NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030500010070-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 17, 2006
• Sequence Number: 70
• Publication Date: February 13, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday 13 February1978 CG NIDC 78 036C
1
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
~' Top Secret 25X1
State Dept
review completed
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(Security Classification)
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National Intelli ence Daily Cable for Monday, 13 February 1978
The NID Cable is for the purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
SOMALIA: State of Emergency
IRAN-INDIA-PAKISTAN; Shah's Visits
PORTUGAL: Leftist Opposition
CANADA: Ottawa Economic Summit
NEW ZEALAND - JAPAN: Economic
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SOMALIA: State Of Emergency
Somalia's declaration o f a state o f emergency on
Satur ay is primarily c~ format recognition of conditions that
-have prevailed since the Somalis seat troops into Ethiopia in
July. The major new element is a request for volunteers and an
order for aZZ former servicemen to report for mobilization. The
call-up will have at best a minor impact on Somalia's military
capabilities because of the country's deficiencies in equipment
and Zogis ti es .
The declaration of a state o~ emergency is designed
o rama ize the government's concern about the situation in
the Ogaden and to prepare the Somali people for further sacri-
fices. The government also used the opportunity to end the fic-
tion that only guerrillas are involved in the fighting and an-
nounced that Somalia was sanding regular units to the Ogaden.
The bulk of the Somali armed forces is already participating. in
the fighting.
The declaration also outlines a three-point peace
settling the conflict:
-- A cease-fire.
-- The withdrawal of foreign troops from the region and
procedures for verification.
-- A "solution" to the problem of the Ogadeni Somalis' de-
mand for self-determination and independence from Ethi-
opia.
The substance of the proposal offers nothing that
would appeal to Ethiopia, Cuba, or the USSR as a basis for a
settlement, but the Somalis willingness to make a peace offer
indicates some interest in keeping mediation efforts alive.
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The Somali Government threatened to break relations
with the USSR but deferred action, perhaps in recognition of
the fact that Somalia may have to call on the Soviets to play a
role in arranging an eventual settlement with Ethiopia.
IRAN-INDIA-PAKISTAN: Shah's Visits
//The Shah of Iran was impressed by Indian
Prime Minister Desai during theiz~ meeting in New Delhi Zast
weekend. From aZ Z indications, the re Zationship o f the leaders
of the tzuo major powers in the region got off to a good start.
The Shah told the US Ambassador to Iran that he had foz~nd the
political situation in India mz.ceh improved, re fZecting his
generaZZz~ favorable reaction to the performance of the Desai
government during its first Uear in power.//
//With respect to specific issues, the Shah
found ready In ian acceptance of the concept of an Asi~{.n Com-
mon Market. The scheme is intended to strengthen regional eco-
nomic cooperation, a familiar theme in Iranian foreign policy
but one on which little headway has been made. The Indians
favor greater regional economic cooperation in princip7.e, but
they view the Shah's proposal as ill-defined and premature.//
//The Shah was less satisfied with Ylis brief
stopover in Pakistan, where he was unable to dispel whet he
sees as Chief Martial Law Administrator Zia's obsession with
possible Indian-Iranian collusion against Pakistani interests.
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PORTUGAL: Leftist Opposition
Portuguese Prime Minster Soares' Socialist - Center
Democratic coalition won parliamentary approval yesterday for
its government program. The most serious problem for the neu~
government remains the Communists and the labor unions they con-
trol. Spokesmen from both groups reiterated their strong opposi-
t2on to Soares' coalition during debate on the government pro-
gram, ~hieh the Communists voted against. Without labor in tow,
it is doubtful that Soares' program can succeed regardless of
its merits.
Since the new government was installed on 2 February,
Portugal has been hit with a rash of strikes and threatened
strikes. Railroad workers., teachers, shipyard workers, and mem-
bers of several other unions have staged strikes this month,
and the merchant marine and commercial workers unions threaten
walkouts in coming weeks. Some unions are also pressing for
early wage increases and other benefits.
All of these maneuvers run counter to government poli-
cies of labor restraint and austerity, and expose the Social-
ists' weakness in blue-collar unions.
The Communists would probably like to demonstrate as
quickly as possible that the present government is ineffective.
They do not, however, seem inclined to resort to illegal tactics
or to risk an all-out confrontation with the government, which
could turn public opinion against them.
Last week, the country's largest labor federation
voted against a far-left proposal that a workers' "Day of Pro-
test" against the new government be turned into a nationwide
general strike. Workers' fears of losing their jobs, the wide-
spread concern about the faltering economy, and Communists
leaders' hopes of eventually forming an alliance with the So-
cialists were probably all factors behind the vote.
The Communists see little advantage in dramatic anti-
governmen actions, although they have not spared the rhetoric.
They are convinced that the government will eventually fall any-
way and that a leftist alliance of Communists and Socialists
will then be seen as the only alternative.
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At the same time, the Communists have felt i.t neces-
sary to ex their labor muscle enough to ward off goc*ernment at-
tempts to undermine their strength in the unions and t:o take
away property they obtained in the course of the 1974 revolu-
tion. It is doubtful that Soares will be able to attract the
Communists' cooperaton while attacking the bases of tr~eir
strength.
The Communists' position was enhanced considerably
by a Social Democratic decision to vote against the government
program. Social Democrats represent business and financial
interests that must be enlisted in the economic recovery ef-
fort. Lack of support from this quarter hurts not only Soares'
prestige, but also his abilit to take a strong stand against
the Communists.
CANADA: Ottawa Economic Summit
//Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is convening a
federal-provincial economic summit in Ottawa early this week.
The meeting, which is to be televised, is designed to increase
eon fidence in the Zagging Cana di an economy and to demonstrate
to the electorate that the Prime Minister is tackling the
problem; Trudeau is expected to call an election this near.
The thrust of the meeting will be toward Zong-term programs,
however, which would not effect the economy before the elec-
tion. //
//Opinion surveys show that concern over economic
matters ranks higher than concern over national unity,. Trudeau
would like to increase confidence by showing that the federal
and provincial governments are cooperating to find medium- to
long-term solutions to economic problems and are reacYting a
consensus on where the problems are and what the solutions
should be. He calls it "the beginning of a concerted ~ittempt
to restructure the Canadian economy in order to make it more
effective and efficient over the long term."//
//Both Trudeau and Finance Minister Chretien em-
phasize t at the conference will not address short-tee?m solu-
tions or add large amounts of new money, and they warn against
"excessive expectations" for quick fixes to the economy.//
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//As an aid in getting provincial cooperation,
Trudeau is offering something strongly desired by the provincial
leaders--more provincial say in how programs are implemented
and the possible transfer to the provinces of administrative
power over economic programs.//
//It is important to Trudeau's election prospects
that he demonstrate forward motion in addressing economic prob- 25X1
lems. It is the area in which he is most vulnerable to criti-
cism from opposition spokesmen.
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which Neva Zealand vi eras violations of its fishing regulations.
Nera Zealand is also trying to increase pressure on Japan to
make concessions on bilateral trade issues.//
//Nera ZeaZand~s seizure of a Japanese fishing
traraZer and its decision to auction off the trawler and its
300-ton catch is intended to underscore the seriousness raith
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//The Japanese vessel was seized three weeks ago
in an area closed to foreign fishing. The New Zealanders, who
had earlier briefed the ship's captain, saw the intrusion as
deliberate and decided to make an example of the case.//
//New Zealand no doubt hopes the stiff penalty
will prod Japan to accept larger imports of beef, dairy prod-
ucts, and timber from New Zealand. Agricultural exports are
the lifeblood of New Zealand's economy, and it has become in-
creasingly annoyed over Japan's refusal to discuss long-term
arrangements for greater purchases-.//
//New Zealand Prime Minister Muldoon has warned
that unless Japan makes some trade concession, the Japanese
will not be permitted to operate in New Zealand's 200-mile
economic zone after 1 April. Mi~l.doon calculates that Japan's
interest in fishing in the waters encompassed by the zone will
encourage it to be more responsive to New Zealand's trade needs,
but Tokyo is unlikely to respond to what it robabl sees as a
New Zealand attempt at intimidation. 25X1
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Top Secret
(Security Classification)
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