NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030500010045-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 45
• Publication Date: January 28, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

ApprpnAFtaG Release 2007/03/06
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Saturday 28 January 1978 CG NIDC 78/023C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Dail Cable for Saturday, 28 January 1978.
The NID Cable is tor the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
SYRIA-USSR: Military Equipment
Page 1
CHINA-EC: Talks on Trade Agreement
Page 4
SOUTH AFRICA: Apartheid Policies
SOUTH AFRICA: Buthelezi Address
FRANCE: Unemployment Figures
Page 4
Page 6
Page 6
JAPAN: Opposition Party Views
Page 8
A
P
C
B
RGENTINA-CHILE: Tensions Increase
OLAND: Culture Minister Removed
ZECHOSLOVAKIA: Rumors about Husak
RIEFS:
Page 8
Page 10
Page 11
Page 12
USSR
Tunisia
Austria-USSR
Persian Gulf
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SYRIA-USSR: Military Equipment
//A large amount of equipment apparently is
involved under e S rian-Soviet arms agreement reached Last
month
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Syrian President Asad probably welcomes the appear-
ance o Soviet support for his opposition to Egypt's peace
initiative. For some time, Syria has been seeking more advanced
Soviet weapons to help offset the growing gap in modern weaponry
between Syria and Israel.
Syrian requests have included the latest Soviet tanks,
self-propelled artillery, and surface-to-air missile systems.
The Syrians also have been trying to acquire large amounts of
equipment to outfit new formations and upgrade existing ones
to replace worn-out equipment and replenish wartime stockpiles
depleted by the intervention in Lebanon.
We are not yet able to verify reports that some of
the-'equipment under the December agreement has begun to arrive
in Syria. Deliveries may be imminent, however.
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CHINA-EC: Talks on Trade Agreement
China and the European Community open high-level
talks Monday in Brussels on their first bilateral trade agree-
ment.
Peking expects EC countries ultimately to become a
major source of industrial imports and technology and sees the
agreement as a symbol of its desire to encourage a united
Western Europe resistant to Soviet pressure. The Community,
for its part, seeks recognition by Communist countries and has
offered such a trade agreement to them all.
Working-level groups have already hammered out most
of the details of the five-year, nonpreferential pact, and con-
ferees expect that this week's negotiations may be conclusive.
The agreement aims mainly at expanding trade and grants China
most-favored-nation status.
I IThree points remain unsettled. The EC wants China to
agree o minimum prices on certain exports to the Community so
that Chinese products will not disrupt local markets. It also
wants a clause providing for consultations when trade problems
arise. China, concerned about its trade deficit with the EC,
wants a clause providing for the balanced expansion of trade.
Sino-EC trade is much more important to Peking than
to the Nine. While the EC is China's second largest trading
partner after Japan, China accounts for less than 1 percent of
EC trade. The EC is an important supplier of machinery and
equipment, metals, and fertilizer to China. In return, China
provides a broad range of foodstuffs, crude materials, textiles,
and consumer goods. 25X1
SOUTH AFRICA: Apartheid Policies
I I The South African Government will step up its time-
tab/-s or implementing the policy of separate development of
the races, according to Connie Mulder, the newly appointed Min-
ister of Bantu Administration and Development. In a statement
that sets the tone for the new parliamentary session that began
in Cape Town yesterday, Mulder dashed any expectations that the
government might veer from the path of apartheid, which he
labeled "plural democracy. "
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Mulder's statement, coupled with Prime Minister
Vorster s choice of a new cabinet, indicates that Vorster is
determined to ignore pressure from the outside world as much
as possible and concentrate on implementing the "independent"
homelands policy, under which South Africa's more than 18 mil-
lion blacks are to find their political fulfillment in scattered
areas economically dependent on Pretoria.
I I Mulder, a pragmatic man who wants obectthe heinext
xtce
Prime Minister, promised to work toward peaceful
in South Africa and toward maintaining a dialogue with black
leaders. To date the only dialogue the government has tolerated
has been with blacks who have acquiesed to the homelands con-
cept; most others have been banned or jailed.
id he would concentrate on improving
Mulder also sa
the living standards for all blacks, a difficult feat under
South Africa's depressed economic conditions.
Aside from Mulder's appointment, there is little
change in the composition of the new cabinet. Vorster retained
Jimmy Kruger as Minister of Justice; he had been widely con-
demned for his callous handling of the Steve Biko affair late
last year.
I IThere had been talk of a power struggle between the
libera and rightwing factions of the National Party over the
important Bantu administration post, but Vorster's choice of
the conservative Mulder indicates that the Prime Minister has
no intention of risking a party split while he moves ahead with
the homelands policy.
Vorster has acknowledged the severity of the turmoil
among young blacks by making two concessions: he has created a
separate ministry for black education and ordered
"Bantu" dropped from the government lexicon. Though
ministry is a substantial concession on the part of the govern-
on student for a thataof theca-
ment, it falls far
tion system administered whites.
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SOUTH AFRICA: Buthelezi Address
Chief Gatsha Buthelezi
the le
d
th
,
a
er of
e Zulu tribe
in South Africa and a determined holdout against the govern-
ment policy of independent homelands, will address a mass
rally in Soweto tomorrow. The government permit for the meet-
ing stipulates that Buthelezi can talk only about the coming
elections in his homeland of Kwa-Zulu, but the chief intends
to discuss overall black unity.
If Buthelezi goes through with his
romi
e
i
p
,
s
t will
be the second time this month that the leader of South Africa's
largest tribal group has defied the government. Two weeks ago,
in spite of a legal prohibition on multiracial political coop-
eration, Buthelezi formed an alliance with "colored" and Asian
leaders in the hope of pressing the government into a meaning-
ful dialogue about alternatives to apartheid.
His appearance in Soweto tomorrow will be Buth
l
i'
e
ez
s
first in the black township since 1976 when, in his bid to be
recognized as a national black leader, he criticized Prime Min-
ister Vorster's policies before a crowd of more than 16,000.
He is the only black leader willing to stand up to the govern-
ment and may strike a responsive chord of unity among urban
black Africans. Many of the younger Sowetans, however, regard
all homelands personalities as irrelevant to their aspirations,
and tomorrow Buthelezi may face hostility from militant stu-
dents if he does not say enough and government repressi if he
says too much.
FRANCE: Umemployment Figures
An abrupt reversal of the trend in unemployment fig-
ures Zn ranee has provoked opposition charges that the govern-
ment is manipulating the data for political purposes. The four-
month cumulative decline from the record 1.22 million unemployed
in August is officially reported to be 190,000--almost 16 per-
cent. Most of the decline, however, is due to the outdated sea-
sonal adjustment procedure being used.
French Government economists are aware of the prob-
lem but are reluctant to alter their methodology because--
ironically--they are afraid that a change now would lead to
further charges of political manipulation.
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We believe that unemployment reached a peak of 1.16
million in September and has declined by 87,000 since then.
This reduction can be explained by hiring incentives, which
expired on 31 December, and a successful youth employment
drive.
25X1 The factors that pushed unemployment down during the
fall are now essentially played out. With economic activity
still sluggish, official unemployment figures for January and
February are likely to show embarrassing increases. Nevertheless,
the February figure-which will be released between the first
and second rounds of the parliamentary election--should be well
below the August peak.
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JAPAN: Opposition Party Views
The recent public statement by the chairman
of Japan's Clean Government Party endorsing the role of the
Self-Defense Forces and cautioning against altering the US-
Japan security relationship reflects the gradual trend toward
more realistic public treatment of defense issues by the mod-
erate opposition parties.
The chairman's remarks, made at the party convention
this month, do not modify the party's official stand in favor
of replacing the security treaty with a peace and friendship
pact. Even so, Clean Government officials have privately said
that they hope eventually to move toward a more moderate line
on the security issue.
Like the Democratic Socialists, who already publicly
back the security treaty, Clean Government politicians: probably
calculate that their shift will enhance their prospects as a
coalition partner should the ruling Liberal Democrats lose
their majority in the Diet. Indeed, Clean Government leaders
are now at work trying to cement a firmer relationship with
the Democratic Socialists in the Diet.
Even those opposition leaders who continue to
focus on the security issue recognize that growing public ac-
ceptance of Japan's limited defense effort and its security
relationship with the US has limited the political mileage
that can be made by attacking defense policy.
//Agreement on the contentious Beagle Channel
dispute is z ely to be more difficult as a result of the frus-
tration in Santiago following Argentina's announcement Wednes-
day rejecting the international arbitration ruling.//
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Contributing to the Chileans' pessimism is their
awarenessIof the political problems facing Argentine President
Videla within his own junta. Fellow junta member Admiral
Massera appears determined to be less conciliatory on the dis-
pute than Videla. Massera apparently hopes that a conspicuous
display of nationalism on his part will help his long-running
campaign to discredit and perhaps replace the President.
/A second round of presidential talks was to be
held in Chile this week but was postponed until sometime in
February at President Pinochet's request. Pinochet clearly did
not want to renew discussions immediately following Argentina's
rejection, thereby giving the impression that he was caving in
to pressure from Buenos Aires. The delay was also probably
meant as a gesture of coolness toward Argentina.//
//In a terse rebuttal of Argentina's unilateral
repudiation of the arbitral award, the Chilean Foreign Ministry
declared it "contrary to international law" and existing bi-
lateral arbitration agreements. Chile's Ambassador has been
withdrawn from Buenos Aires.//
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POLAND: Culture Minister Removed
I I The removal of the relatively liberal Jozef Tejchma
as Poland's Minister of Culture will generate considerable con-
cern and unease among intellectuals that the regime intends to
tighten its control of cultural affairs.
I I Prime Minister Jaroszewicz announced the change at
a session of the parliament on Thursday. Tejchma will remain
as one of the nine Deputy Premiers and as a member of the gov-
ernment presidium, which acts as an inner cabinet. He also re-
tains his membership on the party's Politburo.
During his four-year tenure as Culture Mi
i
n
ster,
Tejchma earned a reputation for being one of the more intelli-
gent and openminded members of the leadership. He encouraged
diversity and creativity and shielded artists from conservative
pressures. His dismissal will be seen as particularly threaten-
ing by those artists and media people who have been working
from within the system to expand freedom of expression.
Tejchma's liberal leanings had caused rumors that he
was in trouble for at least a year. His weakened position be-
came particularly evident last spring when party conservatives
expressed consternation at the widespread showing of several
films critical of life in Poland. At that time Tejchma was said
to be in almost daily conflict with the party's hard-line prop-
aganda chief, Jerzy Lukaszewicz. Tejchma's deputy for the film
industry was subsequently replaced by a man who is exerting
much more strict ideological control over filmmaking.
The failure of Jaroszewicz to nominate a successor
in icates that the conservatives were strong enough to unseat
Tejchma, but that they lack the power to get their own candi-
date accepted. Nevertheless, Tejchma's dismissal, along with
the removal of Kazimierz Barcikowski as Minister of Agricul-
ture in December--both are on the Politburo--suggests that the
liberal wing in the top leadership has been somewhat weakened.
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I IThere is considerable speculation in Czechoslovakia
regarding the political standing of party and state Leader
Gustav Husak. One rumor is that, with Soviet backing, he
thwarted a challenge to his Leadership by a regional party
Leader in December. Another is that the 65-year-old Husak--
troubled by some health problems and grief over the death of
his wife Last fall in a helicopter accident--may soon step
down from one of his two posts.
The rumors may have been fed by the fact that the
regional party official who allegedly mounted the challenge
to Husak lost his job in mid-December. Also, Husak has looked
fatigued during some public appearances over the last several
months. As disparate as the two rumors may seem, the "resigna-
tion" story could also have grown out of the "challenge" rumor.
Husak's initial response to the challenge, according to one
version, was to resign as party leader; only Soviet insistence
brought him back.
We cannot dismiss the possibility that Husak, under
maining on top as the only guarantee of preserving Slovak gains
over the Czechs since 1968. Giving up power would seem out of
character for a man who was a political exile for 17 years and
struggled long and hard to reach his present position.
There is a possibility that the alleged challenge to
Husak and the subsequent rumors about his resigning are the
work of hardline opponents of Husak's moderate policies.
the impact of physical or emotional strain, has lost his taste
for politics and is considering resigning. But it seems more
likely that, as a dedicated Slovak nationalist, he sees his re-
In his most recent appearances, Husak has seemed
affable. and relaxed. During talks with visiting Western offi-
cials, he has seemed to be looking forward to his scheduled
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After consulting with Moscow
the So
i
t
,
v
e
representa-
tive to the Conference of the Committee on Disarmament in Ge-
neva told the US representative on Wednesday that the Soviets
wish to propose bilateral talks on "neutron weapons." He added
an offer to end Moscow's insistence that such weapons be in-
cluded in a radiological weapons convention currently being
negotiated by the two powers in the context of the Geneva fo-
rum. President Brezhnev proposed mutual renunciation of the
"neutron bomb" in December, and in the Soviet view this should
clearly be the objective of the suggested talks.
//Also on Wednesday, the Soviet Ambassador to
West German
a
y
sserted that if the US adopted "neutron" weapons,
the Soviets would follow suit--a threat earlier made by other
Soviet officials. The Ambassador added a new element by stating
that while the US weapons might be tactical in nature, Soviet
weapons might be strategic.//
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 Tunisia
to deal with the situation.
o
cedente g
Tunis, the strike was ineffective and most of the violence was
instigated by students and unemployed youth. The students ap-
parently took advantage of the situation to underscore their
opposition to Prime Minister Nouira's government and press
their radical political demands.
The government asserts that about 40 people died in
the isorders, which the army quelled, although press stories
report a higher toll. Nouira has promised to punish the trouble-
makers and has expressed confidence in the government's ability
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Tunisia was relatively calm yesterday after the wide-
,
spread civil disorders on Thursday that accompanied the unpre-
ur eneral strike. According to the US Embassy in
d 24-h
r,abor's headquarters in Tunis has been occupied by
the Army and Achour is under house arrest.
Austria-USSR
Austrian Chancellor Bruno Kreisky is scheduled to
visit Moscow on 6-8 February for what has been termed a "work-
ing visit." Kreisky hopes to discuss Austria's trade deficit
with the USSR, which amounts to approximately $200 million an-
nually. Premier Kosygin is likely to receive the Austrian dele-
gation; Kreisky has not asked to see President Brezhnev, even
though a meeting between the two leaders would be customary
during such a visit. The Austrians have decided to leave the
scheduling of any such meetin to the Soviets because of the
state of Brezhnev's health.
Persian Gulf
authorities of Bahrain, Qatar, and the
t
ary
The mone
United Arab Emirates recently suspended trading on local for-
eign exchange markets, reportedly in preparation for a 5 to 7
percent revaluation of their currencies against theeUSodollar.
The revaluation, expected today, is apparently in
the decline of the dollar against the West German mark and
Japanese yen and a recent small revaluation of the Saudi Ara-
bian riyal.
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Authorities in Bahrain and the UAE may take this
opportunity to sever their currencies' link to the dollar and
peg them instead to the International Monetary Fund's Special
Drawing Rights, whose value is determined by a basket of some
16 major currencies. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran already
maintain a link between their currencies and the SDR.
Market sources speculate that the UAE currenc
m
y
ay
be devalued slightly against those of Qatar and Bahrain. These
Persian Gulf neighbors have been striving in recent years to
coordinate their monetary policies and exchange rates with t e
ultimate aim of creating a "Gulf dinar."
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