NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030500010038-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: January 24, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

,MW 1AW 1AW AMF IMW IMW AdW AAFF
(Security Classification)
1
1
FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE
0 0
0 25X1 0
0 0
0 Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities: 0
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Tuesday 24 January 1978 CG NIDC 78/019C
0
.0 0
0i I 25X1 0
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
State Dept. review completed 25X1
(S
it
ecur
y
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0305
000100
0 illW AW AW Aliff AW AW AW
Appl yg l Release 2007/03/07
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPAR
E REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOM
MENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
: CIA-RDP7 TkA A03050 f 8 fcret 1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010038-1
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010038-1
 Approved For Rele
25X1
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 24 January 1978
1-me "m can.Le j_s tor tne put-pose Of n
senior US o icials.
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Begin's Knesset Speech
CHILE-ARGENTINA: Beagle Channel Talks
Page
Page
1
2
USSR-BERLIN: Unauthorized Crossing
Page
5
UNITED KINGDOM: Liberal Party Pact
Page
5
BELGIUM:
Becoming a Federal State
Page
6
AUSTRALIA:
Bilateral Relations
Page
8
Page
9
Greece-Turkey
Approved For Re]
 ISRAEL: Begin's Knesset Speech
25X1
25X1
25X1
Israeli Prime Minister Begin in his Knesset
speech yesterday Zeft open the possibility of an early resump-
tion of the military talks in Cairo. Begin hinged Israeli ap-
proval of such a resumption on President Sadat putting an end
to the "antisemitic" campaign in the Egyptian press. Egyptian
Foreign Minister Kamil dismissed the charges of antisemitism,
but suggested that both sides could "calmly redefine their
stands" and may resume negotiations.
Begin rehashed the course of negotiations leading up
to last week's abrupt suspension of the political talks appar-
ently in order to get on the record that he had not misled or
deceived Sadat on the Israeli negotiating position. Begin then
enumerated several antisemitic comments made recently in the
Egyptian press, which he charged were intended to humilitate the
Israelis. More in puzzlement than anger, Begin quoted President
Sadat's recent characterization of the Israeli peace plan as
"I want you to sleep so that I can murder you."
I I Begin said these statements re-created the psychologi-
cal barriers Sadat had sought to destroy. Begin maintained that
the Egyptian general staff had reneged on Sadat's promise to
the Israelis to demilitarize the Sinai east of the Mitla and
Giddi passes.
I I Begin also defended his position in an interview pub-
lished yesterday in the West German magazine Der Spiegel. Begin
said that Sadat had deceived himself in believing that the Is-
raelis would yield to his demands and, when they did not, de-
cided to produce a climate of tension to dramatize the impasse
and bring pressure to bear on Israel. Begin said the ploy would
not work.
The debate in the Knesset ended with an endorsement
or egin s statement by a vote of 59 to 9; 19 members in the
120-seat chamber, including three from parties in the governing
coalition, formally abstained.
Approved For
Most of the Israeli press has approved of the govern-
ment's handling of the situation, including the postponement
of the military talks to allow a "cooling-off period." Some
doves in the National Religious Party, however, have criticized
Approved For
 Approved For
the decision and at least some moderate press commentators have
criticized both Sadat and Begin for indulging in too much public
rhetoric. The Jerusalem Post, for example, took issue with the
cabinet's harsh criticism of Sadat's speech on Saturday, noting
that it was anticlimactic and that efforts should be made to
create a new, calmer atmosphere for negotiations.
25X1 The US Embassy in Tel Aviv reported yesterday that as
e sraelis reflectuneasily on the events of the past week and
on what lies ahead, two themes are beginning to be heard:
-- Settlements in the Rafah area should not be permitted
to block progress toward peace.
-- Begin's leadership is being questioned by more moderate
elements within the coalition.
On the latter point, the Embassy noted that the "murmurs of
discontent" are coming from the more flexible Democratic Move-
ment for Change - Liberal grouping that is unhappy with Begin's
hard-line stance on the settlements issue. The Embassy cautioned,
however, that it sees no political threat to Begin nor anything
approaching a revolt with the governing coalition..
I //After consulting Begin, Defense Minister Wein-
man announcea st night that he is postponing his trip to the
US that was planned for later this week. He said the Israeli
Government must first decide whether to continue the military
committee meetings with the Egyptians in Cairo. Weizman had
earlier informed US Ambassador Lewis of the decision, and of
the time for making it public. The Ambassador drew the inference
that a public announcement would advance the prospects for re-
convening the military talks and help balance any negative
Egyptian reaction to Begin's speech in the Knesset.//
CHILE-ARGENTINA: Beagle Channel Talks
//Talks held by the Argentine President VideZa
and z can President Pinochet last week apparently accomplished
the groundwork for bilateral negotiations on the Beagle Channel
dispute. A second meeting is scheduled for this week in Chile,
possibly in Punta Arenas.//
25X1
25X1 t
Approved For 4elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975 030500010038-1 f
 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009754030500010038-1 25X1
//The leaders made no real progress toward an
actual boundary settlement, but the two sides reportedly out-
lined procedures for renewed--and probably prolonged--discus-
sions.//
Santiago is clearly interested in finding a diplomatic
solution to avoid any development that would tie up its military
forces in the south. Chile remains wary of its well-armed north-
ern neighbor, Peru, although we have seen no sign of increased
tensions between the two nations.
As long as Chilean concessions seem imminent, the Ar-
gentine Government probably will cooperate in lowering tensions
in the area. Videla, however, must contend with officers in the
military who advocate a hard-line stance, especially junta mem-
ber and navy commander Admiral Massera. The Navy chief has been
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975PI030500010038-1
 Approved For P,,elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T0097
stirring up nationalist sentiments over ownership of the terri-
torial waters and most Navy officers, including the leadership
in the Foreign Ministry, appear to agree with his position.
Approved Fora Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975f4030500010038-1
 Approved For 4elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0 500010038-1 25X1
USSR-BERLIN: Unauthorized Crossing
A Soviet official in East Berlin has denied that a
es ern complaint regarding an unauthorized crossing into West
Berlin by East German soldiers falls within the competency of
the Soviet Embassy. His suggestion that the matter be taken up
with East German authorities was a clear departure from the
principle of Four Power responsibility for Berlin.
The Soviet diplomat made his statement last Friday
wen a official delivered an Allied protest concerning an
incident in which six armed East German soldiers had entered a
remote part of the American sector of West Berlin two days ear-
lier.
I I The US Mission in Berlin considers the original inci-
dent trivial but sees the Soviet response as having serious im-
plications for future diplomacy concerning Berlin. The Soviet 25X1
refusal to accept the Allied protest may mark the start of a
new attempt to compel the Western Allies to deal directly with
East German over Berlin-related issues.
UNITED KINGDOM: Liberal Party Pact
//British Prime Minister Callaghan received a
boost Saturday when a special assembly of the Liberal Party
voted overwhelmingly to continue its pact with the Labor gov-
ernment. The decision strengthens the government's position
regarding major legislation and preparations for a general
election. The vote is a victory for Liberal Party leader Steel.//
//The resolution reaffirms broad-based Liberal
supporf for the government until the budget debate this spring
and gives Steel considerable leeway to continue the pact after
Approved For Re
0500010038-1
 Approved For 4elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975 030500010038-1 25X1
that time. The results reassert both Steel's leadership and
the predominance of the members of Parliament within the Lib-
eral Party.//
//The assembly's action is welcome news for
a ag en though withdrawal of Liberal support would not
necessarily have led to a collapse of the government. The
Prime Minister still must stitch together majorities on an
issue by issue basis during the second half of the current
Parliamentary session.//
//In addition to the budget, the government will
on the final versions of the Scottish and Welsh
devolution bills, the measure providing for direct elections
to the European Parliament, more wage settlements, defense ap-
propriations, and possible initiatives on Northern Ireland.//
1//Callaghan can not be certain of support from
and, because ot a restive a
e t wing, the Prime minis er may need Conservative support
on the European Parliament elections bill and the defense bud-
get.//
//Liberal support will increase Callaghan's op-
tions in determining the most advantageous time to schedule an
election. The most likely time is this fall or early next year.
F__ I
BELGIUM: Becoming A Federal State
I //Belgium took a significant step closer to be-
coming a federal state recently when an official review com-
mittee cleared the way for presenting to parliament a bill im-
plementing the "Egmont Agreement" of last May. The agreement,
forged by the four governing coalition parties, was designed
to establish a federation with a national government, two cuZ-
turaZ communities, and three regional governments: Flanders,
Wallonia, and Brussels-. It responded to the widespread belief
among Belgians that creation of a federal state is the only way
to resolve longstanding and emotional domestic antagonisms.//
25X1 r
Approved For Fielease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T0097541030500010038-1
 Approved For Rel
//The problems spring from Belgium's division into
two mayor linguistic groups: the Dutch-speaking Flemings in the
north and the French-speaking Walloons in the south. Intercom-
munal tensions over many years have gradually led to the coun-
try's delineation into separate linguistic areas and the split-
ting of government ministries equally between the two groups,
as well as other measures to provide equality.//
The salient features of the revised agreement are:
-- Communities: Each community executive will consist of
four members, named by the King with the concurrence
of the appropriate community council. Funding for the
Flemish and Francophone community councils will par-
allel increases in regional funding.
-- Subregions: Twenty-five subregions, which will replace
the present provinces, will take on the present func-
tions of the intercommunal administrations and such
other duties as may be delegated. Each will have its
own council and executive.
-- Germanophones: The eastern cantons where German-speak-
ers live will consitute a subregion linked to a Ger-
manophone cultural council that will regulate cultural
affairs by decree.
25X1
-- Brussels area: Francophones living in the six communes
adjacent to the city will have rights in perpetuity
to claim additional benefits by linking themselves to
one of Brussels' 19 bilingual communes. Those in the
other peripheral communes can claim these rights only
until 1998, but their children can elect to attend
French-speaking schools in any of the other six com-
munes. Flemish speakers in all of these communes and
in Brussels will be assured a Flemish-speaking commu-
nity committee with a fixed minimum level of funding.
The leaders of. the four parties in the ruling coali-
tion say that there were no winners or losers in the last round
of negotiations; their statement confirms that there were few
substantive changes from the earlier text. In particular, the
Francophones have preserved all the concessions they won at
Egmont.
Approved For Rel
 Approved For
//A single legal text of the agreement will now
be prepared, reviewed, and formally approved by the committee.
It must then be accepted by two successive parliaments. The
coalition parties have more than enough votes to pass the bill 25X1
in the present parliament and, if the coalition holds together
through the next election, are likely to have enough votes in
the next parliament to secure final passage.//I I
//The Australian Government statement last week ac-
cepting the Indonesian takeover of the former Portuguese colony
of East Timor will remove an irritant in bilateral relations.
The action has been generally accepted by the Australian public.//
//Australian Foreign Minister Peacock said on Fri-
day that government's decision was in recognition of the
fact of Indonesian control. He reiterated his government's dis-
approval of Indonesian use of force in taking the colony, but
said it was unrealistic to continue to ignore the reality of
Timor's incorporation into Indonesia. The statement was dic-
tated by the need for arrangements to reunite family members
who had fled to Australia following the Indonesian invasion of
Timor in 1975.//
//The government of Prime Minister Fraser has long
recognized its lack of leverage on Jakarta on the Timor issue,
but had been dissuaded from formal acceptance of the Indonesian
takeover by limited but vocal public disapproval of the Indone-
sian military action.//
//The announcement predictably has drawn attacks
from the small number of Australian political activists who
have made Timor a cause. Most Australians, however, accept the
government's move as a practical step in maintainin good rela-
tions with Indonesia.
Approved For
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010038-1
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010038-1
 Approved For
Greece-Turkey
Greek Prime Minister Caramanlis yesterday gave a quali-
ie yes to Turkish Prime Minister Ecevit's public call for a
meeting to discuss the Cyprus and the Aegean issues. Caraman-
lis noted that such a meeting "may" take place in the spring.
I lEcevit earlier promised to present a territorial pro-
posa a would advance the chances for a Cyprus settlement.
UN Secretary General Waldheim, under whose auspices the talks
on Cyprus have been held, has agreed to call for their resump-
tion in March if Ecevit's proposals warrant, and both Greek
Cypriots and the Turks have agreed to this procedure. Talks on
the Aegean are scheduled to resume next month.
Approved Fo4 Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009l5A030500010038-1
 Approved For Re
I I In seeking a summit, Ecevit wants to achieve some quick
o consolidate his position and also to improve the
chances of obtaining military and economic aid. Caramanlis'
wait-and-see policy arises from his desire to avoid giving
Ecevit the image of peacemaker--thus reducing international
pressure on Turkey--until he is sure that Ecevit's approach to
runriis and the Aegean provide the basis for compromise solutions.
I I
Approved For 9
 ,AV
0 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010038-1
Top Secret
(Security Classification) 0
1
0 Top Secret 0
(Security,OMgjq}O r Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30500010038-1 4
0 Amr Aw Aw Aw Aw Aw Aw Aw AlIff Alm