NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010002-1
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• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 14, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Friday 14 October 1977 CG NIDC 77/239C
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The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, 14 October 1977.
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CONTENTS
EC: Conflicting Strategies on Steel
Page 2
NORTH YEMEN: Assassination Aftermath
Page 5
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USSR: Jewish Protest Statement
Page 7
SOUTH AFRICA - ISRAEL:
Missile Boats
Page 9
BRIEFS
Page 11
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EC: Conflicting Strategies on Steel
voluntary restraints on exports to the US are meeting resis-
tance from the EC Commission. The producers, who are primarily
concerned that antidumping actions brought by US producers,
will become "institutionalized," want to avoid permanent re-
strictions on their exports. The Commission, on the other hand,
wants to deal with the broader problems of excess steel capac-
ity worldwide, and apparently fears that concessions by Euro-
pean producers would reduce the EC's leverage in international
discussions.
Proposals by West European steel producers for
her this week proposed a two- to three-year voluntary re-
straint agreement covering EC exports to the US. EUROFER's
president, Jacques Ferry, suggested that a "trigger approach"
be employed to activate the agreement whenever a certain level
of import penetration or unemployment was reached.
The association of EC steel producers, EUROFER, ear-
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gested that the biannual EC-US consultations scheduled for
early November focus on steel issues. He also wants the US, the
EC, and Japan to meet in Washington before the end of the year
to discuss limiting industry capacity.
EC Commissioner Davignon, meanwhile, has sug-
of a trade war and that trade measures alone would only camou-
flage the structural difficulties of the industry. He has indi-
cated to US officials that the Commission would be willing to
consider measures affecting both the price and quantity of steel
exports, providing the measures were temporary and part of a
multilateral agreement on long-term objectives--including
limiting capacity.
focusing on tolerable export quantities would mark the beginning
Davignon contends that bilateral conversations
mission have attempted to enforce delivery guidelines and mini-
mum prices for steel products within the Community and to de-'
vise plans for closing out obsolete and inefficient plants.
Many Community producers believe the Commission cannot enforce
its price regulations, particularly on small Italian firms, and
that the rationalization program will take too long.
steel industry problems are an extension of his plan to re-
structure the EC steel industry. To this end, he and the Com-
Davingnon's proposals for handling international
Davignon and the Commission will be hard-pressed to maintain
EC unity in negotiations with the US and Japan. US officials
in Paris believe the French Government already has warned the
Commission that it must bring the Italians in line on prices
and move against "unfair competition" from Spain and Eastern
Europe or else France may act unilaterally.
Without support from member states for his plan,
efforts to tamper with market forces in the steel industry, ap-
parently are under increasing pressure from domestic manufac-
turers to provide relief. West German Minister of Economics
Lambsdorff said this week that Bonn would not be averse to a
trilateral Japanese-EC-US arrangement on steel.
West German officials, who heretofore have opposed
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continue to undercut prices of the large, integrated producers
in other member countries. The Commission is tentatively con-
sidering ways to help the Brescia producers sell their steel
outside the EC in return for a commitment by the producers to
abide by EC price and delivery guidelines.
in the Brescia region of Italy earlier this week but still be-
lieves a solution can be worked out. The producers in Brescia
Davignon got a cool reception from steel producers
year.
an agreement with Japan to limit Japanese steel exports this
quantitative and price restrictions on steel imports from East
Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia. The Community already has
the East Europeans. A member of Davignon's staff has indicated
that the Community is on the verge of an agreement to impose
The Commission already has been forced to move against
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NORTH YEMEN: Assassination Aftermath
North Yemeni President Ibrahim al-Hamdi on Tuesday. Specula-
tion is rife in North Yemen, however, that Hamdi's successor
as chairman of the Command Council, Lieutenant Colonel Ahmad
aZ-Ghashmi, was involved.
There is still no firm information as to who killed
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President of murdering Hamdi.
are circulating among the general public as well. During Hamdi's
funeral yesterday some members of the crowd accused the new
Rumors that Ghashmi was behind the death of Hamdi
Yemenis in general tend to see political conspiracies in every
act, and Ghashmi is a natural target for such allegations be-
have some ty in convincin many Yemenis.
cause he benefited from Hamdi's death. Ghashmi may have opposed
some of Hamdi's policies, such as his efforts to improve rela-
tions with South Yemen, but in general he appeared to have been
a loyal and close supporter of the late President.
Even if Ghashmi had no part in Hamdi's death, he will
If Ghashmi is indeed linked to the
assassination and his involvement becomes known, serious strife
could ensue between his military and civilian supporters on the
one hand and those formerly loyal to Hamdi on the other
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Soviet authorities, meanwhile, have apparently decided to
crack down on a dissident group concerned about the regime's
abuse of psychiatry in the treatment of political prisoners.
statement, signed by more than 100 Jews from various Soviet
cities, announcing a three-day hunger strike beginning on
16 October to protest Soviet policies toward Jews in the USSR.
The US Embassy in Moscow has obtained a copy of a
addressed to the heads of all the states that are participating
in the current Belgrade conference on European security and co-
operation, but particularly to Soviet President Brezhnev. About
80 Jews plan to participate in the hunger strike; some 30 others
have associated themselves with the statement but will not fast.
The statement announcing the Jewish hunger strike is
a willingness to quietly make limited concessions to Jews seek-
ing to emigrate; during the first nine months of 1977, more
than 12,000 exit visas were issued to Soviet Jews, compared to
fewer than 10,000 during the same period last year. At the same
time, the Soviets seem intent on making clear their determina-
tion to crack down hard on those who undertake highly publicized
human rights activities, especially if these are likely to gen-
erate an official Western response.
the Soviets and may set back Jewish efforts to emigrate. Mos-
cow, with an eye on the Belgrade conference, has recently shown
The lengthy statement will be highly embarrassing to
preme Soviet for exit permits last week apparently remain under
house arrest. Other Jews who planned to take advantage of West-
ern attention to the Supreme Soviet session to publicize their
case reportedly were prevented from traveling to Moscow.
activists and would-be emigrants who tried to petition the Su-
Several members of a small but vocal group of Jewish
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down on the recently intensified activities of a small dissi-
dent group concerned with the USSR's abuse of psychiatry. Feliks
Serebrov, a member of the dissident Committee for the Investi-
gation of the Use of Psychiatry for Political Ends, has been
sentenced to one year in a labor camp for using a forged docu-
The Soviets apparently have also decided to crack
ment. Aleksandr Podrabinek, a leading member of the Committee
was interrogated recently by the police, and the homes of sev-
eral other members of the Committee reportedly were searched.
o formal charges have yet been brought against
Podrabine , who has been detained in this way before--most re-
cently in July. Dissident spokesman Andrey Sakharov believes
the police were seeking evidence about Podrabinek's activities,
possibly to prepare further action against him and the Commit-
tee, an offshoot of the larger group set up to monitor Soviet
compliance with the Helsinki accords.
tion issued by the Congress of the World Psychiatric Associa-
tion in Honolulu last month that censured the USSR for incar-
cerating dissidents in mental institutions. Podrabinek report-
edly provided documentation of Soviet abuses to the association.
The Soviets may also still be smarting over a resolu-
sary of the Bolshevik revolution approaches.
record and various other aspects of its domestic policies will
probably intensify over the next few weeks as the 60th anniver-
The USSR's sensitivity regarding its human rights
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SOUTH AFRICA - ISRAEL: Missile Boats
first of three Israeli-built Reshef missile patrol boats it
//South Africa took delivery Zast month of the
he other two boats repor e y are u oo
arrive in South Africa over the next three months. South Africa
is building three more Reshefs under license.//
-rd_erPd two Aears ago
problems were discovered during sea trial; apparently they
finally accepted the boat in Jul .
first boat in May but refused delivery when some equipment
The South Africans were scheduled to receive their
for coastal defense, can be equipped to carry Gabriel ship-to-
ship missiles and naval guns. We believe the original contract
The Reshef, which the South Africans intend to use
almost certainly called for the provision of Gabriels, but we
do not know whether the boat recently delivered to South Africa
was equipped with them.
srael apparently will provide South Africa with
Italian-made naval guns for the Reshefs being built in Durban.
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].eft the im-
pression that the Italians had delivered the guns to Israel
and left the matter of their transfer to South Africa in Is-
raeli hands.
built Reshefs before completion of the three under construction
locally. The US defense attache in Pretoria reported in late
August that one hull was near completion.
South Africa expects to receive the three Israeli-
//The contract for the Reshefs, which apparently
took several months to negotiate, is worth more than $60 mil-
lion. It is Israel's largest arms sale to South Africa.//
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The Soviets have reversed their recent decision not
to grant a visa to a US scientist and have agreed to accept
him for an eight-month research program.
in an unusual move, had denied a visa in Au-
Moscow
,
gust to Dr. Melvyn Nathanson, a mathematics professor from
Southern Illinois University, even though his research program
had been approved by the Soviet Academy of Sciences. The Soviets
subsequently may have become concerned that the scientific ex-
change program--which they find extremely useful--might be ad-
versely affected by the visa denial. They may also have been
troubled by New York Times coverage of the episode, which sug-
gested that the matter might be aired at the Belgrade confer-
ence on European security and cooperation.
~ n any ,
sal was based on "very solid grounds," but that granting the
visa now will serve the interest of "benevolent relations" be-
tween the scientific communities of both countries.
I case the Soviets now say the original refu-
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President Marcos has ordered the Philippine military
to hunt down as outlaws the Muslim rebels who killed a brigadier
general and 33 of his men four days ago. The government main-
tains that the 10-month-old ceasefire with the rebels is still
in effect and is apparently confining its intensified activi-
ties to the southern Philippine island of Jolo, the scene.of
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the ambush. Marcos may find it difficult, however, to contain
the military's outrage. The inclination of the military toward
harsh counteraction will be increased by another ambush on Jolo
Wednesday in which a lieutenant colonel was killed.
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