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25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 r~, 'I, "hector m 1 up /JGcret Intelligence National Intelligence Daily (Cable) .,tarp Plant ra iia\ni .,rata Plant ra iia\ni Top Secret CG NIDC 78-0292C 16 December 25X1 Copy 6 1 3 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 'l'op Secret National Intelligence Daily (Cable) CONTENTS IRAN : Situation Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 NAMIBIA: Election Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 LEBANON: Attack on Maronite Leaders . . . . . . . . 4 BELGIUM: Parliamentary Election . . . . . . . . . 5 THAILAND-LAOS: Diplomatic Relations . . . . . . . . 6 UK: European Monetary System . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 25X1 ZAIRE: Status of African Force . . . . . . . . . . . 8 FEATURE ARTICLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 USSR-CHINA: Weather Modification LATE ITEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 Top Secret IRAN: Situation Report //Prime Minister Azhari's apparent determination to break the strikes plaguing Iran may presage another test of strength between the government and the opposition next weeko// Azhari yesterday ordered all ministries and govern- ment agencies to dismiss any employee not performing his job and said strikers will no longer be paid while they are absent from work. He also ordered an end to all dem- onstrations, either anti- or pro-Shah. 25X1 Ayatollah Khomeini, meanwhile, has appealed to Iran- ians to stop paying taxes and continue to strike until 25X1 the Shah is ousted. The opposition National Front specif- ically called for a national strike on Monday to protest the killing of demonstrators during the past week. //The chance for violence next week has been en- hanced by increased militancy among armed forces offi- cers. Many of them have been chafing under the restric- tions imposed by the Shah on their enforcement of law and order and under the agreement worked out between the government and the opposition. In several cities, the military has been going out of its way to harass anti- Shah demonstrators and has encouraged ro-Shah crowds to attack the opposition.// 25X1 There are continuing reports of unrest within the armed forces, and several incidents have occurred--such as the sabotage of 40 F-5 airplanes and the shootout at a military base, both recently reported in the press. For the most part, however, the military remains at this time predominantly pro-Shah, and many officers seem to be spoiling for a fight with the opposition. 25X1 //Opposition leaders, for their part, are seriously concerned about the military's attitude. One leader has 25X1 protested to US Embassy officers the military's behavior in several towns, especially Esfahan. National Front 25X1 leader Karim Sanjabi has reportedly asked the Sha control the Army and prevent bloodshed.// = Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 The South African Administrator General in Namibia announced late yesterday that the Democratic TurnhaZle Alliance--the political grouping that South Africa fa- vors--won 80 percent of the votes in the election last week for a Namibian constituent assembly. South African L'rime Minister Botha apparently intends to urge the Nami- bian assembly next week to agree to a second election under UN auspices, provided that the UN transitional plan is modified to meet unspecified South African caveats. In accordance with South Africa's plan for propor- tional representation, the Administrator General has as- signed 41 of the 50 assembly seats to the Turnhalle Alli- ance and apportioned the remaining seats among the four independent parties that participated in the election. Three of these parties are predominantly white; most of the predominantly nonwhite parties boycotted the elec- tion because it took place without UN sanction. The Ad- ministrator General plans to convene the assembly next week, as soon as the parties that won assembly seats designate their representatives. South Africa has not specified its demands for modi- fications in the Security Council's transitional program, but it has asserted publicly that the projected UN mili- tary force of 7,500 must be reduced, that troops from any Communist country are unacceptable, and that a UN- sponsored election must be definitely scheduled, instead of being contingent on South African troops withdrawals. Although Botha probably intends to ask the Namibian assembly to agree in principle to the election, he is also likely to press for hardline resolutions concerning the UN military force and other transitional arrangements. Several prominent nonwhite members of the Turnhalle Alli- ance as well as Dirk Mudge, its principal leader, have suggested to Western diplomats that Botha expects to find it easier to use the assembly as a sounding board for his own position because of the large turnout at the polls last week--81 percent of all registered voters. Alliance leaders apparently are confident that they can win a sec- ond election, even if the South-West Africa People's Or- ganization decides to participate. Top Secret 2 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 Top Secret Earlier this week, SWAPO President Sam Nujoma said his group will participate in an election conducted ac- cording to the present UN transitional plan. SWAPO, how- ever, probably would reject any significant modifications of the plan. 3 Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 The cease-fire in Beirut is holding despite an at- iack Thursday night by Leftist Muslim militiamen on three Christian Maronite leaders. Some Maronites want to use the incident to argue that Muslim extremists should be isolated politically, but others may push for military retaliation. The episode has also raised doubts about Saudi Arabia's willingness to keep troops in Lebanon as part of the Arab Deterrent Force; the Christians were 3isiting a hospitalized Saudi diplomat when the attack occurred. The leftist militiamen surrounded American Univer- sity Hospital in an attempt to capture Dany Shamun, mili- tia chief of the National Liberal Party, and two Phalange leaders. The three Maronites were visiting Saudi Ambassa- dor Ali Shair, who was wounded last week when Maronite militiamen fired on his helicopter. The Maronite leaders had come to assure Shair that the attack on him was a mistake and that those responsible would be turned over to government authorities for trial. The leftist gunmen exchanged fire for several hours with Saudi troops and Lebanese policemen who were provid- ing security for the Maronites. Syrian troops and those of the Palestine Liberation Organization finally escorted the Maronite leaders safely back to East Beirut, after the intervention of President Sarkis, Syrian President Assad, Saudi Crown Prince Fahd, PLO Cha rafat, and valid Jumblatt, a leftist Druze leader. Dany Shamun, one of the relatively moderate Maronite readers, hopes to prevent a rise in animosity between the Christian and the Muslim communities as a result of the incident. Hardline Maronites will probably be less con- ciliatory, however, and urge armed retaliation. The Saudi Ambassador was angered by the attack, which he said demonstrated the futility of trying to solve Lebanon's problems. He said he intends to recom- mend the withdrawal of all Saudi troops and Embassy per- sonnel. A Saudi withdrawal, although unlikely, would have serious consequences for Lebanese security. The use of Saudi troops at flashpoints in East Beirut, and Shair's personal mediation efforts, have played a key role in maintaining the cease-fire. Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Top Secret BELGIUM: Parliamentary Election Belgian voters go to the polls tomorrow to choose a government whose major job will be to devise a devolution plan. acceptable to the country's Flemish and Walloon com- munities. Decisions on other pressing issues--economic and defense--wiZZ probably be delayed until some progress is made on resolving the communities problem. Formation of a new government may take several months; the major stumbling block will be the choice of a prime minister. Political leaders are far more interested than the electorate in devolution. Regionalization placed fifth as a pressing national issue in a recent poll, well be- hind economic and social issues. The next government's first order of business, however, will be to address two questions: whether devolution is indeed a desirable goal, and whether the Egmont-Stuyvenberg accords--a blueprint for a devolved Belgium drawn up last winter--is the best means for accomplishing it 25X1 . The main sticking points in any devolution plan will be protecting the Flemish-speaking minority in Brussels if the capital devolves as a separate region and protect- ing the French-speaking minority in the Flemish villages around Brussels~>~h the Flemings want to keep under -- -- '- '--- n r The election will probably not result in any major shifts in party strength. The Flemish Social Christian party will probably receive more votes than any other party. In combination with its French counterparts, this party has dominated Belgian politics in recent years. The Socialists, the second strongest party, may lose votes because of their recent formal split along commu- The next prime minister will probably be a Social Christian. Despite outgoing Prime Minister Tindemans' personal popularity, he has lost much credibility as a leader among his former coalition partners and, to a lesser extent, in his own party. Minister of Defense Vanden Boeynants, who performed well as head of the in- terim government, and Social Christian president Martens 5 Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 THAILAND-LAOS: Diplomatic Relations A Thai patrol boat on the Mekong River, which runs between Thailand and Laos, was fired on and subsequently Seized by Lao soldiers yesterday. This is the second ouch incident in the past few days, although the attacks occurred at different locations. The Lao assaults are a jarring interruption of the generally peaceful conditions that have existed along the river during the past year and come just days before a scheduled visit to Laos by Thailand's Prime Minister Kriangsak. This will be the first visit to Laos by a Thai prime minister while in office and reflects growing cordiality between the two countries. Relatively minor incidents have occurred periodi- cally along the river over the past year, usually in- volving brief exchanges of fire by Lao and Thai soldiers from opposite banks or firing by Lao soldiers on refugees and smugglers crossing the river to Thailand. Both sides have made efforts, however, to minimize the reverbera- tions of such clashes and have worked quietly in diplo- matic channels to reduce their problems along the border. These latest incidents will test Thai patience but, unless such assaults on this scale continue, they will probably not deter Kriangsak from his ambitious diplo- matic campaign. Top Secret 6 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 'Fop Secret UK: European Monetary System //Prime Minister Jack Lynch announced yesterday that Ireland will join the European Monetary System on 1 January. The Irish had been holding back because they were dissatisfied with the amount of financial assistance their EC partners offered them at the Community summit on 4 and 5 December. Since then, West Germany and other EC members have promised Ireland additional aid on a bi- lateral basis.// //With the Irish decision to join, the UK--Ireland's principal trading partner--is the only EC country to re- main outside the European Monetary System. Dublin decided only after much debate to risk the potential adverse con- sequences of breaking the historic link between the Irish pound and the pound sterling. Lynch hopes Britain's pub- licly stated intent to follow a stable exchange rate policy will mean that, in practice, the two currencies can remain on a parity with each other.// 25X1 //Norway and Sweden--both candidates for associate membership in the European Monetary System--have decided against joining. Neither precludes going in at some later date, but both believe they can best maintain exchange rate stability by pegging their currencies to currency baskets representing their most important trading part- ners. Similarly, Austria sees few benefits from associ- ating with the European Monetary System at this time.// 7 Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Zaire's major Western supporters met on Wednesday in Paris to discuss the status of the Inter-African Force in Zaire's Shaba Region. No new assistance was pledged for the force, and the meeting apparently ended inconclu- vively. If additional funds cannot be found to maintain the force, the Senegalese--and probably the Moroccans-- will withdraw their contingents. All parties agreed that the force should remain in Shaba for at least another six months, which the French estimate will cost approximately $10 million, and that a phased withdrawal would be preferable to an abrupt dis- engagement. Belgium and France are particularly concerned that the departure of the troops would result in the flight of foreign technicians who help run Shaba's vital mining complexs, and there are persistent rumors that anti- Mobutu rebels in the Angola-Zambia border region might be tempted to return should the force depart. The Zairian Army also would probably revert to its usual undisciplined behavior. Despite these concerns, the Paris meeting did not reach agreement on how the force could be supported. Con- tributions from Belgium and France have been extremely small, and both believe that the US has at least a "moral commitment" to assist with the cost of the force. The French Director for Africa recently said that French President Giscard intends to raise this point with Presi- dent Carter when they meet in Guadeloupe early next month. During the Paris discussions, it was disclosed that Saudi Arabia had provided $25 million to the French to purchase arms and equipment for the Moroccan contingent. Although Morocco has not indicated its intentions, ru- mors that it will soon withdraw its contingent are wide- spread. Senegal cites several reasons for wanting to remove its troops, but the major reason is financial. Although Paris has now decided to give the Senegalese about $5 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Top Secret million or $6 million, this will not be enough. The Sene- galese have agreed, however, only to rotate their troops-- not to withdraw them--if they are adequately compensated. They have been deeply disappointed over the US refusal to airlift departing Senegalese troops. 25X1 The Moroccan and the Senegalese contingents of 1,500 and 600 troops respectively comprise more than 80 percent of the Inter-African Force and, without them, the force would virtually cease to exist. 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 FEATURE ARTICLE USSR-CHINA: Weather Modification //The USSR and China, the two most active countries in weather modification research, are planning signifi- cant increases in their programs, Both have begun re- search that may lead to attempted modification of major storms, such as typhoons--experiments previously con- ducted only by the US. The quality of the Soviet research is excellent, but that of China is difficult to judge be- cause reported results have not been substantiated. Com- puter support for meteorological programs has been defi- cient in both countries and is the focus of considerable //The Soviet program began in the early 1950s and is now several times larger in funding and personnel than the US civilian and military weather modification re- search programs combined. It is broad in scope and very competently staffed. Its expansion and improvement are likely to accelerate because the Hydrometeorological Service was upgraded to state committee status in March //The first Chinese weather modification experiment- ing took place in the late 1950s and had become extensive by the 1970s. China recently established a new academy that includes the world's first known institute devoted solely to research on artificial weather changes, thus adding to other indications that the Chinese plan a sig- nificantly larger, more centralized, and more scientifi- cally based program.//I 25X1 //In its early years, the Soviet program first con- centrated on clearing fog and clouds from airports and then on hail suppression. The Soviets are currently ex- ploring such areas as precipitation enhancement, thunder- storm dissipation, and lightning suppression.// 25X1 //What is probably the largest Soviet project is intended to raise the level of Lake Sevan in Armenia by increasing rainfall over the watershed. In addition to Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 standard cloud-seeding techniques, the Soviets will em- ploy a novel device called a meteotron, which uses sev- eral jet engines to create convection currents that carry moisture upward, creating clouds.// //Experimental design and instrumentation appear to be the weakest areas of the Soviet program and probably will receive the greatest additional emphasis. The em- ployment of better statistical methods to devise experi- ments and analyze the results would help alleviate the experimental design problem and improve verification techniques. The planned purchase of Western equipment, along with a recent trend toward improved Soviet-designed instruments, will help solve the instrumentation prob- lem.// //In recent years, the Soviets have begun an inten- sive study of typhoons, and they may be seriously consid- ering a typhoon-modification project similar to the US Project Stormfury, which was aimed at altering hurricanes in the Atlantic. This is the only major weather modifica- tion area in which the Soviets have not been active.// //Typhoons are not a major threat to the USSR, but research on the modification of these storms is of high current interest in weather modification research and development, and this probably explains the Soviet in- terest. If the Soviets initiate a typhoon modification project in the Pacific, they probably will encounter some opposition from surrounding countries, just as the US did when discussions were under way to move Project Stormfury to the Pacific.// //China's new weather modification research insti- Lute will be one of several comprising the new Academy of Meteorological Sciences, which was established follow- ing a recent national conference on weather modification. The conference developed a research program extending to 1985 for rainmaking, hail cloud and fog dispersal, and typhoon moderation.// //Research on typhoon modification may have been supported by ships collecting data in the Pacific. To support weather modification research, the new institute will have a modern cloud and fog physics laboratory. Such research has previously been conducted at a variety of institutes, some under military control.// Top Secret 12 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 //Several Chinese experiments in weather modifica- tion took place in the late 1950s and 1960s but were limited mostly to efforts to improve weather conditions unfavorable for agriculture. During the 1970s, Chinese reports indicate that a variety of field experiments in- volving several million individuals took place throughout the country.// //Most of these experiments have been attempts to control or moderate drought and hail conditions using fireworks, crude rockets, cannon, networks of antiair- craft artillery, and aircraft, including radio-controlled model airplanes.// 25X1 //Chinese military aircraft and ground units-have often taken part in field weather experiments in agricul- tural regions. The country's National Defense Scientific and Technical Commission reportedly took over the control and funding of all weather modification research in 1969 and has a program of research at several military weather institutes.// //The Chinese have claimed significant successes in modifying the weather, but they have published no sup- porting data and there has been no verification by non- Chinese experts. There has probably in fact been little precise scientific control or monitoring of the Chinese experiments. It appears that China now plans a more sci- entific approach with improved seeding and test devices.// Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 LATE ITEM Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel an Argentine warship ee is in the disputed Beagle Channel area sug- gest that an Argentine move against one or more of the //The US defense attache in Santiago reports that the Chileans yesterday identified eight Argentine sur- face ships--one aircraft carrier, one cruiser, five de- stroyers, and an oiler--approximately 100 nautical miles east of Nueva Island in the Beagle Channel. They are ex- pected to arrive in the area of Evout and Barnevelt Is- lands some time today.// //These ship movements are consistent with previous reporting regarding Argentine contingency planning for a military initiative. We do not know, however, if the Argentine Government has given the order to commence ac- tion or if the fleet is merely positioning itself in the staging area.// //If Argentina decides to occupy an island or islet, we expect that its fleet will take up blocking and sup- port positions between the three disputed islands in the Beagle Channel--Nueva, Picton, and Lennox--and the Barne- velt and Evout Islands and conduct a heliborne landing on Barnevelt and Evout. The latter action is well within the capabilities of the Argentine forces.// Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9 Top Secret Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/06/18: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010126-9