NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031000180002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 27, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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_ _ irt.? liteu e
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National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily (Cable)
Contents
Situation Reports
Peg no.
Rhodesia: Auxi Ziury Forces . . . . . . .
Turkey:
inet ;shakeup . . . . . . .
Special Analysis
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Rhodesia: h/! L F r;'e ferendum. . . . . . . . . . . 12
Overnight Reports
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SITUATION REPORTS
Prime Minister Bakhtiar's new, harder Line is prob-
ably intended as a show of force to the opposition to
pressure AyatoZZah Khomeini into some concessions.
Bakhtiar doubtless is being encouraged by the military
to pursue this Line. The ban on demonstrations has re-
sulted in the worst violence in Tehran since the Shah
Left Iran.
Bakhtiar in the last week has taken numerous
measures to demonstrate his resolve, including:
-- Arresting dissident journalists.
-- Reforming and reconstituting SAVAK.
-- Rallying his own supporters.
-- Ordering the military, to be more aggressive.
Soldiers opened fire on antigovernment demonstrators
in Tehran, Sanandaj, and Tabriz yesterday. A mass demon-
stration is scheduled for today in Tehran to mark the
anniversary of the Prophet Mohammad's death and protest
the delay in Kh.omeini's homecoming. The government has
granted permission for the demonstration.
Bakhtiar must carefully avoid overplaying his hand
in the next few days. He clearly recognizes that his
get-tough tactics may lead to even more widespread
violence. Large-scale bloodshed could cow some in the
opposition 4ut will not break Khomeini's hardcore
followers.
If Bakhtiar continues to bar Khomeini's return,
Khomeini will probably stand by his well-established
strategy of gradually wearing down the government and
the military with demonstrations and strikes. The
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loyalty and cohesion of the military continues to weaken--
several hundred Air Force personnel joined a
demonstr t' pro-Khomeini
a i
//Since assuming power earlier this month, Bakhtiar
has moved rapidly to distance himself from the unpopular
elements of the Shah's foreign policy. Bakhtiar has:
-- Ordered the withdrawal of Iran's troops in
Oman; the Omani Foreign Minister says they
will leave within a month.
on in Esfahan yesterday.
Foreign Policy
Promised to cease all oil exports to Israel and
South Africa.
-- Promised to end military cooperation with CENTO.
-- Replaced many of Iran's ambassadors abroad.//
We expect Bakhtiar will continue to move Iran
toward a nonaligned foreign policy under pressure from
his domestic foes. He will keep open Iran's ties to the
West but is likely to follow a more independent course.
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ALGERIA: Presidential Selection Process Begins
//Algeria's only political party, the National Lib-
eration Front, meets today to begin the formal process
of nominating a successor to President Boumediene. The
choice in fact has probably already been made by the
eight-man National Council of the Revolution--the coZ-
Zegial body that has ruled Algeria since Boumediene be-
came incapacitated--in consultation with key army of-
ficers. The selection will be rubber-stamped in due
course by the party congress.//
No front-runner for president is discernible. The
power brokers may have reached an impasse over the
selection of one of the prominent candidates, which may
have led them to choose a lesser known figure outside
the regime's inner circle.
//Informed speculation since Boumediene's death has
focused on five Council members: party chief Yahiaoui,
Foreign Minister Bouteflika, Interior Minister
Abdelghani, former gendarmerie commander Colonel
Bencherif, and 2nd Military Region Commander Colonel
Bendiedid.
//To lend an aura of popular participation to the
nomination process, representatives to the Congress
have been drawn from a broad spectrum of Algerian so-
ciety. The main task of the opening plenary session--
the first in 14 years--is to reconstitute the defunct
national party organization. A caucus restricted to
middle- and senior-level party officials will then
formally nominate the presidential candidate whose man-
date will be confirmed on 7 February in a general elec-
tion.//
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RHODESIA: Auxiliary Forces
Chief Chirau, one of the black coleaders in
Rhodesia's transitional government, has threatened to
boycott the national election in April if the two other
black leaders in the Executive Council do not disband
their auxiliary forces. The auxiliaries, composed
mostly of former guerrillas who have accepted the govern-
ment's amnesty program, have also become controversial
among whites who question their loyalty and the mili-
tary's ability to control their activities.
As the election approaches, however, the temptation
for Muzorewa and Sithole to use the auxiliary forces to
carve out political feifdoms and intimidate voters in
the countryside will grow stronger.
Chirau has no auxiliaries of his own and he, along
with many whites, is seriously disturbed by the threat
the auxiliary forces could pose to the credibility of
the national election. In addition, Chirau wants to
use the auxiliaries issue to offset the image he has
gained as a surrogate for Prime Minister Smith among
Rhodesia's conservative blacks.
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TURKEY: Cabinet Shakeup
//Prime Minister Ecevit's success this week in pre-
venting two more cabinet members from resigning shows
that he remains in control of the government despite
continued dissension within his Republican People's
Party. Resignations tendered by the Finance and Justice
Ministers on Tuesday came on the heels of decisions by
the Interior and Defense Ministers to quit earlier this
month. It seems clear, however, that the time of
reckoning has been merely postponed.
a eup o the cabinet in
ear y arc seems increasingly likely as Ecevt strives
to balance factional Pressures within his party.//
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SPECIAL ANALYSIS
RHODESIA: White Referendum
Prime Minister Smith is conducting a vigorous cam-
paign to ensure a positive vote on the regime's proposed
majority-rule constitution in the all-white referendum
to be held Tuesday. The constitution has come under
strong attack from several small white political groups,
but Smith still has the support of most whites and the
proposed constitution is likely to be approved by a
comfortable majority. E__ I
Smith has been barnstorming the country, particu-
larly the rural areas, telling whites that a "yes" vote
is their only rational choice. He concedes that the
constitution is not ideal, but argues that "it is the
best that we can get under the circumstances." He told
a white audience in Umtali this month that it has no
choice but to make a settlement for majority rule and
that talk of winning the war is "absolute pie in the
sk
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y
Smith also has intimated that the West, especially
the US, will recognize a multiracial government elected
under this constitution. White Cominister for Foreign
Affairs Van der Byl emphasized this last week, saying
the Rhodesian Government has given up on the UK and
will now devote its efforts to seeking a better under-
t
d
s
an
ing with political leaders in the US.
The proposed charter would give the whites more
power than was envisaged in the internal settlement
agreement reached last March. It assures them of retain-
ing 28 of the 100 seats in the lower house of the legis-
lature, a third of the upper house seats, a number of
cabinet posts, and a key role in the armed forces, police,
and judin;
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The White Opposition
The most outspoken opponent of the proposed consti-
tution is a newly formed right-wing group, "Save Our
Nation." In a series of public broadcasts, it has been
urging whites to vote "no" because approval of the con-
stitution would not bring international recognition, the
lifting of sanctions, or an end to the war. The group
draws most of its members from a small, ineffective
right-wing party, the Rhodesia Movement, and is actively
supported by the South Africa-based "Save Rhodesia" move-
ment. The Rhodesia Movement has long advocated dividing
the country into Shoma, Ndebele, and white states united
under a federal system of government and run by a Coun-
cil of State composed of four representatives from each
state.
Spokesmen from "Save our Nation" have been telling
whites that the South African military will come tb
their assistance in the struggle against the guerrillas
if the constitution is defeated. Some Rhodesia Movement
leaders have recently approached the South Africans to
seek political backing and military assistance.
Smith has also come under attack from the "Rhodesia
First Campaign," a front for the Rhodesian Action Party
and another extreme right-wing group. The organization
preaches white hegemony and the total suppress-L.On of the
guerrillas and their supporters inside the country. It
enjoys little popular support a does not pose a serious
threat to the Smith government.
The National Unifying Force, a liberal group, has
also come out against the constitution, urging a "return
to legality" under British rule and the convening of an
all-parties conference under the auspices of the Anglo-
American plan for a Rhodesian settlement. Leaders of
the group are ambivalent about the constitution and are
urging whites to abstain from voting; they believe a
"no" vote might wreck the chances for any form of black
rule while a "yes" vote would give approval to a con-
stitution that would perpetuate white domination over
blacks. The group exerts little influence in the white
community. II
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USSR-Italy
The bland communique issued yesterday at the con-
clusion of Foreign Minister Gromyko's visit to Italy
contained generalized positive references to several
arms control talks currently in progress. Pro forma
references were made to President Brezhnev and Premier
Kosygin accepting standing invitations to visit Italy at
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COMMENT: Gromyko's visit was not expected to be
dominated by significant issues, and the talks probably
did not go nearly so well as the communique would imply.
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