NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010122-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 22, 2006
• Sequence Number: 122
• Publication Date: May 10, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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TO:
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IA-RDP79T00975AO3060001 f102p 2- Secret
(Security Classification)
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Wednesday 10 May 1978 CG NIDC 78/109C
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
1
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
State Dept. review completed (Security Classification) 0
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for Wednesday, 10 May 1978.
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I The NID Cable is for the purpose or in
senior o icials.
SYRIA-LEBANON: Problems Continue
ITALY: Consequences of Moro's Death
Page 2
Page 3
USSR-SUDAN: Ambassador Returning
AFGHANISTAN: Food Crisis
BURMA-BANGLADESH: Refugee Problem
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Page 6
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I Syria is urging Lebanese President Sarkis to include
e ea,er of the pro-Syrian Lebanese Baath Party in the new
cabinet that Prime Minister designate Huss is trying to form.
The Syrians are wary of the declaration of principles endorsed
by the Lebanese Parliament last month that calls for restric-
tions on the Palestinian presence in Lebanon.
Syria has been press-
ing Sarkis to have Baath leader Assam Qansu and perhaps other
pro-Syrian Lebanese brought into the new government. Sarkis
accepted the resignations of Prime Minister Huss and the cabi-
net in mid-April, but later called on Huss to form a new cabi-
net. Several small pro-Syrian Lebanese parties, such as the
Baath, were not represented in the old cabinet. The Syrians
would like to use Qansu to influence the Lebanese Government,
which they believe is swayed by Christian interests. The con-
troversy over Qansu--he is opposed by the Christian rightists--
is apparently a major issue preventing Huss from naming a new
cabinet.
The US Embassy in Damascus believes the Syrians are
ambivalent about the Lebanese Parliament's declaration of views
on the Palestinian presence. While Damascus welcomes any signs,
such as the declaration, of Lebanese reconciliation that might
permit Syria to withdraw troops from the country, the Syrians
are unenthusiastic about the declaration's provision for dis-
arming the Palestinians. They fear that any Lebanese effort to
enforce this provision could spark a major crisis in which they
would have to choose sides.
The US Embassy sees little likelihood that Syria
will be willing to rein in the fedayeen in the absence of ma
Palestinian provocations.
Syria is also encouraging some Christian leaders to
keep National Liberal Party leader Camille Shamun and other
hard-liners from sparking a renewal of fighting. Nonetheless,
the clashes in Beirut last weekend suggest that more skirmishes
between Christian militiamen and Syrian troops are likely.
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ITALY: Consequences of Moro's Death
The murder of Aldo Moro opens a new period of un-
certainty in Italy. The government has won a negative victory
by remaining firm, but the Red Brigades are untouched and can
be expected to strike again. Maneuvering to take the power
seat Moro occupied will break out in the open almost immedi-
ately.
The government regarded its firmness as the only
possible course, but this has caused considerable bitterness.
Moro's family refuses to permit a state funeral and objects
to the participation of state functionaries in a public com-
memoration. The Red Brigades did not achieve their apparent
goal of provoking the government into an indiscriminate roundup
of extreme leftists--and thereby causing an antigovernment
backlash--but the security situation cannot be expected to
improve rapidly, and Italy waits for the terrorists to strike
again.
I I A major unknown is the public reaction to the murder.
Although initial reports speak of a nationwide shock wave, only
revulsion on the part of the radical groups that aid the Red
Brigades would reduce the potential for further terrorism--and
this seems unlikely.
I I Political maneuvering to fill the power vacuum left
by Moro's death has already begun, although the exact lineup
of contenders is unclear. It is also uncertain whether any
grouping will coalesce around a policy of trying to halt the
Communist Party's move toward full governmental power. Having
taken a firm and responsible position against negotiating with
terrorists, the Communists are presumably in a strong position.
The likelihood of more terrorism poses the need for strong and
united government, and it is doubtful that any Christian Demo-
cratic government can do without the Communists.
The provincial elections in small towns that will
take place Sunday will be watched closely for indications of
mood and for signposts of what can be done next.
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USSR-SUDAN: Ambassador Returning
I The Soviets have decided to send their Am-
assaaor acc o dan after a year's absence. They are respond-
ing to recent indications by the Sudanese of willingness to
normalize bilateral relations. //Ambassador Fedotov was re-
caZZed Zast June after a series of measures taken against the
Soviets in Sudan by President Numayri, who charged that they
were supporting a Libyan-Ethiopian plot to overthrow him.
Fedotov's return, however, does not indicate that Soviet-
Sudanese relations will improve significantly.//
I I In spite of their continued hostility toward each
other, both the USSR and Sudan have reason to want normal re-
lations. Concerned by what he perceives as a combined threat
against him, Numayri has moved in the past year to disarm his
opponents. He has sought reconciliation with domestic opposi-
tion groups and has moved to improve relations with Libya and
Ethiopia. He has also tried to mediate between Libya and Chad
in order to defuse the Libyan-backed rebellion in northern
Chad, which he perceives as a threat to the stability of the
region.
The return of the Soviet Ambassador probably does
not portend a significant improvement in relations. Although
Numayri's most recent public criticism of the USSR was more
restrained than usual, he has continued to attack the Soviets
for their policies in North Africa. He almost certainly remains
convinced that the USSR, in league with Libya, seeks to encircle
Sudan and overthrow him.
//For their part, the Soviets undoubtedly would
applaud the downfall of Numayri. They have seen their position
in Sudan deteriorate gradually after 1971, when the Sudanese
Communist Party participated in a coup attempt against Numayri,
and precipitately after J-htm - T,ihvaft-backed attempt to overthrow
Numayri in July 1976.//
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I Afghan President Taraki is apparently instituting
a grain distribution plan in order to offset food deficits in
rural areas. Such a plan might meet the immediate food needs
of the rural poor and could win some popular support for the
new regime.
Last Thursday, a government radiobroadcast ordered
all individuals who own grain products to turn them over to
the government "to meet the needs of the people." Because food
prices have risen approximatley 10 percent, the government
action might be an attempt to stop food speculation.
On the other hand, inadequate rainfall last year has
reduced wheat production and caused shortages of food and
livestock feed in some areas. In other areas, there is increas-
ing hunger, and livestock conditions in the northern part of
the country are said to be very poor.
To date, the international response in food aid has
not met Afghanistan's projected needs, perhaps because govern-
ment estimates are too high. The Afghans may see the food short-
age as an opportunity to demonstrate their concern for the popu-
lation. During an extensive food shortage in 1971 and 1972, an
emergency government pro ram for food distribution helped al-
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BURMA-BANGLADESH: Refugee Problem
I Burma's efforts to root out illegal residents
LZvzng a Tong its border with Bangladesh have resulted in a
flow of refugees into Bangladesh that has complicated bilat-
eral relations and could lead to increased tension.
The Burmese Government has been conducting citizen-
snip checks throughout the country since March. It asserts
that 75,000 Muslims of Bangladeshi origin are residing ille-
gally in Arakan State, about one-half of them recent arrivals.
These include some who fled Bangladesh in 1971 during that
country's war with Pakistan. Representatives of UN organiza-
tions who visited the refugee camps in Bangladesh last weekend
support the statements of the Bangladesh Government that 70,000
refugees have been registered so far and that 20,000 to 30,000
others remain to be registered.
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I The Bangladeshi Government and press allege that the
predominantly Buddhist Burmese fear the indigenous Muslim mi-
nority in the border area and want to oust them. The Burmese
operation, probably conducted in a heavy-handed manner, appar-
ently did cause the exodus of those with no proof of Burmese
citizenship. Bangladesh has further charged that atrocities
committed by the Burmese military precipitated the exodus. A
Burmese Government statement released last weekend, on the
other hand, alleges that Bangladeshi insurgents and bandits
are responsible both for the atrocities and for inciting the
local Muslims to flee Burma.
and organizations for assistance in coping with the refugee in-
flux and in persuading Burma to take back most of the refugees.
say Bangladesh is exaggerating the prob-
however
The Burmese
,
,
lem for political purposes and seem unwilling to postpone their
operation.
Although neither side seems to want a confrontation
a Ts tage, Burma's determination to rid itself of the al-
leged aliens--coupled with Bangladesh's need to appear nation-
alistic and support its ethnic kin--has brought bilateral nego-
tiations to an impasse. Moreover, reporting in the Bangladesh
press of the refugees' stories of atrocities has grown increas-
ingly hysterical, and US and UN officials in Bangladesh are ex-
pressing concern that Bangladeshi Muslims might retaliate against
d
er area.
the nearly 80,000 Buddhists living in the bor
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