NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030300010080-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 8, 2006
• Sequence Number: 80
• Publication Date: September 27, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Tuesday 27 September 1977 CG NIDC 77/225C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
dwmma
State Dept. review completed
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Top Secret
(Security Classification)
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Adw AW AW AW Aff Aff AW Aliff Aff
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 27 September 1977
e is or e purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
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BURMA: Political Party Purge
ASEAN-US: A Halting First Step
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Page 8
USSR: :Private Agriculture Policy
Philippines-China
Sweden
France
Fiji
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ISRAEL - ARAB STATES: Concession
I The Israeli Government's acceptance of a Palestinian
presence at Geneva as part of a unified Arab delegation is be-
ing played by the Israeli press as a major concession to the
US. Israeli leaders probably regard their decision as the,mini-
mum they had to do to avoid the appearance of inflexibility and
to satisfy a US desire to maintain some momentum in negotia-
tions. The Arab response has been critical but cautious.
I I By attaching stringent conditions to this concession,
the Begin government has protected itself domestically against
charges that it has caved in to the US on substantive matters
or has given up much on procedural issues. The government has
ruled out direct participation by the Palestine Liberation Or-
ganization at Geneva and is insisting that, after the initial
ceremonial session, bilateral, geographically oriented commit-
tees be set up to discuss substantive issues, with the Pales-
tinians participating as part of the Jordanian negotiating team.
The PLO has not responded officially to the Israeli
announcement, although one of its member groups, the Marxist-
oriented Popular Democratic Front for the Liberation of Pales-
tine, publicly denounced the Israeli move as "trickery." PLO
officials long have lobbied for equal and independent repre-
sentation at Geneva but have left room for compromise.
While continuing to insist that the PLO itself must
receive a formal invitation to attend, PLO spokesmen have occa-
sionally, implied that the organization might not necessarily
require separate representation at the conference. The PLO ap-
parently is willing to consider being represented at Geneva by
low-level PLO officials or by non-PLO Palestinians.
Muhammad Nashashibi, a moderate member of the PLO
Executive Committee, told a Western diplomat in Damascus on
20 September that the PLO would have "no problem" accepting
relative unknowns to represent its interests at Geneva.
I Representation by a group of Palestinian mayors from
the West Bank area probably is one option that the PLO has con-
sidered. While not formal members of the PLO, many of the mayors
are sympathetic to the organization's goals. It is unlikely,
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however, that a delegation representing West Bank majority
opinion would agree to represent Palestinian interests at Ge-
neva without the PLO's full sanction and support.
compromise on the representation issue, the PLO is keeping up
the pressure for an official presence. In an interview on Sun-
day, the PLO's permanent observer to the UN warned that any
agreement negotiated by non-PLO Palestinians "will not commit
the PLO" to observe its terms.
I I Egyptian Foreign Minister Fahmi issued a statement
in ew ork yesterday, terming the Israeli proposals an insin-
cere effort to convince the US public of Israeli flexibility.
Cairo no doubt wants further clarification of the conditions
Israel has attached to accepting Palestinians as part of a
united Arab delegation and of US views on these conditions.
I I Fahmi and other Egyptian officials in New York have
warne , owever, that Israel's position may be only a "tactical
move" intended to exclude the PLO from the substance of peace
talks and that such action should not be allowed to pre-empt
efforts to establish a dialogue between the US and the PLO.
ing new in agreeing to accept Palestinians at the opening cere-
monies of a Geneva conference. The mere reconvening of the Ge-
neva talks is not adequate, the official Syrian daily declared
yesterday, and, while US recognition of the need for Palestin-
ian representation is "a positive initiative," this is accept-
able only if the PLO is specifically included in the conference.
Despite its apparent willingness at least to consider
Syria has asserted that Israel has come up with noth-
The Syrians had earlier shown that they were intrigued
by the U statement that the Palestinians must be represented
at Geneva, and they will no doubt continue to press for a US
commitment specifically to the PLO in this regard. They will
not, however, take seriously an Israeli proposal that not only
omits the PLO from consideration but also limits acceptance of
a united Arab delegation solely to the opening ceremonies.
Jordan has endorsed the idea of a unified Arab dele-
gation but sharply attacked the proposal that subsequent nego-
tiations be handled by geographic committees. A Jordanian state-
ment said that any negotiations on substantive issues should be
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handled by working groups--presumably composed of delegates
from each of the confrontation states. The statement was appar-
ently designed to counter Israeli press reports that Jordan had
agreed to the idea of geographic committees.
The issue of Palestinian representation was not men- 25X1
tioned in the statement, but Jordan is believed to be willing
to accept non-PLO Palestinians as part of either a unified Arab 5X1
or a Jordanian delegation.
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BURMA: Political Party Purge
The recent dismissal and detention of two Burmese
cabinet ministers appears to be the beginning of a purge in
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the Burma Socialist Program Party, the country's only legal
political party. Up to 60 persons have reportedly been detained
for questioning.
JThe detained ministers appear to have offended Presi-
dent an party chairman Ne Win by supporting personnel changes
in the party last February that were not to his liking. The
charges against the ministers are not clear, but at least some
are accused of corruption.
This latest weeding out appears to reflect Ne Win's
personal whim rather than any change in government policies.
Ridding the party of undesirables now will eliminate possible
opposition to Ne Win's hand-picked candidates for election to
the rubber-stamp People's Assembly next January.
I The timing of the party action, just before Ne Wins
planned departure tomorrow for Europe, fits his past pattern 25X1
of leaving the country during party housecleanings, leaving
the details to his underlings. Ne Win has no serious challeng-
ers, and his trip abroad reflects his confidence.
ASEAN-US: A Halting First Step
Members of the Association of South-East Asian Na-
tions apparently intend to persist in their efforts to obtain
special treatment and financial aid from the US. They welcomed
the first dialogue between the US and ASEAN early this month as
a sign that the US recognizes that ASEAN has a role to play in
the development and stability of Southeast Asia, but they were
disappointed by US rejection of their principal proposals.
The five ASEAN states--Indonesia, Malaysia, the Phil-
ippines, Singapore, and Thailand--had hoped to get US backing
for a regional arrangement to stabilize their earnings from
commodity exports. They also proposed US economic assistance
for regional industrialization projects.
From the ASEAN perspective, US rejection of these pro-
posals was balanced to some extent by US promises to try to im-
prove the access of ASEAN products to the US market and to en-
courage US private investment in ASEAN states.
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ASEAN members, however, have not abandoned hope for
special US treatment. Malaysia, in particular, is likely to
persist, and Prime Minister Hussein bin Onn will probably bring
up the issue during his talks in the US this week. A second US-
ASEAN dialogue is scheduled for next June.
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USSR: Private Agriculture Policy
Official Soviet support for the private farming
sector remains high, spurred by Moscow's effort to correct the
shortages of meat and other foods stemming from the poor 1975
harvest. Such support has been evident since Zast autumn but it
reached almost campaign proportions during the summer.
The Soviets have had an unusually difficult time
recovering from the harvest disaster of 1975. Although meat
output rose by 11 percent during the first seven months of
1.977, this growth was not sufficient to bring supplies back
to the levels achieved in the same period of 1974 and 1975. As
a result, consumers are still facing substantial shortages of
meat and dairy products in some areas. //At the end of August,
for example, a resident of a central Asian town reported that
meat was still being rationed locally.//
The USSR's private agricultural sector, made up
of garden-sized plots of land allocated to rural workers and
of privately owned livestock, supplies about 30 percent of the
country's total meat and milk output and 60 percent of potato
output. Last year, when it became apparent that the USSR's meat
shortage would linger for some time, official support for the
sector began to come to the surface, another swing in a long
history of policy vacillations toward this sector.
I uIn the past, a policy of tolerance or encouragement
prevailed for several years after a poor harvest that was grad-
ually eroded by good harvests. These swings are best reflected
in the value of privately held livestock. These holdings in-
creased substantially during the early years of the current re-
gime but have dwindled since, while herds in the socialized
sector have grown.
I ILast October at the party plenum, Soviet President
13rez nev demanded "more attention and care" for the private
plots. At the Trade Union Congress in March of this year he
called on consumer co-ops to help market surplus output. The
draft Soviet constitution, published in early June, contained
a new provision that allowed all citizens "to conduct subsidi-
ary farming, including the raising of livestock and poultry."
Assistance to private agriculture was ordered by a July decree
aimed at improving retail trade.
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Over the past year, the Soviet press advocated ex-
tensive aid to the private plots, including the provision of
assured supplies of feed and pasture, the fattening of private
livestock at state and collective facilities, the production
of small portable tools and mechnized implements suitable for
small areas, the packaging of fertilizer in small quantities,
and the establishment of better procurement facilities for the
purchase of surplus production from private plots. Other arti-
cles have struggled to define the fine line between private
farming activities that smack of capitalism and those that con-
tribute to the "building of a socialist state."
The recent measures to provide more stable support
for the private sector have not been sufficient to effect a
substantial boost in private plot activity. Moreover, there
are powerful economic forces at work against. such a revival.
Growing farm incomes, larger pension schemes, rising demand
for leisure time, and greater availability of processed farm
products all make private farming a less attractive alternative.
Also, the drive to organize state livestock in centralized,
specialized farms will make it more difficult for private farm-
ers to have access to supplies of feed and young livestock.
Philippines-China:
A Philippine military delegation led by the Armed
Forces , ief of Staff departed on Sunday for a five-day visit
to China. The Philippine Defense Secretary has confided that
the Chinese have been seeking such a visit for some time.
I Relations between the Philippines and China were es-
a is.e in June 1975 and have progressed modestly. Philippine
trade with China this year could reach $100 million.
si_stent effort to balance his foreign policy moves regarding
the major Communist powers.
I The trip may, in part, reflect President Marcos' con- 25X1
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Sweden's fishing quota has been increased from 80,000
to 132, 0 tons to take into account the extended fishing zone
that Sweden unilaterally announced this summer. The new quota
was agreed to by the Baltic Commission, composed of the seven
signatories of the Gdansk Convention of 1973.
At the same time it raised the Swedish quota, the
Baltic Commission, for reasons of conservation, reduced the
overall catch to be taken from the Baltic. This necessitated
large quota cuts for other Baltic states; the Soviet catch
quota was reduced by 25 percent--the largest: cut.
Swedish Agriculture and Fisheries Minister Dahlgren
said we en would use part of the new quota in its bilateral
negotiations with other Baltic states for reciprocal fishing
arrangements. Sweden is especially interested in negotiating
with EC countries to retain rights to traditional Swedish fish-
ing grounds in the North Sea, which have recently been included
in the EC fishing zone.
French Prime Minister Barre replaced his Minister of
Equipment and two cabinet-level secretaries of state in a minor
cabinet shuffle occasioned by the election Sunday of the three
men to the Senate. The changes will not alter the "apolitical"
nature of the Barre cabinet. A fourth successful senatorial
candidate, the Industry minister, has chosen to remain in the
cabinet.
Fiji.
The Fiji Alliance Party's landslide victory in the
par i.amen ary election concluded over the weekend opens the way
f:or five more years of Prime Minister Ratu Mara's temperate
leadership. His party's control of 36 of the 52 parliamentary
seats will strengthen his hand in dealing with Fiji's racial
and labor problems. The Prime Minister's position had been
weakened following the Alliance's surprise defeat in the par-
liamentary election last April.
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A crippling split in the Indian-led opposition con-
tributed to the government's wide margin. A blatantly racist
Fijian party's loss of its single seat will deny it a parlia-
mentary forum for the rhetoric that has aggravated communal
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