CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010008-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2007
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: March 4, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Saturday 4 March 1978 CG NIDC 78/052C
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, 4 March 1978.
25X1 The Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CHINA: Political Maneuvering
Page
Egypt-Cyprus
BRIEFS:
Romania
USSR - WEST GERMANY - EAST GERMANY
Italy
Senegal
Malaysia
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CHINA: Political Maneuvering
tivities this week commemorating the
h
e ac
//T
80th birthday of the Zate Premier Chou En-Zai appear related
to the rivalry between Premier Hua Kuo-feng and Vice Premier
Teng Hsiao-ping. The birthday, which is tomorrow, coincides
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with what is expected to be the closing day of the National
People's Congress, the legislature that is meeting to choose
a new government, including a premier. DIA does not believe
there is significant rivalry between the two Chinese leaders.//
//The commemorative activities seem designed
in part to establish a link between the revered Chou and the
leading figures at the congress--particularly the congress'
most visible personality, Hua Kuo-feng. An article praising
Chou for his ties to ordinary people appeared Wednesday in the
party newspaper beneath a picture of Hua attending a congress
meeting as an "ordinary delegate." It was Hua who is said to
have directed that Chou be remembered on his birthday rather
than on the anniversary of his death, as has been the case in
the past.//
This shift appears to have implications for Chou's
chosen successor, Teng Hsiao-ping. It serves to divert popular
attention from the link between Chou's death and Teng's subse-
quent political difficulties. On two previous occasions, activ-
ities commemorating Chou's death resulted in a show of popular
support for Teng and implicit criticism of those whom the Chi-
nese people believed were responsible for Teng's problems.
As he seeks to build his public image, it is in Hua's
interest to show that he, in addition to Teng, is following in
Chou En-lai's footsteps. This would give him a decided advantage
over Ten,g because he can make the claim, which Teng cannot,
that he is also the chosen heir of Mao Tse-tung. Hua, moreover,
undoubtedly is also interested in protecting those party offi-
cials with whom Teng seems unwilling to work. The new attention
to Chou's birthday rather than his death seems to serve both
purposes.
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1 media coverage of the congress has given
a
,
In gener
ence to Hua than to Teng. Hua has received
i
t
n
er prom
far grea
extensive laudatory coverage throughout the week, while Teng
finally received coverage in the party newspaper on Thursday in
his capacity as a delegate representing the armed forces at the
congress.
DIA does not believe that significant rivalry
//
currently exists between Hua Kuo-feng and Teng Hsiao-ping. It
is that agency's opinion that a division of responsibilities
and roles between the two leaders was worked out during last
year's Party plenary sessions. Moreover, it seems highly unlikely
that Peking would have elected to hold the Fifth National People's
Congress without first dispensing with such a critical matter
as the power relationship between these two key political fig-
ures.//
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USSR - WEST GERMANY - EAST GERMANY:
//Soviet spokesmen continue to express con-
//Other Soviet spokesmen in the past few weeks
tern about devebop ments in East Germany and complain that the
USSR is not fully informed about East - West German relations.
The Soviets, however, are reassuring Bonn that Moscow wants no
increase in tensions in Berlin and still favors a summit meet-
ing between President Brezhnev and Chancellor Schmidt.//
have complained that Moscow does not know the full details of
economic transactions between the two German states. A West
German official said last week that Soviet Ambassador Falin had
complained about not being fully informed about East - West Ger-
man relations and that "another Russian" had complained that
the Soviets were unable to monitor all financial transactions
between Bonn and East Berlin.//
Soviet suspicions about East - West German contacts
have been endemic since the two German states established for-
mal contacts. They apparently were aggravated late last year
by the well-publicized East German agreement to buy 10,000
Volkswagen Rabbits from the West, a deal that allegedly was
concluded without Soviet knowledge.
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The Soviets' uneasiness probably has not reached a
level t at could threaten their relationship with East German
party and state leader Honecker. In Moscow's view, there is no
one in sight in East Germany who would be'a better alternative
to Honecker.
//The USSR's policy toward Bonn remains un-
changed, and Moscow would like to extract some political ad-
vantage from the rescheduling of Brezhnev's trip.
The Soviet Ambassador to Romania has told US diplo-
mats that President Ceausescu will probably visit the USSR
this year. This is our first information on such a visit. It
would not be surprising, however, because Romania has custom-
arily tried to balance its relations with all the major powers.
Ceausescu will go to China later this month and to the US
early next.
The Soviets presumably are concerned about Romania's
rapidly improving relations with China, and Ceausescu may want
to reassure them on that score. He may also brief President
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Brezhnev on his talks scheduled for April with President Carter.
The Romanian President's last visit of any length to the USSR--
highlighted by an unprecedented side trip to Soviet Moldavia,
which was once part of Romania--opened a period of thaw in bi-
lateral relations which lasted until last summer.
Egypt-Cyprus
Egypt will try in absentia the two Palestinians being
held by Cyprus for killing Egyptian journalist Sibai, according
to Egyptian press reports. Cyprus' Attorney General, meanwhile,
has applied to the Supreme Court to begin trying the Palestinians
in Cyprus no later than 14 March.
President Sadat continues to press Cyprus to extradite
the men to Egypt, although his recent public attacks have fo-
cused on the Cypriot Government rather than on President
Kyprianou personally. Cypriot leaders have been noncommittal
about the ultimate fate of the terrorists. They seem to recog-
nize, however, that Cyprus must deal harshly with the two men,
probably by executing them or extraditing them to Egypt after
the trial, if Cyprus is to regain Egyptian friendship and sup-
port in its dispute with Turkey.
Sadat's government is under attack at home for its
handling of the Sibai assassination and the botched rescue
attempt. Egyptian leftists and others cite the affair as an
example of the government's incompetence.
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Italy
Italian fishermen have greatly exceeded the 1978
US quota for silver hake. Although the Italian catch is rela-
tively small--84 tons--it is more than twice the original US
estimate and more than four times the Italian quota of 20 tons.
Because of the excesses, the US has told Italy to halt all fish-
ing in US waters.
Italy's Ambassador to the US met with US authori-
last month and expressed surprise at the suspension. He
ti
es
requested that its implementation be delayed or that it be
limited to those ships guilty of overfishing. He said the
total ban on fishing would seriously hurt the fishing fleet
and affect Italy's economy.
Senegal
President Senghor won another five-year term last
Sunday in Sengal's first multiparty presidential and parlia-
mentary election. His centrist Socialist Party captured 82
percent of the vote, losing only 17 of 100 seats in the national
assembly to the rightwing Senegalese Democratic Party. The
Marxist-Leninist party failed to win a seat.
ear-old Senghor, who has been President since
The 71-
y
independence in 1960, is a major leader among moderate French-
speaking West. African states and has actively sought peaceful
solutions to African problems. For the past two years, he has
nurtured a three-party democratic system; by subjecting his
own party to political competition, Senghor hopes he can build
an organization strong enough to outlive his leadership and to
guide the transition to his eventual successor.
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Speculation is widespread that Sen hor i'll
w
g
resign
midway through his new term so that his constitutional successor,
43-year-old Prime Minister Abdou Diouf, can become established
as the ruling party's favorite candidate in the 1983 election.
Diouf, Prime Minister since 1970, lacks Senghor's charisma, and
his support--particularly in the Army--is questionable. Other
senior members of Senghor's party may challenge Diouf in the
l-.. a r--- . ,.
Malaysia
Malaysia has postponed indefinitely a visit b
For-
y
eign Minister Rithauddeen to Peking that had been tentatively
scheduled for April. The government may have decided on the
postponement because it is concerned over anti-Chinese senti-
ment in Malaysia and because it is annoyed with Peking's dual
policy of trying to improve state-to-state relations while
maintaining ties with the Communist Party of Malaysia.
The postponement may also be a sign that the ov r -
g n
ing National Front expects to hold an election this spring.
The government probably wants to avoid giving further ammuni-
tion to anti-Chinese Malay chauvinists by sending Rithauddeen
.I-.-. T-~ .-.,__, .- _-
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Top Secret 0
(Security Classification)
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