CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010090-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2007
• Sequence Number: 90
• Publication Date: April 21, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday 21 April 1978 CG NIDC 78/093C
review(s) completed.
Dept. review completed
0 DOJ Review Completed.
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0 Top Secret 0
(Security 25X1
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 Approved For Rel
ence Daily Cable for Friday, 21 April 1978.
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he ITID a e is tor tne p
senior otticials.
CHINA: Senkaku Islands Incident
NAMIBIA: Security Proclamation
NIGERIA: Domestic Problems
CHAD: French Reinforcements
Page
Page 4
Page 6
Page 7
CHINA: Patents and Trademarks
CHINA: New Grain Purchases
Page 9
Page 9
PAKISTAN: Opium Production
BELGIUM: Political Turmoil
BRIEFS:
Nicaragua
I--
Angola
Page 11
Page 12
Page 13
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CHINA: Senkaku Islands Incident
I Incursions by Chinese fishing vessels into
Japanese-c aimed waters around the disputed Senkaku Islands
have stirred a strong public reaction in Japan and raised ques-
tions about China's motives and tactics. The action has added
another roadblock to the chances for early progress on the
Sino-Japanese Peace and Friendship Treaty. Peking apparently
made the move in order to demonstrate both its claim to the
islands and its opposition to any Linkage of the Senkaku issue
with the treaty. Peking may also have hoped to influence Japa-
nese Legislation that would implement the Japanese - South
Korean continental shelf treaty; this treaty deals with oil
prospecting in other areas claimed by China.
The incursions began on 12 April when several Chinese
fishing boats--some armed--penetrated the 12-mile zone Japan
claims around the islands. For nearly a week thereafter, Chinese
vessels, at times numbering approximately 200, moved in and out
of the zone. The incursions stopped on Tuesday, but as of yes-
terday the fishing fleet was still 25 to 35 miles northwest of
the islands. This is the first such action since the Senkakus
were returned to Japanese jurisdiction by the US under the
Okinawa reversion in 1972.
The Chinese action probably was prompted by the well-
publicized efforts of antitreaty elements in Japan's ruling
Liberal Democratic Party to raise the Senkaku issue in order to
prevent resumption of formal negotiations. A public statement of
6 April by Yasuhiro Nakasone, a senior official of the Liberal
Democratic Party, that Japan and China should clarify their po-
sitions on the Senkakus before concluding the treaty is likely
to have particularly nettled Chinese officials.
According to Japanese news reports, the Chinese Am-
bassador in Tokyo linked the Senkaku incident to statements
made by "some Japanese" several weeks before the incursion. On
13 April Sun Ping-Hua, secretary general of the China-Japan
Friendship Association, reminded a group of Japanese politicians
who were visiting China that both sides had agreed in 1972 to
shelve the Senkaku issue during the period of normalization of
Sino-Japanese relations. He accused elements in Japan of using
the issue to prevent conclusion of the treaty.
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//The Chinese almost certainly had already con-
cluded, however, that there was little chance of early movement
on the treaty and that the risk of some further delay was a
small price to pay in order to make a strong demonstration of
their claim to the islands.
The incident has, in any event, undercut the pressure
trom pro reaty advocates in Tokyo on Fukuda, who is likely to
argue that Japan must now await an indication that Peking is
willing to return to the earlier agreement to shelve the prob-
lem.
China's action also has provided some propaganda
mileage for Moscow, which has pressed Tokyo not to sign the
treaty. Until now, China could play on Japanese nationalist
sentiment for the return to Japan of four small islands held
by the USSR since the end of World War II. Now Moscow is ex-
ploiting this same sentiment by accusing China of harboring
territorial aspirations against its neighbors, and the Soviet
press implicitly supports Japan's claim to the Senkakus.
I
NAMIBIA: Security Proclamation
The South African Administrator General for Namibia
has issued a proclamation empowering him to detain without
trial any Namibian whom he considers to be a danger to security.
The proclamation---probably drafted at the behest of South
African Prime Minister Vorster---appears designed to meet the
demands for tighter security that followed the assassination
of Herero Chief Kapuuo last month while avoiding an outright
ban on the South-West Africa People's Organization that might
scuttle settlement negotiations.
Since the killing of Kapuuo by unknown gunmen, his
associates in the Pretoria-backed Democratic Turnhalle Alli-
ance have demanded a crackdown on SWAPO's internal wing, which
has been openly proselytizing since the Administrator General
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 SWAPO leaders inside Namibia assert that the South
African police have arrested almost 100 of their followers
since Kapuuo's death. South African officials acknowledge that
smaller numbers are being held under the South African Terror-
ism Act, which permits the detention of suspected subversives
without trial for prolonged periods.
y
proclamation is intended to supersede the Terrorism Act. Ac-
cording to Botha, the Terrorism Act will soon be amended so
that it will no longer apply to Namibia.
South African Foreign Minister Botha told a Western
envo earlier this week that the Administrator General's latest
Several provisions in the latest proclamation appear
designed to show that the Administrator General is ruling out
some of the harsh treatment that detainees have experienced for
years in South Africa and Namibia. Each detainee is to be in-
formed "as far as possible" of the reason for his arrest, and
his family is to be told where he is being detained. Detainees
are to be visited by a physician at least every three days and
by a magistrate every two weeks.
25X1 The proclamation nevertheless reconfirms the denial
n interna-
i
t
f
or
ac
of due legal process that has long been a
tional opposition to South Africa's administration of Namibia.
Detainees can appeal to a special three-man review committee,
but its secret findings are not binding on the Administrator
General.
The limited reforms instituted by the Administrator
General since he took office last September suggest that he.
may, apply his latest proclamation more sparingly than the South
African police have used the Terrorism Act. Even so, by assuming
direct responsibility.for detentions, he is likely to bring in-
ternational discredit upon himself, thereby complicating efforts
to win the UN Security Council's acceptance of the Western tran-
sitional program. That program calls for the Administrator
General to wor~ with a s ecial representative of the UN Secre-
tary General.
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relaxed restraints on political activity. Although the leaders
of the internal wing have renounced violence, they have not
disavowed their affiliation with the foreign-based SWAPO guer-
rillas.
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A dispute in Nigeria's constituent assembly over the
draft constitution appears to have been temporarily defused,
but the basic issue remains unresolved. At the same time, there
has been an outbreak of student unrest rooted in educational
grievances.
I I Following an appeal by Head of State General Obasanjo,
norther n assemblymen have agreed to return to the assembly next
Monday but will press for reconsideration of their defeated pro-
posal for a federal Islamic court of appeals, according to a
Nigerian press report. Earlier in the week, the most influential
Muslim religious leader in the north made a radio appeal for
calm and continued stability, asserting that the assembly is
doing its best and that the rights of Muslims will be given
adequate attention.
The apparent end of the walkout will at least tempo-
rarily defuse the emotional court issue. Most non-Muslim south-
erners and minority tribesmen in the north--who oppose an Islamic
court as an undue privilege for Muslims--apparently regard the
matter as settled. Should northerners continue to push the is-
sue and the assembly prove unable to resolve the dispute, the
military government may press the assembly to compromise.
I If the court issue is not resolved to Muslim satis-
ac ion, widespread demonstrations may well be mounted. They
could touch off communal riots between Muslims and the southern
Christian minority that resides and works in the north. Such
disturbances could deal a sharp, if not a fatal, blow to the
military's plans to restore civilian government.
Students at seven major universities throughout Ni-
geria this week boycotted classes and held protest demonstra-
tions over increased room and board fees. The action was called
by radical student leaders who are demanding free education
and a reduction of Nigeria's 40-percennt inflation rate.
Violent clashes between police and students at several
universe ies resulted in the death of at least one student and
injuries to a number of others. Military troops were called in
to restore order at one northern university when police were
routed by students.
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The deaths and injuries are likely to spark more
violence by students, who refuse to discuss their grievances
with authorities. The students seem to be receiving little
sympathy from the rest of the populace, but they could keep
universities in turmoil for some time to come. 25X1
//France may be sending additional combat troops
to Chad to eZp the Chadian Army defend against attacks by
Libyan-b insurgents, accordin to unconfirmed French press
reports
//There is other evidence that France may be
planning o increase its military. involvement in the fighting.
A senior official in the West German Embassy in Ndjamena re-
ports that the French may be planning not only to defend
against attacks but also to destroy the primary rebel force
now threatening government positions in western Chad. The US
Defense Attache in Chad had reports that civilian aircraft at
Ndjamena airport have been moved and preparations made for the
arrival=of transport aircraft.//
//There are also reports that France is evacuating
rench citizens from a town in eastern Chad that may soon be
threatened by the rebels, and some of the reinforcements may be
intended to help with.the evacuation. The French currently
'have some 700 military personnel in Chad and a detachment of
fighter aircraft on standby in Ivory Coast.
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 nese participation in international agreements in this area
would facilitate the expansion of Chinese imports of modern
equipment and technology.
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China is apparently considering a major policy shift
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on the protection of patents, copyrights, and trademarks. Chi-
In recent discussions with a major Japanese firm,
Under that convention, patents held in one member country enjoy
legal protection in all member countries. China is not a member
of the convention and has recognized only those patents held by
citizens of China.
the Chinese apparently agreed to pay for patents and technology
transfers in accordance with the Paris Convention of 1883.
Until recently, China extended trademark protection
only on the basis of formal bilateral agreements and contractual
provisions. In early 1978, Chinese representatives informed US
businessmen that Peking might begin recognizing trademarks on
an informal, reciprocal basis. US trademarks, for example, would
be recognized since Chinese trademarks can be registered in the
I I The policy shift appears to be part of a Chinese ef-
tort to increase imports of high-technology plants and equipment.
Liberalization of China's policy toward foreign trademarks,
patents, and copyrights would do much to alleviate the concerns
of Western firms about the Chinese copying their industrial
technology and design. 25X1
The Chinese have purchased 1 million tons of US
w ea in the past
two weeks, bringing grain imports for T775-year to a minimum
of 5.8 million tons. Rumors of additional grain sates to China
continue to circulate in the market. AZZ of the grain is to
be delivered before the fall harvest. The Chinese had a poor
grain harvest Last year, and supplies are tight in some areas.
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causing delays. The US will be China's only potential source
of large additional amounts of wheat until October, when Canada
should be able to provide some additional amounts.//
//The new purchases will make up for lagging ship-
men s rom anada and Australia, where port congestion is
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We believe the Chinese may make some additional
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grain purchases to tide themselves over until fall and that sub-
stantial purchases of soybeans and soybean oil are possible.
//Prospects for additional grain purchases later
this year depend on the 1978 harvest. China's early crops ap-
pear to be doing well, but it is too early to tell what the
total harvest will be.//
I //In any case, the Chinese will probably purchase
more grain tor delivery in the last quarter of this year. They
will presumably turn to Canada, their primary supplier, for a 25X1
substantial portion of their requirements. Any further needs
would have to be supplied mainly by the US or Europe, because
Argentina' and Australia are likely to be able to supply
much more grain this year.
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of poppies are under cultivation in
between 400 and 600 tons of opium this year. Previously, we
had been told by Pakistani officials that production was on
the order of 200 tons a year.//
illicit opium producers, may pro uce
illicit opium this year than the estimated total for Last
year, according to a recent Drug Enforcement Agency survey.//
//The DEA has concluded that almost 100,000 acres
Pakistan that will yield
PAKISTAN: Opium Production
//Pakistan, considered to be among the Leading
d tzvo or three times more
I //The increase in the latest estimate results
both from more accurate information and from an actual boost
in production. Encouraged by rising prices--which have sky-
rocketed from about $35 per kilogram to over $200 per kilogram
in the past three years--farmers are planting more poppies and
are using commercial fertilizer to increase yields. The rise
in price reflects growing demand, stemming in part from the
establishment of laboratories producing heroin and morphine
for both domestic and foreign consumption.//
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//The Government's reluctance to crack down on
opium producers is traceable in part to the corruption of local
officials, but primarily reflects the government's belief that
action against the growers and the laboratories is not worth
the trouble. Such trouble could stir in d tribal resistance.
BELGIUM: Political Turmoil
I I Continued wrangling within Belgium's four-party co-
a itton is impeding government decisionmaking on economic and
defense matters and raising doubts about the viability of the
10-month-old government. Prime Minister Leo Tindemans will
seek a vote of confidence at the end of may, when he will an-
nounce measures to deal with the country's pressing economic
problems. Belgium's commitment to NATO remains strong, although
proposed cuts in military spending have stirred worries within
the alliance.
Directing an unwieldy coalition has affected
_in emans' health, and his prestige has suffered from his in-
effective leadership. By calling for a vote of confidence,
Tindemans may be trying to force the Socialists--the second
largest coalition partner--into cooperating and compromising
in the coming budget debates. If they remain intransigent,
Tindemans could then blame them for the government's poor
record.
Foreign Minister Simonet seems to be the prime mover
behind what Tindemans sees as a Socialist effort to derail gov-
ernment plans. Simonet's leadership position and his own po-
litical ambitions make him one of Tindemans' toughest rivals.
A budget crisis has been brewing for several months.
Revenue shortfalls, resulting in part from lower than projected
economic growth, have forced Tindemans to propose an across-
the-board 2-percent cut in planned 1978 spending. But the So-
cialists, concerned about the country's high unemployment
rate--one of the worst in the EC--continue to push for supple-
mentary payments for the unemployed and the creation of new
jobs.
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B i 1-ring within the coalition has also adversely
overnment's ability to make decisions on defense
d the s
t
ff
g
e
ec
a
matters. Socialist ministers would prefer cuts in weapons sys-
tems over wage reductions to achieve a 2-percent reduction in
defense spending. They may find it politically expedient to
back the military--which already blames the Social Christian
Defense Minister for low salaries--in its demands for higher
pay.
Even before the announcement of Tindemans' proposed
budget cuts, NATO officials had expressed concern about Belgian
military programs that were deferred last year and projected
for deferment this year. The call for a 2-percent reduction in
defense spending has only elevated such concern, particularly
in view of defense issues that require immediate attention:
the improved Hawk missile system, the Airborne Warning andnd
Control System, the US-backed long-term defense a
the replacement of armored personnel carriers.
BRIEFS 25X1
Nicaragua
several weeny L)j-
volving students and women--throughout the country. The media
in Nicaragua report the deaths of two students in clashes be-
tween protesters and the National Guard.
violence broke out in Managua yesterday following
. -1 _-,,..._...,a-,.-a-;era--hi flv in-
II Disparate groups opposed to President Somoza are
trying to coordinate their efforts to force Somoza's resigna-
tion. Opposition political groups have reportedly repeated
their refusal to negotiate with Somoza, who has made a number
of concessions to them in an appeal for a dialogue.
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Angola
//Angolan President Neto returned to Luanda yester
day following a one-month, nonofficial visit to the USSR. II 25X1
//Soviet press coverage on the eve of Neto's de-
parture was bland but underscored Soviet support for Angola
and the liberation struggle in southern Africa. While in Mos-
cow, Neto met with President Brezhnev and other senior Soviet
officials, Probably to discuss military and economic assistance.
F77 I
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