NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030300010054-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2005
• Sequence Number: 54
• Publication Date: September 12, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Monday 12 September 1977 CG NIDC_77-212C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, 12 September 1977
The NID Cable is tor the purpose ot intorming
senior US o icials.
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ETHIOPIA-SOMALIA: Situation Report
PANAMA: Canal Treaty
BRIEF:
USSR
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ETHIOPIA-SOMALIA: Situation Report
I IEthiopia apparently Launched its first ai.r attacks
aga'ns omali territory on Friday and Saturday. The strikes,
conducted against the Somali air base at Hargeisa, may boost
Ethiopian morale but could also trigger a widening of the war.
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The air strikes, carried out by F-5 fighters, appar-
ently caused very little damage to the base and its surround-
ing facilities. A Soviet transport aircraft was hit during the
raid, according to Somali news reports, but the base's fuel
depots apparently were not damaged. We cannot confirm claims
by the Somalis that they shot down three of the six Ethiopian
aircraft that reportedly took part in the two raids.
I I Somali press reports say Ethiopian aircraft also
stagec an attack Thursday on a border post, resulting in sev-
eral casualties. The village's population apparently had been
swelled by refugees from the heavy fighting at nearby Jijiga.
I I The Ethiopians probably believed that the attacks on
argexsa were justified by Somalia's assault on Jijiga, where
regular Somali units have been more blatantly involved than in
fighting at other Ethiopian garrisons.
1~ The air strike will almost certainly boost Ethiopian
morale and may be followed by others. At the same time, the
air attack may lead to a wider war by opening the way to a new
range of tactics that could include a Somali strike on the port
facilities and oil refinery at Assab in Eritrea. While the So-
malis have probably been willing from the beginning of their
invasion of the Ogaden to accept the consequences of Ethiopian
air raids on Hargeisa, the Ethiopia s can ill afford to lose
their facilities at Assab.
PANAMA: Canal Treaty
//Panamanian Chief of Government Torrijos
presente the signed copy of the new canal treaty to President
Lakas Friday before a peaceful crowd of about 70,000--a figure
somewhat short of government predictions but ZikeZy to be in-
flated in official estimates. Torrijos' relatively brief, mod-
erate speech contained only one surprise. He announced that the
plebiscite on the treaty will be held on 23 October--about a
month earlier than most officials had predicted.//
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than 1.00,000 and the administration had expended considerable
//The crowd was very large by Panamanian
standards, although the government press had predicted more
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energy to boost attendance. Officials are likely to be satis-
fied with but not elated by the gathering; a high-level admin-
istration figure earlier commented that the rally would be a
test of treaty support and that more than 100,000 would be
interpreted as strong public backing.//
I //No anti-US or anti-government incidents
were repor e . In the wake of Wednesday's anti-treaty demon-
strations by students--firmly put down by the National Guard--
there was a highly visible military presence throughout Panama
City.//
//Most officials, including the head of the
electoral tribunal, had been assuming a mid-to-late November
date for the plebiscite. Torrijos' announcement that it will
take place on 23 October will fuel charges by some of his op-
ponents that he is attempting to push through a favorable vote
without sufficient public discussion.
Soviet coverage of the ceremonies in Washington sur-
rounding the signing of the Panama Canal treaty was generally
negative and critical. On Thursday, Moscow television commentary
accused the US of pressing Panama to accept a treaty that leaves
open the issue of future US military intervention. The commen-
tary nevertheless concluded that reactionary forces in the US
would prevent ratification of the treaty.
I IOn Friday Pravda grudgingly admitted that the treaty
mar Ks ashington's acceptance of Panamanian sovereignty but
emphasized that the US still maintains control. and privileges
over the canal until the end of the century. Soviet media cover-
age also hit at US "hypocrisy," contrasting Washington's pro-
fessed concern for human rights with its willingness to extend
hospitality to such forces of "fascism" as the "bloody" Pinochet
of Chile.
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