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Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 ,~.~ ~ 1 r 1 1 1 RouTING - . TO: NAME AND ADDRESS ~ DATE ? INITIALS ~. 2 3 4 ACTION UIRECT REPLY PREPAR E REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECDMMENOATION COMMENT FILE RETURN CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE Top Secret (Security Classification) Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE Tuesd,~v 29 August 1978 CG NIDC_78/202 1 1 w NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions 1 1 State Dept. review completed Top Secret (Security Classification) Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 25X1 Portuguese President Eanes officially appointed A re o Nobre da Costa Prime Minister yesterday. The cabinet of independent technocrats will be sworn in today., temporarily eclipsing party government in Portugal. Outgoing Prime Minis- ter Mario Snares, whose Socialists have dominated the govern- ment since 7976, may try to trigger a re~jeetion of the new government's program to prevent Nobre da Costa. from taking office. More likely, Snares will consent to a weak, transi- tional government as preparations for early elections and a return to party rule continue. President Eanes has higher hopes for the new government and will attempt to .keep his .hand-picked Prime Minister in office until scheduled elections 'are .held in 1980. As Prime Minister, Nobre da Costa's major goal is o a vance economic recovery while avoiding the kind of crip- pling party squabbles that led to the collapse of Portugal's promising Socialist - Center Democratic alliance last month. His cabinet is accordingly nonpartisan and emphasizes adminis- trative and technical skills over political experience. The 16- member team includes seven engineers, three Army officers, two economists, two university professors, and two lawyers. Socia.l- st spokesmen-have disparagingly dubbed it a "corporate board of -directors . " The Finance Ministry will be in the hands of Silva opes, e former governor of the Bank of Portugal who is ex- pected to continue the previous government's anti-inflationary austerity policies. Firmino Miguel, who continues on as Defense Minister, is the cabinet's only other figure of national stature. Overall, the government appears to be center-right, though Nobre da Costa may have found some balance by giving reputed leftists the foreign affairs, labor, and social affairs portfolios. The leftist credentials of Foreign Minister Correia Gago and the others, however, are suspect. Whatever the new government's policies, most observers are etting that its only partly intentional divorce from the political parties will bring it down within six months. Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 //Nobre da Costa's first test will come when he submits his ro ran for le islative review, as he must do within 10 days. Conservative parties are also under strong pressure to distance themselves from the government so as not to appear to sanction a non-party government--or to alienate the powerful So-cialists. //The Center Democrats are under the strong- est pressure to support the government. Nobre da Costa has demonstrated intentions to redress their longstanding grievances concerning agriculture policies and repay their constituents for property losses incurred during the revolution. Furthermore, President Eanes stood by them in their government-rending dis- pute with the Socialists. Social Democrats, who felt somewhat excluded in the President's efforts to find new government, will be more inclined to abstain.// Eanes clearly wants to see the government last until ~19SV: ~,ven as the country's most popular political figure, how- ever, there is little he could da to save Nobre da Costa from a concerted Socialist opposition. Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 29 August 1978. The NID Cable is or t e purpose o in orming LEBANON: Fighting Spreads ZAMBIA: Election Preparations NICARAGUA: Arrests Confirmed ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel CHINA: Rejuvenation of S&T System NAMIBIA: Shipanga's Return BRIEFS: Spain Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 5 Page 6 Page 8 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 LEBANON: Fighting Spreads Fighting resumed between Sz~rian troops and Christian m2 Zt2amen in Beirut gesterda~, while in northern Lebanon S~r- ian forces have seized several Christian villages. Clashes between the Syrians and the Christians erup e in Beirut late in the day. Both sides used small arms . , and the Syrians employed tanks and artillery to counter Chris- tian mortar fire. It is unclear what sparked the fighting, but it probably resulted from the tension produced by the clashes in the north over the weekend. The Phalangist radio reported yesterday that the yrians were shelling Bsha.rri--a Phalangist mountain stron - , g hold, but Damascus announced last night that the Syrians had completed their operations in the north. We agree with the US Embassy in Beirut that neither the Syrian nor the Phalangist leadership deliberately sought the hostili-ties in the north, which grew out of internecine Christian feuding. The Syrians have nevertheless taken advantage of the situation to improve their position in the north cons~_derably, and this has increased tension throughout the country.. Both sides have been, expecting the other to provoke a crisis before the Camp David summit begins. Lebanese Foreign Minister Butrus traveled tc~ Syria yesterday to meet with President Assad. Assad probably wants to prevent the new fighting in Beirut from getting out of hand because it again risks Israeli intervention on behalf of the Christians. Most Christian leaders probably want to avoid a major round of bloodletting in the city, but extremist Christians may try to aggravate the situation in an effort to drag in the Israelis. Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 f h f' htin in Beirut is not brought under con- I t e ig g , however, the Syrians may decide to abandon their d try for a quick tactic of shelling, t-hP C'hri ~ti an cruarter an military victory. ZAMBIA: Election Preparations tzao Zambian poZitieaZ figures ent bz ~ //The announcem end to run for president against President Kaunda has raised the poZitieaZ temperature 2n Zambia. Although Kaunda seems almost certain to win reelection, his opponents are seek- ing to exploit popular discontent over Zambia's economic prob- Zems and Kaunda's preoccupation with the Rhodesian situation. These charged poZitieaZ conditions are ZikeZy to persist at least until after the vote, expected to take place in October.// e and Harry Nkumbula, as well as an //Simon Kapwepw obscure businessman, plan to vie for the ruling United National Independence Party's nomination for president at a conference of 6,000 party delegates on 9 September. Under Zambia's one- party system, only one candidate for president can be presented to the electorate.// Zambian voters can entia election, but Kaunda "yes" votes. Dissatisfaction cause a low voter turnout or vote against Kaunda. cast negative ballots in the presi- is likely to gain a majority of with the government, however, could an embarrassingly high negative we and Nkumbula were leaders along with Kaunda Kapwep le for independence. Because .each represents tru ' gg s s in a one of the country's major tribal groups, their candidacies Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 are aggravating tribal divisions within the country. Kaanda, on the other hand, draws broader national support; his :family came from outside Zambia, and he is not identified with any one tribe. Kapwepwe is nevertheless a threat because he repre- sents the Bemba-speakers, who constitute about 35 perce~zt of the population. //Kapwepwe is trying to capitalize on wide:~pread discontent over the economy by promising to give priority to economic reconstruction and less attention to "internat:~onal politics"--a reference to Kaunda's involvement in the R~iodesian problem. He has also echoed suggestions made by other c~~itics of Kaunda by stating that he would boost the economy by reopen- ing the border with Rhodesia and trading with South Afr~:ca despite disagreeing with the olicies of the overnment:; of those countries.// NICARAGUA: Arrests Confirmed Nicaraguan president Sor,7aza has confirmed the ar- rests of National Guard officers cznd enlisted men for cc up plotting, but he apparentZrg remairas confident of his hold on power. ~'he reports of miZitar~ dissatisfaction mazy nanetheZess strengthen the belief of some raithin the opposition that- they have Somoza on the run. According to the President's son, a major in the uar a plot involved 12 to 15 officers and 40 to 50 en- listed men, primarily from the engineer battalion and the Air Farce. Major Somoza believes the plotters were in contact with the broad-based anti-Somoza coalition that called the national strike for this week. The fact that they were not connected with combat troops justifies to some extent the President's confidence that his position remains secure. Somoza told a US official that he had been monitoring e time the ac-tivities of those arrested. This claim is supported by earlier reporting and seems credible because of the President's system of close checks and balances within the military. Meanwhile, the fourth day of the opposition's ~~eneral strike was apparently inconclusive. Most businesses in Managua were open, but the strike was more effective in the provinces, where there was scattered violence. in r_1uc3;nrr several reported deaths. Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel Argentina and Chile are still seeking a diplomatic so7,ution to their longstanding dispute over the Beagle Channel, despite a temporary breakdown in negotiations earlier this month. Although hotheads on either side could provoke an inci- dent, both countries seem to prefer a peaceful resolution of the issue. In recent weeks, the Beagle Channel question has re- ceive increasing public attention, and there has been much saber-rattling in both capitals. Last week, the Argentine For- eign Ministry publicly condemned Chile's decision to halt the talks as violating the spirit of the negotiations." At the same time, Argentine military leaders announced that they had discussed security and strategy regarding the dispute. Both countries have also reinforced military units in the area. There is, however, no evidence that either side is eager to initiate hostilities, and there are reports that the talks may resume soon. The increase in tough talk and provoca- tive actions nevertheless bring a sense of urgency that could complicate renewed discussions and even precipitate a military incident. CHINA: Rejuvenation of S&T System China has apparently made considerable progress in recen~nths in improving its administrative system for science and technology. Vice Premier Fang I, head of the State Scientific and Technological Commission, called in March for a "nationwide scientific and technological research system." Since March, there has been a flurry of activity to implement Fang's guidance. Administrative and structural reorganizations intended to improve the science system have occurred in the Academy of Sciences and the universities; some of the scholarly societies .disbanded during the Cultural Revolution have been reactivated. Personnel in these organizations have been shuffled to give more authority to professional scientists. Researchers are being assured that they will not be burdened by political meetings, that they will direct their own research, and that they will receive recognition for their work. Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Many scientists in factories, universities, and insti- u es ave been promoted. Provincial and municipal confa:rences bringing together scientific and technical personnel to discuss planning and administration have been held in at least :14 prov- inces. Two of the country's major newspapers have insti-~.uted science sections, and lectures on scientific subjects h~~ve been given to provincial cadre. NAMIBIA: Shipanga's Return //The return of nationalist leader Andreas Shipanga to Namibia Zast Saturday could trigger a reaZi;~nment of political forces within the territory and could deepen the split in the leadership of the South-West Africa People's Or- ganization.// //A disaffected former SWAPO information minister, Shipanga had been in Western Europe since he and 10 of _zis fol- lowers were released from detention in Tanzania in May. In an effort to establish himself as a middle-of-the-road independent, Shipanga has formed a new party--the SWAPO Democrats--and hopes to attract support from both sides of the political spectrum.// //The biggest question he faces, however, is whether he can garner backing from his fellow Ovambo tribes- mPn. who constitute about half of the Namibian population. /Immediately upon his return, Shipanga called for the re .ease of SWAPO members now detained in Zambia and South Africa. He believes most of them will support his cause. Shipanga asserts that SWAPO is holding 1,800 of its disaffected members in three camps in Zambia, but SWAPO's exiled leadership denies the charges.// 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 //Shipanga doubtless also hopes to capitalize on i erences etween SWAPO's internal wing and its exiled lead- ership. Members of the internal wing appear more committed to resolving the Namibian problem by peaceful means,.. primarily because they are well known. locally and in a much better posi- tion to compete in territory-wide elections.// Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Spain Three terrorist attacks on policemen in three regions ~ of northern Spain yesterday morning were clearly aimed ~~.t pro- voking the government, the police, or even the military into overreacting. The attacks--which occurred almost simultaneously in Catalonia, the Basque region, and Galicia--left three police- men dead. Coordinated terrorist action on this scale is unprece- dente and could indicate the participation of more than one terrorist organization. There are persistent rumors that the leftist group GRAPO cooperated with the Basque Fatherland and Liberty Organization in the assassination last month of two military officers in Madrid. Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 If these two organizations have joined forces, they cou. expand the terrorist battlefield from the Basque region to Madrid and Barcelona. This could cause the military--already on edge because of the recent wave of violence in Pamplona and 25X1 the assassinations in Madrid--to press the government to crack 25X1 constitution even more difficult. Soviet troops on board a train yesterday fired on a our car carrying personnel from the US Military Liaison Mis- sion in Potsdam, East Germany. Four of the 10 rounds fired hit the vehicle but the Mission personnel were not injured. The incident occurred about 60 kilometers northwest of Berlin. The Mission has recommended that the Chief of Staff, US Army in Europe, protest the incident to the Chief of Staff, Group of Soviet Forces, Germany. Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 Top Secret (Security Classification) 1 1 Top Secret (Security Classification) ~ ~ Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010050-4 ~