CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010102-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 21, 2007
• Sequence Number: 102
• Publication Date: December 2, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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E"f Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
NSA review completed
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
CG NIDC 78-0280C
1978 25X1
December
Copy r
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Top Secret
CONTENTS
IRAN: Situation Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
IRAN: Alert Memorandum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
ROMANIA: Ceausescu's Speech . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
EC SUMMIT: Economic Cooperation . . . . . . . . . , 10
BAHRAIN: Possible Demonstrations . . . . . . . . . . 12
TAIWAN: Fighter Procurement . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
USSR: Chemical Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
SPAIN-USSR: Continued Interest . . . . . , . . . . , 19
UGANDA: US Trade Embargo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
BRIEFS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
USSR-Cuba
FEATURE ARTICLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
INTERNATIONAL: World Water Problems
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IRAN: Situation Report
Military units in Tehran Zact night used gunfire to
drive off demonstrators who ignored the curfew to observe
the first hours of the holy month of Moharram. Exiled
Shia leader Khomeini may soon leave France for Suria.F-
Hundreds of people who took to the streets to mark
the beginning of Moharram marched through several areas
of Tehran chanting antigovernment slogans. The military
fired rifles and automatic weapons and may have used
tanks or artillery to disperse the crowds. According to
press accounts, there were some casualties, although the
bulk of the reports suggest that most troops fired over
the heads of the people.
Tehran remains very tense. People have hoarded food,
cooking oil, and other supplies in the expectation that
the general strike will last well into the month. Food
was plentiful but expensive yesterday.
Antiforeign sentiment is much higher than in pre-
vious years during Moharram. Several Iranian friends
have warned one US diplomat that his life is in danger
and that he should not identify himself to strangers as
an American. A homemade bomb was thrown into the home of
a US noncommissioned officer but caused no casualties.
A member of Khomeini's entourage in France said on
Thursday that the Shia opposition leader is considering
leaving soon--possibly this weekend--for Damascus, and
the Syrians have allegedly agreed to accept him.
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Top Secret
//The Daily prints excerpts from an Alert Memoran-
dum on the situation in Iran, which takes a Zook at the
position the Shah will be in if he survives the civil
violence this month--and what Iran is likely to face if
he does not. The memorandum was prepared by CIA and co-
ordinated in substance at the working ZeveZ
//In the current very difficult political circum-
stances, there is a good chance that civil unrest will
be sufficiently serious to threaten the survival of the
monarchy.//
//The likely deterioration of the security situa-
tion during Moharram will substantially raise the risk
to Americans in Iran. Manifestations of xenophobia have
occurred during these religious observances in the past.
This year, any antiforeign activity will be especially
likely to take on an anti-American cast, given US sup-
port of the Shah.//
//If the Shah remains in power through Moharram, he
will have won a temporary political and psychological
respite--one that could buy him limited time in which to
pursue efforts to form a civilian coalition government.
He might be able to elicit the cooperation of "neutral"
civilian figures in forming a government of elder states-
men, technocrats, and senior civil servants.//
//Khomeini's views will not change, however, and
the Ayatollah will retain his influence among the masses.
In such a situation, it would be very difficult to get
leaders of the National Front to participate in a coali-
tion government--and only such a government would have a
reasonable chance of reestablishing public trust.//
//The Shah's outlasting'Moharram might also rein-
force the military leadership in its view that only the
Army can keep order. The military therefore may resist
an early return to civilian government and the Shah may
decide to extend its involvement in government beyond
the period either he or the military leadership initially
envisaged.//
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''pop Secret
/Tbe powers and prerogatives of the Shah almost
~5rta.nly will erode in the post-Moharram period. He
?ri?.l be obliged to share power with the military leader-
ship and with the prime minister (whether he is a mili-
'.ar_y officer or a civilian). The monarch's authority
.;ill be further reduced by the impact of corruption
1.ials and other exposures of past abuses.//
//Even if he survives the immediate crisis, there-
ore, the Shah will find it very difficult to implement
,is planned political program or to negotiate a perma-
:tent settlement with his emboldened opposition.//
/If the Shah were to abdicate or be forcibly re-
..,oved, it is more likely that a military regime would
:.acceed him than that he would be succeeded by either
he religious right or the secular left. The military
.i'q'it try to establish its legitimacy by becoming the
.r'-fective power behind a weak regency council or a
fa-
-de of civilian politicians. //
;'/The Shah's abdication at an early stage would
obablv be coordinated with the military leadership and
Ld result in the accession to power of senior offi-
s with views similar in important respects to those
she Shah. Oa the other hand, if the military were to
:cunt a successul coup.-and we have no sound basis on
,hich to predict the stage at which this might happen--
chances would be greater that younger officers with
s ttauitional views would come to power.//
/;/A goverrment would probably attempt ini-
,ally to play on the Shah's ouster to arrange a detente
ith the opposition. In the likely event that this
[wed, we believe that most types of military regime--
ppecially one Led by senior officers--would be more
Disposed than ~-e Shah to use force to quell unrest.///
for l