NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010104-6
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
14
Document Creation Date: 
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 31, 2006
Sequence Number: 
104
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
April 29, 1978
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010104-6.pdf467.48 KB
Body: 
OF' AW AW ~AW ~AW ~AW AW AW AdW AW AMPF 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 A rRVt;ITfFIrGRelease 2007/03/07 : TO: NAME AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 1 2 3 4 ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPAR E REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOM MENDATION COMMENT FILE RETURN CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600T8P cret 11 q- (Security Classification) Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: Saturday 29 April 1978 CG NIDC 78/100C w NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions State Dept. review completed Top Secret 0 r-- J (Security Classification) 25X Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aliff - Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Approved For R (ease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975 030600010104-6 25X1 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, 29 April 1978. 25X1 The D Cable is for the purpose of informing senior US officials. AFGHANISTAN: Situation Report LEBANON: Forming a New Government Page 1 Page 2 USSR: Tlatelolco Treaty Page 5 USSR: New Advanced Computers SOUTH KOREA: Better Credit Terms BRIEFS Rhodesia China-US Portugal Romania Bulgaria Page 7 Page 7 Page 8 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010104-6 Approved For Relo AFGHANISTAN: Situation Report The coup against the Daoud regime in Afghan- istan seems to have succeeded, at least in the capital. Kabul was relatively quiet yesterday afternoon, troops supporting the new government apparently were mopping up dwindling pockets of resistance. //Still-fragmentary reporting indicates that casualties were heavy in the city and many government buildings were damaged or destroyed. There appears to be ZittZe doubt that President Daoud has been killed.// The membership of the new ruling military council has not yet been revealed. The spokesman for--and possibly chairman of--the council, Lt. Col. Abdul Qadir, has been named Chief of the Defense Force, according to Radio Kabul. The council has announced that the constitution has been abrogated and that the country will be ruled by military decree. All public meetings are banned, citizens of the capital have been instructed to return to their jobs today, and govern- ment officials and military officers have been warned to report promptly to swear allegiance to the new regime. I We lack information on the situation outside Kabul. The new government reports that all military and air units have joined the revolution, but we have no confirmation of this claim. At the time the coup was launched, Daoud's nephew was in command of an army corps in the southwestern city of Kandahar; this city, moreover, is in the area of the Durani tribe, which until now has furnished all of Afghanistan's rulers for the past 200 years. The fate of the unit and of its commander are unknown. There have been no reports yet of reactions from the extremely conservative religious leaders in the provinces. Many of them exert great influence over the rural population and have frequently been at odds with Daoud over his attempts to modernize Afghanistan. Most are fanatically anti-Communist. The new government seems to have recognized the dangers of stimulating such conservative opposition. It has issued bland pronouncements on its ideology and program, emphasizing Islam and nationalism. //If the new leaders are Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Approved For R4 confirmed leftists, as appears probable,// they will almost certainly soft-pedal any leftwing rhetoric until they consider the country to be safely under their control. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 So far, there have been no strong reactions to the events in Kabul from Afghanistan's neighbors. The Soviets have printed straight news accounts of the coup and have issued no commentary. In Iran, the Shah appears resigned to the probabil- ity that he will have to deal with a leftist government on his eastern border. So far, he has refrained from any public com- ment on the coup. The Pakistani press has simply repeated news LEBANON: Forming A New Government //The Lebanese Parliament on Thursday ap- proved a declaration of principles that may serve as a prelimi- nary consensus around which a new cabinet can be formed, and former Prime Minister Huss has been asked to put together a new government. The declaration is ambiguous, however, and possibly contradictory.// //The declaration calls for actions that are largely outside Lebanese control and have little chance of being carried out in the near future. Its passage may help Huss put together a broadly based political cabinet, but it will do little to help the cabinet function afterwards.// //The most ambiguous aspect of the declara- tion concerns its call for control of Palestinian activity within Lebanon. A central provision says flatly that "all Pal- estinian and other armed action throughout Lebanese territory must be halted." As initially passed by a preliminary parlia- mentary committee earlier this week, this part of the declara- tion had been heralded as a major victory for the Christians.// //The declaration actually passed, however, included a prologue reaffirming earlier pan-Arab agreements that guarantee the Palestinians significant freedom of action in southern Lebanon, specifically including the right to bear arms against Israel.// Approved For //Lebanese Christians had been arguing that the Israeli invasion of the south nullified these agreements, and the Christians presumably still adhere to that stand. Vari- ous leftist groups, however, have made their support of the declaration contingent on acceptance of the prologue as an in- tegral part. As a result, the declaration is not so much a starting point for national reconciliation as it is a way of papering over serious national rifts.// //The declaration nonetheless may serve a useful function. Besides serving as the basis for the formation of a government that reflects various political views, it also seems to have helped reduce the tension generated earlier this month by Muslim-Christian and Syrian-Christian clashes.// //Other provisions of the declaration in- clude a call for Israeli withdrawal and the restoration of the Lebanese Government's authority in the south--something Lebanon is powerless to implement. It also states that the Lebanese Army must be rebuilt on a "sound and correct national basis." This statement presumably reflects Muslim concerns that the Army now being reconstituted is dominated by Christians, but it is vague enough to be unobjectionable to all sides. Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010104-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Approved For Re USSR: Tlatelolco Treaty Soviet President Brezhnev will probably sign Proto- col II of the TZateZoZco Treaty, which establishes a nuclear free zone in Latin America, during Mexican President Lopez Por- tiZZo's visit to Moscow in mid-May. The US, the UK, France, and China have already signed this protocol. Protocol II obliges nuclear-weapons states to respect the denuclearized status of the zone and not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against the contracting parties. Soviet adherence to the protocol probably would be intended to dramatize Moscow's role as a proponent of disarma- ment issues on the eve of the UN Special Session on Disarma- ment. Signing the protocol could also give the USSR a stronger basis for objecting to transit of the Panama Canal by US ships carrying nuclear weapons. The Soviets probably consulted the Cubans before de- ciding to sign the protocol--perhaps during Cuban Foreign Min- ister Malmierca's visit to the USSR last week. Cuba has not signed the treaty because of what it terms "longstanding prob- lems with the US." Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 25X6 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Approved For'2elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009751A030600010104-6 USSR: New Advanced Computers //The Soviets have announced that they have developed two new large-scale, high-speed scientific com- puters. The announcement, in a Pravda article early this month, indicates that the USSR has made a strong commitment to produc- ing these computers. Advanced computer developments are classi- fied in the USSR, and public announcements have been made in the past only when the Soviets have had or were very close to having operational models.// //The two new machines--the Elbrus-1 and Elbrus-2, previously referred to as VS-1 and VS-2--are compara- ble, in computational capabilities, to some of the largest US computer systems available commercially. The Elibrus-1 has been fabricated for testing, and a well-developed prototype of the much faster Elbrus-2 probably also exists. The machines are being developed by the same group that produced the BESM-6, which has been the workhorse of Soviet large-scale scientific computers since the mid-1960s.// //Unlike such general-purpose computers as the Soviets' Ryad models, large-scale scientific computers are not intended to be produced in large numbers. Because of their size, design, high performance, and cost, their applica- tion is limited to complex military and technological problems in such areas as air defense, nuclear weapons design, aircraft design, seismic analysis, and long-range weather forecastin . South Korea's strong economic performance and bright financial prospects have substantially improved the credit terms it has been offered for overseas borrowing. Seoul has recently negotiated two major Eurodollar loans with interest Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Approved For'2elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T0097541030600010104-6 rates sharply lower and maturities longer than any it has ob- tained in the past. With excess liquidity in international capital markets, the loans reportedly have been quickly sub- scribed despite the lower rate of return. The planned with- drawal of US ground troops from South Korea appears to have had little effect on the negotiations. The Pohang Iron and Steel Company obtained one of the loans. This was a $100 million, seven-year credit with an interest rate 1.375 percent above the London Interbank Offered Rate--the rate paid by bankers when borrowing from each other. In addition to the favorable terms, the loan did not require a government guarantee and was the first Eurodollar credit in which Korean banks participated as comanagers. An even more noteworthy credit--for $300 million--is being arranged by several major US banks for the Korea Develop- ment Bank and the Korea Exchange Bank. This loan--to be used to finance development projects--reportedly will have a 10-year maturity and carry a .875 percent margin over the bankers' rate, the most favorable terms South Korea has ever received. The black co-minister for justice in Rhodesia's bi- racial interim ministerial council, Byron Hove, was dismissed from his post yesterday by the executive council, according to an announcement from Salisbury. The executive council consists of Prime Minister Smith and the three black nationalist lead- ers--Abel Muzorewa, Ndabaningi Sithole, and Jeremiah Chirau-- who signed an internal settlement agreement with Smith last month. Hove was dismissed as a result of a dispute with his white counterpart over white dominance of the police force. He had been appointed to the council by Muzorewa, who could have vetoed his dismissal since all executive council decisions must be made by consensus. Smith and the white ministers on the ministerial council probably convinced the blacks that Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A03060001~~ 0104-6 Approved For Fjelease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975~030600010104-6 25X1 Hove's dismissal was necessary to maintain the confidence of Rhodesia's whites--a point Smith has used with good effect in the past in bargaining with the nationalists. 25X1 Peking has officially nominated Chai Tse-min, cur- rently its Ambassador to Thailand, as the new head of the Chi- nese Liaison Office in Washington. The post has been vacant since Huang Chen returned home in November to become Minister of Culture. Chaff served previously as Ambassador to Hungary, Guinea, and Egypt and as the president of Peking's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries. He has the reputation of being a confident and realistic diplomat. With Chaff as head of the Liaison Office, Peking will again have two ambassadorial- level representatives in Washington: the deputy head of the Liaison Office, Han Hsu, also holds the rank of ambassador. Portugal Portugal and the International Monetary Fund have agreed on terms for a $50 million loan after months of nego- tiations. The accord means Portugal will get a major portion of the $750 million in credits pledged to it by a group of for- eign governments. It will also greatly improve the country's chances of refinancing a major part of its short-term debt. The agreement calls for stiff restrictions on credit and an immediate 5-percent devaluation of the escudo, followed by additional monthly devaluations of 1.2 percent through next April. President Ceausescu will begin a two-week tour of Asian Communist countries on 15 May. Foreign Minister Andrei told the US Ambassador to Romania on Wednesday that Ceausescu will visit China, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. He is expected to return to Bucharest on 31 May. Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010104-6 Approved For The China trip, which has been expected for some time, is intended in part to balance Ceausescu's visit to the US earlier this month; the Romanians customarily try to main- tain a balance in their relations with all the important powers. While in Vietnam and Cambodia, Ceausescu may try to act as a conciliator in the conflict be- tween those countries. Bulgaria A reshuffle of Bulgarian Government and Central Com- mittee officials yesterday reflects a belated attempt to strengthen the management of agriculture. Minister of Agricul- ture Gancho Krustev and Deputy Premier Mako Dakov were fired. Dakov, a former Minister of Forestry, was reported to have been responsible for the supervision of the agricultural sec- tor in the Council of Ministers. The head of the Central Com- mittee's department for agriculture also was dismissed. Bulgaria's harvest in 1977 fell far short of planned targets, mainly because of a summer drought. Agricultural ex- ports to the West are an important source of the country's hard currency earnings. F7777 I 25X1 Approved or a ease - - proved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6 Top Secret (Security Classification) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Top Secret (Security Classification) OANFAMV Aff A "" 1 J Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010104-6