CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010078-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 78
• Publication Date: November 30, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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CONCURRENCE I IINFORMATION I ISIGNATURE
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Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Wednesday 30 November 1977 CG NIDC 77/277C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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Top Secret
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National Intelliqence Daily Cable for Wednesday, 30 November
1977.
The NID C
in ormi.ng senior US officials.
RHODESIA: More Blacks in Military
POLAND: Grain Imports May Soar
ROMANIA: More Worker Unrest
TURKEY: Search for Materiel
THAILAND: Amnesty Decree
BRIEFS:
Warsaw Pact
Chad
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Israel
Indonesia
Finland-USSR
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RHODESIA: More Blacks in Military
The Rhodesian Government of Prime Minister Smith has
implemented a crash program aimed at significantly increasing
the number of blacks in the security forces. The program is
one of a number of measures announced in September that are
aimed at meeting the military's increasing manpower needs. The
stepped-up recruitment of blacks, however, is a sharp departure
from previous policy and could be used to strengthen Smith's
defense of his decision to seek an internal settlement.
The Rhodesian Government has drawn the majority of
its security forces from a relatively small base of skilled
whites because it has a policy of keeping the proportion of
blacks to whites in the security forces in favor of the whites.
Blacks make up about half of the approximately 20,000 soldiers
on active duty and about a quarter of the police force.
The measures announced in September extended the re-
quired military service for prospective college students from
18 months to two years, required men with continual deferments
to join a reserve unit, and offered monthly bonuses for regulars
who extend for one year beyond their required 18-month tour or
who reenlist if they have completed their tour.
The most significant measure over the long term, how-
ever, is likely to be the push for additional black recruits for
the army. The Rhodesian press has begun to publicize the stepped-
up recruitment of blacks and recently claimed that some 400 per
month are being trained. Although we do not have reliable fig-
ures, the callup rate for whites is probably less than that.
The government has also opened officers' training to blacks
and recently commissioned the first group of black officers.
The Rhodesian press also recently reported that a policy for
drafting blacks will soon be announced; only volunteers are
taken now.
An increased flow of blacks into the military will
ease the demand on skilled whites and narrow the gap in numbers
between blacks and whites in the security forces. Most impor-
tant, however, the Smith regime can use an increase of blacks
in the security forces to bolster its long-held argument that
it commands the loyalty of Rhodesia's blacks, and thereby
strengthen the government's ability to defend its decision to
seek an internal settlement.
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on the UK-US proposals, a large black force, capably trained
and :Loyal to the state rather than any individual leader, could
On the other hand, in the event of a settlement based
act as a buffer against those guerrilla forces who would be in-
tegrated into the army of an independent Zimbabwe.
POLAND: Grain Imports May Soar
/Poland reportedly hopes to buy
grain in the marketing year ending on
1978.
cast Polish grain purchases at 6 to 7 million tons, the amounts
we projected in late September. The new, higher Polish import
requirements probably reflect a downward revision in the size
of the domestic potato crop as well as Warsaw's belief that a
more expansionary livestock policy is required if the widening
gap between meat production and retail demands is to be even
partially closed. A major decline in livestock numbers in 1976
had cut meat supplies drastically.//
//International grain traders continue to fore-
expected grain output to reach 22 million tons but now do not
expect production to exceed 19 million tons. In 1976, Poland
produced 20.9 million tons of grain, somewhat below average
because of a drought.//
/Just prior to the harvest, Polish officials had
//A Ministry of Agriculture official said that
this year's potato crop was a "disaster" because excessive
moisture led to disease and rot. He estimated the harvest at
no more than 44 million tons, compared with nearly 50 million
tons last year. Normally, about 55 percent of Poland's potato
crop is used as feed for livestock, primarily hogs. Unless non-
feed consumption of potatoes is cut, less than 50 percent of
this year's crop will be available for feed, adding an equiva-
lent estimated 2 million tons to this year's grain import re-
quirement.//
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//Hard-currency shortages have forced Poland to
seek grain in countries willing to finance most of these pur-
chases. Of the 10 million tons reportedly being sought, about
8.5 million tons--worth about $900 million--must be purchased
in the West, with the remainder coming from the USSR and other
East European countries.//
//Total purchases from the US, including those
under Commodity Credit Corporation credits, probably will ex-
ceed 3 million tons. About 3.3 million tons have already been
bought in other Western countries, more than two-thirds fi-
nanced with credits. Poland is searching for the remainder and
is pressing the US for additional credits under more generous
terms than those offered by the CCC.//
//Even if Poland is able to purchase 10 million
tons of grain, obtaining delivery will pose serious logistic
problems. During calendar year 1976, Polish imports of around
7 million tons of grain and fodder placed port operations under
severe stress.//
//At that time, Poland's three main grain ports--
Gdynia, Gdansk, and Szczecin--were reportedly working at ca-
pacity and handling a total of 20,000 tons of grain per 24-
hour day--10,000 tons a day short of what would be required
should 10 million tons of grain, as well as expected imports
of soybeans and soybean meal, be imported. Other Polish ports--
particularly Kolobrzeg and Swinoujscie--have some grain-handling
facilities, but the grain facilities at these ports are limited
by obsolete handling equipment.//
/Substantially increasing imports without a com-
mensurate decline or shift in the need to process other com-
modities through Polish ports would lead to severe port con-
gestion, such as in 1976. Poland may attempt to import much
of the additional grain by rail from West European ports using
the back haul of its coal trains.
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Coal miners in Romania's Jiu Valley are apparently
still restive following their strike in early August. A New
York Times journalist who visited the valley in mid-November
recently told a US diplomat in Bucharest that the miners are
becoming impatient over the government's attempts to deal with
their grievances.
hen President Ceausescu intervened personally to
quell the strikes, he promised to review the provisions of a
new pension law that had failed to increase benefits as ex-
pected, and had even cut or eliminated some annuities.
Ceausescu also said he would consider complaints about inade-
quate housing, low-quality food, and insufficent supplies of
consumer goods.
Since August, the regime has acted on some of the
miners' grievances. It amended the new pension law, raised
miners' salaries by 5 percent, guaranteed them other special
benefits--such as free meals--and promised to build apartments
and a new hospital and to establish more cultural and sports
programs.
At the same time, the regime transferred hundreds of
miners, presumably the malcontents, out of the valley to other
jobs. It also docked the miners' take-home pay because they
failed to fulfill production goals.
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In addition, the miners also told the journalist that
the consumer goods that flooded the valley for two weeks before
and after Ceausescu's most recent visit there early this month
have now disappeared. They were also upset over the.2,000 sol-
diers the government has sent into the valley, presumably to
augment the work force, as well as numbers of security personnel
who are infiltrating the local work force.
The journalist found little evidence that the miners
in contact with other groups of disaffected workers or in-
tellectuals within the country. Details of the disturbances in
August are nevertheless widely known and may have served as in-
spiration for other incidents. In October, there was a strike
at a textile plant in Tirgu Mures in central Romania; workers
there presented the same grievances as the Jiu Valley miners.
Ceausescu's personal prestige is clearly engaged in
the Jiu Valley situation. It will be difficult for him to shift
the blame completely to subordinates, such as the three deputy
ministers of mines, petroleum, and geology, who evidently lost
their jobs in early November. He shows little inclination, how-
ever, to propitiate the miners by significantly raising their
standard of living. He may be concerned that to do so would
create a bad precedent. As a consequence, more trouble from
the miners in this traditional area of worker unrest is likely
//Turkey wants to buy old tanks and combat air-
craft from its NATO allies and to produce more spare parts in
order to offset the deterioration of its military equipment.
Over the Zong term, however, Turkey will have to depend on US
grant aid and credits to modernize its weapons and equipment.
The delay by the US in approving the Defense Cooperation Agree-
ment and a shortage of foreign exchange needed to purchase arms
have handicapped the modernization plan. The Turks raised the
issue of the US delay at a recent NATO meeting in order to
underscore the seriousness of their predicament and the poten-
tial impact on NATO's military capability if Turkey's materiel
readiness does not improve.//
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At a NATO Defense Review Committee meeting
earlier this month, Turkey specifically asked for older F-104
combat aircraft and M-48 tanks being phased out by other NATO
The F-104s presumably would replace some of Turkey's
countries
.
old F-100s and F-102s most affected by a shortage of spare parts
and inadequate maintenance. Some estimates indicate that the air
force has had to ground more than half its frontline combat air-
craft, seriously curtailing training for wartime missions. West
Germany recently turned over two F-104s to Turkey.//
/The army reportedly is seeking to buy indus-
trial equipment--primarily metal-working and metal-cutting
machinery--to manufacture spare parts.
Some older industrial equipment is avail-
able for the army's use because of a current slowdown in the
industrial sector, but this equipment probably would not sig-
nificantly alleviate the spare parts shortage.
THAILAND: Amnesty Decree
Thai Prime Minister Kriangsak Chamanan has per-
suaded the military National Policy Council to grant amnesty
to several officers imprisoned for their part in the abortive
coup attempt in March. He is also advocating amnesty for at
least some of the students jailed when bloody rioting at Tham-
masat University ended parliamentary government in October 1976.
The amnesty decree for the officers will be issued on
the King's birthday, 5 December, a traditional occasion for
pardoning convicts. The government is planning an elaborate
celebration this year, and Kriangsak clearly is trying to use
the occasion to create an atmosphere of national reconciliation
and reunification.
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//Amnesty for the students is facing stronger oppo-
sition in the military council. Although public pressure for
their release has been building since the announcement of in-
tended amnesty for the coup group, the government wants to de-
fer action in their case until the trial now under way is con-
cluded.//
//The military leadership nevertheless appears to
be leaning toward the eventual pardon of at least those students
who were involved only in the campus rioting. The six students
charged with lese majesty--the mock hanging of the Crown Prince--
if convicted can be pardoned only at the King's personal dis-
cretion.//
The annual meeting of Warsaw Pact defense ministers
is likely to continue through tomorrow in Budapest.
Warsaw Pact defense ministers have met at least once
a year since 1969; last year's conference was held in Sofia
during December.
Soviet Defense Minister Ustinov is to visit Hungarian
and Soviet military units in Hungary before returning to the
USSR.
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//Saudi A
bi
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c
ra
a has agreed to fund Chad's pur-
hase of some French milit
ary equipment,
France reported
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the
ly promised equipment during Chadian Supreme Military CouncilrChairman
Malloum's visit to Paris last month. A French general is now in
Chad to review Chad's military needs.//
The French have agreed to provide Chad with two heli-
copters, four transport aircraft, and equipment for a new Chad-
ian Army mobile unit of battalion size. According to the French
Ambassador to Chad, Paris hopes the US will find ways to furnish
vehicles for the planned mobile unit.
The Saudis have been reluctant to have Chad ap-
pzoacn t em directly for the possible transfer of US military
equipment or for financing Chadian purchases of US arms, prob-
ably because Saudi Arabia does not want to be publicly identi-
fied as supporting Chad's predominantly non-Muslim government,
which is combating . na-,
s
urgency supported by Libya.
*') cvi
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The Israeli Government, the national labor union, and
t e manu acturers' association have agreed on a new wage package;
the agreement removes a major obstacle to the success of Prime
Minister Begins new economic policy. In pushing through the
agreement, the government clearly took advantage both of the
current upbeat mood of the country following the visit of Egyp-
tian President Sadat and the poor worker response this month to
labor union calls for strikes.
The package includes a supplementary cost-of-living
adjustment in January and a bonus to offset 70 percent of the
inflation that occurs in the last quarter of 1977. Despite
some rank-and-file unhappiness, the agreement should hold and
thus ease fears that inflationary wage demands would cancel
out government efforts to hold down personal consumption while
dropping restrictions on foreign exchange, cutting subsidies,
and removing other controls on market forces.
ith extra money in their pockets at the beginning
of the year, workers may be less inclined to push hard at the
general wage negotiations scheduled for the private sector in
January and for public employees in April.
One US citizen was killed and another wounded in a
terrorist attack. yesterday on an Indonesian natural gas field
in North Sumatra. The terrorists, apparently members of the
National Liberation Front for. Ache, avoided firing on Indone-
sians and a Korean working in the same field. The front is a
local rebel group, which has been operating in the region for
years and which last summer made extortion demands on a US oil
company that were not met.
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::=Soviet Premier Kosygin will represent the USSR in
Helsinki for the celebration of the 60th anniversary of Finnish
independence on 5 and 6 December. Such high-level recognition
will add luster to President Kekkonen's virtually uncontested
campaign for reelection in mid-January. At the same time, it
will give Kosygin a share of the limelight usually occupied by
President Brezhnev.
ver the years, Kosygin has developed a personal re-
lationship with Kekkonen, making him an appropriate Soviet rep-
resentative for this occasion. This will be Kosygin's second
visit to Finland this year. In March, he attended the inaugura-
tion of the Loviisa nuclear power plant, which was built with
Soviet technical assistance. Before that he had not been to
Finland since 1968.
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