NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031000180001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 27, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
27 January 1979
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
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USSR: Effects of FueZ Crisis in Armenia . . . . 12
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Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
CIA-RDP79T00975A031
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USSR: Effects of Fuel Crisis in Armenia
The Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic is bearing
the brunt of the two-month halt in Iranian natural gas
deliveries to the USSR. The resulting gas shortage
totals nearly 1 billion cubic feet a day--about one-
fourth of the area's energy consumption--and is forcing
Moscow to convert gas burning facilities to oil, cut
back in energy consumption, and manipulate energy ex-
ports.
The halt in gas imports has forced industries and
central heating plants in Armenia's major cities such
as Yerevan to cut back sharply on heat supply. Neigh-
boring republics--Georgia and Azerbaijan--are also feel-
ing the effects of the fuel shortages during this colder
than normal winter.
Moscow, apparently not expecting a quick resump-
tion of gas shipments, is instituting emergency measures
to find fuel supplies. Underground gas storage reserves
are being drawn down. Pipeline flows have been reversed,
bringing in gas from the north. In addition, electric
power plants and boilers are being converted from gas
to oil.
The conversion of industrial boilers and heating
plants from gas- to oil-fired systems is fairly simple
technically but could take a month or more. Shortages
of necessary valves, pumps, storage tanks, and skilled
workers are delaying the conversion process. In contrast,
many large power plants in the region are designed to
burn either fuel and can be switched from gas to oil
quickly.
The substitution of oil for gas in the Transcau-
casus Republics during this fuel crisis is likely to
reduce oil exports from the Black Sea port of Batumi
by about 40,000 to 50,000 barrels per day. The Soviets,
however, will continue to honor their contracts for
oil deliveries to the West and could offset any localized
reductions by stepping up shipments from other nonaf-
fected Black Sea ports.
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OVERNIGHT REPORTS
(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from
the production offices of NFAC.)
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France,-.Iran
The US Embassy in Paris reports that while the
French Government continues to maintain a low profile
on Iran, it now is privately expressing a new-found
respect for Prime Minister Bakhtiar and is increasingly
disenchanted with Ayatollah Khomeini and his chances to
attain the dominant political role. The Embassy adds
that Foreign Minister Francois-Poncet developed these
themes yesterday in a backgrounder for members of the
US media. In a talk with an Embassy official on Thursday,
one of Francois-Poncet's deputies 25X6
I admitted that Bakhtiar has proven to
be tougher and more able politically than the French had
anticipated.
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North Korea - South Korea
Pyongyang radio today reported a counterproposal to
yesterday's South Korean statement calling for a working-
level meeting prior to June--North Korea's suggested
date--on prospects for reunification. The North Koreans
are now agreeable to holding such a session "as early in
April as possible." This latest statement, which again
was issued in the name of the Fatherland Front, acknowl-
edges that "authorities" from each side should partici-
pate in the meeting and asserts that the Front also will
invite "parties and mass organizations at home and
abroad."
COMMENT: The timing of the rapid exchange of pro-
posals reflects the high interest both sides have in
projecting a flexible image on the eve of the visit to
the US by Chinese Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping (Teng Hsiao-
ping). Pyongyang's bid to control the composition of
the South Korean delegation will be difficult for Seoul
to accept. F7 I
USSR-Italy
The US Embassy in Rome reports that Soviet Foreign
Minister Gromyko, who yesterday completed an official
visit to Italy, raised Soviet concerns over Western arms
sales to China on Thursday with Prime Minister Andreotti.
The Prime Minister said that such sales tend to create
difficulties for the seller and made pointed reference
to the Soviets' experiences with Egypt and Somalia.
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Israel-Romania
Jerusalem radio reported yesterday that ministerial-
level economic talks between Israel and Romania will 25X1
open in Jerusalem next week. According to the broadcast,
the Israelis will be seeking to reduce their trade defi-
cit with Romania--more than $26 million last year.
COMMENT: Although Romania accounts for an insig-
nificant share of Israel's overall trade, this Zink does.
have some political value for both sides.
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Top Secret
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