NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010026-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: October 17, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Tuesday 17 October 1978 CG NIDC 78/242
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 17 October 1978.
11
The ID Cable is tor the purpose ot intorming
CONTENTS
USSR - SOUTHEAST ASIA: Firyubin
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JAPAN: Ohira - Fukuda
Japanese Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General
era s decision last weekend to break his political truce with
Prime Minister Fukuda by formally announcing his candidacy in
the ruling party's presidential election--in effect, the contest
for prime minister--reflects Ohira's desire to boost the momentum
of his campaign in time for the party's national primary next
month. Both public opinion and sentiment among Liberal Democratic
Party leaders have been moving in Fukuda's direction, although
the election's outcome remains uncertain.
will be conducted. Unlike previous elections when only the party
Diet members voted for the president, this year the candidates
must first compete in a nationwide primary where all dues-paying
party members--some 1.5 million--will vote. The top two vote-
getters in the November primary will then compete in a second,
final election by the Liberal Democratic Dietmen.
Much of this uncertainty arises from the new rules--
adopted following the Lockheed scandal--under which the election
I I Fukuda, who has held the domestic limelight for the
as several months, seems to have the edge over his rival.
Whether he can keep his lead, however, will depend in part on
his ability to attract the help of other party faction leaders,
like Liberal Democratic Executive Board Chairman Nakasone, in
turning out the primary vote.
25X1 I IFor his part, Ohira is counting on the backing of former
Prime Minister Tanaka, his primary party ally and the leader of
one of the largest factions. Ohira's fortunes depend directly on
vigorous grass-roots campaigning by Tanaka's group and others in
order to help him overcome Fukuda's advantages as an incumbent.
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Private comments by Liberal Democratic leaders suggest
that Ohira's backing in the party has been slipping in the past
few months. By announcing his candidacy, Ohira almost certainly
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hopes to stem that perception as well as to give himself an op-
portunity to chat e Fukuda openly on the issues before next
month's election.
USSR - SOUTHEAST ASIA: Firyubin
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Firyubin, who oversees
Soviet policy in Southeast Asia, is expected to visit all coun-
tries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations later this
month. His trip is intended to support recent Vietnamese diplo-
macy in the region and to test non-Communist Southeast Asian
receptivity to greater Soviet involvement in light of recent
Chinese treatment of Vietnam. Firyubin probably will be received
warily. Most Southeast Asians will resent his acting as a stalk-
ing horse for the Vietnamese, and most will respond cautiously
to any Soviet blandishment.
4 Firyubin is likely to support Vietnam's version of
its ispu e with China and Cambodia and to urge his hosts to
respond favorably to Vietnamese initiatives for better bilateral
relations. He probably will claim some credit for Vietnam's re-
cent adoption of a more positive attitude toward ASEAN and per-
haps again suggest that ASEAN find ways to allow Vietnamese
participation in that organization.
I Although Soviet propagandists in recent years have
echoed Vietnam's criticism of ASEAN, the Soviets have held a
basically positive attitude toward it since 1971 when Moscow
decided that it was not a creation of the US or a "lackey" of
the Southeast Asian Treaty Organization.
This is Firyubin's second trip to the area in less
than a year, and it testifies to Moscow's desire to profit from
the fast-breaking developments in the region. Firyubin's earlier
plans to visit Japan, however, have been postponed indefinitely
as a demonstration of Moscow's anger at the conclusion of the
Sino-Japanese Peace Treaty in August.
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The Military Council of the Warsaw Pact began a
four-day meeting in East Germany yesterday to discuss activities
for 1979. Deputy defense ministers from the Warsaw Pact coun-
tries, including Marshal Viktor Kulikov, Commander in Chief of
the Pact, are attending the conference.
The agenda focuses on drafting specific military
proposals for the creation of a Pact-wide military alerting
system, and on training, including scheduled military demon-
strations. The Military Council has normally met twice annu-
ally--spring and fall--since its first meeting in December
1969.
The airlift portion of the Soviets' semiannual troop
rot gan Sunday. Since then, there have been 13 flights
to East Germany. Flights will probably continue for the next
three or four weeks.
Some of the troops involved will travel by rail, but
most will be transported by Soviet civilian aircraft. Last fall,
there were 1,125 round-trip fli hts to Eastern Europe and at
least 54 to Mongolia.
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