CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 46
• Content Type: REPORT

r
1
S Aar
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
ROUTING
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPA
RE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
1
1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE, 0
Thursday 10 November 1977 CG NIDC 77/261C
1
1
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Tnn Carrot 'M '9
(Security Classification)
0
0 State Dept. review AhMENIA Top Secret
DIA review(s) 0
1
(Security Classification)
,jJW A Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
'Aw
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3 25X1
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, 10 November 1977
The NID Cable is for t e purpose otin orming
CONTENTS
ISRAEL-LEBANON: Military Situation
OPEC: Oil Price Situation Report
POLAND: Severe Meat Shortages
THAILAND-VIETNAM: Diplomatic
BRIEFS
USSR - Middle East
Egypt-Czechoslovakia
Yugoslavia
France
USSR
Page 1
Page 2
Page 6
Page 8
Page 8
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3 25X1
ISRAEL-LEBANON: Military Situation
The Israelis appear to be warning the Palestinians
that they will retaliate even more severely if attacks on Is-
raeli border villages continue. Israel's chief of staff said in
a press interview yesterday that the Israelis would refrain
from using further force if the cease-fire is maintained, but
the Israelis appear to have made some preparations near the bor-
d
h
er s
ould they choose to take further military action. F___1 25Y1
The Israelis could draw on parts of thr
ee armored
divisions that are within 40 kilometers of the border and
mechanized border police units already in the area.
If the Israelis do launch ground operations int
o
Lebanon, they probably will attempt to clean
t P
l
ou
a
estinian strongholds in the immediate border area. They would
most likely use company-size units in operations in both the
western and central sectors. They also might attempt commando
raids against guerrilla camps near Tyre. In addition, the Is-
raelis probably would lend ground, and possibly air, support
to Lebanese Christian forces to drive the Palestinians from
strongholds near Al Khiyam,.
We have detected no unusual militar
acti
i
y
v
ty by
Syrian forces in either Syria or Lebanon. We believe that the
Syrians probably will take some precautionary measures.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
OPEC: Oil Price Situation Report
//The US Embassy in Djakarta has reported
that Indonesian Oil Minister Sadli has reacted negatively to the
recent US demarche on OPEC oil prices. He stated the US is not
supported by the other major oil importing countries such as
Japan and that the OPEC countries disagree with US assessment
of the causes of inflation and the economic impact of increased
oil prices.//
//Sadli said he thought the OPEC majority
would advocate a price rise of 5 to 10 pecent unless it judged
that such a hike would undercut their short-run financial in-
terests. For his part, President Suharto reportedly favors an
increase of 5 to 7 percent.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3 25X1
Document Denied
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
POLAND: Severe Meat Shortages
The apparent worsening of meat shortages in Poland
will increase the prospects for strikes, demonstrations, and
other civil disorders until the regime releases the supplies
it is evidently stockpiling for the Christmas season.
A Polish foreign trade official told a US Embassy
officer that the meat situation is probably worse now than
any time since World War IT.
Occasional fights requiring police intervention have
broken out at state-controlled meat stores where people must
now reportedly stand in line "for the better part of a day"
if they hope to get anything. The wife of a US Embassy officer
recently noticed a "near panic scene" in a meat store just after
a delivery. Silesian miners, the elite of Polish workers, staged
strikes at the end of September because of meat shortages.
A Polish East-West trade expert blamed shortages on
large exports of meat; he said that the government is more in-
terested in earning hard currency than supplying the domestic
market. The regime, however, has cut meat exports sharply since
the June 1976 riots. It has also imported 130,000 tons of meat
so far this year, compared with 72,000 tons in 1976.
Earlier Government policies that dampened incentives
for private farmers to expand livestock production and poor
harvests since 1975 are major reasons for the shortages. The
severe problem has presumably been exacerbated as well by the
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3 25X1
official practice of limiting supplies to the market in late
October and November to ensure adequate stocks for the Christmas
season.
In the meantime, the regime will react to any out-
bursts by shifting supplies, as it did when the Silesian coal
miners went on strike. Even so, the number of simultaneous
emergencies the regime can effectively handle is limited.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
THAILAND-VIETNAM: Diplomatic
/Thailand and Vietnam have agreed to exchange
diplomatic missions at the charge d'affaires Z&veZ before the
end of the year. Both sides reportedly have approved a joint
communique that will be signed after the new Thai Government
is established.//
//Vietnam has agreed to accept 100 Vietnamese
currently resident in Thailand and to release three Thai fish-
ing vessels and their crews that apparently were captured in
waters claimed by Hanoi. As in their negotiations last year,
both sides used symbolic gestures to finesse the treatment
and ultimate disposition of the Vietnamese community in Thai-
land and left a basic resolution of the thorny issue for the
future.//
lthough diplomatic relations were established between
the two countries in August 1976, the anti-Vietnamese cast of
former Prime Minister Thanin, who came to power in October 1976,
embittered relations and forestalled the opening of embassies.
The two sides have moved toward normalizing relations for sev-
eral months as the pragmatic Thai Military Council and. Foreign
ministry overcame Thanin's doctrinaire objections.
The chief of the Soviet Foreign Ministry's Near East
Department, Mikhail Sytenko, arrived home yesterday after a
nine-day visit to Syria, Jordan, and Egypt. Sytenko, who will
head the Soviet delegation to any future Geneva peace confer-
ence on the Middle East, took soundings on Arab attitudes
toward reconvening the conference. Apparently his talks did
not go well. Syrian and Egyptian accounts of the talks merely
acknowledged that "views were exchanged," phrasing that sug-
gests there was a certain amount of discord.
In Damascus Sytenko met with Syrian Foreign Minister
Khaddam, who snubbed the Soviet official during his visit to
Syria in February because of Soviet criticism of Syrian mili-
tary intervention in Lebanon. During Sytenko's recent visit,
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
the two sides quarrelled over last month's US-USSR statement
on the Middle East
The main impression left by Sytenko, according to
the Syrians, was that Moscow is eager for a return to Geneva.
Egypt-Czechoslovakia
Egypt and Czechoslovakia signed a trade protocol for
1978 yesterday in Cairo, according to the official Egyptian
news service. The new protocol includes the same commodities
that have been traded between the two countries this year with
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
the exception of raw cotton. In August, Egypt announced the
suspension of cotton exports to the USSR and Czechoslovakia;
the move was in response to the Soviet embargo, of arms and
spare parts to Egypt and their refusal to allow Czechoslovakia
to deliver tanks already paid for by Egypt. There were no re-
ports of talks on the arms supply problem while the Czechoslovak
trade delegation was in Cairo.
Yugoslavia
President Tito may be preparing to dampen public
speculation about his rift with his wife. Rumors attribute
Madame Broz' disfavor to her alleged intrigues with Serbian'
generals and Tito's resultant anger to her interference in
government affairs. Yugoslav sources are now saying that Madame
Broz will make a public appearance--her first in over four
months--at the National Day celebrations on 29 November. A
cameo appearance would carry the message that she is back in
favor, but only as long as she stays on her best behavior. Al-
though such a move would dampen rumors somewhat, it would not
repair the considerable damage that has already been done to
the regime's image.
Representatives of the liaison committee of the French
Left Alliance met yesterday in Paris for the first time since
talks on updating the Left's Common Program broke down on 23
September. Communist spokesman Charles Fiterman described the
meeting, which was requested by the Socialists, as "completely
negative"; he said that the Socialists did not make any new
concessions or proposals. None of the parties seems to have
changed its positions and no date was set for another meeting.
The talks followed an unusually bitter exchange be-
tween Communist. leader Marchais and Socialist leader Mitterrand
last weekend. Both still maintain they are willing to reopen
negotiations, but each continues to blame the other for the
breakdown in the Alliance. The Communists and the Socialists
probably needed to make some new gesture of goodwill to improve
their credibility with the substantial portion of the voters who
still back the Left Alliance.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3 25X1
The Soviets yesterday for the first time criticized
the US record on human rights at the CSCE review conference in
Belgrade. Soviet delegate Vorontsov raised the Wilmington 10
case as an example of alleged gross violations of human rights
in the US.
Vorontsov was replying to a statement by US Ambassador
Goldberg, who had referred to the "harassment, arrest, and im-
prisonment" of Soviet dissidents, and Czechoslovakia's expulsion
of some US journalists. The Soviet delegate termed Ambassador 25X1
Goldberg's statement "polemical" interference in the USSR's do-
mestic concerns and again warned that a "disruptive" US approach
would risk a "rupturing" of the review conference
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
 OF Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0
0
0
0
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010046-3