili-
tary mobilization. The Libyan media, while skirting direct at-
tacks on Egypt, continue to play up Libyan successes in the
last round of fighting and the support Libya has received from
the international community. The press is giving greatest at-
tention to the brisk pace of Qadhafi's activities in preparing
to counter Cairo on both the diplomatic and military fronts.
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Eastern Libya has also been hardest hit by the large-
sca.e e
x" us of Egyptian workers and technicians, who have been
leaving Libya voluntarily as a result of the fighting. At least
200 Egyptian families are now estimated to be crossing the bor-
der every day.
LEBANON: Druze-Christian Conflict
Although the situation in Lebanon's Shuf Re
ion
g
zs now ca m, the violence there on Sunday underscores th
h
i
e c
ron
c
confessional tension in Lebanon and the persistent mutual sus-
picion among parties to the conflict. The fighting has reinforced
the Christians' sense of living under threat of attack and will
aggravate their hard-line approach to the situation in the south
and to the general problem of constitutional reform. It may also
have increased the friction between the Christians and their erst-
while Syrian allies.
//Although accounts of Sunday's incident vary
it
,
appears to have been touched off when a number of armed Druze--
a religious and ethnic minority, loosely Muslim--who were members
of Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party, fired on Chris-
tians attending a requiem mass; 14 Christians and three Druze
were killed.//
//Tension quickly spread throughout the Shuf and
undoubtedly contributed to otherwise unrelated incidents in
neighboring villages. While Jumblatt condemned his followers
and tried to calm the situation, the Christians--instead of call-
ing for restraint--lashed out at the failure of the Arab security
forces to react more strongly and threatened to call out their
militias.//
//The Syrian-dominated security forces did manage
to keep the lid on the situation. On Tuesday they moved against
both Druze and Christian villages, arresting suspects and con-
fiscating weapons in house-to-house searches.//
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//Attempts to implement the third stage of the
Shtawrah agreement--involving Palestinian withdrawals in the
south--have meanwhile been postponed, perhaps indefinitely,
primarily because of a recent flare-up of artillery duels and
reports of an impending Israeli attack.//
moderate Palestin-
ian leaders have also reconsidered their decision to withdraw
in the south because of recent Christian aggressiveness and in-
creasingly hard-line statements.//
Christians in the south--supported by Israeli fire--
and the Palestinians there continue to engage in artillery duels.
US defense attache sources in the south believe that the rejec-
tionist Palestinians are now using heavier artillery and rock-
ets, which they presumably received through the port of Tyre.
WEST GERMANY: Kayser Space Program
//A private company founded by West German scien-
tist Lutz Kayser is attempting to develop the capability to
launch satellites now considered uneconomical by Western space
agencies. The corporation signed an agreement with Zaire for a
test range, and the first test firing took place in May. Exag-
gerated accounts in the European press were followed by Soviet
and East European charges that West Germany is conspiring with
Zaire and South Africa to develop a military missile program
directed at Angola, Zambia, and Tanzania.//
//Kayser was involved in the V-1 and V-2 programs
during or. War II. In 1974 he founded a private joint-stock
corporation, Orbital Transport- and Raketen- Aktiengesell-
schaft, to develop applications for his rocket. technology re-
search. The West German government has shown little interest,
but the corporation reportedly has already acquired enough
funds for its development program.//
//Earlier this year, the corporation contracted
with Zaire for a test range of some 100,000 square kilometers
in Shaba Province. Zaire was chosen not only because of its
vast unpopulated area, but also because West German legisla-
tion permits extensive tax write-offs for investment in under-
developed countries.//
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//A single-stage rocket was reportedl launch d
y
on May . The eight-meter-long rocket weighed two
and a half
tons and had four liquid propellant engines that produced 12
tons of thrust. It reached an altitude of 10 kilometers and
traveled 4 kilometers down range. Two more tests are scheduled
this year.//
//Kayser hopes to use clusters of these sin
le-
g
stage rockets to develop a space launch booster--a novel ap-
proach. The first tests of a two-stage rocket--composed of 12
single rockets in the first stage and four in the second--are
scheduled for next year. Kayser believes he will be ready to
launch a test satellite by 1979 and that a final satellite
booster comprised of 400 individual rockets clustered to form
several stages will be ready by 1980.//
//The scientist asserts that his space booster
wi be able to put 10 tons into a near earth orbit. The pro-
gram has not yet attracted any customers and is unlikely to
do so until the multiple-stage rocket has been tested success-
fully. West German tax legislation, however, will probably con-
tinue to make the program attractive to investors.//
Kayser's work is drawing fire from Moscow. Last week,
e Soviets presented Bonn a demarche expressing concern over
the reported development of a West German rocket test site in
Zaire. The Soviets asserted that the site has a clear military
potential and would give impetus to "the nuclear-missile arms
race" in new regions of the world and would be in violation of
international agreements.
The demarche coincides with new accusations about West
German military and nuclear cooperation with South Africa from
a group possibly funded by East Germany and with Soviet charges
that West Germany is aiding a South African nuclear weapons pro-
gram. The timing suggests a Soviet-directed propaganda campaign
to embarrass West Germany and the West Europeans at a time when
they are trying to increase ties with black Africa and to counter
Soviet influence in the ar a
TURKEY: Devaluation Possible
Turkey will deyaZ
ue the Zira tomorrow or Friday,
in an attempt to cut the trade
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deficit. The Demirel government has been reluctant in the
past substantially to devalue the lira or to implement other
austerity measures, arguing that exports would pick up as
economic recovery continues in major markets and that devalua-
tion would discourage imports vital to Turkey's economic de-
ve l opment. //
Foreign exchange reserves have been fluctuating be-
tween $500 million and $700 million for four months--at best
45 days of import cover. Turkey has staved off a further draw-
down of reserves by restricting import payments to such priority
items as oil and military goods.
Turkey owes an estimated $700 million to $800 million
for imports and $300 million in overdrafts with foreign banks.
Foreign exchange deposits by foreign banks totaling $385
million will come due for redemption or renewal by the end of
the year; Turkey has been having trouble meeting demands for
redemption of such deposits for several months. Potential
creditors are waiting for the government to work out a loan
agreement with the International Monetary Fund, which would
commit the Turks to an austerity program. Ankara reportedly
will soon initiate discussions with the IMF.
Imposing such a program would be politically painful
for Prime Minister Demirel. It would threaten the very high
rates of growth--the current five-year plan calls for annual
real growth of 8 percent--that have become the norm in Turkey.
Slower increases in production would make it even more difficult
to absorb the expansion of the labor force; unemployment is al-
ready an estimated 20 percent in urban areas. Demirel may never-
theless be forced to take austerity measures to keep the bene-
fits of devaluation from being washed out by inflation. Con-
sumer prices are currently rising at an annual rate of 25 per-
cent.
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The series of bombings throughout EZ Salvador last
weekend was probably an attempt by terrorists to goad the
government into repressive action. Despite its obvious concern,
especially in view of the visit of the King and Queen of Spain
scheduled for mid-September, the government plans to investi-
gate the incidents through regular channels. It will prosecute
any suspects as criminals, and not as subversives.
The left-wing Peoples Revolutionary Army has claimed
responsibility for the 27 bombs that exploded at approximately
the same time early on Sunday. Six bombs were in the capital,
and the others in major cities and towns across the country.
Apparently by design, property damage was minor and only a few
people were slightly injured. The wide scope and the coordina-
tion of the bombings suggest that the terrorists were not only
seeking publicity but were also serving notice on the govern-
ment of their potential for countrywide activity.
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In an apparently unrelated incident another t
r
group kidnaped a prominent Salvadoran doctor earlier this
month.
As ransom, the group demanded--and got--a large cash payment
and the publication of a manifesto on the front page of four
leading newspapers.
Salvadoran officials believe the terrorists are
ri-
p
mari y interested in negating improvements President Romero has
made in the country's human rights image since he assumed office
on July 1. Although its recent moves in this directi
on may be
mere windowdressing, the new administration will probably make
every effort to avoid a return to overt repression, at least
PHILIPPINES: Martial Law Relaxed
Philippine President Marcos' much-
ublici
d
di
p
ze
mo
fi-
cation of the martial Zaw decrees appears more limited in scope
than his sweeping rhetoric had implied. He nonetheless believes
that the gesture will improve his human rights image at a time
when he is pressing for the resumption of negotiations with the
US on the military bases agreement.
Marcos' amnesty decree reaffirms earlier dire
ti
c
ves
that applied only to low-level detainees who wish to return
"voluntarily" to the folds of the law. By :most official accounts,
there are close to 4,000 detainees in the Philippines. Prominent
political detainees, such as former senator Benigno Aquino--Mar-
cos' chief political rival before his imprisonment shortly after
martial law was declared in 1972--will not be affected by Marcos'
announcement.
Despite his statement that he had ended the nation-
wide curfew, subsequent reports indicate that the Phili
i
pp
ne
military will soon designate critical areas of the country where
the curfew will be maintained. Marcos' promise to hold local
elections "not later than next year" will not affect his author-
itarian rule.
At a major international gathering of jurists i
M
il
n
an
a
this week, Marcos addressed the human rights question from the
Philippine perspective. He defended his use of martial law to
"restructure" Philippine society and asserted that his reforms
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are being carried out under legal restraints. Marcos asserted
that the Western and communist powers have turned the campaign
for human rights into an ideological battle.
universally ordained."
dogmatism has often resulted in the intervention of the strong
in the affairs of the weak, to enforce an objective they consider
the Philippine leader observed that "it is regrettable that
In an attempt to win points among nonaligned nations,
China's new ambassador to the USSR, Wang Yu-ping,
departed yesterday for Moscow, according to an official Chinese
announcement. Coming on the third day of Secretary Vance's
visit to Peking, the announcement serves as a gentle reminder
to the US that the Chinese have not closed the door to eventual
improvements in state-to-state relations with the USSR.
The move does not, however, signal any overall improve-
ment in the hostile relationship between Peking and Moscow.
Party Chairman Hua Kuo-feng forcefully reiterated Chinese oppo-
sition to the USSR in his speech to the party's 11th congress
last week, saying differences between the two sides would con-
tinue for "a long time" and blaming the Soviets for the ab-
sence of any improvement in relations. Chinese propaganda con-
tinues to berate the Soviets in the strongest terms.
The Soviets agreed to the assignment of the new am-
bassadorlin June. Wang is an experienced diplomat and has
served in such sensitive posts as Romania, Cambodia, North
Vietnam, and Cuba. He was China's first ambassador to Malaysia
and left Kuala Lumpur in April. There has been no Chinese am-
Moscow radio yesterday broadcast a Foreign Ministry
is s e
ment stresses that this action violates both the letter of the
statement conveyed to the US embassy that chides the US for re-
fusing to issue visitors' visas to several Soviet trade union-
; t arlier this month. According to the broadcast, the state-
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existing US-Soviet agreement on contacts, exchanges, and coopera-
tion and the spirit of the Helsinki accord. Moscow's comment
that this was not the first instance of US "discrimination"
against Soviet citizens in visa matters undoubtedly referred to
the US refusal in late April of visas to another group of Soviet
trade union members. In early May, Tass publicized a relatively
low-key Soviet diplomatic protest against that action.
Although yesterday's Foreign Ministry statement ap-
parently was also modest, the publicity for it betrays Moscow's
continuing satisfaction at being able to point out, in the words
of the broadcast, the inconsistency of US words and deeds on
contacts among peoples.
Two men associated with the Lithuanian branch of the
Moscow-based group of dissidents set up to monitor Soviet
compliance with the Helsinki accord have been seized by police,
according to press reports from Moscow. Viktoras Pyatkus, a
member of the local chapter, reportedly was arrested. Antanas
Tserlatskas, who is close to the group, may have been detained
only for questioning.
The dissident monitoring group, which also has chapters
in the 'Ukraine, Georgia, and Armenia, has been the focus of
Soviet anti-dissident moves since early this year. Some 10 of
its members have been arrested or convicted on various charges.
Those under arrest in Moscow include the group's leaders:
founder Yury Orlov, and members Aleksandr Ginzburg and Anatoly
Shcharansky. No arrests of the group's members have been
reported from Armenia or, until now, Lithuania.
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