NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010068-4
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
12
Document Creation Date: 
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 4, 2006
Sequence Number: 
68
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
November 11, 1978
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010068-4.pdf476.22 KB
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C D M" ..~......._... APPROVAL MENT __._....._ RECDMMENDATIDN~ RETURN cIA-RDP79T00975A03090~~QQf~~Cret (Security Classification) L 1 1 1 1 Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities: 5aturda_y 11 November 1978 CG NIDG 7$L2,~ 1 1 1 NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions 1 Top Secret DIA review(s) completed. ((~~g urftV I s ification Approved For Release 2007/03/07 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030Y30~01 ~J - 25 25X1 gpproved For Release 2007/03/07 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010068-4 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010068-4 Approved For Rel National Intelli ence Daily Cab1,e for Saturday, 11 November 197~r The NID Cable is for the pur~~se o in orm~ng senior U o icials. IRAN: Dim Prospect for Compromise Page 1 AFGHANISTAN: Unrest Continues Page 2 CHINA-CAMBODIA-VIETNAM-THAILAND Page 3 LEBANON: Situation Report Page 4 UNESCO: Information Resolution Pa~~~; 6 BRIEFS Page 7 North Korea Argentina-Chile Approved For Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975~1030900010068-4 Approved For Rele IRAN: Dim Prospect for Compromise The Zeader of the opposition National Front in Iran, Karim an~abi, yesterday took an uncompromising stand against participating in a eoaZition government, further dimming pros- pects for a political compromise with the Shah. Sanjabi's call far the continued use of strikes as the opposition's. weapon against the military government may prompt Prime Minister Azhari to order the arrest of opposition politicians who continue to agitate against the Shah. Azhari thus far has not tried to curb the activities of opposition politicians in the hope they might be persuaded to join a coali- tion government. Sanjabi's hard line confirms that he and his follow- ~ ers are responding to the direction of extremist religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini. Sanjabi returned to Tehran yesterday after conferring with Khomeini, who is in exile in Paris. The arrest of former Prime Minister Hoveyda is another example of the Shah's determination to give the appearance of correcting past abuses. Even so, the disgrace of one of the Shah's former close political associates will tarnish the Shah personally. Hoveyda was charged with corruption, but he had been under fire primarily because of his alleged connection with the Bohai, a sect regarded as heretical by orthodox Muslims. Oil production increased slightly yesterday for. the secon ay in succession. The oil industry an Friday was sched- uled to produce about 1.7 million barrels; normal output is about 6 million barrels per day. The gains in production are credited to the efforts of Navy ersonnel who have been pressed into service in the oilfields. Approved For Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975A030~00010068-4 Approved Ford Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975q,030900010068-4 The tribal rebellion in eastern Afghanistan has es- calate reeentZz~ and has spread to Qandahar Province in the south, but poses ZittZe threat at this time to the government. 2'he extremist Muslim Brotherhood has become more active; it was apparentZrg responsible for several explosions in Kabul Zast meek. So far the miZitarz~ has remained Zoz~aZ to the government, .but a significant further spread of popular unrest could test ~.ts r.~iZZingness to support the leftist regime. Fighting between government troops and Pathan tribes- men iri Laghman, Paktia, and Nangarhar Provinces--all located near Afghanistan's eastern border--broke out soon after the coup last April. By late summer, dissidence had spread to non- Pathans farther north. In the past two months the fighting has escalated, as have government efforts to contain the rebellion. Air attacks have occurred almost daily, and reprisal raids are becoming more common. Late last month, the unrest spread to Qandahar Prov- nce. Americans there reported a 24-hour power outage on 31 October--apparently due to sabotage. The government .seems to Piave the situation in hand; tanks are in evidence in the towns and a 9:00 p.m. curfew is being strictly enforced. Several explosions have been heard in Kabul itself, one close to the US AID compound. The Muslim Brotherhood--a conservative Islamic group that has declared holy war against the "infidel, traitorous, Communist" regime--is suspected of being responsible. The intensified unrest poses little threat to the central government at this time. Although the insurgents may claim occasional successes, the military, with modern equipment-- including aircraft--and better organization and communications, has a decided edge over almost any combination of tribal dissi- dents. The Muslim Brotherhood appears to lack the cohesive leader- ership and support of the armed forces to challenge the regime seriously. Approved For Approved For Rele Widespread popular discontent, however, could easily be exp of ed by the government's domestic and foreign enemies and would almost certainly affect the loyalty of the military-- the mainstay of any Afghan regime. Almost all the officer corps and a significant part of the enlisted men are Pathans--the same ethnic group as most of the rebelling tribes--and their support ,for the regime .will be severely tested if operations against their fellow countrymen and coreli ionists continue to escalate. //Senior Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-ping, in the first authoritative Chinese comment on.the Soviet-VZetnamese treaty of friendship and coo erat~,on has publicly described it as "military" in nature. Teng went on to say the 25X1 treaty ~aiZZ give Vietnam a ree an " in Cambodia and that -China will "keep a close watch on the situation." He further stated China's reaction raiZZ be determined by the extent of Vietnam's "aggression" and felt that Chinese and other South- east Asian leaders should "consult regularly" on the situation.// //The Chinese leader, during his visit to - ember, took the opportunity to warn that Vietnam and the USSR Piave ambitions in the region beyond Cam- bodia and that the treaty serves Soviet strategy to dominate Asia and the Pacific. In discussions in Thailand, Teng asserted that the USSR is reviving its interest in what it used to call. the "Asian collective security system"--a concept aimed at iso- lating China--and he reminded his host of .Thailand's past oppo- sition to this system.// //Teng also urged .that the Thais strengthen relations and increase the level of contacts with Cambodia be- cause.the coming Vietnamese offensive will not be small-scale and "Cambodia needs help."// //Yesterday, as Teng toured Malaysia, Peking issued a stern warning to Hanoi concerning the China-Vietnam border. An authoritative editorial in Peoples Daily said China "will never allow recurrence" of an incident like the one on 1 November in which six Chinese were killed. Peking described the situation as "intolerable" and cautioned that "the Va_??~nam.-~~ ese authorities must not turn a deaf ear to Chinas w~~?nin~..!/ 25X1 Approved For lease 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975A0 0900010068-4 Approved For F~elease 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T0097~ h'le Ten was in Thailand, party Vice W i g I I // Chairman Wang Tung-hing led the highest ranking Chinese delega- tion yet to visit Phnom Penh. The composition of Wang's delega- tion and reports of his activities in Cambodia were designed to send a message of continuing political and economic support for the Phnom Penh regime while playing down military links, and at the same time bolster Teng Hsiao-pings efforts to por- tray Cambodia and China as victims of Vietnamese aggression and "SoJiet hegemony."// ve no indication of what specific is- h a I I//We sues were discussed in talks between the Chinese and Cambodians, but there is one sign that they did not go entirely smoothly. Although the atmosphere was described as one of "extreme cor- diality," Phnom Penh quoted Wang as saying the talks were "frank"--a term normally used by Communist media to indicate disagreement. Peking, in its version of Wang's remarks, did not use this term.// //Peking appears to be positioning itself to maintain maneuvera ility in the Vietnam-Cambodia dispute. On the one hand, through public statements, the Chinese appear to be trying to exploit Asian reactions to the Soviet- Vietnamese alliance in order to build support for Cambodia and thus to impose political limits on the extent of Vietnam's ef- forts against Cambodia in the coming months.// On the other hand, Chinese officials have ~ ~ // been playing down the possibility of sending troops to Cambodia. They have nevertheless suggested there may be more "incidents" along the China-Vietnam border. Peking, while stopping short of an irrevocable commitment to defend the Phnom Penh regime, is attem tin to maintain its credibility as Cambodia's ally. LEBANON: Situation Report Th cease-~zre Zn Beirut is holding despite an out- e ~ break of artillery fire during this week. RivaZrz~ among Maro- nite factions in northern Lebanon and recent attacks aimed at r~overnment officials are threatening the truce. 25X1 25X1 Approved For elease 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975A03 900010068-4 Approved Fq' The cease-fire was marred Wednesday night by exchanges of arts lery and mortar fire between Maronite militiamen and Syrian units in one of the mast serious breaches of the month- old truce. The city was relatively calm Thursday and early Fri- day, and both sides appear to want the cease-fire to hold. In northern Lebanon, tension has increased as a re- sult of incidents allegedly caused by the Syrians and their allies, the followers of former President Sulayman Franjiyah. The Phalangists say Franjiyah's militia attacked a Phalangist- controlled village on Wednesday, killing two and kidnaping an- other. Earlier this week the Phalangists accused the Syrians of sending a patrol into a Phalangist district, despite an agreement not to do so. //The Israelis also are concerned that the Syrians may be planning new violence in the north, perhaps in conjunc- tlon Wlth a move acrainst the Pha 1 aricrP by Fran-i i vah aiir~nnri-r~rc _ 25X6 DIA //The Israelis also report that the Syrians are preparing o build a new road in northern Lebanon capable of 25X1 handling heavy vehicles. The road would shorten the distance between Syria and northern Lebanon and allow the S ri n b ass routes under Christian control.// Approved For Approved For~Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T009~T5A030900010068-4 The outcome of the 20th General Conference of the UN EdueatzonaZ, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in Paris has been jeopardized by the introduction of a draft resolution calling for an action plan to implement "The Neu World Information Order." The draft Baas introduced on Thursday by Tunisian Information Minister Masmoudi, the leading spokesman on communications issues for the nonaligned movement. Some version of the resolution, which is likely to get strong support from most members of the nonaligned group, stands a good chance of being adopted despite HTestern efforts Approved for Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975A~030900010068-4 the imbalance between the information and communication agencies of the developing nations and those of the industrialized world. It gives particular attention to the efforts of the nonaligned countries to free their mass media from the influence of the developed nations' news agencies. The draft also calls for the creation of an open-ended international fund and for a UNESCO- sponsored group of communications experts to implement "The New World Information Order." Approved For Red to prevent its consideration at the conference. Adoption of the resolution raises the prospect of a major confrontation that could result in a reduction of Western financial support to UNESCO. The draft addresses the ostensible need to correct The document specifies that another group of experts , be formed to prepare papers for the World Administrative Radio Conference. The conference, which will take place. next Septem- ber, will reallocate international radio frequencies fox' the first time in 20 years. The nonaligned countries have met pre- viously to form a coordinated position for the conference, where they hope to obtain a larger share of the radio frequencies that they believe are dominated by the developed world. Masmoudi's introduction of the resolution-comes duxing intensive efforts by the Western nations to amend a contentious draft declaration on mass media and threatens the. prospects-for a U5 initiative to create a consultative group to address the communications needs of the developing countries. Masmoudi said that the nonaligned group's acceptance of the Western version of the mass media declaration will depend on Western acquies- cence to his draft. Regardless of the outcome in Paris, the topic of "The New World Information Order" will probably arise at the UN General Assembly later this year. orth Korea has officially protested the newly estab- lished South Korean - US combined forces command in Seoul. Ac- cording to a statement by a Foreign Ministry spokesman, the joint command formed on 7 November is intended to ex~ ~.~ 7 ~ ~- ;,~r=~ w- Approved For Rel Approved For Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00~75A030900010068-4 preparations, and provides further evidence that the US does not intend to withdraw its troops from South Korea. The rhetoric is not harsh by North. Korean standards, however, and a spokes- man's statement by the Foreign Ministry is one of Pyongyang's lowest levels of formal protest. ~~ North Korea has consistently questioned the sincerity of the US withdrawal plan, and it has not acknowledged that the first increment of US ground combat forces is actually preparing to leave South Korea. Last month an infantry battalion of the US 2nd Division was relieved from its forward position and it is scheduled to depart for the US mainland by mid-December. Argentina-Chile Argentina on Thursday announced its willingness to resort to mediation in the Beagle Channel dispute, but at the same time insisted that another stage of bilateral talks should precede any arbitration by a third party. Outside help was first raised several weeks ago by Chile, but Argentina has been re- luctant to go along. Spanish King Juan Carlos, who will visit Buenos Aires in ate November, appears to be a possible choice as mediator, althou h Chile clearl would refer to take the issue to The Hague. Approved Fdr Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975Ap30900010068-4 7 A proved For Release 2007/03/07 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010068-4 Top Secret (Security Classification) A ii R Top Secret (Security ~I~~s~i?lEi ~a~oFnpr Release 2007/03/07 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010068-4