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December 16, 2016
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May 11, 2005
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September 12, 1978
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AMW 1 1AW AW H roveaFl 114 J ase 1UU0/Ub!U9-'-GTK TO: 1 NAME A ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 2 3 4 ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPARE REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION COMMENT FILE RETURN CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE REMARKS: FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO. DATE RDP79T00975AO30800010W2-0 op Secret- (Security Classification) 25X CONTROL NO. 0 25 0 0 0 Access to this document will be restricted to 0 those approved for the following specific activities: 0 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 01 Tuesday 1.2 September 1978 CG NIDC 78/213 0 0 1 On file Department of Agriculture release instructions apply. 0 0 A- 25X1 0 0 0 NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions Top Secret 0 Approved For Release 2005/06/09: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30A+00'f fAsification) 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010072-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010072-0 Approved For b0010072-0 25X1 25X1 1 Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 12 September 1978. The N ID Cable is for the purpose ot .in orming senior o i als. CONTENTS NICARAGUA: Situation Report IRAN: Troops and Tanks Patrol GREECE-USSR: Rallis' Visit CHILE: Anniversary Speech USSR: Harvest New Record Crop BRIEF: Poland Approved For Rele Page 1 Page 1 Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 25X1 Approved For Relea~e 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975A01i0800010072-0 25X1 NICARAGUA: Situation Report I I Sandinista guerrilla attacks, which began in Managua and several other Nicaraguan cities Saturday night, are contin- uing with various degrees of intensity in at least four provin- cial cities. The Somoza government has declared a 30-day state of siege in EsteZi and Masaya and has launched operations to regain control of the cities. President Somoza will not risk weakening his defenses in Managua, however, so the fighting could continue for several days. I The guerrilla strikes and the fear created by the in- crease violence have helped the two-week-old national work stoppage recapture some of its strength. The private sector, however, may be facing major fi- nancia problems. The strike is also hurting the government economically, but foreign firms are expected to corn l with the government's request for advance tax payments. IRAN: Troops and Tanks Patrol I Tehran is relatively quiet as troops and tanks patrol t e,streets. Under martial law, newspapers and photographs are being censored. A considerable number of opposition figures are. under arrest, as are several businessmen and at least one former cabinet member apparently charged with corruption. 25X1 A day of mourning scheduled yesterday for those 25X1 killed on 8 September seems to have passed without significant incident in Tehran, but according to the press five people were killed in clashes in other cities. GREECE-USSR: Rallis' Visit Greek Foreign Minister George Rallis completed a seven-day visit to the USSR on Sunday. The visit, the first by a Greek foreign minister since the establishment of rela- tions between the two countries in 1924, is part of Prime Approved For ReI4 25X1 Approved Fc Minister Karamanlis' effort to normalize Greece's historic- ally cool, relations with the Soviets. Soviet Premier Kosygin has invited KaramanZis to visit Moscow. Most Greeks viewed the trip as a way to show the , West that Greece cannot be taken for granted and to counter their Turkish rivals, who have moved faster in broadening their ties to Moscow. I The Greeks and Soviets signed a cultural and a consular agreement and apparently agreed to look into greater cooperation in such areas as energy and trade. Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko also stressed the desirability of greater "political cooperation. 11 The statements of Soviet leaders and a communique however, gave only an equivocal endorsement esterday issued , y of the Greek position on the Cyprus dispute, and made no men- tion of an earlier Soviet proposal for an international con- ference to deal with the Cyprus issue--a suggestion vehemently opposed by Turkey. The Soviet position on the Aegean dispute was also equivocal; Soviet interests and positions on this problem coincide more with those of Turkey. I I During his meeting with Rallis, Kosygin extended an invitation for Karamanlis to visit Moscow. The visit is likely to take place sometime next year and will be preceded by a visit to Athens by Gromyko. To demonstrate` the improvement in Soviet-Greek relations, two Greek destroyers yesterday left for a goodwill visit to Odessa; the Soviets will reciprocate with a naval visit to Piraeus in October. These are the first such visits since World War II. CHILE: Anniversary Speech In a major speech yesterday marking the fifth anni- ~versary of the military overthrow of the Allende government, ident Pinochet said that a new constitution would P hil res ean C be submitted to the voters next year, but that elections under the new constitution to create a civilian government would not be held until 1985. Approved F4 25X1 25X1 Approved For Re! 25X1 25X1 I As he has done in previous anniversary addresses, inoc e discussed the nation's social and economic situation and its international relations. He touched on a number of sen- sitive subjects, including the Letelier case. have no helped US-Chilean relations, but he saw some hopeful signs. The Chilean Government, he said, has cooperated on the Letelier case and attaches great importance to efforts by both governments to keep the case in the judicial sector and out of the political arena "where interested parties have sought to push both countries." Pinochet asserted that US "interventionist tendencies" 25X1 On the Beagle Channel dispute, Pinochet said Chile a entered into talks with Argentina in good faith in the hope of finding a solution. He added, however, that Chile will de- fend its sovereignty rights and that its national defense was strong enough to meet any "foreign agression 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 USSR: Harvest New Record Crop //The USSR is likely to harvest a record grain crop of more than 224 million tons this year, at least 15 per- cent more than in 1977 and somewhat more than in the previous record year. The US Department of Agriculture expects that its estimate of Soviet grain production of 220 million tons could be exceeded if weather for harvesting the remaining crop is favorable. Unless the Soviet crop is considerably in excess of 224 million tons, we expect Moscow to purchase 15 million to 20 million tons of grain for delivery during the 1978-79 mar- keting year.// //Most Soviet crop regions have done well this year; in most years, one part of the country experiences a good harvest while another part suffers from adverse weather conditions. We now anticipate average or above-average yields in most areas, the result of this season's ample soil moisture.// //Roughly two-thirds of the Soviet grain area, and an even larger portion of the total grain output, has been har- vested. Rainy weather during harvesting has lowered grain quality in some areas, but overall the pace of the harvest is close to the average of the past few years.// Approved For R*Iease 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975A03 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved Fc 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 main generally less favorable than for grain crops, the result of this season's cool weather and sometimes excessive moisture conditions. Cotton production is likely to be near a record, but output of potatoes, sugar beets, vegetables, and sunflower seeds probably will fall short of 1978 plan levels.// //Prospects for the other major Soviet crops re- //The estimate of Soviet import requirements of 15 million to 20 million tons of grain is based on Soviet plans for expanding the livestock sector. Moscow is in a strong balance of payments position and should have little difficulty in financ- ing such imports, which at current prices would be worth between $1.5 billion and $2 billion.// buy at least 6 million tons of US corn and wheat annually and may purchase as much as 8 million tons without prior consulta- tion.// year increases Soviet flexibility in planning and executing the grain buying program. We believe the Soviets are unlikely to come to the US for more than 8 million tons. Under the terms of the US-USSR Long-Term Grain Agreement, Moscow is committed to //The relatively high level of world supplies this non-US wheat and 4.5 million to 5.0 million tons of coarse grains will be available for export to the Soviet Union--mainly from Argentina, Canada, Australia, and the EC. To date about 2 mil- lion to 2.5 million tons of non-US grain have been ordered by the USSR for delivery in the 1979 marketing year.// //We expect that 5.5 million to 6 million tons of 25X1 I 25X1 flour by 58 percent--a much larger increase than any imposed Poland is continuing to raise prices on selected con- sumer goa s. Last week, the regime boosted the price of potato Approved F Approved For Release 4005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010072-0 25X1 so far this year. Although potato flour is not important in the Polish diet, the price increase will reinforce the population's pessimism about their economic future. I I Consumer price increases began in March, when the governmen raised gasoline and oil prices by an average of 20 percent--the first significant price increase for consumer goods since the abortive attempt to raise meat prices in June 1976. This was followed by a 25-percent price hike for alco- holic beverages and a 20-percent increase for meat'sold in "commercial" shops. 25X1 25X1 Approved For ReleasIe 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO308QO010072-0 / - 0 1%rJe For Release 2005/06/09 Cret CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010072-0 (Security Classification) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 r 1 1 Top Secret (Securff Cri cjt46eelease 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010072-0 0 Aw 'Aw Idw Adw Aw 'Aw 'Aw I"r I"r