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December 20, 2016
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May 16, 2006
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January 18, 1978
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0 0 AW AIAV AAW AdW AAW AAW Aar AJV AJV Aq -- Approved Ft(q0WVse 2 007103108: TO: NAME AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 1 2 3 4 ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPAR E REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOM MENDATION COMMENT FILE RETUR N CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE (Security Classification) X1 0 Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: Wednesday 18 January 1978 CG NIDC 78/014C w NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions 0 0 w 0 0 0 0 0 Top Secret 25X1 State Dept. review completed (Security Classification Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030500 1002 3 DP79T00975A03050001002o2p Secret ?19 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010028-2 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010028-2 Approved For Rele The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing 25X1 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday, 18 January 1978. senior US officials. PHILIPPINES: Elections Scheduled PORTUGAL: Possible Troop Reductions TURKEY: Ecevit Government Approved FRANCE: Alleged Electoral Fraud USSR: Meat Shortages Persist NIGERIA: Executive Presidency NAMIBIA: Position on Elections NICARAGUA: Effects of Chamorro's Death BRIEFS: France TTCCD - ATr~r~-h Knrca I I Palestinians Ghana Argentina-Chile Approved For Relea Page Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010028-2 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010028-2 Approved For Re PHILIPPINES: Elections Scheduled Philippine President Marcos expects that the elec- tion of an interim legislative assembly, which he has sched- uled for 2 April, will provide his regime with a capstone of political legitimacy, Approved For P,,elease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A040500010028-2 Approved For Relea The move is another cautious step toward "normaliz- ing" the political process--a politically astute effort to appear responsive to the public's concern for a return to rep- resentative government. Marcos also hopes that by setting a political campaign in motion now, he will be able to mitigate pressures on human rights questions. His most pressing problem will be the d nee to devise campaign rules and an election format that will allow opposi- tion political groups to participate, while at the same time ensuring that his supporters retain control over the newly elected national assembly. Marcos in any event will retain the power to issue presidential decrees overriding the assembly. I the President M;L a ine members to run for a legislative seat, even those who have never run for office before. Some reports suggest that he will publicly support them in their campaign but at the last minute will quietly pull the rug out from under several of them. This would enable Marcos both to reorganize his cabinet and to demonstrate the "freedom" with which the election was conducted.// Marcos may also decide to hold the election on a re- gional basis rather than in smaller electoral districts, where opponents from pre-martial law days still retain pockets of considerable strength. He might allow some relatively weak antiregime spokesmen to be elected. The political opposition remains fragmented at the national level, however, and even leading figures like former President Macapagal have all but lost- i- hei r fol 1 . PORTUGAL: Possible Troop Reductions //Portugal may be considering disbanding its elite airborne unit because the Air Force lacks funds and modern equipment, 25X1 The move would reflect increasing dissatisfaction in t e arme forces with the level of military aid provided thus far by the NATO aZZies. It may also be part of an effort to press NATO members to act more quickly on Lisbon's request for military equipment.// 25X1 Approved For R Iease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975 30500010028-2 Approved For Rel /Officially a part of the Air Force, the airborne unit has had uneven relations with other units in the service, which see the paratroop unit as an expensive problem-child com- peting for limited Air Force funds. During a recent joint exer- cise, some paratroop officers reportedly were disturbed by what they saw as discriminatory treatment by regular Air Force com- manders.// I /In recent months, Air Force spokesmen have said that unless assistance is forthcoming they will have to take determined steps to keep their key forces operational, includ- ing seeking aid outside the alliance. The Portuguese may use a visit to Israel by an Air Force delegation, scheduled for later this month, as part of their campaign to put pressure on their 25X1 allies. The delegation is ostensibly making the trip only to observe Israeli units and equipment and possibly to discuss aspects of the two countries' military relations. TURKEY: Ecevit Government Approved //Prime Minister Ecevit won a vote of confidence yesterday in the Turkish National Assembly. His first priority appears to be resuming negotiations on Cyprus by offering new initiatives. He also hopes to meet with Greek Prime Minister Caramanlis, both to discuss bilateral issues and to press for more direct Greek involvement in the Cyprus negotiations.// Ecevit's informal coalition held firm yesterday, poll- ing 229 votes, three more than a majority. The opposition, led by ex-Prime Minister Demirel, mustered 218 ballots against the new government's program. Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A03p500010028-2 Approved //Ecevit plans to be his own foreign minister and has apparently won support from his coalition for his for- eign policy. His program calls for maintaining good relations with all countries and makes a point of the need for cooperation with Turkey's neighbors, particularly Greece and Cyprus. His initiatives on the Cyprus problem are likely to strike a re- sponsive chord at home; Turkish politicians believe that some kind of movement on this issue is essential if Turkey is to solve other international difficulties.// //The new Prime minister may have somewhat less flexibility in dealing with domestic policy. Although there is recognition within his coalition of the need to implement aus- terity measures and eliminate political violence, the methods for meeting these needs remain vague, and Ecevit is certain to hear many different opinions from his colleagues.// I I FRANCE: Alleged Electoral Fraud In the first major scandal of the French election campaign, the Socialist and Communist Parties have charged that the governing coalition is manipulating the votes of newly enfranchised French citizens abroad to its own advantage in electoral districts where the races are close. The governing coalition has accused the opposition of doing the same thing but has offered no proof. Should the ruling parties win a narrow victory in March by virtue of such tactics--coming on top of a more general and longstanding gerrymandering of elec- toral districts--the Left's frustration and bitterness are likely to become acute. A new law, passed last June by an indifferent and half-empty French National Assembly, provides that French voters living overseas can register to vote by proxy in any metropolitan district of more than 30,000 inhabitants, provided the number of such registrations is not more than 2 percent of the total in that district. Before passage of the law, voting requirements were so restrictive that scarcely 15 percent of the 700,000 to Approve Approved For Relea 850,000 eligible overseas voters were able to vote. The proxies are turned in to overseas consulates and embassies and sent by diplomatic pouch to the voting district. I IPoliticians were alerted when 1,200 expatriate French citizens living in the Ivory Coast registered to vote in the same constituency of the southern town of Montpellier, a dis- trict in which the race appears very close and in which the ex- patriate vote will be crucial. Suspicion increased when 35 French citizens living in Brazil opted to vote in an obscure Paris sub- urban constituency, French citizens in Austria chose the 11th district of Paris, and a satirical weekly published a telegram from the French Ambassador in Gabon announcing the dispatch to Paris of 1,650 blank proxies--presumably to be distributed wher- ever the governing coalition is most in need. Inquiries have been launched in Gabon, Ivory Coast. Brazil, and Austria, and a court in Montpellier is looking into the case there. In some municipalities, leftist officials have rejected overseas registrations, leading to charges and counter- charges. The government admits that there have been irregular- ities in the Gabon case, but otherwise has defended its posi- tion. The opposition says it has considerable evidence of fraud that it will make available to the courts. It can be ex- pected to make the most of this as a campaign issue and also to contest final election results in some districts in an effort to force a new ballot. The overseas vote, if judiciously distributed in con- tests that are decided by a comparatively small number of votes, could be crucial to the defeat or victory of quite a few deputies and might even affect the overall outcome of the election. There are 27 electoral districts in which victory was won in 1973 by less than 500 votes. The Socialist-leaning weekly Le NouveZ Observateur has asserted that a shortage of 30,000 votes in the wrong places cost the governing majority some 26 deputy seats in 1973 and that the majority is determined to rectify that situation by "dosing" certain districts. The Socialists maintain that seven out of 10 overseas voters would vote for the governing coali- tion, a percentage that explains the government's zeal--not Approved For Releasel2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79TOO975AO301500010028-2 Approved F illegal in itself--in trying to get out the expatriate vote. 25X1 USSR: Meat Shortages Persist 25X1 A recent edition of Pravda published a letter from a chemica.-~ worker in Ryazan who complained of being able to buy only fatty pork in local stores. He offered several reasons for this situation--rising incomes, fixed state retail prices, and the poor 1975 grain harvest. 25X1 One of the letter-writer's proposed solutions was to encourage expanded output by private farms in suburban as well as rural areas. Because of restrictive official policies in re- cent years, meat output by private farms has leveled off, de- clining as a share of the total output from 35 percent in 1970 25X1 to 30 percent in 1976. The Pravda editors asked readers to of- fer their own ideas on this "very important problem." 25X1 Approved 4or Release 2007/03/08: CIA-RDP79T Approved For Release Soviet industrial meat output during the first 11 months of last year was about 10 percent greater than during the comparable period in 1976 but still below output in 1974 and 1975. Taking into consideration the rising population and incomes as well as the generally greater expectations of the Soviet people, the average consumer probably considers the meat situation to be no better now than at the beginning of the de- cade. The Pravda series probably is an attempt by the leader- 25X1 ship to reassure the public that it recognizes the problem and to publicize the fact that it is not a local, easily correc able phenomenon. NIGERIA: Executive Presidency Nigeria's civilian constituent assembly, which is reviewing a draft constitution in preparation for a return to civilian government next year, approved a key constitutional provision last week for a strong executive presidency. The speedy action clears the way for the assembly to tackle other controversial issues. Delegates from the Muslim north, which dominated Ni- geria's first civilian government, were nearly evenly divided on the question of an executive presidency. Those opposed lobbied strongly for a return to the parliamentary system, under which the more populous north had important political advantages. The military government strongly backs the execu- tive presidency as a way of dealing more effectively with Ni- gerian regional, tribal, and religious differences that con- tributed to the collapse of civilian rule in 1966. Some Muslim delegates are also grumbling over proce- dural aspects of the assembly debate that they say favor the south and put them at a disadvantage. As the assembly proceeds, there may well be additional public complaints by delegates that could ultimately mar the acceptability of a new constitu- tion. The assembly also lowered the age limit for presiden- tial candidates to 35, which could pave the way for young mem- bers of the military regime--such as Brigadier Yar' Adua, the number-two man and a northern--to run for the office. Head of Approved For ReleaseI2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500910028-2 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T0097fA030500010028-2 State Obasanjo, a southerner with no professed civilian politi- cal ambitions, has publicly said that no members of the regime will play a part in a future civilian government, but he may be unable to enforce the restriction. a serious problem. The next test for Muslim interests is the emotional issue of the draft's provision for a federal Islamic court of appeals. Non-Muslim southerners and minority tribesmen in the north say this proposal will give undue privileges to Muslims. Other major issues to be addressed have no clear-cut regional connotations;.they include calls for stronger guaran- tees of press freedom and for socialist political and economic guidelines. is to be resumed this October, when the assembly is scheduled to complete its review of the constitution. The assembly, which includes numerous aspiring politicians, appears to be rushing its work in the hope that the government will lift the ban ahead of time to permit political parties to be organized in prepara- tion for the series of elections that are supposed to lead to the installation of a civilian government in October 1979. Muslim unhappiness with the constitution could become Formal political activity, now banned by the government, //A senior official in South Africa's Foreign Ministry told Ambassador Bowdler this week that Prime Minister Vorster probably will unilaterally announce the date for a pre- independence election, for a constituent assembly in Namibia at the end of the month if the five-power Western contact group fails to work out a settlement by then.// //The contact group had hoped to bring represen- tatives of South Africa and the South-West Africa Peoples Organ- ization to New York this month for another round of talks on a pre-independence program for Namibia, but so far it has not been able to find a date acceptable to both sides.// I //According to the Ambassador, Vorster may have promised white Namibian political leaders or his cabinet that Approved F Approved For ReleaO he would announce the election date during a no-confidence de- bate scheduled to begin in parliament on 30 January. He will probably postpone a final decision on an announcement until he meets with his cabinet next Tuesday.// //The decision will be influenced by a number of -- Whether South Africa and SWAPO can agree on dates for further talks. -- The intensity of proposed Western demarches to persuade South Africa not to announce an election date. -- How the two parties react if the contact group makes public its own proposals for a peaceful settlement in Namibia.// //If Vorster carries out his threat to announce an election date, SWAPO will probably refuse any further partici- pation in the negotiating effort. 25X1 NICARAGUA: Effects of Chamorro's Death //order has returned to Managua, but the Zong- term effects of the assassination of Nicaraguan newspaper editor Pedro Joaquin Chamorro will depend on who is finally charged with hiring the killers and how much of the charge the public believes. President Somoza probably has been weakened, but he remains in full control of the government.// I reacting to skepticism about the government's willingness to investigate thoroughly, Somoza said in a news conference on Monday that he would hire international investigators to help solve the crime if necessary.// //Although Chamorro's own political following was quite small, his murder appears to have prompted larger op- position groups to pull back from plans for a "dialogue" with the government. The assassination, however, has caused business- men--until now largely on the political sidelines--and others to renew their call for talks on the causes of violence and the Approved For Relea4e 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030A00010028-2 Approved Fqr Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00P75A030500010028-2 means of democratizing the political system. With this addi- tional support, the opposition is not likely to pass up its best opportunity yet to press Somoza for concessions.// //Leftist guerrillas, who have gained notoriety in recent months by staging a series of attacks within Nicaragua, may well keep up their pressure in hopes of further weakening the Somoza government. We believe that Somoza, facing a somewhat greater potential for political strife, will be receptive to re- newed efforts to get the dialogue back on track. F 125X1 Excerp ts f ro m a public opinion poll p ubl ish ed yester- day show the F rench l eft holding fairly steady at 51 percent. and the governi ng c oa lition dropping 3 points to 44 percent, the lowest scor e it h as polled in about a year . Among the leftist parties, the Socialists and Left Radicals had 28 percent, the Communists 21, and the extreme left 2. On the center-right, the Gaullists won 21 points, the Giscardians 16, and the Radicals and Centrists 7. About 5 per- cent of the vote went to the ecologists and other splinter groups. As usual, undecided voters, about 20 percent of the electorate, were not considered in the poll. Further analysis of the poll must await more complete data, but the apparent slump in the governing coalition's for- tunes may mean that the months of bickering, coupled with the electorate's strong desire for change, are taking their toll. Divisions within the left are even more profound, of course, but this has apparently not seriously discouraged voters who want new faces and see the left as the only means of obtainin social and economic change. USSR - North Korea Moscow radio announced on Monday that a party and gov- ernment delegation headed by Dinmukhamed Kunayev had departed Approved Approved For Releo Moscow for an "official, friendly" visit to North Korea. Kunayev is the party boss in Kazakhstan and is a member of the Supreme Soviet Presidium and the Politburo. Relations between Moscow and Pyongyang have been very cool in recent years. Kunayev will be the first Politburo mem- ber to visit the North Korean capital since Deputy Premier Mazurov traveled there in 1971. Palestinian West Bank leaders on Monday issued a statement that strongly reiterates their opposition to Israeli Prime Minister Begin's offer of limited self-rule for the occu- pied territories. The declaration affirms that the Palestine Liberation Organization is the only body authorized to represent the Palestinian people during the negotiating process. It also calls for self-determination, the establishment of an indepen- dent Palestinian state, and total Israeli withdrawal. The statement underscores the West Bank Palestinians' goal of ending Israel's military occupation and returning all the occupied territories to Arab control. The declaration was signed by the mayors of all major West Bank communities, in- cluding well-known moderates such as Ilyas Frayj of Bethlehem. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Releasel2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030PO0010028-2 Approved Fair Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T0p975A030500010028-2 PLO officials will cite the statement as further evidence of the need for a clear PLO role in determining the future of the occupied territories. F_ I University students clashed with police in Accra. last Friday on the sixth anniversary of the coup that brought Gen- eral Acheampong to power. Students also demonstrated in two other cities. The students were protesting Acheampong's misman- agement of the economy and his campaign to become president of an elected, non-party "union" government he has promised by July 1979. I IFurther student demonstrations are likely. The stu- dents have been angered by the forceful police action in Accra and by efforts of thugs belonging to a pro-Acheampong leftist group to hunt down protesters. Last spring, student unrest followed by strikes by professional groups led to Acheampong's promise to restore con- stitutional rule--a move that eased dissent and divided his op- ponents. The US Embassy in Accra does not believe the students are now strong enough to threaten the regime or Acheampong's prospects for obtaining popular endorsement of his concept of union government in a national referendum scheduled for March. Argentina-Chile I I Argentine President Videla has agreed to meet with Chilean President Pinochet tomorrow in the western Argentine city of Mendoza to explore ways to end the impasse in efforts to resolve the Beagle Channel dispute. Both sides seem disposed to accept a cooling-off period, but there are formidable road- blocks to early resolution of the problem. The Argentines evidently are responding to a Chilean overture delivered by a special envoy of Pinochet's over the weekend. Despite effort to resume mediation, Argentina appar- ently intends to reject an arbitration award in Chile's favor by the International Court of Justice. Unless the two sides can find some room for accommodation, relations are y to deteriorate further. Approved 25X1 0 0 Apr ved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010028-2 Top secret (Security Classification) 10 0 0 . 0 . 0 '0 1 0 0 i ; 0 Top Secret (Se VMifiggtpOjjease 2007/03/08 CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010028-2 0 AW Adw Aw Aw Aw Aw Aw Aw