NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010128-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2006
• Sequence Number: 128
• Publication Date: July 27, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Thursday 27 July 19713 CG NIDC 78/174
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, 27 July 1978.
25X1 The NID Cable is for the purpose o informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Situation Report
NORTH KOREA: Tunneling Activity
ETHIOPIA: Situation Report
Page 2
Page 3
Page 3
USSR: Changes on SA-8 Missile
Page 5
Page 6
Eastern Europe
Page 8
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LEBANON: Situation Report
I Christian militia units are reinforcing their posi-
tions south of Beirut as fighting continues in the Christian
town of Hadath.
Sources of the US defense attache in Beirut report
that the militias have brought up mortars and possibly some
artillery to support their forces in the town. One source re-
ports that the Christians responded to Syrian artillery fire
yesterday with mortars.
I IHadath is a stronghold of former Lebanese President
Camille amun, who has demanded a complete Syrian withdrawal
from Lebanon. The militiamen in Hadath appear to have taken
few casualties during the clashes, which broke out on Satur-
day, and continue to provoke the Syrians with sniper fire.
The Syrians are taking numerous casualties--press re-
ports indicate that at least 35 Syrians have been wounded.
Perhaps in response, the Syrians launched their heaviest bom-
bardment of Hadath to date on Tuesday evening. Press reports
indicate some fighting in Christian East Beirut as well.
The Damascus press has blamed the Christians for pro-
voking the fighting in Hadath. Nonetheless, the Syrians seem
to be increasingly sensitive to charges that they seek hegemony
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over Lebanon. Foreign Minister Khaddam in a recent interview
reiterated Syria's willingness to withdraw from Lebanon when
some stability is restored to the country. Khaddam expressed
frustration with the expense of Syria's involvement in Lebanon,
which he placed at $70 million a month.
The US defense attache's sources estimate that 85
percent of Hadath's civilian population has left the area.
Civilian cas a ties from the Syrian shelling have been heavy.
NORTH KOREA: Tunneling Activity
//A US - South Korean detection team has dis-
covered and is trying to neutralize what it believe to be an-
other North Korean tunnel under the Demilitarized Zone. The
tunnel passes near Panmunjom and extends several hundred meters
under the southern half of the DMZ.//
//Two tunnels were detected and neutralized in
the western half of the DMZ in 1974 and 1975. The South Koreans
believe they have evidence of active North Korean tunneling at
several other sites along the Zone, and additional tunnels may
have been completed without being discovered.//
North Korean tunneling was
egun in 1971 at the direction of President Kim Il-song and
uses military personnel and sophisticated mining equipment.
The program has expanded with the steady buildup of North
Korea's unconventional forces and could be intended to insert 25X1
lightly armed infantry close to or behind South Korean forward
defense lines. South Korea's fixed defensive positions near the
DMZ are vulnerable to attack from the rear.
ETHIOPIA: Situation Report
I Ethiopian forces have captured Adi Urgi, a major town
some 40 kilometers south of Asmara, and have completed their
occupation of Teseney on the Sudanese border.
The government's immediate objective is to relieve
the sieges of Asmara and Barentu, open the roads and recapture
major towns such as Karen and Akordat by 12 September--the
fourth anniversary of the Ethiopian revolution.
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Eritrean Liberation Front. The ELF, which has been losing
strength to the rival Eritrean People's Liberation Front in re-
cent months, has had the difficult job of defending the open
terrain along the Sudanese border and the main road from Adwa
to Asmara. The two factions had planned a joint political com-
The Ethiopian gains have come at the expense of the
mand, but their fighting forces remain separate.
The hardest fighting will take place when government 25X1
forces attempt to move into more rugged terrain and confront
the more powerful EPLF forces. At present there would appear to
be no prospects for negotiations to end the fighting.
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BOLIVIA: President Pereda's Plans
In his first major address since he took power Zast
week, Bo ivian President Pereda has pledged to continue--with
modifications--the democratization process set in motion by
former President Banter. He ignored opposition demands for a
new presidential election.
At the swearing-in ceremony for his new cabinet,
Pere a renewed his pledge to seek national unity, promised to
present a "plan of reform" to facilitate popular participation
in government, and stressed the observance of human rights. Ap-
proximately 100 politicians and trade union members who were
arrested last week, however, are still in custody.
Most major political leaders remain in hiding while
ing for international support for a new election--an
ff
e
ort
meeting with little success. The Bolivian Foreign Ministry re-
ports that Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, and the USSR have rec-
ognized the Pereda government, and others seem sure to follow.
The most vocal critic of the new government,. Venezuelan Presi-
dent Perez, appears to be getting nowhere with his attempts to
have the Organization of American ates review the Bolivian
situation.
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USSR: Changes on SA-8 Missile
The Soviets apparently have modified their SA-8 tacti-
cal sur ace-to-air missile system to increase its firepower and
reliability.
The SA-8 is a mobile, low- to medium-altitude air de-
tense system that is being deploved with Soviet
in the USSR and East Germany. 25X1
an SA-8 launch vehicle in East Germany showed that it was
equipped to fire six missiles instead of the four that have
been associated with the system.
In addition, the missiles apparently will now be fired
directly from their shipping containers, which would probably
increase missile loading speed as well as protect the missiles,
thereby increasing their reliability.
There are currently three Soviet SA-8 regiments in
East ermany, each of which probably has 20 launch vehicles.
We do not know how many of these are the modified type. With
the modified vehicles, the number of missiles on launcher
rai
in a regiment would increase from 80 to 120. 25X1
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Eastern Europe
I I Grain harvest conditions are deteriorating across
as ern urope, indicating that this year's crop will be less
than the 93 million tons we forecast earlier this month. The
weather outlook for the region remains unfavorable as frequent
storms delay and complicate the harvest. Damage from wind and
rain so far is most severe in Hungary and in Czechoslovakia.
The high moisture content of the cut grain is taxing
drying facilities. While some of the wheat will be too poor
for breadmaking, almost all of the grain can be used for live-
stock feed.
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