CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 2
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday 2 October 19713 CG NIDC 78/230
A&
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, 2 October 1978
T e NID Cable is for the purpose o informi
ng
senior US o icials.
LEBANON:
Situation Update
Page
1
CHINA:
New Province Chief
Page
,1
SWEDEN: Policy on Nuclear Plants
Page
2
UNITED KINGDOM: North Sea Oil
Page
3
BRIEF'
Page
5
Canada
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LEBANON: Situation Update
hting continued in Beirut yesterday despite the
Fi
g
cease-fire negotiated by Syrian President Assad and Lebanese
President Sarkis on Saturday.
The US Embassy in Beirut believes that the upsurge of
this weekend was deliberately sparked by the Maronite
htin
fi
g
g
militias to dissuade Sarkis from renewing the mandate of the
Syrian-dominated Arab Deterrent Force and to attempt to press
the US into acting on proposals for an international conference
to deal with the Lebanese problem. The Maronites have long
favored having other countries become involved in the problem.
//The heavy fighting on Saturday spread far beyond
the usual bounds of past Syrian-Maronite clashes. The militias
opened fire on the Syrians in and around the. capital with heavy
artillery deployed in mountain villages north. of Beirut.//
//The Syrians responded by shelling the Maroni.te
towns of Antilyas, Ad Dubayyah, Brummana, and Bikfayya. Accord-
ing to one report, the Syrians also shelled Juniyah, the Maro-
nite-held port through which arms shipments arrive from Israel.
Reports'that the Syrians tried to overrun the militia strong-
hold of Al Hadath were apparently inaccurate.//
According to the US Embassy, the militias are rein-
eir positions in the mountain villages. They report-
forcin
g
edly moved ammunition and additional artillery pieces into An-
d b
t
y
e
tilyas yesterday. According to a militia spokesman quo
the Reuter news agency, militia commanders have ordered an of-
F_
fensi.ve against the Syrian forces.
NSA-
CHINA: New Province Chief
The Chinese Leadership has replaced the chief of
Liaoning Province in China's northeast. Peking has now ousted
17 of 29 province chiefs since the arrest of the leftist "gang
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of four" in October 1976. The Leadership change in Liaoning
follows a week-Long inspection tour of the three northeastern
provinces Last month by party vice chairman Teng Hsiao-ping and
reflects Teng's efforts to remove provincial bosses he suspects
are not personally committed to him or to his pragmatic poli-
cies. The northeast was a hotbed of anti-Teng sentiment in
1976; all three provinces now have new leaders.
The northeast, and Liaoning in particular, has long
been an area of special concern to the leadership in Peking.
Immediately following the arrest of the "gang of four," Liaon-
ing was regarded by Peking as second only to Shanghai as a left-
ist stronghold. Party chairman Hua Kuo-feng inspected the north-
east in the spring of 1977 and made a stop in Liaoning last May.
The ability of Tseng Shao-shan, Liaoning's former
boss, to outlast the "gang of four" by nearly two years strongly
suggests he had powerful supporters of his own. These men
probably were two members of the Politburo who have run the
Shenyang Military Region of which Liaoning is a part--former
commander Chen Hsi-lien, who now heads the Peking Military
Region, and Shenyang's current commander Li Te-sheng. The shake-
up in Liaoning, however, raises questions about their continued
political influence. Neither man seems to be in any personal
political difficulty at the moment. Li presided over the recep-
tion at which the new Liaoning boss was officially revealed.
Liaoning's new boss, Jen Chung-i, was sent into the
province in early 1977 and seems to be a staunch ally of Teng
Hsiao-ping. Upon Teng's return from the northeast last month,
People's Daily printed an article by Jen that strongly en-
dorsed Teng's policy of de-emphasizing the theories of Mao
Tse-tung as the basis for policy decisions.
SWEDEN: Policy on Nuclear Plants
Swedish Prime Minister Falldin averted a breakup of
.Sweden's three-party coalition government by announcing on
Friday that the Loading of two nuclear reactors, postponed
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since February, would be delayed again. Negotiations among
the three parties on this issue stretched a week beyond their
self-imposed deadline of 21 September, but FalZdin's announce-
ment should prevent a possible parliamentary crisis when the
Riksdag opens tomorrow.
The issue of whether Sweden should fully implement
rogram has repeatedly threatened to bring
ower
p
i s nuclear p
down the coalition since its formation two years ago. Falldin's
Center Party promised to dismantle the nuclear power industry
during its successful election campaign in 1976. The other
coalition partners support nuclear power production so long as
the power companies take strong safety precautions.
The government's temporizing increases the possibility
that nuclear power will be an issue in the parliamentary elec-
tions scheduled for next September. The opposition Social Demo-
crats initiated Sweden's nuclear power program when they led
the government in 1975. They, however, have not fully exploited
the issue, in part because the party is divided on the question.
According to Falldin, the government will not permit
the reactors to be loaded until the power companies implement
further safety measures at rock cavern sites designated to re-
ceive nuclear waste for permanent storage. The government will
authorize the companies to operate the reactors when they demon-
strate they have achieved specified levels of safety--the most
stringent in the world, according to Falldin.
overnment moved closer to accepting additional
The
g
plants by approving a reprocessing contract between the Swedish.
power companies and a company in France and by agreeing to store
nuclear waste at a central facility. Falldin had delayed approv-
ing these measures.
UNITED KINGDOM: North Sea Oil
/The UK apparently wants. to hold down. oil pro-
duction after 1982 in order to extend Britain's era of energy
independence. The get_the-oil_flowing attitude has given way
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to emphasis on such issues as the purchase of British-made oiZ-
field equipment, conservation of associated gas, safety and en-
vironmental consideration, and full establishment of the Brit-
ish National Oil Corporation in North Sea operations. While not
intended to do so, recent tax changes will also dampen explora-
tion activity.//
//A buildup from current output of about 1.2 mil-
lion barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day or so by
1983 seems assured. Production much beyond this level will de-
pend, to a large extent, on the government's depletion policy.
Self-sufficiency would be achieved at an output of 1.9 million
barrels per day.//
//Although output is likely to begin dropping off
at some of the older fields, new field development and develop-
ment at the fields now about ready to produce will provide
sizable additions to British production in the next four to
eight years.//
//According to the US Embassy, British Government
officials and even British executives working for US-owned
oil companies believe that a lower rate of production and a
smaller-net oil export surplus would be in Britain's interest.
British officials believe that the price of oil may increase
enough to make leaving the oil in the ground for a longer
period economically rational.//
//In the meantime, a smaller oil surplus would
mean less upward pressure on the pound. An extended period of
oil self-sufficiency would enchance Britain's international
political position and make England less dependent on the coal
miners.//
//The shift in public policy could be reversed
if the British economic situation deteriorated to the point
where further stimulus was required.
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//Canada continues to refuse to allow an increase
in natural gas exports to the US despite its growing oversupply
of the fuel. Official reserves have jumped 24 percent in the
last five years as financial incentives and higher domestic
prices encouraged exploration and development. Domestic gas de-
mand has been stagnant; officials in Alberta Province and Cana-
dian producers are seeking government permission to boost ex-
ports. Canada now supplies about 5 percent of US annual consump-
tion.//
the Alcan
to the US
eliminate
//Advanced construction of the southern legs of
gas pipeline would allow producers to increase exports
by some 500 billion cubic feet per year by 1981 and
current surplus productive capacity.//
//Ottawa, however, seems determined to conserve its
domestic resources and to reduce its dependence on foreign oil.
Along with limits on gas exports to the US, the. federal govern-
ment hopes to substitute gas for oil in eastern markets by de-
regulating domestic gas prices in the expectation that prices
would fall. The producing companies argue that federal policies
are based on overestimates of demand and underestimates of sup-
ply.
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