NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010072-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2005
• Sequence Number: 72
• Publication Date: September 12, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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0 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 01
Tuesday 1.2 September 1978 CG NIDC 78/213 0
0 1 On file Department of Agriculture
release instructions apply. 0
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
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1 Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 12 September 1978.
The N ID Cable is for the purpose ot .in orming
senior o i als.
CONTENTS
NICARAGUA: Situation Report
IRAN: Troops and Tanks Patrol
GREECE-USSR: Rallis' Visit
CHILE: Anniversary Speech
USSR: Harvest New Record Crop
BRIEF:
Poland
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NICARAGUA: Situation Report
I I Sandinista guerrilla attacks, which began in Managua
and several other Nicaraguan cities Saturday night, are contin-
uing with various degrees of intensity in at least four provin-
cial cities. The Somoza government has declared a 30-day state
of siege in EsteZi and Masaya and has launched operations to
regain control of the cities. President Somoza will not risk
weakening his defenses in Managua, however, so the fighting
could continue for several days.
I The guerrilla strikes and the fear created by the in-
crease violence have helped the two-week-old national work
stoppage recapture some of its strength.
The private sector, however, may be facing major fi-
nancia problems. The strike is also hurting the government
economically, but foreign firms are expected to corn l with the
government's request for advance tax payments.
IRAN: Troops and Tanks Patrol
I Tehran is relatively quiet as troops and tanks patrol
t e,streets.
Under martial law, newspapers and photographs are
being censored. A considerable number of opposition figures
are. under arrest, as are several businessmen and at least one
former cabinet member apparently charged with corruption.
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A day of mourning scheduled yesterday for those 25X1
killed on 8 September seems to have passed without significant
incident in Tehran, but according to the press five people
were killed in clashes in other cities.
GREECE-USSR: Rallis' Visit
Greek Foreign Minister George Rallis completed a
seven-day visit to the USSR on Sunday. The visit, the first
by a Greek foreign minister since the establishment of rela-
tions between the two countries in 1924, is part of Prime
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Minister Karamanlis' effort to normalize Greece's historic-
ally cool, relations with the Soviets. Soviet Premier Kosygin
has invited KaramanZis to visit Moscow.
Most Greeks viewed the trip as a way to show the
, West that Greece cannot be taken for granted and to counter
their Turkish rivals, who have moved faster in broadening
their ties to Moscow.
I The Greeks and Soviets signed a cultural and a
consular agreement and apparently agreed to look into greater
cooperation in such areas as energy and trade. Soviet Foreign
Minister Gromyko also stressed the desirability of greater
"political cooperation. 11
The statements of Soviet leaders and a communique
however, gave only an equivocal endorsement
esterday
issued
,
y
of the Greek position on the Cyprus dispute, and made no men-
tion of an earlier Soviet proposal for an international con-
ference to deal with the Cyprus issue--a suggestion vehemently
opposed by Turkey. The Soviet position on the Aegean dispute
was also equivocal; Soviet interests and positions on this
problem coincide more with those of Turkey.
I I During his meeting with Rallis, Kosygin extended an
invitation for Karamanlis to visit Moscow. The visit is likely
to take place sometime next year and will be preceded by a
visit to Athens by Gromyko. To demonstrate` the improvement in
Soviet-Greek relations, two Greek destroyers yesterday left for
a goodwill visit to Odessa; the Soviets will reciprocate with
a naval visit to Piraeus in October. These are the first such
visits since World War II.
CHILE: Anniversary Speech
In a major speech yesterday marking the fifth anni-
~versary of the military overthrow of the Allende government,
ident Pinochet said that a new constitution would
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hil
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be submitted to the voters next year, but that elections under
the new constitution to create a civilian government would not
be held until 1985.
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I As he has done in previous anniversary addresses,
inoc e discussed the nation's social and economic situation
and its international relations. He touched on a number of sen-
sitive subjects, including the Letelier case.
have no helped US-Chilean relations, but he saw some hopeful
signs. The Chilean Government, he said, has cooperated on the
Letelier case and attaches great importance to efforts by both
governments to keep the case in the judicial sector and out of
the political arena "where interested parties have sought to
push both countries."
Pinochet asserted that US "interventionist tendencies"
25X1 On the Beagle Channel dispute, Pinochet said Chile
a entered into talks with Argentina in good faith in the hope
of finding a solution. He added, however, that Chile will de-
fend its sovereignty rights and that its national defense was
strong enough to meet any "foreign agression
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USSR: Harvest New Record Crop
//The USSR is likely to harvest a record grain
crop of more than 224 million tons this year, at least 15 per-
cent more than in 1977 and somewhat more than in the previous
record year. The US Department of Agriculture expects that its
estimate of Soviet grain production of 220 million tons could
be exceeded if weather for harvesting the remaining crop is
favorable. Unless the Soviet crop is considerably in excess of
224 million tons, we expect Moscow to purchase 15 million to
20 million tons of grain for delivery during the 1978-79 mar-
keting year.//
//Most Soviet crop regions have done well this
year; in most years, one part of the country experiences a
good harvest while another part suffers from adverse weather
conditions. We now anticipate average or above-average yields
in most areas, the result of this season's ample soil moisture.//
//Roughly two-thirds of the Soviet grain area, and
an even larger portion of the total grain output, has been har-
vested. Rainy weather during harvesting has lowered grain quality
in some areas, but overall the pace of the harvest is close to
the average of the past few years.//
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main generally less favorable than for grain crops, the result
of this season's cool weather and sometimes excessive moisture
conditions. Cotton production is likely to be near a record,
but output of potatoes, sugar beets, vegetables, and sunflower
seeds probably will fall short of 1978 plan levels.//
//Prospects for the other major Soviet crops re-
//The estimate of Soviet import requirements
of
15
million to 20 million tons of grain is based on Soviet
plans
for
expanding the livestock sector. Moscow is in a strong
balance
of
payments position and should have little difficulty in
financ-
ing
such imports, which at current prices would be worth
between
$1.5 billion and $2 billion.//
buy at least 6 million tons of US corn and wheat annually and
may purchase as much as 8 million tons without prior consulta-
tion.//
year increases Soviet flexibility in planning and executing the
grain buying program. We believe the Soviets are unlikely to
come to the US for more than 8 million tons. Under the terms of
the US-USSR Long-Term Grain Agreement, Moscow is committed to
//The relatively high level of world supplies this
non-US wheat and 4.5 million to 5.0 million tons of coarse grains
will be available for export to the Soviet Union--mainly from
Argentina, Canada, Australia, and the EC. To date about 2 mil-
lion to 2.5 million tons of non-US grain have been ordered by
the USSR for delivery in the 1979 marketing year.//
//We expect that 5.5 million to 6 million tons of
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flour by 58 percent--a much larger increase than any imposed
Poland is continuing to raise prices on selected con-
sumer goa s. Last week, the regime boosted the price of potato
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so far this year. Although potato flour is not important in the
Polish diet, the price increase will reinforce the population's
pessimism about their economic future.
I I Consumer price increases began in March, when the
governmen raised gasoline and oil prices by an average of 20
percent--the first significant price increase for consumer
goods since the abortive attempt to raise meat prices in June
1976. This was followed by a 25-percent price hike for alco-
holic beverages and a 20-percent increase for meat'sold in
"commercial" shops.
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