NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010126-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 15, 2006
• Sequence Number: 126
• Publication Date: December 29, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Thursday 29 December 1977 CG NIDC 77/301C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0
AW AW Aff Aliff AW Aliff Aliff Aliff
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010126-4
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010126-4
 Approved For Rel
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, 29 December 1977
25X1
T e NID Ca e is for e purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
ISRAEL:
Begin's Peace Proposals
Page 1
CUBA: Reaction to US Criticism
Page 2
CHILE:
Opposition to Pinochet
Page 3
POLAND:
Stark Food Situation
Page 4
FRANCE - WEST AFRICA: Fighting
Page 5
EC: Denmark Assumes Presidency
Page 6
BRIEFS
Page 8
Turkey
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ISRAEL: Begin's Peace Proposals
Israeli Prime Minister Begin's strong defense of his
peace proposals before the Knesset yesterday was an effort both
to blunt domestic criticism and to buttress his negotiating po-
sition. Begin took an especially tough Zine on the West Bank.
He insisted that his proposal for local self-rule offered the
"only possible way" to resolve conflicting claims to the area
and warned that no agreement would be possible if this problem
remains unsettled.
and warning President Sadat that Egypt would need to show greater
flexibility on the Palestinian question. Indeed, Begin maintained
that he had responded adequately to Sadat's peace initiative and
that this is borne out by the support his proposals have gained
from US Government leaders and the US Jewish community.
By raising the possibility of failure, Begin seemed
to be both defending the need for Israel to make concessions
negotiations.
By characterizing his West Bank proposal as an interim
solution that is subject to review, Begin may well have been
reflecting a belief that the difficult problem of determining
the ultimate status of the area can be sidestepped in the current
Begin insisted that he has done his part and that it
is now Egypt's move. He is aware that Sadat is still counting on
the US to put pressure on Israel to be more forthcoming. Begin
clearly tried yesterday to discourage the Egyptians from be-
lieving Israel would buckle to external pressure, or that such
pressure would even materialize.
Begin's speech was also aimed at political supporters
who have denounced his peace proposals as too concessionary. He
also sought to reassure those who fear he may be planning even
more extensive concessions. The sharpest attacks on his proposals
so far have come from Begin's supporters on the extreme right--
the religious Gush Emunim zealots and hardliners in the Likud
bloc associated with the annexationist Land of Israel Movement.
The hawkish Yediot Aharonot, Israel's largest daily newspaper
and a long-time ally of Begin's, recently accused the Prime
Minister of "going to his own.Munich."
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For the most part, however, Begin retains strong po-
litical and public support for his peace efforts, as was demon-
strated by the Knesset's vote of 64 to 8 yesterday in favor of
his proposals. There were 40 abstentions on the vote, most of
them coming from the Labor Party.
Despite sharp attacks from Labor Party hawks, includ-
ing former Prime Minister Meir, who are worried about the future
status of Labor-affiliated settlements in the occupied terri-
tories, Labor Party leader Shimon Peres soft-pedaled his criticism
of Begin's proposals. In response to Begin's speech yesterday, in
fact, Peres offered qualified support for the government's peace
policy and praised the Prime Minister for his ability to revise 25X1
long-held assumptions and make difficult decisions.
The Cuban Government's criticism of recent US
declarations on Cuban military involvement in Africa is becoming
increasingly strident. Havana remains interested in an improved
relationship with the US, but it maintains its longstanding
position that Cuba's relations with other nations are not
negotiable.
President Castro's speech of 24 December before the
closing session of Cuba's National Assembly contained the
strongest rejection so far of US statements on Cuban activities
in Africa. The Cuban leader reaffirmed his interest in continu-
ing to normalize relations with the US, but he pointedly warned
that US insistence on a Cuban disengagement from Africa will
only increase hostility between the two countries.
Havana's rhetoric on this issue has steadily escalated
since mid-November. At first, the Cubans protested only in dip-
lomatic channels in order to emphasize their interest in norm-
alizing relations with the US. Then, in early December, Castro
told several US reporters teat Cuba would not negotiate the
withdrawal of its troops from Africa in order to achieve better
relations with the US. Castro refrained in this interview from
criticizing US policy and he reiterated Cuba's desire for im-
proved ties. He probably selected the National Assembly forum
for his latest statements in order to emphasize his unyielding
position.
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 would allow three former political prisoners--including a US
citizen and a dual national--to emigrate to the US and that it
would release one other US citizen in the near future.
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At the same time, the Cuban Government has attempted
to demonstrate its continued interest in better relations with
the US. Castro and the Cuban media have not yet criticized Pres-
ident Carter directly, and Cuba recently made a conciliatory
gesture regarding political prisoners. Following the visit of
two US congressmen earlier this month, Havana announced that it
Cuba's economic requirements are the primary motiva-
tion or normalizing relations. In Castro's eyes, however, these
t
needs are secondary to his search for influence in the Third
World.
Cuba's "internationalist" activities represent an
effort to break down its isolation. Cuba is also seeking to
enlist allies in sufficient numbers to exert political or eco-
nomic influence on the US on Cuba's behalf. Finally, by achiev-
ing a position of leadership in the Third World, Castro is at-
tempting to increase his flexibility in dealings with the USSR.
(Castro believes that appearing to submit to US pres
sure would seriously undermine his claim to a leadership, role
among the nonaligned nations.
CHILE: Opposition to Pinochet
/Two members of Chile's four-man military
junta--Air Force Commander General Leigh and Navy Commander
Admiral Merino strongly oppose President Pinochet's decision
to hold a referendum on 4 January. According to the US Embassy,
the two officers believe the results will be regarded as a vote
of confidence in the President, and that this will enable him
to achieve more power at their expense and perhaps even to
dissolve the junta.//
J
occasions, but heretofore they have tried to avoid an open
break. General Leigh has tried to portray himself as a moderate
on human rights issues, but both he and Merino have backed the
suppression of dissidents.//
T e two
'unta members have clashed with Pinochet over policy on other
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//We expect Pinochet to obtain the endorse-
ment he seeks from Chilean voters in the referendum. We have
no evidence that opposition to him among some government and
business elements is widespread or that the loyalty of army
and police forces has eroded. Any effort to unseat Pinochet
would fail without such support.//
//Pinochet's appointment of a new comptrol-25X1
ler general yesterday, shortly after the incumbent ruled the
referendum illegal, was clearly designed to head off efforts
to postpone or scrap plans for the balloting.
POLAND: Stark Food Situation
Food supplies in Poland may be lower now than during
the holiday period last year, according to the US Embassy in
and the mood of Poles standing in lines is increasingly
Warsaw
,
surly. Shortages will undoubtedly become more acute and consumer
grievances will continue.
Although increased food supplies began to appear in
Warsaw and other cities two weeks before Christmas, they were
apparently insufficient to reduce the lines substantially. In
some stores, the only meat available was sausage--the staple of
the average person's meat diet. Prized hams were for the most
part held back for a select few. There were, however, increased
supplies of coffee and citrus fruits on the shelves.
For months, meat has been unusually scarce in Poland,
coffee practically unavailable, and citrus fruits available only
sporadically. Despite sizable imports of animal feeds and the
regime's efforts to encourage farmers to produce more meat,
meat production is not likely to increase in the next 12-18
months. Even under favorable weather conditions, meat produc-
tion by 1980 probably will only slightly exceed the record 1975
level.
Government blunders in agriculture are in large part
responsible for the current meat shortages. Many private farmers--
who produce about 80 percent of Poland's meat--have become de-
pendent on imported feeds to sustain their livestock herds be-
cause of Poland's poor harvests. The government, however, has
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not matched the higher prices of imported feeds with increases
of livestock procurement prices. Facing a profit squeeze, many
farmers cut back on their herds beginning in 1975, and this has
curtailed livestock output in 1975-77.
The government could have avoided the worst of the
meat problem if it had let meat prices, frozen at unrealistic-
ally low 1966 levels, rise gradually over the years. But the
regime procrastinated because it feared an adverse consumer re-
action. If Warsaw now decides to increase meat prices, it will
have to do so gradually in order to avoid a repetition of the
June 1976 unrest that forced the government to rescind an an-
nounced average 69-percent price hike. Gradual increases of meat
prices will not have much effect on demand, and consumers will
remain dissatisfied for some time.
Warsaw's attempts to satisfy consumer demand by im-
porting large amounts of feed grains and soy bean meal as well
as some meat have added to the already heavy strains on Poland's
hard-currency balance of payments. The country probably will
also need continued sizable grain imports at least through 1980.
Because it fears dangerous flareups of popular discontent, the
government would most likely cut other hard-currency imports
m orts.
before sacrificing necessary grain imports./---
FRANCE - WEST AFRICA: Fighting
//France has confirmed that French-piloted
Jaguar combat aircraft are participating in the fighting against
PoZisario Front insurgents in Mauritania; Paris has denied PoZi-
sario claims that two of the Jaguars have been shot down. Fight-
ing in Mauritania has apparently slackened this week, but neigh-
boring Senegal where the French planes are based is taking steps
to increase its.security against possible Polisario raids.//
//French Foreign Minister Louis de Guiringaud
waited until the eight French hostages released by the Poli-
sario Front were safely back in France last Friday before an-
nouncing that the French have been involved in the fighting.
France has used the Polisario capture of French citizens and
the threat of additional seizures as justification for in-
creased French military activity in Mauritania.//
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//There have been no Polisario attacks re-
ported in the past few days; the front probably is reassessing
its tactics in the light of French involvement in combat opera-
tions. Polisario spokesmen say their forces have shot down two
French Jaguar fighter-bombers over Mauritania this month. 25X1
//Morocco has made some minor troop rede-
ployments, but there are no indications that it plans to aug-
ment the 5,500 troops it now has in Mauritania and Western
Sahara.//
//Dakar is becoming more concerned that the
Saharan dispute may spill over into Senegal.
the use of Senegal for French air opera-
tions into Mauritania may encourage the Polisario Front to
mount reprisal attacks.//
I Senegalese
and Mauritanian military and civilian officials have held sev-
eral joint meetings to coordinate their strategies against the
Polisario. As a result, Senegal is moving to strengthen its
forces along the border with Mauritania, to conduct more fre-
quent patrols, and to improve military communications.
EC: Denmark Assumes Presidency
//Denmark's turn to Lead the EC Council of Min-
isters begins 1 January. The six-month term does not allow for
more than slight shifts in tone or emphasis; nonetheless, the
Danes will seek maximum impact, emphasizing the international
role of the EC presidency as well as their own priorities.//
//Increasing the influence of the small West Euro-
pean nations in world forums has been a goal of Danish Prime
Minister Jorgensen for some years. He has been particularly con-
cerned that the EC--not just the large West European powers--be
present at international economic summit conferences. Denmakl-
will press hard for such a conference with a strong EC role dur-
ing the Danish tenure.//
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I /Denmark will also press for expansionary Commu-
nity economic policies in the hope that they might generate in-
creased Danish exports to the larger and stronger EC members,
thereby boosting the Danish economy. The Danes also favor wider
membership in the European joint float to promote exchange-rate
stability and to further monetary union.//
k will urge Community financing of energy
//Denmar
projects as an important means to economic revival. Although
Denmark does not now have nuclear power plants, it is interested
in supplanting imported fossil fuels, which supply 99 percent of
Danish energy consumption, and will urge adoption of policies on
uranium supply and nuclear waste disposal.//
en wants to see the EC move toward more
I//Jorgens
cooperation with the other Nordic nations, as well as with Aus-
tria and Switzerland, which are economically, politically, and
socially close to the Nine but which for a variety of reasons
choose not to join the EC. He, like other EC leaders, will re-
main apprehensive about the EC shift to the south but will not
oppose membership for Spain, Portugal, and Greece.//
//eopenhagen iid5 %i -L -- ~, b.ut
f the Community's Common Agxi.cultural polic
structuring o
the Danes will probably not press this complex issue.//
//Negotiations for the renewal of the EC aid and
preferential trade venture--the Lome Convention--will begin dur-
ing Denmark's tenure. Copenhagen would like to see most aid
from Community members to developing countries handled under EC
auspices and will push for better planning and coordination.
Denmark will press for more industrial cooperation ventures
with the developing countries as well.//
/Denmark will also use its prominent position to
speak for Greenland, which is scheduled to receive home rule
next year. Greenland benefits from EC association, but it is
fearful that adoption of an EC fisheries policy without modifi-
cation will threaten its largest source of income. Denmark will
urge the EC to make special rules for the Greenland fishing
fishing will not force Greenland to
zone so that dependence on
loosen its ties with the EC.
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Turkey
The Turkish National Assembly voted Tuesda
t
l
y
o p
ace
a censure motion on its agenda, and a vote of confidence could
take place on Saturday. Assembly Speaker Karakas has called for
debate of the motion to begin today.
arties in the governing coalition have protested that
the speaker did not wait the constitutionally required two full
days between inscription on the agenda and debate. The coalition
members will probably try other delaying tactics. 25X1
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