NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010020-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: August 11, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Friday 11 August 1978 CG NIDC 78/187
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, 11 August 1978
The NID Ca e is for t e purpose of informing
CONTENTS
USSR-PAKISTAN: Better Relations
MEXICO-CUBA: Arms Control Meeting
ETHIOPIA: More Power for Mengistu
NIGERIA: Foreign Exchange Crunch
RHODESIA: War Casualty Figures
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USSR-PAKISTAN: Better Relations
overtures for better relations is intended to ease they fears
sparked in Islamabad by the leftist coup in Afghanistan this
spring and to test Pakistan's willingness to leave the Central
Treaty Organization. Pakistan, however, remains deeply con-
cerned about long--term Soviet and Afghan intentions, particu-
Zarly on the Pushtunistan dispute. Its response to the more
favorable Soviet attitude will depend on how the Soviets and
the Afghans handle this issue, and on the ZeveZ.s of support
that the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran offer to Pakistan.
//Moscow's favorable response to Pakistani
wake of the coup in Afghanistan. The Pakistanis have professed
dissatisfaction over the level of support being offered by
their traditional allies and concern over some private Soviet
hints that Pakistan now has no alternative but to be more ac-
commodating to the. USSR. Consequently, Islamabad included
Shahi in an economic delegation that went to Moscow to discuss
additional Soviet aid for the steel mill under construction in
Karachi.
late last month to test Soviet attitudes toward Pakistan in the
Pakistani Minister of State Agha Shahi visited Moscow
on political and economic matters. He had anticipated that the
Soviets would approve Pakistan's desire to enter the nonaligned
movement but was unprepared for their "full support" of Paki-
stan's desire to continue negotiations on the Pushtunistan dis-
pute with Afghanistan.//
//Shahi apparently found the Soviets forthcoming
ess to set aside another $220 million for the steel mill and
its promise to send chief economic aid negotiator Skachkov to
Islamabad for additional aid talks before the end of the year.
Premier Kosygin accepted an invitation to visit Pakistan, al-
though no date has yet been set.
The Pakistani was also pleased by Moscow's willing-
Moscow had been wooing Pakistan before the change
of government in Kabul in hopes of braking India's moves toward
better relations with China and the US.
(Moscow's
immediate aims, however, probably are to reduce the chance that
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Pakistan will take any concrete steps to "destabilize:" the new
Afghan Government and to capitalize on Pakistan's seeming will-
ingness to move further away from the US.
MEXICO-CUBA: Arms Control Meeting
participated in regional arms control talks. Cuba's attendance
reflects its increased interest in disarmament matters in re-
cent months.
in Mexico City on 21 August to discuss conventional arms Zimita-
tions. This will be the first time the Castro government has
Cuba will attend a meeting of Latin American states
cipants to discuss the positions they intend to take at a UN
conference on the prohibition of inhumane weapons to be held
the following week. Mexico also hopes for a general exchange
of views on conventional arms restraint in Latin America.
Mexico, which organized the meeting, wants the parti-
assa or, possibly Jose Luis Perez Hernandez, a Foreign Ministry
official who has been active in UN disarmament affairs and the
nonaligned movement. By attending, Cuba hopes to strengthen its
regional ties and perhaps to increase its chances of winning
one of the new seats on the permanent Committee on Disarmament
in. Geneva. Cuba may also wish to obtain support for certain of
its own objectives, especially the removal of the US military
presence in the Caribbean.
Cuba will send a representative with the rank of am-
The Soviets and the Cubans have coordinated closely on many
disarmament issues, particularly their attitude toward the neu-
tron. weapon. Although its rhetoric has reflected Soviet policy,
Cuba has not always followed the Soviet example; it has not,
for instance, signed the Treaty of Tlatelolco declaring Latin
America a nuclear-free zone.
The USSR may have encouraged Cuba to participate.
meeting to Latin American foreign ministers during the session
in Washington in June of the Organization of American States's
General Assembly, but their desire to include Cuba has led them
The Mexicans first proposed a regional arms control
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has agreed to reconsider.
to avoid using the OAS itself. At least 15 other states will
attend the Mexico City meeting. Brazil initially refused but
ETHIOPIA: More Power for Mengistu
Ethiopia's ruling military council as regional administrators
in an attempt to assert stronger personal control over the
government. More changes are likely as Mengistu streamlines
the bureaucracy and prepares for the formation of a national
Workers' party.
Chairman Mengistu has appointed six members of
administrators appointed last weekend. The members are the
first since the council was formed to be assigned to civilian
positions in other than an advisory capacity.
The six council members were among eight regional
positions. Ten of Ethiopia's 14 regions are now headed by mili-
tary officers.
tary officer, as are the appointees to two lesser government
One of the other new administrators is also a mili-
to strengthen his position within the. council and to expand
his direct control over all levels of the government. He
probably expects that military officers in key administrative
positions will help ensure stability when the proposed workers'
party is established. Mengistu may announce the party's forma-
tion on 12 September, the fourth anniversary of the revolution.
Mengistu, by making these appointments, is trying
reform. This might arouse renewed opposition, especially in
the northern regions, where the land tenure system is firmly
established. It is probably significant that five of the eight
new administrators were sent to the northern regions.
probably push more vigorously its program to make radical
changes in Ethiopian society, particularly in the area of land
Once the workers' party is formed, the council will
date his personal power.
administrative posts outside Addis Ababa, dispersing the
council's collective authority while helping Mengistu consoli-
More council members are likely to be assigned to
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NIGERIA: Foreign Exchange Crunch
billion in July, down $2 billion since the beginning of the
year and the lowest level in four years. The foreign business
community in Nigeria believes Lagos will soon devalue its
currency.
Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves fell to $2.2
more than six years as cheaper supplies from the North Sea and
Alaska became available.
oil revenues, which account for more than 90 percent of export
earnings, coupled with a rise in imports of capital goods and
services. In March, oil exports fell to their lowest level in
The rapid drawdown of reserves reflects a decline of
port earnings and ward off serious balance-of-payments prob-
lems. It has:
The government has taken several steps to boost ex-
-- Cut oil prices and increased the discount to third-
party customers who sign long-term contracts.
Begun implementing an austerity budget.
Renegotiated contracts for major development projects
to stretch out payment periods.
-- Arranged a $1 billion Eurodollar loan, which has been
used, and negotiated a second $1.2 billion Eurodollar
loan.
-- Pursued arrangements that will enable Nigeria to re-
ceive capital goods and food in exchange for oil.
ning to increase production, oil exports for the year will be
around $8 billion, down from last year's figure of $10 billion.
The austerity measures should slow the increase in imports, but
substantial expenditures for ongoing projects will continue.
account deficit in 1978. Although the oil companies are begin-
Nigeria appears to be headed for a $3 billion current
current account deficit. Indeed, its immediate effect would be
A devaluation would do little to improve this year's
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additional international financing, or both.
tainly will have to scale back its development effort, seek
to raise import costs. Lagos in the months ahead almost cer-
RHODESIA: War Casualty Figures
month by Rhodesia show significantly more black and white
civilians killed so far this year than during all of Zast
.year. The figures reflect in part stepped-up guerrilla attacks
against civilian targets, designed to weaken black confidence
in the transition government and to force more white emigra-
tion.
Comprehensive war casualty figures released this
killed during 1977 and constitutes an even larger increase
over the number killed during previous years. Figures for
black civilians are less precise, but apparently more than
1,000 have been killed this year, perhaps one-third of the
total killed since hostilities increased in December 1972.
the past seven months; this number is 33 more than the total
The government says 86 white civilians have died in
ave ie
inside Rhodesia during the past five years, either directly or
indixe.ctly as a result of the war; others have been killed in
neighboring countries during cross-border operations. Nearly
5,Q00 of these are said to have been guerrilla fighters, and
The Rhodesians say over 9 400 individuals h A, A
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vakia in 1968 and the repression of Polish students and intel-
lectuals that year.
Czechoslovak dissidents intend to release the first joint pro-
test statement by East European dissidents on 21 August. The
statement will criticize the Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslo-
According to the US Embassy in Prague, Polish and
quiet contacts with each other in the past. Publication of
their joint document will probably stimulate the East: European
security services to try to prevent further coordinated activ-
Polish and Czechoslovak dissidents have maintained
ities.
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